Tropical disturbance 96S located north northeast of Saint Brandon.
Conditions are generally favorable and should allow this system to gradually intensify in the coming days. It could reach the stage of tropical depression in the next 12 to 24 hours. At 4 p.m. it was analyzed at the tropical disturbance stage by the Navy, bordering on the tropical depression stage. We can see on the that convection has intensified for a few hours even if the satellite presentation remains elongated and still poorly defined.
➡️ The models direct this system in the general direction of the area located just to the south-east of Mauritius.
However, there has been a slight shift towards the east of the average trajectory of the models since this morning, which means that if these simulations were verified the system could pass a little further off Mauritius than envisaged yesterday.
But nothing is less certain. The models are fluctuating which is normal because the exact positioning of the center which currently remains wide and still poorly defined is not yet precise. This can distort the simulations of trajectories upon arrival.
Once the system is better organized, probably tomorrow, confidence in the forecast should increase considerably.