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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I suppose that's because most daytime showers are at least partly caused by the sun's heating of the atmosphere, so they tend to die out around late afternoon. Unless it's some organized front that happens to arrive at that time of day, in many cases this is probably something people notice in many different parts of the world. I think it is true for here as well.

    As to our ongoing forecasts ...

    Sunday, 5 July, 2009
    _____________________

    TODAY will bring some very heavy showers and thunderstorms to western Ireland at times, and hail is possible with these. Central and eastern Ireland will also get their share of thundery showers, but the heaviest activity seems likely to be in Clare, Galway and Mayo, as well as nearby parts of other western counties. Winds will pick up somewhat across most regions to about SSW 20-30 mph, and in any sunny spells the daytime high of about 15-17 C is likely to be reached.

    TONIGHT will see the heavier activity moving further east but settling down to periods of moderate rain without so much risk of thunder. Lows will be around 10 C for most places, and winds will tend to veer to westerly by morning on the southwest coast. An interval of lighter winds after midnight in Connacht and Donegal will signal the overhead passage of the low and then winds will pick up later from the northwest.

    MONDAY will continue quite unsettled although with somewhat better afternoon sunny intervals and some drying in the southwest, as much of Ireland will see passing showers or brief thundershowers on a strong westerly breeze. Highs will be around 15 to 16 C.

    TUESDAY will bring a regime of variable cloud as winds become fairly brisk from the west across Kerry and Cork, but more northwest elsewhere. A front will slide south bringing light showers, but many places could remain dry all day if rather cloudy. Lows of about 8 C will be followed by highs of 15 C (near 17 C inland south).

    WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will see a strong, cool northerly flow over Great Britain, and this will tend to clip Ulster and the east coast of Leinster with low cloud and drizzly showers. Further west there could still be a fair amount of cloud but with better sunny intervals towards the southwest, in brisk northwest to north winds. Lows will be 6-8 C and highs 13-17 C with the higher values in Munster.

    SATURDAY will become warmer with some sunny intervals and the risk of showers especially in the southwest. Highs will be around 17-20 C. SUNDAY may be fairly similar with more widespread showers developing. These fronts do not look overly strong (yet) so these rainfall amounts may be slight.

    Watch for updates especially for the western counties today.




  • Outside for most of the morning without reading here I observed 2 things.
    The wind was southeast [off the sea] and there was a huge line of cb's building inland with straight edges like knives.

    Sure enough when I come in I see what is usually a convergence zone [Mount Leinster up to the wicklow mountains] taking it's feed of showers from the south west and building them but they are not allowed within 10 to 15 miles of the coast beaten back by the southeasterly which is quite strong at above 20mph.

    Thunderstorms are inevitable today-not in every shower but in some of them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 6 July, 2009
    ________________________

    TODAY will start off partly cloudy in some parts of eastern Ireland as the calm centre of a large atmospheric disturbance drifts further east. The rest of the country has already entered the second half of this onslaught, this time from the northwest and north, as more heavy showers will slowly cover the whole country from west to east. There will be a few breaks between slow-moving and heavy showers, allowing brief sunny intervals, but when it rains, it may become torrential in places with hail and thunder thrown in. Highs are likely to be held down to about 15 or 16 C unless one or two places get extra sunshine (18 is about the highest that might occur).

    Some rainfalls of 30-40 mms are possible today, leading to flooding in a few places, and some rather intense hail and thunder could develop. Watch for updates. The southwest could see some rather strong gusts from the NW at times, reaching 35 or 40 mph in exposed locations. It will become rather breezy elsewhere too, despite the rather calm start to the day under the centre of the low.

    TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy but the heavier showers should taper off to more drizzly light rain and some places could clear for a time, leading to lows of 7 or 8 C in a gusty NW wind reaching 20-35 mph at times.

