Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Technical Discussion

Nqp15hhu · 09-02-2021 3:00pm

nacho libre wrote: »

But it's kind of pointless when the next push will bring in milder weather anyway. So we get a slight delay, but without a decent snowfall due to the front decaying. We need a big upgrade tonight, but rarely when there has been a sudden flip at this range to a milder outlook, do the models flip back the other way.

But what’s the point in having wet slushy snow that will melt immediately and be replaced with wind and rain.

I am sick to the bone teeth of wind and rain. I don’t care if this system doesn’t reach me.

average_runner · 09-02-2021 3:16pm

Roll on the summer

nacho libre · 09-02-2021 4:10pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

But what’s the point in having wet slushy snow that will melt immediately and be replaced with wind and rain.

I am sick to the bone teeth of wind and rain. I don’t care if this system doesn’t reach me.

I agree. I was more so thinking of a significant snowfall that did not turn to rain after a few hours. It's very doubtful there will be an upgrade to the extent that the cold air wins out and pushes the milder air out. With this in mind I am sceptical of the cold hanging on in the east till Sunday, either way for those of us further west it's just more cold rain and perhaps flooding to be concerned about over the weekend

Slashermcguirk · 09-02-2021 4:10pm

A further update at 3pm on Met Éireann website and they are still going with snow until potentially Saturday for the east and north. They seem really set on that now as that’s the third update having presumably seen the most recent models. Mentions of consistent additional accumulations in the north, east and midlands

sicknotexi · 09-02-2021 4:24pm

I'm hoping the GEM has the best handle on this. It seems pretty unlikely but no harm in hoping.

Squidvicious · 09-02-2021 4:28pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

A further update at 3pm on Met Éireann website and they are still going with snow until potentially Saturday for the east and north. They seem really set on that now as that’s the third update having presumably seen the most recent models. Mentions of consistent additional accumulations in the north, east and midlands

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast
It's worth adding that they are quite clear about continuing snow in the Eastern half of Ireland until Friday night. That keeps the South East in snow until then, if that forecast verifies. After that, it's more along the lines of the cold staying in the North, East and Midlands and later the cold becomes restricted to North Leinster and Ulster. So possibly a very slow, North Eastward spread of milder air.
I'm still very cautious about making any call on what will happen on Thursday. I'm in the South East and while I'm very hopeful of seeing snow, I won't be at all surprised either if we have little and quickly transition to rain or even if the precipitation doesn't reach us at all.

Cloudio9 · 09-02-2021 4:40pm

bazlers wrote: »

Couldnt agree more its the GOAT of all let downs.

No the GOAT was around 2008 I think when they announced the schools were closing for 2 days and it all changed verrrrry late, like hours before the event is how I remember it.

Kermit.de.frog · 09-02-2021 4:47pm

GFS pretty much as you were.

ICON similar to it's earlier run as well but remains determined for an event on Saturday

Squidvicious · 09-02-2021 4:49pm

https://www.met.ie/warnings/thursday
Just spotted this warning on Met Eireann website(though it's been their since this morning). They're talking about 5cm of snow which surprises me a little, bearing in mind that the precipitation is expected to remain as snow for many areas away from the West and South. I would have thought that frontal snow ought to give a bit more than that. Generally 1mm of rain will produce 10mm of snow. So if we only see 5cm of snow, that suggests only 5mm of rain(assuming my calculation is correct and also assuming that I am explaining myself properly;)).

Kermit.de.frog · 09-02-2021 4:57pm

So the situation is that both GFS and ICON agree on a potential snow event on Saturday in the eastern half of the country.

GFS remains much more significant for Thursday/Friday too

60-574UK.GIF?09-12

Those who think this is over it evidently isn't.

davidsr20 · 09-02-2021 5:01pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So the situation is that both GFS and ICON agree on a potential snow event on Saturday in the eastern half of the country.

GFS remains much more significant for Thursday/Friday too

Those who think this is over it evidently isn't.

Was never here for us in the west

squarecircles · 09-02-2021 5:03pm

squarecircles · 09-02-2021 5:04pm

plenty of snow there for mayo, about 12 hours

falling during daylight so we should get to see it before the atlantic lets off a warm moist fart and melts it on friday.

Kermit.de.frog · 09-02-2021 5:10pm

A triple crown for the GFS - Sunday too

120-574UK.GIF?09-12

Donegal Ken · 09-02-2021 5:12pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

A further update at 3pm on Met Éireann website and they are still going with snow until potentially Saturday for the east and north. They seem really set on that now as that’s the third update having presumably seen the most recent models. Mentions of consistent additional accumulations in the north, east and midlands

Meath Éireann only update the forecast for that range once a day. Don't expect any more updates on there forecast until tomorrow morning when the Harmonie will have Thursday and early Friday in its range of 54hrs.

