[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 17 July, 2009 _ 0700h
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Please note, a new forecast will be posted soon, but I have only had time this evening (my time) to check the new model run and situation rather briefly, and I don't see anything too different from the existing forecast posted yesterday (see above three posts or so) ... so my apologies, but I am pretty sure that I will just be repeating that forecast in about 30 minutes or so. (having some vehicle repairs done outside my home and this has taken longer than expected, back soon).

The main area of rain has retreated into the Irish Sea but if you're on the beach you may see a few raindrops ... that's how close to land it appears to be on radar.

More very soon.

[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 17 July, 2009
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TODAY will feature some longer sunny intervals especially to the west of the Dublin and Wicklow mountains for much of the rest of Ireland, but some areas of cloud and showers could develop around mid-day in a freshening NW breeze. The rain in the Irish Sea should continue to edge away from land but could pivot around and move into counties north of Dundalk by mid-day. Highs today will be 18 or 19 C in most parts, perhaps only 16 C in Ulster due to more cloud and showers.

TONIGHT will continue fairly dry and in some parts clear at times, with lows generally around 10-12 C in a moderate NW breeze (10-20 mph).

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy in many parts of Ireland, but could become extensively cloudy over the northern third and the southwest, with embedded showers or periods of rain possible at times mainly in these areas, although some isolated showers could develop in other parts as well. Winds should continue to be rather moderate from the W to NW, and highs will reach about 17 or 18 C.

SUNDAY is looking more windy than Saturday as a weak trough is absorbed into the spinning low over Scotland, and a renewed surge of cooler air moves across Ireland, bringing a rather extensive cloud deck that may clear in places for some sunny intervals, but seems likely to bring rather widespread showers at times as well. Highs will be near 17 C after morning lows near 8 C, and some rather heavy showers could develop with possibly a rumble of thunder with one or two. Winds will increase to WNW 30-45 mph at times.

MONDAY will see the strong NW breezes dying off by mid-day, there could be a sunny interval or two before more cloud begins to move in from a new disturbance approaching from the southwest. This will probably bring rain into the southwest by afternoon and evening. Highs will be closer to 19 or 20 C.

TUESDAY is looking rather wet again with periods of rain, thundery in some spots, and potential for 10-30 mms of rainfall. Highs will be 18-20 C.

LATER NEXT WEEK it should become more variable again but there is likely to be more rain at times, and temperatures are stuck in the 18-21 C range for the time being.

I hope you all have a fun weekend starting as soon as possible -- mine will start when I post this.

[M.T. Cranium]

Saturday, 18 July, 2009
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TODAY may start out bright in some eastern counties, while a misty, damp overcast regime spreads into the northwest and tries to take over the south coast as well, although much of that rain has come and gone for the time being. More may develop but I am not convinced that the south will get into any prolonged or heavier rain so much as perhaps the northwest and later Ulster ... things are complicated by how much of the Atlantic system gets pulled into the spinning remnants of the major U.K. storm system which still has lots of moisture and energy and is heading northwest across Scotland. So as you can see, I am hedging because frankly, the cloud signature looks rather like the rainfall potential is trying to merge the two systems over Ulster later today into tonight. In any case, it almost certainly won't be a dry day for too many and if rain does come in any measurable amounts there will probably be a tendency to hill fog and mist later on as well. Highs throughout should be near 17 C. Watch for updates though, possibly from me if I stay up all night watching the golf as is my desire (currently it is 9:30 pm where I reside far from the hurly burly so to speak).

TONIGHT (meaning Saturday night in Ireland, I have to refocus) will continue cloudy and damp with perhaps a final burst of moderate rain from the dying Atlantic wave as it gets pulled into the circulation of the stronger low to the north. Winds will start to pick up from the WNW at 20-30 mph by morning, and lows should reach about 10 or 11 C.

SUNDAY is looking quite windy still, although there has been a downgrade due rather perversely to the strength of the low taking it on a long westward journey to the north of Ireland. This will make the wind direction more westerly than the previously advertised NW'ly although it could start off that way in the morning. Cloud amounts will be quite variable as the cloud should tend to form long streaks of low-based strato-cumulus that will have sunny "lanes" between them. Also some of the clouds will boil up high enough to drop a sharp, five to ten minute shower here and there. If you have higher ground to your southeast or east, you are more likely to get rain than other people (assuming you live in Ireland, that is). Highs will be about 18 C.