    TUESDAY will be a day of rapidly changing sky conditions and some widely scattered but sharp daytime showers, some of which could be briefly squally with hail. There will probably be longer sunny intervals in the west and south, and on the exposed west coast, some of the larger waves and swells of the recent few weeks. Winds will tend to be backing a little to westerly in Kerry and Cork for a while, ahead of a more northerly flow that develops from Ulster southward. Highs will reach about 17 C and winds will average 20-35 mph in exposed locations, 15-20 mph inland.

    WEDNESDAY (after morning lows near 7 C) looks rather cool as eastern Ireland including most of Ulster gets the outer edges of a strong northerly flow over Great Britain, and this may produce some widespread low cloud and drizzly showers, with highs near 14 or 15 C. Further west, there should be more sunshine and the south coast could have long sunny spells, although a few brief showers could also occur almost anywhere, not much accumulation however. Winds will be generally NNW about 20-30 mph over the Irish Sea and coasts, but possibly less blustery in western regions. Highs will be 16 to 18 C for these districts.

    THURSDAY (after another rather cool morning low of 7-9 C) will see gradual improvement from west to east as the cooler east coast regime is slowly replaced by the drier western ridge. Highs everywhere should recover to about 17 or 18 C.

    FRIDAY looks somewhat unsettled now, as the latest guidance has sped up the systems from what we were seeing yesterday, so it could become showery at times with highs near 18 C.

    THE WEEKEND should be a mixed bag but not as showery as this past weekend, and possibly a little above 20 C each day, at least away from the coasts.

    THE VERY LONG RANGE VIEW suggests a gradual warming trend in the following week and the next hot spell could be around the 20th or so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 422 ✭✭loup


    Looking forward to the warmer spell! What sort of weather is in your neck of the woods? Not sure what part of Canada you are in. Do you generally get hot summers there?


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I live near Vancouver on the west coast of Canada, and the climate here is fairly similar to parts of southwest Ireland or Brittany in France, except that we do tend to get a week or two of wintry cold here on a regular basis instead of every few years, and our summer is generally more sunny with a dry period that often shows up in late July and early August (the Pacific highs are stronger than the Atlantic highs in summer). If you visited here in the spring or autumn you would find the weather very similar, but I think we probably get more rain in November and December, it can really pour here for days on end.

    Of course, it's much colder than here in the rest of Canada in winter, and this is the mildest part of the country in January, the average daytime high is about 5 or 6 C. Having said all that, we had an unusually cold and snowy winter by our standards, and we have had an early start to the summer dry season, not much rain here since mid-April, which is unusual, and the grass here is more brown than green. That is often the case here by the end of July rather than late June and early July as with this year. However, it looks like rain here today for the first time in about two weeks. After about a week of unbroken sunshine it is quite gloomy this morning.

    The other detail that produces a somewhat different climate for us is the presence of higher mountains than in Ireland, these tend to make for a heavier autumn rainfall peak when we get into a parade of lows from the ocean, and there is usually snow falling instead of rain just above the limits of the urban area here, so in a colder pattern it often snows on the higher suburbs and rains near sea level.

    If you were looking at the climate about two hundred miles inland from here, it would be much more extreme in winter and summer, there are places that average 28 C for their daytime high in July and have fruit orchards and wine production.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I think I speak for all your regular readers when I commend Met Éireann to An Bord Snip as a complete waste of money ...and request that RTÉ use M.T. Craniums Irish weather forecasts all the way from Vancouver Canada instead. No more proof needed .

    I am so sick of hearing persistently inaccurate forecasts of largely Dublin weather from that shower in Glasnevin :(

    <snip>


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I should mention that Met Eireann staff were very helpful to us earlier in the year on the forecast competition when we needed some data, and I haven't formed any negative opinions myself, this project is more about getting a forecast onto the forum because it is bound to be one place people might look for one ... if it's seen to be a good thing, then that's great. But it would be unprofessional of me (if I were actually professional) to slag anyone else's work sight unseen especially.

