Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
25-02-2021, 07:26   #5926
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Thursday, 25 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 25 Feb to 3 Mar 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 10 to 25 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal, to 25 per cent above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals. A few showers will develop near Atlantic coasts and some will make progress towards the midlands before dying out. Most places are likely to remain dry however, and highs will be in the pleasant 9 to 11 C range with just moderate westerly breezes at times.

TONIGHT will be clear to partly cloudy, with slight frosts likely, lows -2 to +3 C.

FRIDAY will see sunshine followed by increasing afternoon cloud, highs near 10 C. There may be some light rain in western counties by evening. Overnight, this light rain will move further east but amounts will be decreasing as the front will be weak and breaking up at this point. Amounts of 2-5 mm are expected in the west, trace to 2 mm east.

SATURDAY morning may remain cloudy for a while as this frontal cloud grinds to a halt but it should become at least partly cloudy if not sunny by afternoon, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will be dominated by high pressure that is expected to have some low level moisture trapped, what some might call anticyclonic gloom -- it probably won't be cloudy everywhere all day, so some brighter intervals can be expected, more likely or longer lasting further north and west away from the origin of the cloud to the southeast. Light winds will prevail. Highs 8 to 10 C and lows dependent on clear skies or cloud, with a likely range of overnight lows -1 to +5 C.

The further OUTLOOK is for rather bland weather to continue as this high slowly breaks down but the cloud stays in place, partly to mostly cloudy days with a slight chance of showers returning towards the end of the week, and highs generally not far from 10 C. Guidance is indicating potential for a colder spell of northerly origins around the middle of the second week of March but only lasting a couple of days before more average conditions would return.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with highs near 5 C. The strong sunshine more than the air temperature was causing snow melt and any hilly streets in town (which is most of them) had a bit of runoff but any areas in shade had wintry surface conditions of ice or snow. Our snow pack has been gradually reduced to about 45 cms from the peak of 70 cms back around late January.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
Advertisement
26-02-2021, 06:19   #5927
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Friday, 26 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



The coming week will feature dry weather for most areas with small amounts of rain tonight and possibly around Tuesday of next week, but not amounting to more than 2-4 mm in either case; temperatures will be fairly close to seasonal averages and sunshine also likely to total about the normal amounts with high pressure somewhat tainted by patchy cloud, however there is potential for some places to see better than average sunshine, and the most significant detail may be generally light winds -- it should be a reasonably good period for drying which is badly needed in most areas.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with increasing afternoon cloud, with scattered outbreaks of light rain arriving on the west coast by late afternoon to evening. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT the patchy light rain will tend to die out over central counties and parts of the east could remain almost dry with just trace amounts, lows will range from 3 C in the east to 7 C near the west coast.

SATURDAY any morning cloud or patchy drizzle should clear before mid-day and sunshine may develop across most areas in the afternoon, highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with patchy morning frosts, lows -2 to +3 C, and highs near 9 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

The rather bland weather pattern will slowly break down later in the week and it will become more active in the second week of March, details keep changing and we may not get a very clear picture of trends for temperature until middle of next week (for the second week) but it does occasionally appear rather windy with rain returning to the forecast.

My local weather on Friday started out with a fairly heavy snowfall of about 10-12 cms that ended before mid-day but it then remained cloudy with a few flurries not adding any significant new accumulations; temperatures were a bit below freezing and are heading down this evening to overnight lows near -8 C. Another much weaker arctic air mass has pushed down across most of western Canada but it only has temperatures that are slightly below normal this time, and poses no real threat to the deep south as it's likely to stall over the central plains.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
27-02-2021, 05:58   #5928
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Saturday, 27 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS remain similar, mainly dry and near normal in terms of temperature and sunshine.

FORECASTS --

TODAY will start out with patchy cloud and isolated drizzly showers, amounts very small and most places staying dry. Better sunshine is likely towards mid-day and afternoon. Light winds, nearly calm in many areas, with highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy but any locations remaining clear would have some chance of seeing either frost or fog patches developing. Lows about -1 to +4 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with light winds continuing and highs 10 to 12 C.

MONDAY may be somewhat more overcast than partly cloudy, and there is a slight chance of isolated showers developing. Lows -1 to +4 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will see a weak southerly flow developing, some outbreaks of showery rain possible, lows near 4 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

Later in the week the high, which by Tuesday will have slipped a bit further east, will rebuild and draw in some reinforcements from another high further north. This will have the effect of making it slightly colder towards the end of the week but these subtle changes may only be noticeable in east Ulster and parts of Leinster. Highs then will continue about the same in western and southern counties (10 to 13 C) but could be as cool as 7 to 10 C in the north and east. There will also remain a slight chance of isolated showers, and frosts at night for a few inland low lying spots.