MONDAY could feature hours of sunshine, like perhaps one or two or even three for some lucky folk, then another storm will be arriving off the southwest coast and spreading its brand new load of cloud across the land, followed by a steady downpour by evening. Highs could reach 20 C in the sunny mid-day intervals.

TUESDAY will become wet in all areas for a time, with thundery downpours possible, and highs near 18 C. At the present indication, winds should not be much of an issue. The low is basically heading straight for southeast Ireland and into the Irish Sea.

WEDNESDAY is likely to be showery too but there should be some clearing by afternoon although possibly not that much sunshine. Highs will reach about 20 or 21 C.

THURSDAY yet another low comes calling, I was getting dizzy looking at them all but I think it is the remnants of the U.K. low returning from the leisurely tour of the central Atlantic. Or perhaps that will be Friday's low. In any case, if this is barbecue summer, I hope your barbecue came with a substantial umbrella.

However, you can't knock the terrific weather you had already, there is that.

If you still recall any of that.

Updates may follow, if there is anything to report. Turnberry is looking somewhat on the edge of the worst weather for Scotland but eventually I think a driving rain will test the players (ah great).

[darc]

Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium

Updates may follow, if there is anything to report. Turnberry is looking somewhat on the edge of the worst weather for Scotland but eventually I think a driving rain will test the players (ah great).

So looking good for harrington & mc ilroy this morning but old tom watson will be buggered?

[M.T. Cranium]

Tom Watson would still be very competitive if he had full confidence in his short putting. He may actually benefit from the wind and rain (if it proves to be a big factor) because everyone else will be having trouble with their putting as well. John Daly might do well, hard to say if he's aware of the weather that much.

Looking at the radar, I would say 3-5 mm rainfalls likely across much of Mayo and Galway, 2-3 mms across Clare and Kerry into Cork, but perhaps only 1-2 for rest of Ireland unless far Northern Ireland and Donegal get into the backwash from the main low later on. Not a terrible day, too bad it's a weekend though.

[PaulByrne'sBald]

Great thread, great job...
keep up the good work and heres hoping the boys do well in the open...

[M.T. Cranium]

UPDATE _ Saturday, 8:45 p.m.
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Some rather heavy bursts of rain showing up now in central Ireland in connection with a weak wave moving east and likely to drift more south of due east later, so would look for a rainy evening in parts of Offaly, Laois, Kildare, Carlow, Wicklow ... 5-7 mms of rain seems possible with this. Other regions will have more like a gentle drizzle or misty situation.

Well, they certainly got lucky with the weather at Turnberry, it seemed from the radar that the golf course was between two lines of heavy showers, and you could certainly see the showers just to the north on some of the views, tomorrow I think they will have a 'soft" day and we all know what that means -- or do we?

Perhaps to add a dimension to this thread, I will try to remember to post my mid-day weather conditions near Vancouver, Canada, on these evening updates. Today so far, sunny and quite warm, about 26 C, a weak sea breeze is reaching my location (barely) and it was a bit hotter yesterday, we have had a weak, dry cold front drift through this morning. I know it sounds great, but we could use some rain, everything bone dry around this part of the world now.

[darc]

Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium

Tom Watson would still be very competitive if he had full confidence in his short putting. .

who needs short putting when you can sink 60 footers! - He'll hopefully make a great champion and give golf a much needed shot in the arm

[M.T. Cranium]

Sunday, 19 July, 2009
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TODAY will start out cloudy with widespread light showery rain but gradual brightening if not clearing can be expected as winds pick up by mid-day to about 20-30 mph from the west. A few more scattered showers, possibly one or two briefly thundery, will develop in the afternoon. Highs will be near 18 C.

TONIGHT will see somewhat stronger winds near the northwest coast (30-40 mph) and continued strong westerly breezes elsewhere, but showers may die off to more of a drizzly mist or fog on hills, as some eastern and southern counties get a spot of clearing and lows generally fall to about 9 or 10 C.