    The problem of TV weather presentation is the same all over the world, it seems to me, you have two ways of going about it, one is to hire your own meteorologist who is at arm's length from any other sources, but the other more common (outside the USA and possibly the UK) is to go with a presenter who is fed information by the national weather agency or some private company perhaps. And that tends to involve having a more skilled communicator at the expense of a certain amount of weather understanding, so if the TV presenter seems flawed in any way it can be due to lack of complete communication from the outside source. When presenters are nubile young ladies this often seems to be the case when they first start into their careers especially, I've heard the odd reference in my time watching TV forecasts of "low fronts" and my all-time favourite, wet rain.

    But as with all things, such persons often improve rapidly on the job and figure out the first rule of public weather forecasting, which is, tell people what is going to happen in clear English (or some other language) and leave the jargon in the back room some place.

    Anyway, I really think that public forecasting is more about packaging the information than improving forecasts, and we have one advantage here that we can package up each day any way we want, then anyone can add in their thoughts, etc, so it's always a work in progress. Plus, never underestimate the sheer influence of luck. :D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Back when this thread started Met Eireann blithely forecast cool sea breezes every day and temperatures in the early 20's. This was correct in Dublin, meanwhile it was dead windless heat for days on end in the west peaking in the high 20's .

    Funny enough the BBC weather forecast for Galway ( from the same HIRLAM 48 hour model) was correct during all this time, they were predicting values of around 26c .

    Even more gallingly the BBC provides us with a generally accurate and concise 5 day forecast where the muppets in Met Éireann only provide the entire Connacht province with a useless one liner as you can see.

    But enough! , on with the good work M.T. ya legend ya !


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,904 ✭✭✭cian1500ww


    What are the chances of a dry day up till evening for the north west tomorrow ?? Really need to get the lawns mowed !!


  • Registered Users Posts: 422 ✭✭loup


    Thanks for the info on vancouver, funny I had kind of assumed temperatures there were far more extreme than here. I know Vancouver is supposed to be amazing, have lots of friends visited, would love to go myself someday!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 677 ✭✭✭darc


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    I think I speak for all your regular readers when I commend Met Éireann to An Bord Snip as a complete waste of money ...and request that RTÉ use M.T. Craniums Irish weather forecasts all the way from Vancouver Canada instead. No more proof needed .

    I am so sick of hearing persistently inaccurate forecasts of largely Dublin weather from that shower in Glasnevin

    If there's one thing I learnt at school, it was the fact that due to the geographical positioning of Ireland, we have the most difficult weather to forecast.
    I agree M.T.'s weather has been excellent, but it has had to be updated regularly to take into account changing conditions and even going back through the posts, you can see that 3days out & further, it is less accurate. No fault of MT whatsoever - its because we live in Ireland and even a 6am weather report can end up incorrect by late afternoon. The big advantage of the forecasts here is that we also get a "could happen" & "watch for updates" scenario on days that can provide changeable conditions.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 7 July, 2009
    ________________________

    TODAY there will likely be more cloud in the north and east, with light showers at times, while the west and south enjoy a little more sunshine, not unbroken but at least some of the time, although parts of Kerry may have localized showers. There will be a slight risk of showers elsewhere in western districts later, but the main feature will be a strong NW breeze of about 20 or 25 mph at times, which should help with the drying out. Highs today will be near 14 or 15 C in Ulster and most of Leinster, and 16 or 17 C in most of Connaught and Munster.

    TONIGHT will continue much the same (although minus the sun) on a regional basis, with more cloud in the north and east, and drizzly showers at times, in a northerly wind of 15-30 mph. Further west and across most of the south it will be partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows in most places will be about 7 or 8 C.

    WEDNESDAY will see eastern counties under considerable amounts of low cloud with local showers or drizzle, and a brisk northerly breeze of 15-25 mph, with highs near 14 C. Further west, most of central and western Ireland should see more sun, especially some far western districts, and also the wind will be less brisk there although still from a northerly direction. Highs on the west coast should be about 18 C with central parts of Ireland near 16 or 17 C.