This slight cooler trend may turn out a bit more vigorous for Britain and parts of central Europe which could see temperatures drifting down into a more wintry range, but so far it looks like the process is too weak to make that much impact in Ireland.

The following second week of March looks more active and in general not overly warm with Atlantic lows tracking in towards the south on a trajectory that will allow them to interact with cold air, but again it looks modified to the point where it would be more of a cold rain than a late return of wintry precipitation. That could change especially for some northern counties.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with passing light snow flurries, and rather cold with highs about -1 C.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
28-02-2021, 07:21   #5929
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Sunday, 28 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 28 Feb to 6 Mar 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near or slightly below normal values.
-- Rainfalls will amount to 10 to 20 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will be near average although rather variable from region to region.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, and with light winds it should feel relatively mild despite only average late February temperatures around 10 C.

TONIGHT will see more clear skies in some places leading to local frosts and fog patches, lows -2 to +3 C.

MONDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, still rather calm, with highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy to overcast, with lows 2-4 C and highs 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY may have a few light showers in a weak frontal passage as slightly colder air pushes in from the north to replace what's left of our current high pressure area. Lows near 4 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will feel a bit of the chill from the new high having pushed down into Britain from around Iceland -- the dynamics are weak so this may sound worse than it will actually play out, just a slight drop in temperatures for Ireland and even over in Scotland more directly affected it will stay above freezing. In Ireland highs will be 7 to 10 C and slight frosts will be more widespread than earlier in the week.

This colder weather pattern will begin to become a bit more unsettled over the weekend of 6-7 March although rainfall amounts are expected to be slight, with little change in temperatures. Later on, the second week of March looks fairly unsettled and with the colder air still hanging around, these Atlantic lows are going to find it difficult to raise temperatures much past 7 or 8 C even in coastal areas, so that there could be some sleety mixtures at times on higher ground inland.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and with highs around 4 C there was a continued slow melting of lying snow and ice turning to slush, although in shady areas because of low dewpoints it remains quite wintry. At this elevation we don't tend to get a very fast snow melt during March, it partly melts and partly sublimates until most is gone, then what's left is quickly consumed by April rainfalls. Down lower in the local valleys, snow is usually gone by the middle of March.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
01-03-2021, 07:01   #5930
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Monday, 1 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 March

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values, coldest around end of the week.
-- Rainfall may amount to 25 to 50 per cent of normal, much of that would be likely to arrive near the end of the interval so until then essentially dry.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will bring sunny intervals once any morning fog or low cloud breaks up, but the south coast may remain cloudier. Light southeast breezes, rather cool with highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will produce a bit more frost and fog patches with lows -2 to +2 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with a slight chance of isolated showers inland south, highs 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, some guidance indicates a chance for showers spreading into the southeast from a more certain area of rain in southern England, but other guidance keeps this just a bit off the coast so the areas most likely to see any rain might be along the southeast coast, and even there, amounts may be quite small. Rather chilly as that colder high I was mentioning begins to intrude into northern regions, light to moderate northeast breezes, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY look quite cool with partly cloudy skies, possibly longer intervals of sunshine in the southwest, as the source of any cloud would be either the Irish Sea for eastern counties or the Atlantic for parts of Connacht in north to northeast breezes. Isolated showers could be sleety on higher terrain. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

The weekend outlook calls for a slight moderation in temperature but an increasing risk of rain developing, with Monday quite likely to be unsettled with heavier amounts of rain arriving by then. Highs will recover slightly to the range of 9 to 12 C.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast at first, then sunny by mid-day, and reasonably mild again with highs around 5 C. Our hilly streets are turning to streams of muddy water running off but that doesn't mean the snow depths are being reduced very quickly, if we had two weeks of this kind of weather we might lose half the snow pack eventually. In fact we are expecting some fairly bland but mild weather all week.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
Advertisement
02-03-2021, 07:07   #5931
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Tuesday, 2 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 March 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values, coldest around Friday.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, most of it expected after Sunday.
-- Sunshine will average near normal for early March (about three hours a day).