Calibos · 09-02-2021 5:19pm

Based on the latest charts posted by Kermit, if we managed the 10cm Thursday/Friday on the Seafront in Bray, I would ironically have received the most snow down here since 1987. Highly IMBY of course as the rest of Bray got much more than 10cm in 2010 and 2018. Seafront though hasn't seen more than 10cm since ‘87.

ie. the next few days still has the potential to be a record breaker for me.....literally in my back yard though.

Captain Snow · 09-02-2021 5:21pm

A very strange set up. We have Cold Easterly originating in Siberia going all the way to the East Coast of Canada.

Its all down to that Poxy Low Pressure if we get Epic Snow or Irish Type Snow.

I wish it would feck off in to North Africa.:P

Nqp15hhu · 09-02-2021 5:21pm

So the cold is staying on until Sunday then. That’s no downgrade.

Calibos · 09-02-2021 5:29pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

So the cold is staying on until Sunday then. That’s no downgrade.

Seems like they don't call it a rollercoaster for nothin’ !!

Supercell · 09-02-2021 5:29pm

Calibos wrote: »

Based on the latest charts posted by Kermit, if we managed the 10cm Thursday/Friday on the Seafront in Bray, I would ironically have received the most snow down here since 1987. Highly IMBY of course as the rest of Bray got much more than 10cm in 2010 and 2018. Seafront though hasn't seen more than 10cm since ‘87.

ie. the next few days still has the potential to be a record breaker for me.....literally in my back yard though.

Here's hoping Calibos! Not holding my breath though hoping for a pleasant surprise, don't think we are cold enough for a repeat of 2018 or before this time at least being so close to the sea in our areas.

Slashermcguirk · 09-02-2021 5:29pm

I think we can safely say at this point that nobody knows how the next 3-4 days will pan out. The models are chopping and changing so much that it feels like anything could happen. Wouldn’t surprise me if the models flip again

I am looking forward to it, the uncertainty might lend to some nice surprises for many and heartbreak for others.

Cluedo Monopoly · 09-02-2021 5:32pm

Why does Clare seem to avoid all the snow in the model photos?

Calibos · 09-02-2021 5:38pm

Supercell wrote: »

Here's hoping Calibos! Not holding my breath though hoping for a pleasant surprise, don't think we are cold enough for a repeat of 2018 or before this time at least being so close to the sea in our areas.

2018 was a literal washout for Bray Seafront anyway. We had about 5-6cm from a streamer a day or two before Emma but Emmas gales brought in Maritime air and/or salty sea spray and near the Seafront it was melting my snow as quickly as it fell. After emma was over we had 5-6cm of dirty slushy crap instead of the previous 5-6cm of nice dry snow.

Theres a reason I took no photo’s in 2018 :rolleyes:

(Didn't take any after the streamer because I expected those I took post Emma to be so much better)

Arduach · 09-02-2021 5:43pm

The weather forum is always a bit manic on borderline snow events.

I think covid lockdown has people really on edge this time. At the end of the day Met Eireann are best to go by, not BBC etc. They have most of the data for us and more experts analysing it than anywhere else in Ireland. Not dismissing all the talented and knowledgeable individuals but when you put a more experts together it's generally better.

Jimjay · 09-02-2021 5:44pm

Where i am in Wicklow town (away from the seafront) we got nothing before Emma. Emma dumped loads of snow. Drifts over 60cm and a good few inches everywhere else. Didn't take long to melt away afterwards though and snow after emma melted before it hit the ground.

esposito · 09-02-2021 5:48pm

Calibos wrote: »

Seems like they don't call it a rollercoaster for nothin’ !!

This is a true rollercoaster. Possibly the best one in years

YanSno · 09-02-2021 5:52pm

Another downgrade from ICON, as the front reaches Ballina to south Dublin it breaks and dissipates. South of that will have some accumulations. Even the 5cm accumulations forecast from earlier is now in doubt. For the weekend it looks to be the same story, models over doing it again not much precipitation.

Billcarson · 09-02-2021 5:58pm

When it comes to cold spells its always best to take each day as it comes. Sometimes ignorance is bliss lol

yourdeadwright · 09-02-2021 5:59pm

YanSno wrote: »

Another downgrade from ICON, as the front reaches Ballina to south Dublin it breaks and dissipates. South of that will have some accumulations. Even the 5cm accumulations forecast from earlier is now in doubt. For the weekend it looks to be the same story, models over doing it again not much precipitation.

Is that just for today or do we still expect snow on Thursday in Dublin

cfresident · 09-02-2021 5:59pm

YanSno wrote: »

Another downgrade from ICON, as the front reaches Ballina to south Dublin it breaks and dissipates. South of that will have some accumulations. Even the 5cm accumulations forecast from earlier is now in doubt. For the weekend it looks to be the same story, models over doing it again not much precipitation.

Really? Icon is showing 30cms for Dublin in the next 5 days on Windy app, this tallies with the GFS also.

Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Technical Discussion

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