    THURSDAY will be similar to the above although the eastern cloud may begin to break up into longer sunny intervals by afternoon. Otherwise, the range of temperatures should be similar to Wednesday, between 7 and 16 C.

    FRIDAY could start out sunny in the eastern half of Ireland but there is a risk of some showery rains moving into the southwest before late afternoon and spreading further north and east by evening. It will also be a little warmer (lows of 8-9 C and highs of 18-19 C).

    THE WEEKEND still looks unsettled but not all that bad, some passing showers, one or two of them thundery, but some sunny intervals, and fairly warm at about 20 or 21 C. Winds will be from a SW to W direction and could become rather gusty near the west coast at times.

    NEXT WEEK looks like a fairly average sort of mid-July situation with a trend towards much warmer weather later on towards the following weekend (as usual, confidence on this far out is limited, but it fits the recent trend of warmer weather about every four weeks lasting about a week to ten days).

    If other forum members would like to update especially on locations of any showers developing, that would be great, as yours truly will definitely be asleep on the job shortly. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 8 July, 2009
    ___________________________

    TODAY will start out quite cloudy and drizzly in some parts, notably Kerry and parts of Cork as a weak wave pushes through to the south. By later morning some of the western low cloud will be clearing to reveal at least some sunshine, but cloud may prove rather stubborn all day in the north and east, although there could be some narrow breaks here and there. Winds will be strongest over the Irish Sea at NNW 20-35 mph, and fairly light from the same direction in the inland central and western districts. The west coast will be a little breezier though. Highs today will average about 16 C in the east and could touch 18 or 19 in any western districts that get enough sunshine.

    TONIGHT will see more general clearing except for some stubborn cloud in parts of Ulster (except Donegal) and perhaps Dublin to Wicklow east of the hills. The cloud there could keep overnight lows up around 9 or 10 C, otherwise, clear spots could drop as low as 6 or 7 C in various other districts. Winds will drop off to quite light or calm away from the coasts.

    THURSDAY will bring fairly decent sunshine in most places, but there will be one or two eastern locations that may remain cloudy for most of the morning. Highs will be generally about 17 or 18 C. Winds will drop off to fairly light northerlies over the Irish Sea and will tend to be governed by local sea breezes around the country generally.

    FRIDAY morning will be clear and cool again, with lows perhaps 6 or 7 C in the usual cold spots, no higher than about 10 C generally. Then cloud will move in rather quickly from the southwest, allowing sunshine past mid-day only in the northeast. By afternoon it could be raining fairly steadily in parts of Munster with a gusty SSW wind developing. This will rise to gale force by evening and overnight (on present indications, stay tuned). Highs for the day will be generally near 18 C in the east but could hit about 16 C then fall back in the rainy west.

    SATURDAY will probably see considerable updating as there are indications of a rather stormy period early in the day sweeping through with strong winds and heavy showers, possibly a rumble or two of thunder, winds SSW 30-40 mph in exposed locations becoming more SW 20-30 later. Temperatures will be near 14 C with this frontal system from early morning to mid-day, then in some areas could rise a little with any afternoon clearing, but it may remain cloudy and wet in the east most of the day. Expect this weather event to receive its own thread on the forum so further details may be available there.

    SUNDAY should be improved over Saturday as most of the rain and cloud will move further east and north and leave only far northern Ulster with a large risk of rain, however, there could be brief passing showers in some western districts too. It will be warmer with highs reaching perhaps 21 or 22 C away from the cooler south and west coasts where strong SW breezes will be blowing in with fairly large swells and waves.