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny once any fog or low cloud dissipate, although some of that could be persistent near coasts (east and south). Rather mild in the west, chilly in the east. Highs 8 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will see an increase in cloud preventing a lot of frost from returning, low cloud is more likely and lows will be 2 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, cool, with risk of showers in parts of the east, highs 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, chilly, with northeast breezes, isolated showers, lows near 3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and cold with isolated showers, possibly sleety on hills, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 except 9-10 C in the southwest.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy and slightly milder with isolated showers, highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY will become overcast with outbreaks of light rain possible, more breezy than the rest of this week, with highs 10 to 12 C.

MONDAY into TUESDAY, an Atlantic disturbance is expected and it could be fairly strong with locally heavy rainfalls and strong winds, staying rather cold with temperatures 7 to 9 C, winds westerly at least 50 to 80 km/hr during the period.

The outlook is rather wintry, after that disturbance passes another one may travel further south and turn winds around to the east with quite cold air left over from this week's arctic air mass over Britain, and while that phase will not have a direct impact in Ireland, next week it's possible that we might see mixed forms of precipitation or a cold rain with east winds (most likely mid-week around 9th-10th) followed by a rather mobile Atlantic pattern that might eventually start mixing in warmer air masses later in the month.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and rather foggy over the hills due to a low cloud ceiling just above our elevation, highs near 3 C.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
03-03-2021, 07:16   #5932
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Wednesday, 3 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS remain similar, somewhat colder than average, rather light rainfall at first becoming closer to normal amounts by late in this interval, and sunshine probably running a bit below normal with considerable cloud even when high pressure gets nearby.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, the best chance of sunny breaks is probably around Limerick, Clare and south Galway, with areas of cloud streaming in from the east both south and north of the Dublin region which may remain under low cloud and fog for a while. Some of these clouds will contain light showers of rain that could give 1-3 mm totals to a few spots in the inland southeast and trace drizzle in the inland north. Rather chilly with highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will remain overcast for most, with a few breaks, and a slight northeast breeze may bring in some drizzle or light rain along the east coast. Lows 3 to 5 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, isolated showers, and moderate northeast breezes at times, with a chilly high of about 7 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, better chances for sunshine inland west and north, morning lows -2 to +2 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will see a weak frontal trough trying to drop rain but probably quite hit or miss results, 1-3 mm may fall in some parts of Connacht and west Munster. It will get slightly milder too, highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY will become overcast with patchy light rain and highs near 12 C.

The OUTLOOK for next week calls for rather breezy to windy conditions at times, passing showers or intervals of rain with frontal passages, and temperatures generally not far from 10 C. One disturbance in the parade wants to take a more southerly track around Thursday 11th and that one could run into some fairly cold air left over from the previous cold frontal passage Tuesday, so there could be a brief appearance of mixed wintry precipitation around then. Later on in mid-March there are faint signs of warming trends that may take temperatures slightly above average by St Patrick's Day.

In my local weather, we enjoyed the mildest day so far this early spring, with a high near 12 C. That had snow melting rather steadily despite an absence of sunshine, and our snow pack has diminished to about half of what it was a week ago.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
04-03-2021, 08:26   #5933
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Thursday, 4 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 March 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will gradually edge up later in the period towards a total around 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will be rather limited at best, 50 per cent of normal might be the best of it.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the southwest, patchy light drizzly showers giving 1-2 mm totals in a few places. Moderate east to northeast winds at times, chilly with highs only 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and cold with lows -1 to +3 C. Some isolated and possibly sleety showers most likely in Ulster, Connacht and north Leinster.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with cool easterly breezes at times, highs 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and occasional light rain perhaps more persistent in the west, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy with passing showers, winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr, highs near 11 C.

MONDAY will likely start off wet as a front passes, then turn more partly cloudy by afternoon, highs near 11 C. Winds becoming westerly 50 to 80 km/hr.

TUESDAY will be windy with outbreaks of rain (5-15 mm potential), winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr, highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY into THURSDAY still presents a bit of a challenge for the models as a second low is expected but its track is not confirmed, could be through parts of the south-central counties or off the south coast, which will determine to some extent whether it has any potential to become wintry for a brief interval around Thursday morning, but temperatures will be at best around 7 or 8 C and a more certain outcome towards the end is that strong west to northwest winds will sweep in behind the low on whatever track it takes, lasting into FRIDAY and bringing temperatures in the 5-8 C range, so feeling quite raw in strong winds reaching 70-100 km/hr at times.

