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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #3062
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Some classic posting here for FI - curious about the temperatures forecast in the 850 hPa charts - they don't seem that much colder than e.g. Tuesday for Ireland? Is there simply the benefit of more cold and relatively settled weather, or the chance of more significant falls? With charts like that, I would expect next week's cold to also be very conducive to widespread snow showers - the FI ones have higher pressure to weigh against them too.


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    #3063
    Calibos
    Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    The old WolfeIre

    LOL, I thought you were WolfeIre!! :D

    I’ve forgotten who everyone used to be. I just know Kermit was Darkman2.


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    #3064
    snowstorm445
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    Calibos wrote: »
    LOL, I thought you were WolfeIre!! :D

    I’ve forgotten who everyone used to be. I just know Kermit was Darkman2.

    Maquiladora used to be pretty regular poster around these parts a few years ago, haven't seen him in ages.

    Important ECM coming up now! The 0z version backed up a Scandi High this morning but it wasn't ideally tilted to let cold air flow directly towards Ireland.


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    #3065
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Calibos wrote: »
    LOL, I thought you were WolfeIre!! :D

    I’ve forgotten who everyone used to be. I just know Kermit was Darkman2.

    You are thinking SuCampu :)


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    #3066
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2021020612/ECM0-72.GIF

    For those in the South note that the uppers are coldest in the Southeast of the country, sub 10
    Coinciding with an onshore wind means snow across the South and Southeast coast imo (snow as in showers)
    Interesting to see will Met Eireann finally acknowledge this risk rather than the usual North and East coast


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    #3067
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    WOW


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    #3068
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    I think we've seen enough of the ECM to realise it allows the mild air in over Friday and weekend.
    Indeed 12/13C is likely.
    Longterm is still looking great but a warm up for a few days is the favourite for Ireland anyway


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    #3069
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Really interesting evolution on models this morning indeed with what I consider a classic example of a cold spell prelude. Heights begin to rise over Scandinavia in advance of a southerly airflow bringing milder air but this is advected northward (warm air advection). Really classic stuff and we last saw it in 2018 when we had a milder prelude coming up to the developments of the Scandi High and we got gradually colder as the high retrogressed courtesy of the completely reversed zonal flow being forced by the sudden stratospheric warming event at the time. It's not like this week's cold snap that we're relying on a wedge of heights to our north to fend off low pressure systems from the Atlantic and undercut to Europe.

    I'm showing latest ICON for illustration sakes of what I mean for those that rather a more visual approach than reading long paragraphs of waffler. The warm air advection (WAA) on the western side of the ridge to our east inflates the ridge into a blocking high which in turn sends cold air south on its eastern side as the airflow is clockwise around high pressure. This cold air is brought westward as a result but the exact positioning of the block is key to where gets the cold air.

    sYMflAf.png

    Absolutely classic stuff here. FI for now but surprised at just how much this signal has advanced overnight like that. The UK Met Office MOGREPS model with its signal of shorter-mid range models underestimating the high latitude blocking might be right about this.

    Lots to keep our eyes on at the moment, certainly not in any way boring. Whatever the end result is of this week's easterly or the potential of this Scandinavian High, we'll keep watching!
    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    I think we've seen enough of the ECM to realise it allows the mild air in over Friday and weekend.
    Indeed 12/13C is likely.
    Longterm is still looking great but a warm up for a few days is the favourite for Ireland anyway


    This is what will happen i hope.


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    #3070
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    I think we've seen enough of the ECM to realise it allows the mild air in over Friday and weekend.
    Indeed 12/13C is likely.
    Longterm is still looking great but a warm up for a few days is the favourite for Ireland anyway

    Yeah UK stays in the freezer going on this run for the most part.


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    #3071
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2021020612/ECM0-192.GIF?06-0
    Though by Sunday there's -25 uppers out East heading straight for Ireland ( I mean Cork )

    Trend is great tonight but that Scandi High does need to move Northeast a bit or we won't benefit
    Exciting times but the outlook producing the goods is far from certain ( post Friday as in outlook )


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    #3072
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    the problem with getting any decent reload from the Scandi High is that one key component is missing which is a Low Pressure over Italy, when that occurs it props up the Scandi High, i can only see one outcome unfortunately which is a decent fetch Southerly wind, at least the Balkans will get some severe weather and i would'nt be surprised to see snow along the mediteranean coast and into Spain


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    #3073
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    My word Wales could end up in the perfect spot as cold stalls over Irish Sea at the end of weekend.

    The next round looks interesting too but long way off yet.


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    #3074
    snowstorm445
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    Hmm I get the impression from the ECM that the energy might run over the top of the high and make it collapse, this has often happened before to systems like these unfortunately. It's evolving differently from other pretty much all the runs so far, but something to keep an eye on.


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    #3075
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,493 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    snowstorm445 wrote: »
    Hmm I get the impression from the ECM that the energy might run over the top of the high and make it collapse, this has often happened before to systems like these unfortunately. It's evolving differently from other pretty much all the runs so far, but something to keep an eye on.

    True. But this "new" pattern only started to show up about 2 days ago so anything is possible. Its fantastic to see where it will lead.


