FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Fitzo123 wrote: »

To my untrained eye, that looks 2010 esque...

yes, it looks similar to 2010 but less extreme. still in FI though so it isn't likely to happen (but I'd say there's a greater than average chance of the chart being onto something)

I dont know chaps but i cant see the heights in the Aantic holding. Im a bit concerned now.

Gonzo wrote: »

GEM finally starting to get in line with something colder.

Trend is our friend. Can’t wait to see the gladiator “hold” meme and of course the Ned Stark “Winter is coming”. I know we’ve a few days to be a bit more certain and we’ve all seen those beautiful charts melt away to nothing even as close as 2 days away but I still love the polar coaster ride.

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Looks lovely but the 850 level Temps on this chart are no great shakes, cold but not bitterly so. The trend is good but I'm not on board yet.

the cold uppers are on their way on that chart, would've been nice to see a day 11 chart! brilliant runs this evening, it'll be interesting to see MT's thoughts in his forecast tomorrow.

That aside, the ECM is also showing a risk of snow for parts of the country on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

It's great to see the GEM finally coming on board. This model was having none of it up until today. It seems the main models are starting to work from the same script. If these charts were within 48 hours, right now i'd be like this guy:

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I knows its the CFS but it now shows cold weather from 18 to 25 December, with steamers up to and including Christmas day, followed by a repeat of March 2018 from Stephen's day onwards! See for example:-



Just the usual boring -14 uppers down here.....

In defence of the cfs, see my post above from 14 days ago.....

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

In defence of the cfs, see my post above from 14 days ago.....

To be fair it does get it right sometimes. If i'm not mistaken, it also was right about the 2018 cold spell.

Broken clock is right twice a day and all that

leahyl wrote: »

Anniversary yesterday of one of the best days of my life, it snowed down so heavy and I looked out my living room window and watched as cars got stranded driving up my road :-D watching that snow on the week before Christmas - heaven!

Remember it well. We had friends over for dinner, had Xmas fm playing, and we drank ourselves silly watching snow out the window listening to Xmas songs.....

US2 wrote: »

I know it's a bit of fun for ye, but it's genuinely baffling how experienced weather enthusiasts get excited at these charts. I remember last winter snow or severe cold was two weeks away every almost every single run.

Has anyone noticed if there is a difference in the long range accuracy in summer and winter? I have zero weather forecasting knowledge but from these threads it feels it shows and gets wrong alot more cold in winter than heat in summer?

Yes, some people get excited by the charts, it's a small sign. 1 chart in winter says "snow & cold" it's a sign depending on the chart. 2/3 charts start agreeing and more people get excited. The main charts fall into agreement in a smaller timeline (96 hours or nothing for me ) and we have a mass fall in of people in the weather forum asking "Will it snow in my back garden".

It still doesn't mean it is going to snow, certainly not on the first chart from the GEM 240 hours out (could happen though). There are certain social media pages in Ireland & their websites that push a click, like and share narrative. These statements from click bate websites should be approached like a meeting with Donald Trump or trying to take your mother-in-laws underwear off with your teeth. Just don't even think about it!

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Not liking the ECM as much this morning. Are we cold lovers going to be heartbroken again?

Any post I see you from you is negative, do you ever have a positive thing to say? Plenty of twists and turns, and that was always to be expected. It’s called the rollercoaster for a reason.

I think a lot of people who grew up in the 70s and 80s have memories of regular snow falls and this might skew their thinking. With the odd exception, the nineties and naughties were really poor for snow. The last decade or so has been better (based mainly on the 5 events listed above) but then again the bar is fairly low.

Still looking likely for a hard frost at least on Christmas Day which will do nicely. Snow will be a bonus.