This stretch of rather inclement weather will then be replaced by much nicer weather conditions towards the weekend of the 13th-14th and into the following week, with high pressure returning to a dominant position just about over top of Ireland and somewhat warmer in general with highs into the 12-15 C range likely.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and very mild with highs near 14 C, which has the snow rapidly melting away, at least where the sun can reach it, and it appears likely to remain quite mild here for another week or so, leading me to look around for valley locations where golf courses might open up (that won't happen up here until first week of May as the local course still has over 30 cms cover).
M.T. Cranium is offline  
05-03-2021, 07:31   #5934
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Friday, 5 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 March 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, with some persistent areas of low cloud but more breaks than yesterday, in light southeast breezes. Highs 5 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with some frost and fog developing, lows -3 to +3 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy in the east, becoming overcast in the west where some light rain may come and go, with 1-3 mm amounts locally. Highs 8 to 11 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows -2 to +4 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY will feature some rain in the morning (3-7 mm) followed by partly cloudy skies as winds slowly veer from southerly to westerly. Lows near 4 C and highs 10 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will become rather windy with outbreaks of rain (5-15 mm expected), lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will be breezy with passing showers, and there could be more intense winds and rain by evening as a strong frontal system races across Ireland, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C, winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr and possibly as high as 70 to 120 km/hr in the evening and overnight.

THURSDAY will continue windy and turn somewhat colder with passing sleety showers, lows near 4 C and highs 6 to 8 C. Winds westerly to northwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr.

The main change in this forecast concerns the deeper outlook period, models have taken that nicer spell off the charts for the time being and extended this rather unpleasant regime (for next week) into a second week with not much change now from week to week, temperatures staying rather depressed for mid-March. We can share some hope that this is one of those flip-flops on long-range maps that won't dig in and become more certain, it could change back to what we had been seeing for several days previously.

My local weather was mild again, sunshine through various layers of higher cloud at times, and highs near 12 C.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
Advertisement
06-03-2021, 07:29   #5935
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Saturday, 6 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS remain similar, cool, likely to become quite unsettled with at least normal amounts of rain, and mostly cloudy through the interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle mainly near the west coast, 1-3 mm possible there, and staying rather cool with highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT could see a few breaks in the overcast allowing frost to develop briefly (as it did last night before cloud moved in to end the frost). Lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks and isolated showers, highs 9-11 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy after an interval of light rain in the early morning hours to mid-morning possibly on the east coast, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY will become rather windy and wet with southwest winds 70 to 100 km/hr in exposed areas, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be windy and could become very windy for a time around the evening hours, winds southwest at least 70-110 km/hr, possibly some higher gusts on the west coast, 10-20 mm rainfalls, and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY will continue breezy to windy with passing showers and highs near 9 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are looking cool, cloudy and unsettled with highs 9 to 11 C.

That nicer spell of weather that had been rudely yanked off the table yesterday is now back with high pressure looking more likely to dominate for a few days in the following week. Hopefully this is the only flip-flop we will have before this becomes more of a confirmed trend. Temperatures look like they could recover to mid-teens during this better spell of weather around mid-month.

My local weather on Friday remained mild but with a thicker overcast the high only reached 7 C. The works crews around here are starting to turn their attention to clearing drains and removing snowbanks that might lead to ponding, so that's a good sign, watching for the first robins now.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
07-03-2021, 07:25   #5936
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Sunday, 7 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 March 2021

-- Temperatures will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will approach normal values.
-- Sunshine will likely be rather limited to perhaps 50 per cent of normal although a few parts of the east and south may run closer to normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast at times, with light southerly winds, isolated showers in western counties, and sunny breaks in the east and south. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, still a few light showers at times near Atlantic coasts, lows -1 to +3 C east to 5 C west.

MONDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks and isolated showers. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain becoming heavier during the afternoon and evening, winds becoming moderate southwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be a blustery day with variable amounts of cloud, some passing showers at first, and the risk of some strong winds developing late in the day. Lows near 6 C and highs 10 to 12 C. A strong low is predicted on almost all guidance but has only begun to form today south of Nova Scotia, Canada, tracking east-northeast. So with the uncertainty we need to mention with any weather system that hasn't come together yet, there seems to be a high probability of strong westerly winds with this system when it passes north of Ireland on Wednesday night. The winds could peak at 80-120 km/hr especially in more exposed Atlantic counties. Squally showers and perhaps local thunderstorms could develop with the frontal system some time between mid-day and evening Wednesday.