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    #3076
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The ECM tonight is a bit of short term term pain for longer term gain it looks like.
    Also we do get a frontal snow event on Thursday.


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    #3077
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    nacho libre wrote: »
    The ECM tonight is a bit of short term term pain for longer term gain it looks like.
    Also we do get a frontal snow event on Thursday.

    when you say long term do you mean the week after next or beyond that into the last week of February?

    the reason i ask is that after this week has passed we maybe running out of time


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    #3078
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I think we need another 2 to 3 days to see what both the GFS and ECM make of this new pattern. GFS seems to be leading the way so far, may take the ECM a day or two to catch up. Tonights ECM 12z is similar to the GFS from 2 days ago when the GFS first started messing around with this new pattern.


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    #3079
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭esposito


    typhoony wrote: »
    when you say long term do you mean the week after next or beyond that into the last week of February?

    the reason i ask is that after this week has passed we maybe running out of time

    Talk about glass half full..Very good trends today. Long way to go but promising.


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    #3080
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Yeah, no great shakes from the ECM with everything a bit flatter so the ridge doesn't inflate as much. The mild southerly also gets through. GEM at day 10 shows best case scenario with the build up of a cold pool over Europe and a ridge over Scandinavia trying to hold the Atlantic at bay though looks iffy at the same time with those Iberian heights (where have we seen that before?).

    Long way to go.. still trying to iron out the next 48-72 hours and Thursday/Friday, never mind what happens at day 10 here.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #3081
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Villain wrote: »
    My word Wales could end up in the perfect spot as cold stalls over Irish Sea at the end of weekend.

    The next round looks interesting too but long way off yet.

    Do you know what I'm thinking with the current trend,that demarcation and prolonged snowfall could actually be in east Leinster yet


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    #3082
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    typhoony wrote: »
    when you say long term do you mean the week after next or beyond that into the last week of February?

    the reason i ask is that after this week has passed we maybe running out of time

    Around the 20th of February onwards. It might be too late for you, but i would welcome it.


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    #3083
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Villain wrote: »
    My word Wales could end up in the perfect spot as cold stalls over Irish Sea at the end of weekend.

    The next round looks interesting too but long way off yet.

    Looks like it Villian, that cold has momentum too though not just sitting there to get hit. The stalling could be alot further west. As you say alot can change between now an then.
    Id just like to see one snow shower between now and wednesday :)


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    #3084
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    Do you know what I'm thinking with the current trend,that demarcation and prolonged snowfall could actually be in east Leinster yet

    Oh you auld tease :p

    The Atlantic has been slowly losing this fight for a few days now and the models are generally too fond of bringing it in so who knows.


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    #3085
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2021020612/J192-21.GIF?06-12
    The jma also showing the Scandi High so we have a majority now firming up on this idea.
    Can we get that high to align just a little more favourably?


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    #3086
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Very interesting GFS ensemble run but it does illustrate alot of uncertainty once again. Overall a very big shift since the pub run and this mornings runs.

    Last nights pub run shows the cold spell ending Thursday and a definite milder than average spell extending towards the end of February. It had a few cold outliers but the vast majority were milder than average.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2021-02-05&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Latest GFS 12z is quite a change in such a short space of time. The mild spell is 1 to 2 days if even that then a 50/50 split between milder than average and colder to much colder than average. A few of those colder outliers are brutal cold.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2021-02-06&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Along way to go and it may not work out for us or it could deliver a cold spell that will be remembered for a long time to come. Everything up in the air right now including the short term outlook, will next week be mostly dry or will there be a decent snow showers. I don't think i've ever spent as much time watching models and charts as the past few days.


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    #3087
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Villain wrote: »
    Oh you auld tease :p

    The Atlantic has been slowly losing this fight for a few days now and the models are generally too fond of bringing it in so who knows.
    Would it be fair to say the lesser the risk of the LP reaching us with warmth, means the greater the risk it will cause more WAA to prop up heights between Iceland and Scandinavia? Trying to track models on a phone is a right pain too can I add.


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    #3088
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Worth noting while we've been watching early next week and then Thursdays front that Wednesday has become a nothing day, mainly dry etc.
    Anyone else struggling to sleep lately?? I've been awake every morning by 430 checking the morning runs.
    I'll be exhausted before the snow even comes lol


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    #3089
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Worth noting while we've been watching early next week and then Thursdays front that Wednesday has become a nothing day, mainly dry etc.
    Anyone else struggling to sleep lately?? I've been awake every morning by 430 checking the morning runs.
    I'll be exhausted before the snow even comes lol

    Cork is relying on you JS for the 4 30-5 update!


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    #3090
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,817 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Europe going right into the freezer it would seem, a lot of pent up cold, will see if we tap into it the week after next. Wouldn't say no to that huge HP over us early the week after next , would be a very hard frost with that if it happens but a long way off.


    iCQSeKU.gif


    CS3pTjR.gif


    xdOmI9Y.gif


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    #3091
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    Cork is relying on you JS for the 4 30-5 update!

    I suppose we could give you a pass until 6-45 to 7 so as ECM is included.


This discussion has been closed.
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