MONDAY will see further gusty winds and showers across Donegal and parts of NI but this will be confined to the north coasts mostly, then a pleasant mid-day interval should bring some sunshine and fairly warm temperatures near 20 C in many parts of Ireland, to be followed rather quickly by increasing cloud as winds back to the south then southeast. Rain will follow into the southwest at least by evening.

TUESDAY is now looking even wetter than previously advertised, as a strong low swerves north along the west coast. This will create a period of strong SE winds on the south coast reaching up to Dublin by mid-morning and spreading out across inland areas, with heavy rain at times, or thundershowers. There is potential for another 20-30 mms in this storm. Winds could gust to 40 mph or higher on the coast. Morning lows will be 13 to 15 C and afternoon highs not much different at 17 to 19 C.

WEDNESDAY should be improved as skies clear gradually after some morning showers, and highs reach 20 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are likely to be showery and reasonably warm near 18 or 19 C.

Updates may follow ...

Enjoy the golf, especially if you're playing. I had to laugh when they started talking about "Old Tom Watson," mostly because I am three months his elder, if perhaps three strokes his senior also, per hole.

[Dotsie~tmp]

What are the chances of getting away with a dry barbeque in Dublin do u think?

[M.T. Cranium]

UPDATE _ Sunday, 2 p.m.
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I would say that unless you've already had your barbeque in Dublin at mid-day, the chances are fairly slim that it will be a rain-free period, as the frequency of showers will increase as they are likely to do across much of eastern Ireland this afternoon ... a renewed wave of energy is rotating around the larger storm well to the north of Ireland (which is heading west itself) and this can be seen on radar as a knot of heavier showers, some of which could be briefly thundery, around northeast Galway county, a feature that will probably hold together as it moves steadily east and perhaps a little south over the rest of the daylight hours today. Counties ahead of this feature such as Longford, Westmeath, Meath, Kildare and Dublin may see some fairly heavy downpours later on and accumulate 5-8 mms of rain.

Further south the showers may be more widely scattered and not as heavy, and a few sunny intervals are possible. And further north, it will be bright and breezy at times with the risk of a heavy shower.

[glossy]

well it's lashing here now for a good while in D15 area

[thomasj]

Originally Posted by glossy

well it's lashing here now for a good while in D15 area

yeah had a fairly heavy downpour here in dublin 15 in the last few minutes. Has died down a bit but still raining

[M.T. Cranium]

No updates by way of changes to the forecast ... to keep up with the weather comparison, here's what I had here today on the west coast of Canada ... sunshine, very dry, 23 C with a refreshing sea breeze. There are serious forest fires well inland from here, you might see something about them on the news perhaps, but I don't live in that part of the province of British Columbia (I'm not a lumberjack and I'm okay ...)

If I should live that long, I will join the proceedings again around 0530 your time.

[M.T. Cranium]

Monday, 20 July, 2009
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TODAY will feature some sunny intervals for the south and east in particular, but it will stay rather breezy across the north with scattered showers. Meanwhile, cloud will be massing off the south coast for a determined push northward in the afternoon, ahead of a storm due to arrive by morning. Some rain could reach the south coast and the southwest by evening.

Highs today will reach about 20 C in the east, 18 C across the south and west coastal districts, and more like 16 or 17 C in most of Ulster.

TONIGHT will see cloud and then rain moving in from the south, to cover most of Ireland before morning. Winds will pick up rapidly from the ESE at about 30-40 mph offshore and 20-30 mph on land. Lows will be near 12 C.

TUESDAY will start with a period of heavy rain with some risk of thunder, as the strongest winds move slowly north towards Ulster by afternoon. There could be some late improvements in the south and southwest, but for many regions, much of the day will be wet and windy. Highs will reach about 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will be more variable with a moderate S to SW wind and some showers or thundershowers redeveloping. Lows of about 14 C will be followed by highs near 21 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with occasional showers or longer periods of rain, and rather strong SW to W winds arriving later, basically the remnants of the weekend U.K. storm making a loop around and returning from the west. The temperature range will be about 12 to 18 C.

FRIDAY looks partly cloudy, breezy and rather cool with highs near 17 C.

NEXT WEEKEND from this perspective looks somewhat encouraging with weak ridging advertised, so possibly a dry and reasonably warm scenario with limited shower potential. We'll see how long that lasts the "weekend test."