    NEXT WEEK will start out with another showery period and then indications point to a warmer, drier regime trying to set up, but with some tendency to cloud spreading in from the south and so there would be a slight risk of rain in the south at times during this warmer spell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Wednesday, 8 July, 2009 _ 5 pm
    ________________________________

    Just an update mostly about the developments for Friday night and Saturday. First, expect a fairly pleasant evening near the west coast as the sun moves around to the western part of the sky that has already cleared, then the clouds begin to diminish overhead. No such luck for the eastern half of the country, in most places, and there remains a bit of drizzle from the low-hanging stratus deck. I would imagine the north-facing sides of some higher hills will be foggy above about 400 metres. Overnight there should be further clearing but it will be slow to reach the east coast, perhaps during the mid-morning hours. Tomorrow should be a pleasant day, unless you happen to be in the one or two spots that retain some low cloud cover. I imagine there will be a fair amount of higher cloud in long streaks making the sky quite interesting, but the sun will shine through all that for most of the time.

    Friday, it looks as though the rain is going to move in fairly quickly from about sunrise in Kerry, to mid-day in a line from about Galway to Waterford, to afternoon in Dublin and evening in Ulster. Once it arrives, it may slacken off to a drizzly light rain after a while, because a second wave will form further out into the Atlantic on Friday night, and race in behind to provide a second surge of heavier rain. This second wave will hit after midnight in the southwest and through the morning hours elsewhere, and it could become quite squally and thundery in places. Total rainfalls in the two-stage event may reach 30 mms in places. There is even the risk of locally severe storms developing, as a cold front slices into the warm, humid air. Temperatures may not soar very high near the surface but it will be quite warm (relatively speaking) at higher elevations in the atmosphere. From the present guidance, the most likely place for any severe weather would be something like north Cork county to Laois to Dublin. So this will be an interesting situation, especially with it being a Saturday and no doubt a lot of events planned outdoors. Sunday still looks to be the much better of the two days of the weekend.

    I wouldn't be surprised if a thread starts up about the weekend weather and you will find additional insights there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,290 ✭✭✭gonker


    Thanks for that MT.. There is a massive music festival on this weekend in Kildare from what you say that will be in the firing line yes :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 9 July, 2009
    _______________________

    Advance alert for strong winds and heavy rainfalls in many parts of Ireland on Saturday.

    TODAY will start out cloudy except for some areas near Galway where the sun is breaking through the overcast. Later on, there is some hope for sunny intervals in a narrow band running from about Galway and Mayo southeast to about Waterford. The cloud to the east of this looks fairly locked in until perhaps mid-afternoon for some breaks, and the cloud to the west is the forerunner of a large complex storm well to the south that will slowly push closer to Ireland overnight. This cloud advancing from the south is mainly higher but a few areas of patchy drizzle have developed over southwestern mountains. Some parts of Ulster meanwhile have leftover showers from the departing cloud. Highs today should average about 17 C and most places will remain dry.

    TONIGHT will continue to see the cloud breaking up slowly in eastern Ireland as the western cloud slowly advances to about a line from Galway to Waterford, with some light rain possible in Kerry at times. Lows will average near 10 C but could fall to 7 C in any clear spots around counties from about Roscommon to Laois.

    FRIDAY will see a mild, humid southerly flow with light rain or drizzle becoming widespread and a few heavier bursts of rain possible in the south and west. Parts of east Leinster and Ulster could have some morning sunshine before this cloud spreads in. Highs will be near 18 C.

    FRIDAY NIGHT will become windy and wet as southerly winds begin to increase in coastal southern and southwestern counties first, to 20-35 mph. A driving rain is likely to spread across most areas of Ireland by morning, and temperatures will be steady between 11 and 13 C.

    SATURDAY will become windy in all other regions, and the heavy rain (amounting to 30-40 mms in places) will slowly move northeast with some thundery showers embedded. Winds will be generally S 20-35 mph but could reach 30-45 mph in coastal areas (Mayo and Donegal more ESE at first). By mid to late afternoon, a risk of heavy to locally severe thunderstorms will arise in a region running from about Shannon to Dublin (but including most of the inland southeast). Some late afternoon clearing may develop in Kerry and Cork, and by then it will feel quite warm and humid in the southwest, but elsewhere the highs will be fortunate to reach 16 or 17 C (could touch 20 C in the southwest).