THURSDAY then looks quite windy too but cold with temperatures falling back to the 5-7 C range, strong west to northwest winds 70-100 km/hr, and passing squally and in some places wintry showers.

FRIDAY will be somewhat improved but still rather cloudy and unsettled, highs near 10 C.

The current outlook for the weekend of 13th-14th is for frequent showers and rather cool temperatures, but a nicer spell of weather would quickly build in around Monday 15th and last much of the following week with highs pushing up into the 13-15 C range.

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy and mild with highs near 14 C. It's a little odd to walk around without a jacket past snowbanks that are still quite high in some places, the natural snowcover where undisturbed is now around 40 cms, and shrinking noticeably each day. But there are places where snow plows have piled up ten to fifteen metre high snow banks around public spaces like the arena parking lot near my place. The nights are staying rather mild too but there's a slight freeze by morning usually.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
08-03-2021, 07:51   #5937
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Monday, 8 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 March 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will approach normal values too, with the usual regional differences.
-- Sunshine will likely be rather limited to perhaps 50 per cent of normal although a few parts of the east and south may run closer to normal values.
-- After several almost calm days, this will be a much breezier week, at times windy.

FORECASTS


TODAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks and isolated showers. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT some rain at times near the west coast making limited progress further east, overcast, milder with lows around 6 C.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain becoming heavier during the afternoon and evening, winds becoming moderate southwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY will be a blustery day with variable amounts of cloud, some passing showers at first, with a frontal band of heavy showers and thunderstorms by afternoon, and the risk of some strong winds developing by afternoon lasting into the overnight hours. Lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 14 C. The low responsible is rapidly developing northeast of Bermuda at this time. Strong southwest winds are expected with its passage on Wednesday afternoon to overnight, that could peak at 80-120 km/hr especially in more exposed Atlantic counties. Large waves and swells are likely on the west coast. Galway Bay may see localized shoreline flooding around high tides.

THURSDAY then looks quite windy too but cold with temperatures falling back to the 5-7 C range, strong west to northwest winds 70-100 km/hr, and passing squally and, in some higher parts of the north, wintry showers.

FRIDAY will be somewhat improved but still rather cloudy and unsettled, highs near 10 C.

The current outlook for the weekend of 13th-14th is for frequent showers and rather cool temperatures, but a nicer spell of weather would quickly build in around Monday 15th and last much of the following week with highs pushing up into the 13-16 C range.

My local weather turned somewhat colder on Sunday with a bit of snow in the morning, drizzle and low cloud later on and highs only around 3 C. Eastern regions of North America are warming rapidly in a southwest flow and will have an early taste of spring this week with highs 14 to 18 C along the east coast, into the 20s further south. This warm air is being drawn up from the Gulf of Mexico as low pressure develops today over the northern plains states heading for northern Ontario. This is the same impulse that I expect will ripple along in the progressive wave features at upper levels to set up a warmer spell for Ireland in about a week. Until then, the Atlantic has an open door to a series of increasingly vigorous storms, followed by a sort of mirror image dampening down later on in the week until the series is played out, then high pressure should build up close to Ireland, keeping an eye on one minor problem with this, some guidance has the high a bit further west than is ideal so it could be trying to promote a chilly northerly breeze at least for the first day or two. The best of this weather could be right around the 17th.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
09-03-2021, 07:25   #5938
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Tuesday, 9 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 March, 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal values with some variations day to day.
-- Rainfalls will also average near normal values, much of the rain will fall from tonight to Sunday.
-- Sunshine may push towards average late in the interval but will start out rather sparse.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with some light rain gradually encroaching on western counties, later reaching central counties, as south to southwest breezes begin to freshen to 40-70 km/hr. Highs will be around 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will become windy with rain, briefly heavy, and winds increasing further to southwest 50-80 km/hr. About 5 to 10 mm rainfalls are expected.

WEDNESDAY will be a blustery day with milder temperatures arriving, together with intervals of rain and some afternoon heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds will be southwest 50 to 80 km/hr for most places until late afternoon when they may increase to 70-110 km/hr. Highs 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT will be windy and in some places stormy as gale force winds develop with higher gusts expected near both Atlantic and south coasts. Further showers and isolated thunderstorms likely, winds southwest 70-110 km/hr and possibly gusting to 120 km/hr in more exposed locations. Temperatures will be gradually falling to around morning lows of 3-5 C.

