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View Poll Results: What impact will the sun's deep minima have on the future climate?
Climate getting progressively cooler through next solar cycles 284 43.23%
No impact 143 21.77%
Global warming is here to stay 124 18.87%
Calm before the solar storm of 2012-2013 106 16.13%
Voters: 657. You may not vote on this poll

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02-01-2020, 01:42   #856
dolanbaker
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Yes, I am also of the opinion that a Dalton type minimum is more likely, and not just because it is the maternal family name.
The 200 year pattern looks like it's repeating rather than the 400 year one that is less detailed due to it being based on reconstructions as opposed to actual observations.
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04-01-2020, 09:38   #857
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"Rather similar timing and cadence in all three cases (so far with the recent one). Also similar -- Tamboro's eruption at weak peak April 1815 and Krakatoa in 1883. Although different peaks in the analogy, seems like quite a coincidence and one wonders what might erupt in 2025 as we have dodged this bullet of a major dust veil producer thus far in the recent minimum"

The next eruption I think will occur around then or possibly before will be Katla. It is over due anyhow.
Not sure if it will be big enough to effect on a global scale but certainly our neck of the woods.
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05-01-2020, 23:10   #858
SeaBreezes
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Looking at Dr. Ned Nikolov twitter I see:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NikolovScience/status/1213553938798006272

He says:
The predicted solar grand minimum around 2050 is not likely to have a TSI reduction of 8 W m-2, but 1.5-2 W m-2 is possible.
A key point to remember is that TSI changes only slightly affect Global Temp., because the temp. sensitivity to TSI is just 0.053 K/(W m-2).

Last edited by SeaBreezes; 05-01-2020 at 23:20.
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06-01-2020, 00:52   #859
SeaBreezes
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https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019...e-24/#comments
The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one.
The new research was led by Irina Kitiashvili, a researcher with the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute at NASA’s Ames Research Center, in California’s Silicon Valley

(Though they got the last cycle prediction spectacularly wrong)
There's an interesting discussion in the comments section..

Leif Svalgaard predicted that cycle 25 would be higher than 24, but lower than cycle 20.

And I've already posted Zharakovas prediction..

Last edited by SeaBreezes; 06-01-2020 at 01:11.
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13-01-2020, 08:36   #860
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Confirmation bias ahead but has there been an upswing in volcanic eruptions this past few months? Or just been reported on more?
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24-01-2020, 12:40   #861
BLIZZARD7
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After a flurry of activity early in the year the Sun has gone all quiet again -

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 13 days
2020 total: 16 days (67%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 24 Jan 2020
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26-01-2020, 12:06   #862
dolanbaker
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Just a little reminder that we are still in the transition phase between cycles.


spaceweather.com




Quote:
TWO SOLAR CYCLES ACTIVE AT ONCE: Today, there are two active regions on the surface of the sun, places where strong magnetic fields are bubbling up from below. The magnetic polarity of the regions reveals something interesting: Two solar cycles are active at once. One region belongs to old Solar Cycle 24, the other to new Solar Cycle 25. This is normal. Solar cycles always overlap at their boundaries. It's just the latest sign that change is occurring on the sun. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
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07-03-2020, 08:29   #863
damino
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34 continous days without sunspots. 50 days so far this year.
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07-03-2020, 09:05   #864
Mad_Lad
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So is the sun waking up at all then ?
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07-03-2020, 12:39   #865
dolanbaker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad_Lad View Post
So is the sun waking up at all then ?
Yes it is, cycle 25 is revving up in the background.
Over the past few months, there have been several cycle 25 sunspots, but they are very weak. Cycle 24 is still throwing up the odd sunspot from time to time as well because there is an overlap of several years that matches the solar minimum.
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08-03-2020, 16:04   #866
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A new sunspot from cycle 25 has appeared.
I suspect that many of these smaller ones wouldn't have been recorded during the Maunder minimum.
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08-03-2020, 17:08   #867
Mad_Lad
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dolanbaker View Post
A new sunspot from cycle 25 has appeared.
I suspect that many of these smaller ones wouldn't have been recorded during the Maunder minimum.
Would they have had the ability to see in such detail as they have today ? could have easily been missed.
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26-03-2020, 07:39   #868
bazlers
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Dolanbaker, do you think sunspots will kick into action soon or are will likely to see repeat of 2019?
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26-03-2020, 09:20   #869
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I expect that we will see the odd small sunspot from the next cycle from time to time, if the predictions are correct there will be more than last year, but only just.
All the indications so far seem to show that cycle 25 will be far weaker than cycle 24.

As it is, we've matched the percentage of spotless days as last year now.

Quote:
Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 26 Mar 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 16 days
2020 total: 66 days (77%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
EDIT: current forecast from NOAA
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar...orecast-update


Quote:
Solar Cycle 25 Forecast Update
published: Monday, December 09, 2019 22:30 UTC

The NOAA/NASA co-chaired, international panel to forecast Solar Cycle 25 released their latest forecast for Solar Cycle 25. The forecast consensus: a peak in July, 2025 (+/- 8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of 115. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24.

Additionally, the panel concurred that solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months). If the solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the 7th longest on record (11.4 years).
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29-03-2020, 12:05   #870
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Well we're now in the most spotless year of the space age, according to the way spaceweather.com records the sunspots anyway.

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 29 Mar 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 19 days
2020 total: 69 days (78%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 29 Mar 2020
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