    SATURDAY NIGHT will continue quite unsettled and windy, as the heavier showers drive through Ulster, followed by variable skies and a few more showers in a brisk SSW wind of 25-40 mph. There could be a period of stronger winds in Galway, Mayo and Donegal from a more westerly direction later. Lows will be about 13 or 14 C.

    SUNDAY will be somewhat improved with at least some sunny intervals but still the risk of some heavy or thundery showers in a steady SW wind of about 15-30 mph (still remaining more windy in the northwest). Highs will be around 20 to 22 C.

    MONDAY is now looking quite unsettled again as the weekend storm makes a tight loop and comes back around to have a second round of fun with your summer. At this point it looks like a fairly widespread rainfall of about 15-20 mms again, with mostly cloudy skies all day and warm, humid conditions, highs near 18 to 20 C.

    TUESDAY will see the last stages of this system moving through slowly, bringing another 5-10 mms of rain and mostly cloudy skies, highs near 17 C.

    There should be some improvement later in the week before a warming trend develops by late next week, but some earlier indications of a warm, dry spell and looking more unsettled now. Time for this to improve again, though.

    :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭kerry1960


    Thanks for the heads up MT;) , better dig out the lawnmower then :rolleyes: ,
    today could be my last chance for some time :(.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 10 July, 2009
    ________________________

    Things may have slowed down very slightly for the Saturday rainfall event, but otherwise the forecast guidance remains about the same. Therefore this forecast will tend to repeat the previous one, with some edited sections to reflect the slower development (it is a matter of a few hours at most) ...

    TODAY will see a mild, humid southerly flow with light rain or drizzle becoming widespread and a few heavier bursts of rain possible in the south and west. However, parts of east Leinster and Ulster could have some morning sunshine before this cloud spreads in, and it could remain dry all day in parts of Ulster. Highs will be near 18 C to possibly 20 C in some sunnier parts of the east.

    FRIDAY NIGHT will become windy and wet as southerly winds begin to increase in coastal southern and southwestern counties first, to 20-35 mph, although this should be a little after midnight even in Kerry. A driving rain is likely to spread across most southwestern areas of Ireland by morning, and temperatures will be steady between 11 and 13 C.

    SATURDAY will gradually become windy in all other regions, and the heavy rain (amounting to 30-40 mms in places) will slowly move northeast with some thundery showers embedded. Winds will be generally S 20-35 mph but could reach 30-45 mph in coastal areas (Mayo and Donegal more ESE at first). By mid to late afternoon, a risk of heavy to locally severe thunderstorms will arise in a region running from about Shannon to Dublin (but including most of the inland southeast). Some late afternoon clearing may develop in Kerry and Cork, and by then it will feel quite warm and humid in the southwest, but elsewhere the highs will be fortunate to reach 16 or 17 C (could touch 20 C in the southwest).

    SATURDAY NIGHT will continue quite unsettled and windy, as the heavier showers drive through Ulster, followed by variable skies and a few more showers in a brisk SSW wind of 25-40 mph. There could be a period of stronger winds in Galway, Mayo and Donegal from a more westerly direction later. Lows will be about 13 or 14 C.

    SUNDAY will be somewhat improved with at least some sunny intervals but still the risk of some heavy or thundery showers in a steady SW wind of about 15-30 mph (still remaining more windy in the northwest). Highs will be around 20 to 22 C.

    MONDAY is now looking quite unsettled again as the weekend storm makes a tight loop and comes back around to have a second round of fun with your summer. At this point it looks like a fairly widespread rainfall of about 15-20 mms again, with mostly cloudy skies all day and warm, humid conditions, highs near 18 to 20 C.