THURSDAY will continue quite windy and considerably colder with passing showers, some of them squally in nature and some also wintry especially on northern hills. Winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr and highs near 7 C but feeling colder in the wind.

FRIDAY will be overcast with occasional rain and highs near 9 C.

SATURDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers and highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY will bring cloud, some fog, rain or drizzle at times, and a milder temperature regime will set in. Highs will reach about 12 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY are looking generally settled and mild with highs possibly into the 13-15 C range.

This mild, dry spell shows signs of mutating into a cold, dry second phase as the high responsible for the mild flow may eventually reposition where it is bringing in a northeast to east flow instead, so temperatures in that case would be likely to drop back into the 5-8 C range for daytime highs with frosts returning at night. That part of the forecast is certainly subject to change closer to the time however.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and pleasant enough at about 5 C, after dark it was clear and already down to -5 C, freezing up the day's slushy surfaces. I hadn't seen a clear sky for a while and noticed that Mars is now considerably fainter than in its autumn opposition, of course that's because it is now almost twice as far from the earth as it was then. Its location in the sky is between similar looking red star Aldebaran (in Taurus) and the Pleiades, or over the left shoulder of Orion (left from the point of view of Orion looking our way, right side in other words). That part of the sky is tilted around so rather than these objects being over top of Orion they are over to its west towards the sunset point. All the other bright planets are in the morning sky at this point, it will be May or June before Jupiter or Saturn show up before midnight. Venus is about to disappear behind the Sun (26 Mar) and will then re-emerge in late April and May as an evening star. The next new moon is the 13th of this month so you would need to be an early riser to see any sign of the Moon before this time next week.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
10-03-2021, 07:19   #5939
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Wednesday, 10 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



(blog format today) ...

A powerful Atlantic storm peaked in intensity over the west-central Atlantic yesterday but will only be slightly less intense when it slams into western Ireland later today. Currently located at about 51N 28W, this low will be absorbed by another east of Iceland towards the end of the day, but its strong gradient winds will already be hitting Ireland during that process. Frontal troughs have formed out ahead of the storm and the first of these is already bringing some heavy showers to the east coast. Another one will move into the west soon and make steady progress east, then several more bands of showers and possibly thunderstorms will follow. Winds are fairly sedate now after peaking with a preliminary disturbance last evening. They will ramp up gradually during the mid-day hours and begin to approach warning criteria by late afternoon, staying strong all evening and only moderating slightly after midnight.

Temperatures will rise fairly steadily as this storm has tapped into subtropical air from north of the Azores and that is streaming in on southwest winds due to reach 70-110 km/hr later on. Highs of 13 to 15 C are likely, quite a bit milder than recent days. Some potential for gusts to 130 km/hr in a few exposed locations this evening, but perhaps a more potent hazard will be storm surge into Galway Bay and battering waves in other west-facing coastal areas, as ships were reporting waves out in the mid-ocean of ten metres. The timing of any coastal flooding around Galway would most likely be midnight to 0300h as there's a natural high tide at 0258h that will probably be enhanced a bit earlier than scheduled by the peak storm winds around midnight.

Rainfall amounts are not expected to be excessive but there could be some brief heavy downpours and amounts for most places should be in the 10-20 mm range.

Overnight the winds will veer more to due west which is why I am concerned about Galway Bay having shoreline flooding issues. They will slowly moderate slightly at least back down to 50-80 km/hr by morning. It will turn a bit colder after midnight with a morning temperature around 4 to 6 C in strong westerly winds. Passing squally showers will continue and some might become a bit sleety on higher ground with the freezing level coming down in an airstream that originated in the east Greenland Sea. However, another weak impulse travelling along in the strong westerlies will then arrive later Thursday and an interval of steady rain might be the result with a brief resurgence of stronger wind gusts. Friday sees another similar cycle with temperatures steady around 8 C and further rainfalls both days of about 5-8 mm. New moon is on Saturday so tides will be running fairly high all week with this sustained westerly flow, however the subsequent ones will probably stay below the levels achieved tonight.