    TUESDAY will see the decaying centre of this system moving through slowly, bringing another 5-10 mms of rain and mostly cloudy skies, highs near 18 C.

    WEDNESDAY will have further showers and highs near 17 C, and THURSDAY will bring cooler conditions and northerly winds with showers, highs near 15 C.

    There should be some improvement around Friday, then another round of unsettled weather by the weekend.

    Watch for updates on the Saturday rainfall and wind event, as future model runs may have a different timing again on this developing system. The low expected to be off the west coast late Saturday is now just getting organized out around the middle of the Atlantic near 30 W.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 11 July, 2009
    _________________________

    Alert for locally heavy rainfalls of about 30 mms and strong southerly winds gusting to 35 or 40 mph later today ... it looks quite dangerous for hill climbing or sailing today due to both the winds and the poor visibility especially at altitudes above 200 metres as well as over the south coastal waters in fog.


    TODAY will start out rather misty and cloudy in most regions, as heavy rain sweeps into the southwest during the morning, to cover all of Ireland fairly quickly (about mid-day for Dublin and early afternoon for Ulster). Once this rain arrives, winds will increase to about SE to S 20-35 mph, with local gusts to 40 or even 45 mph. The rain may become thundery at times (especially in the east central parts of Ireland) and we will be monitoring any potential for severe thunderstorms to form near the end of the rainfall event. Rain should end by mid-afternoon in Kerry, and by evening in the southern and western parts of Ireland. The sun could then come out for a brief interval and winds will swing around to SW 20-30 mph with some higher gusts.

    Highs today will be around 16 C in the rain and 18-20 C in the southwest after the rain finishes.

    TONIGHT will continue showery mainly in Ulster and parts of the east and southeast, with intervals of rain sweeping through Mayo and Donegal close to the swerving low heading up the west coast. This may be accompanied by a brief period of strong westerly winds there. Elsewhere it is likely to be more of a steady SW wind and some clear intervals in a mostly cloudy night, with a few isolated showers still left over. It will be rather warm with a low of about 12 to 14 C in the northwest, and 14 to 16 C in the southeast.

    SUNDAY looks somewhat better, with more isolated and short-lived showers or thundershowers, some of which could prove rather heavy, but also there may be some longer sunny intervals and it will be rather warm with highs of about 20 to 22 C. Winds will average SW 15-30 mph.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY will be showery, mostly cloudy days with the risk of further heavy rainfalls developing. Highs will be near 18 C and morning lows about 13 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be drizzly or showery with mostly cloudy skies and highs near 16 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY may see some longer sunny intervals, still the risk of a few showers, and drier humidity levels. Highs will be near 17 C.

    Watch for updates and more detailed info on today's rain, wind and potential storm activity ... both here and in other threads on the forum.


  • Registered Users Posts: 903 ✭✭✭bernardo mac


    Sterling work MT Thank you!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 86 ✭✭kimberworth


    Spot on .... thanks


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 37 Wella


    Excellent work again MT. Thanks.:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 12 July, 2009
    _______________________

    TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with some passing showers in most places, one or two possibly becoming heavy around mid-day. With any sunshine temperatures should recover to about 21 C inland, 17 C near the west coast and in most of Ulster. Winds will subside where currently still strong, to SSW 20-30 mph then backing to S 15-20 mph.

    TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy and quite mild with a few more showers, possibly turning to a steady rain in some western parts after midnight, with lows of about 13 C.

    MONDAY will be cloudy with showers or longer periods of rain, high humidity values, and temperatures steady in the range of 15 to 18 C.

    TUESDAY will also be cloudy with periods of rain, and some thundery showers could develop, with lows near 13 C and highs near 16 C.

    WEDNESDAY is likely to see a slightly cooler northwesterly flow but it will otherwise be similar, with cloud and light rain, lows near 11 C and highs near 15 or 16 C.

    THURSDAY is looking partly cloudy with showers and highs once again near 16 or 17 C.

    FRIDAY could become quite breezy as the persistent low tries to make another pass at Ireland (the third one by this time) and this could bring strong westerly winds and sharp showers, with highs near 17 C.

    Will update some time later on, as this pattern does not look fully resolved yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,975 ✭✭✭nkay1985


    Munster final day in Thurles. I really hope you're not wrong about it only being passing showers!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Sunday, 1245h
    ___________________

    Radar indicates that some of the heavier showers may be thundery with brief intervals of hail. As luck would have it, one cluster is just to the south of Thurles (but heading northeast) so they may at least hear the distant thunder from that. A stronger cell appears south of Athlone heading for Westmeath and this one could impact on the weather station at Mullingar to give some idea of how strong it is, probably about 15 mms of rain in half an hour sort of a thing ... but these heavier showers are only covering about 5% of the country at the most, so your chances of seeing one in any given place are low, unless you're in the path of one already up and running. A few more appear to be forming over Kerry at this time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Sunday, 10 p.m.
    _______________________

    Some rather heavy bursts of rain indicated on radar just to the east of Cork (city) at the moment, heading towards south central counties. This is probably a process that will begin to develop on a larger scale later tonight and through Monday as the low which raced past Ireland on Saturday night takes a tight turn in a counter-clockwise direction and heads back in for a second look -- and this time it will probably release whatever moisture is left from the first visit, Monday night and Tuesday could turn quite wet again and in the next full forecast we may be looking at another heavy rainfall alert, there is some chance of 30-50 mm rainfalls with this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 13 July, 2009
    _______________________

    TODAY will start out dry in most of eastern Ireland, with a few brief sunny intervals possible, despite mainly cloudy skies. Moderate to heavy rain has moved into western counties already and will make slow progress further east to cover central Ireland by mid-day. Some of this rain could become thundery at times, with rainfalls of 20-30 mms. Highs will reach 18 to 20 C. The rain is likely to arrive in eastern Ireland by afternoon or early evening, although there could be earlier brief showers ahead of the main event. When the rain ends in western counties, the sun may come out briefly, but another area of cloud and rain will be approaching by evening.

    TONIGHT will see the central to eastern counties under a steady rainfall bringing 10-20 mms, ending with fog and drizzle, but western counties will then see some more rain moving in from the Atlantic. Winds will become rather strong in the southwest, from a S to SE direction, backing to the east later. Lows tonight will be about 12 to 14 C.

    TUESDAY will see further rain, possibly heavy at times, and thundery in a few spots. Highs will be around 17 to 19 C. Any strong winds are likely to diminish as the low weakens, but not before it drops another 15-25 mms of rain in places. The wet period in general could lead to some flooding as this Tuesday rainfall may tend to push high water levels over the flood stage.

    WEDNESDAY will see a bit of improvement as the weakening low drifts off to the east, leaving mainly low cloud and drizzle or light rain, possibly followed by a few sunny intervals by late afternoon (mainly in the west). Lows of about 12 C will be followed by highs of about 15 to 17 C.

    THURSDAY is looking slightly better, partly cloudy with only isolated showers, and highs near 18 C.

    FRIDAY could see another period of moderate to heavy rain, with highs near 15 or 16 C.

    NEXT WEEKEND has some potential to become wet and windy yet again, but also somewhat warmer air may be moving in, so the details may continue to evolve, there could in fact be a similar event to the past weekend ... the best bet at present is to expect unsettled weather in general. It may be well into the following week before any high pressure or really warm conditions appear in the mix.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,783 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    The rainfall radar is showing the rain coming up from the South & only affecting the West. But because of the circulation it's hard to know what is out of sight & on the way !


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,975 ✭✭✭nkay1985


    Milling out of the heavens here in Waterford.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,756 ✭✭✭✭JPA


    nkay1985 wrote: »
    Milling out of the heavens here in Waterford.

    Torrential at the moment in Waterford again.


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