By Saturday yet another weak disturbance is due with another round of showers and blustery westerly winds, temperatures near 7 or 8 C. Sunday sees the start of a milder trend that will be somewhat unsettled at first, until high pressure from the central Atlantic can build in close enough to dry out the flow by about Tuesday. So Sunday and Monday may both have a fair amount of cloud, showers or drizzle, and highs near 12 C. From Tuesday to about Friday it looks dry and perhaps mostly sunny with high pressure drifting in almost overhead by late in the week. Highs could edge up towards 15 C in bright sunshine but nights will continue to be rather chilly under the clear skies, and local fog patches are possible.

The further evolution of this high seems likely to take it a bit further north to begin a weak easterly flow at the surface levels over most of Britain and Ireland, but it may not turn that much cooler except for onshore sea breeze cooling in Leinster, so would suggest by the following weekend highs might have fallen back to 8-11 C there and remain 12-14 C in parts of the west. This wouldn't have to change too much to become like a notable warm spell under high pressure in March of 2012. But that may be a bridge too far for this pattern, eventually it looks like a rather variable regime will return with weak frontal systems, and transient highs peaking for a day or two, to provide a fairly average sort of outcome for the last third of March.

My local weather on Tuesday was hazy sunshine and mild temperatures near 7 C. There are weak troughs moving by with cloud and virga at times but nothing reaching the ground during the past day. New York City had its warmest day of the spring so far at 18 C.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(79) thanks from:
17-pdr, 200motels, amber2, An Ri rua, Aquals, Artane2002, Bailey43, Beechwoodspark, BigMoose, Boards.ie, cdev, Cheensbo, Ckit1, CloughCasey1, coillsaille, Cork Lass, corsav6, Darwin, Deank, dmc17, DOCARCH, Duvet Day, Fakediamond, Figerty, florryfox, Forever21, fricatus, GeneHunt, Gerianam, Goldfinch8, Gremlinertia, hangar18_, HappyDaze007, HildaOgdenx, Iderown, Ilyushin76, islanderre, jirafa, jspuds, J_A_F_A, Knine, lapua20grain, lexi-lexi, little bess, Mac Taylor, Macy0161, marvin80, Meathcat, Mercky, NMB, now online, PatQfarmer, Popoutman, Postdriver, realdanbreen, RebelButtMunch, Reckless Abandonment, RegisteredMice, riggerman, Rodar08, roshje, Rulmeq, SlipperyPeople, smokie72, spoonerhead, sryanbruen, Sugarbowl, SuperStarHoney, Tazio, teddybones, Ted_YNWA, thomasm, tom_k, turbostan, unkel, unknownlegend, Water John, waterways, Wine Goddess
11-03-2021, 07:47   #5940
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,951
Thursday, 11 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 March 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, with a slight upward trend in general.
-- Rainfall will average 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will also average 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy to windy at times, and colder with passing squally showers, some risk of hail and thunder, and a few more wintry showers possible on higher terrain mostly. Highs about 7 or 8 C, feeling colder in westerly winds reaching 50-80 km/hr.

TONIGHT there may be an interval of steady light rain (sleet on some northern hills), lows 2 to 5 C, winds still quite strong at southwest 40-70 km/hr.

FRIDAY will be another unsettled day with moderate westerly winds 40-70 km/hr, passing showers, and highs between 8 and 10 C.

SATURDAY will be windy and rather cold with occasional showers, winds west to northwest 60 to 90 km/hr, and lows near 3 C, highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY will turn milder with some light rain or drizzle in some western counties mainly, partly cloudy to overcast elsewhere, highs near 12 C. Not as windy, but moderate west backing to southwest breezes.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, with a few showers reaching Connacht and west Ulster late in the day, generally light winds, highs 12 to 14 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will probably bring more generous amounts of sunshine and mild daytime readings in the 12 to 15 C range, slight cooling from sea breezes more likely in east than on other coasts, and a larger range from overnight lows (near frost levels) to daytime highs.

The outlook calls for the high pressure area responsible for the improved weather to shift somewhat further north which could bring temperatures down slightly, or considerably in the case of the Leinster shoreline areas subject to cooling sea breezes in easterly winds. Highs there might drop back to 8-10 C while other regions stay closer to 12 or even 14 C. Nights will be chilly with scattered frosts.

This settled interval will gradually yield to a rather cloudy and slightly unsettled regime with no strong pressure systems in control, just weak ebbs and flows mainly from the north or east meaning it may be somewhat colder than average towards the following week (after 20th of March).

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and cool with highs only about 4 C, passing snow showers off to our north didn't quite deliver here but we could see the snow falling on nearby hills. It was another very mild day in eastern parts of North America with some places reaching 20 C.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet