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12-09-2010, 20:39   #1516
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12-09-2010, 21:33   #1517
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I continue to think that Tuesday will be quite a blustery and potentially stormy day in most parts of Ireland, especially Connacht which is right in the firing line for a very strong jet stream, rapid cold advection and an unstable atmosphere that will bring down these strong wind gusts to near the surface quite readily. The factors that are different from Saturday would include much stronger winds aloft, lower freezing levels developing, greater cold advection, and a steeper lapse rate. This should mean some fairly heavy to severe hail and thunder showers especially in Connacht, inland parts of Ulster and Leinster, and in terms of Munster, at least Clare, Limerick and parts of Cork and Kerry. The southeast may be somewhat sheltered from this blast when it develops. Note that it will all start around midnight or so Monday night in Donegal, which for this forecast period you should include with Connacht in any comments that I make because of its position first in line for these strong winds.

Scotland, of course, is going to get even stronger winds as the core of the disturbance moves across that region on Tuesday, and they will stay in very similar conditions on Wednesday while in Ireland, things may not be so blustery by then (except possibly in parts of Ulster).

Meanwhile, tomorrow should see a break between this warm frontal rain tonight and the disturbance rapidly approaching for Monday night. If the sun breaks out in the south, it could get as warm as 22-23 C in some places, as a wedge of subtropical air is brought through by the rapidly developing low. Of course the last "warm wedge" was just a strong inversion with unbroken stratus overcast, but this time I think some sun may get through -- enjoy any warmth because temperatures are about to drop below normal for the second half of the week and may stay there for quite some time. The longer-term outlook is positive though, with Igor making a long, slow curve towards Newfoundland and then Greenland, with the Azores high being gradually shunted back to the northeast, so there could be some very pleasant weather to come late in September.

We have pretty much the same weather as you (in western Ireland as far as your day already went) with steady rain now, and 15 C.
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13-09-2010, 06:35   #1518
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TODAY ... warm and humid, with some morning showers gradually clearing away to hazy sunshine especially in the southern half of the country, but rain may continue further north ... winds SW 20-35 mph ... highs 17-19 C north but 21-23 C inland south (near 20 C west coast where low cloud or sea fog may be fairly constant) ... more showers will develop much later in the afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT ... becoming quite windy and staying very mild with frequent showers and chance of a thunderstorm ... winds WSW 20-40 mph (reaching 30-50 mph western Mayo by early morning and 40-60 mph in exposed parts of Donegal) ... lows 10-12 C.

TUESDAY ... showers and thunderstorms becoming heavy in some areas with hail, gusty winds ... a few sunny intervals in the southeast where it will stay rather warm to about mid-day with highs near 17 C, but elsewhere temperatures will fall to about 12-14 C after a strong front moves through, winds veering WSW to WNW 30-50 mph with gusts to near 60 mph in exposed west coast locations. Remaining showery and windy all night with lows falling off to about 5-7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... breezy, partly cloudy with a few more showers mainly in Connacht and Ulster, highs near 15 C, winds NW 20-40 mph.

THURSDAY ... less windy and longer sunny intervals, but quite cool in a NNW wind of 15-30 mph, lows near 4 C rural areas and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY ... partly cloudy and chilly with morning lows near 3 C and highs near 13 C. Winds falling off to light northerly.

SATURDAY ... possible rural frost, lows -2 to +2 C, sunshine with cloudy periods in the daytime, highs 12-14 C.

Following this cool spell, there should be a gradual return to more normal temperatures.

Igor is now a cat-4 hurricane that could become cat-5 within 24 hours, passing just north of the Virgin Islands on a track towards Bermuda in about a week from now. T.S. Julia has formed near the Cape Verde Islands in this very active season; it looks like heading rather harmlessly towards the central Atlantic. A third possible storm lurks south of Jamaica but has not been given a number or name yet.

Today (Sunday 12th) here was dismal, rain all day long and just 15 C.

Watch for updates, but the really active day will be Tuesday.
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14-09-2010, 06:37   #1519
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TODAY ... Blustery and changeable in general with frequent showers developing once the morning rain in the southeast pulls away ... but also some brief sunny intervals ... winds SW 25-40 mph becoming W 30-50 mph by mid-day, and some risk of hail or thunder with the heavier showers, especially in Connacht and west Munster, west and north Ulster. ... highs near 18 C in the southeast, 16 C central and 14 C north.

Watch for updates as the winds aloft will be very strong by mid-day and any showers could become severe.

TONIGHT ... continued blustery showers but longer clear intervals developing in the east and south, winds NW 20-35 mph, lows near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... breezy (windy in parts of Ulster) with more passing showers, some heavy at times with hail and thunder, but longer intervals of sunshine in the east and south, winds NW 20-35 mph (gusting to 50 in parts of Ulster) with highs 13-15 C.

THURSDAY ... not as windy, but cool with some sunshine, some cloud and a few isolated showers, winds NNW 15-25 mph, lows near 4 C and highs around 14 C.

FRIDAY ... sunny with cloudy intervals, frosty start in some central rural settings, lows in the range of 0 to 4 C and highs 13-14 C.

SATURDAY ... mostly sunny, cool, morning frosts with lows -2 to +3 C and highs only 12-15 C.

SUNDAY ... increasing cloud, some chance of showers west, another frosty start with highs near 15 C.

Meanwhile, it was a pleasant day here on Monday (13th) with highs near 20 C and some afternoon sunshine; not too much happening across the continent here today, but Igor continues to bear down on the Virgin Islands and Antigua/Barbuda as a cat-4 storm, while Julia follows well behind and slowly strengthens to a 50-mph tropical storm.

Updates will follow ... expect the radar to become fairly active around 1100h for Connacht, while the southeast slowly loses its rain echoes, some places in between may not get a lot of action today but with these very strong winds aloft, development could be quite rapid.
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15-09-2010, 06:14   #1520
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TODAY will be partly cloudy and still rather windy, especially in Ulster and north Leinster, with the winds now more NW'ly at 20-40 mph. Some heavy showers with hail and thunder could develop later this morning and through the day, more frequent in Ulster and Leinster, but possible almost anywhere, but there will also be some decent sunny intervals too. It will feel colder today with highs only 14-15 C and temperatures could fall to about 10 C in the heavier showers.

TONIGHT will see the winds gradually diminishing, with showers dying out, and longer clear intervals, allowing temperatures to drop off to about 3-5 C in most places except for some west coast locations where a steady NW breeze will keep temperatures near 9 C.

THURSDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals and still some slight chance of a shower, although mainly rather light, with winds only 10-20 mph from a northerly direction. Highs will be 13-15 C.

FRIDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, cool with a morning frost in many places, lows -2 to +3 C, highs 12-15 C with light winds.

SATURDAY will start out chilly again with another frost, but cloud may spread in from the west around sunrise, so the frost risk will be mostly in the inland eastern counties. Expect lows of -1 to +3 C and highs of 12-15 C with some showers developing late in the day mainly in Connacht, in a light SW wind.

SUNDAY will be milder with variable cloudiness and lows near 4 C, highs near 17 C.

Next week will be fairly mild and cloudy with occasional mist, drizzle or light rain in a generally east to southeast wind flow.

Today (Tuesday 14th) here was hazy with afternoon sunshine, and quite warm compared to recent days with a high near 23 C.

Igor continues to edge closer to the Virgin Islands and Barbuda, but should pass just to the north of them late tonight or tomorrow. It is almost a cat-5 hurricane at this point. Julia proved fairly independent and made it to cat-2 intensity, and now we have Karl (as mentioned yesterday) south of the Cayman Islands heading in towards Belize and the Yucatan. Karl could become a hurricane later when it re-emerges from the Yucatan in a few days' time.

Watch for updates on today's heavy shower threat.
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16-09-2010, 06:06   #1521
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TODAY ... mostly cloudy with a few sunny intervals, less windy but still from a NW to N'ly direction at 10-20 mph, and rather chilly ... a few light showers especially in Kerry and Cork this morning, and in Ulster by mid-day ... but not much accumulation, 1-2 mms at most ... highs generally 14-15 C.

TONIGHT ... clear intervals developing, frosty in some rural areas, with dense fog patches especially near lakes and streams ... lows -2 to +3 C for most, but closer to 7 C in large towns and near the west and north coasts.

FRIDAY ... mixture of cloud and sunshine, generally dry, slight risk of a brief shower in the south ... highs 13-15 C.

SATURDAY ... light rain developing after another rather chilly start, possibly staying dry in some parts of the south, and at least for the morning in Ulster and Leinster ... lows generally zero to 4 C, and highs 13-16 C.

SUNDAY ... cloudy with some hazy sunshine, a bit milder, some intervals of light rain or drizzle too ... lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.

NEXT WEEK should be generally a bit warmer again with temperatures generally in the 17-19 C range for highs and around 8 C for lows.

Today (Wed 15th) here was cloudy and warm with a bit of light rain by late afternoon, nothing measurable ... the high was about 21 C. Igor and Julia continue on their tracks WNW as per the previous forecast, and Karl has almost finished crossing the Yucatan and could become a minimal hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico.
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17-09-2010, 07:20   #1522
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TODAY will be dry and relatively cool with about equal portions of cloud and sunshine, together with light winds. The highest temperatures will be about 14 to 16 C but with the light winds it may feel reasonably warm if the sun comes out at mid-day.

TONIGHT skies will remain clear to partly cloudy across the south and east, allowing temperatures to drop to near the frost zone as early as midnight, but as last night seemed a bit milder than expected, I will suggest a rather wide range for temperatures depending on how many hours of clear skies you get, somewhere between 2 and 7 C in rural areas. Northern counties will have more cloud and some rain will develop in Donegal and Mayo around 0200-0400 moving further east rather quickly. Amounts of 5 mms are likely there, with lows of 9-12 C.

SATURDAY the rain will continue on through Ulster and north Leinster during the morning, with patchy drizzle or light showers further south although some places could remain dry. The sun will make brief appearances later in the day and it will warm up somewhat to highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals and further outbreaks of light rain with mist or hill fog in some western counties; lows will be 7-10 C and highs 15-17 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY will be cloudy with outbreaks of light to moderate rain and southeast to south winds of 15-30 mph, rather mild with lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

There are some signs of a warmer, drier interval on east to northeast winds following this, but uncertainty about the track of Igor once it rushes past Newfoundland on Tuesday, lead me to suggest caution about how the second half of the week will turn out; the models suggest Igor will move well north to the west of Iceland and die out in the East Greenland Sea. If it came much closer to Iceland and into the Norwegian Sea then later next week could be less settled.

Meanwhile, Igor tonight (local time) is northeast of the Virgin Islands and has taken a track just far enough north to spare them a direct hit, but it is still heading for Bermuda in about three days' time. Julia has weakened in the Sargasso Sea, and Karl is beefing up en route to eastern Mexico.

We had a pleasant day here on Thursday with some sunshine and highs near 19 C but rain developed after 5 p.m. and has continued since then. Warmer weather has returned to the east coast, with Washington DC near 32 C on Thursday, but NYC had a severe storm that may have spawned a tornado right around where George Costanza's parents live (I know, they aren't real people).
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17-09-2010, 08:10   #1523
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17-09-2010, 18:35   #1524
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
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TONIGHT skies will remain clear to partly cloudy across the south and east, allowing temperatures to drop to near the frost zone as early as midnight, but as last night seemed a bit milder than expected, I will suggest a rather wide range for temperatures depending on how many hours of clear skies you get, somewhere between 2 and 7 C in rural areas. Northern counties will have more cloud and some rain will develop in Donegal and Mayo around 0200-0400 moving further east rather quickly. Amounts of 5 mms are likely there, with lows of 9-12 C.
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That must be why met eireann have decided not to include tonight in their forecast!
http://met.ie/forecasts/
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18-09-2010, 06:56   #1525
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TODAY ... cloudy with periods of rain heavier in the north, where 10-15 mms possible ... some south coast locations staying almost dry but 5-10 mms otherwise in the south ... light south to southwest winds, rather chilly to start but slowly warming up to about 15-17 C for a high. Some hill fog likely.

TONIGHT ... overcast with light rain at times, foggy or misty, lows 9-12 C.

SUNDAY ... cloudy with a bit of hazy sunshine possible in the south by mid-day and afternoon, 3-5 mms further rainfall mostly in the north, and also somewhat warmer with highs 17-19 C.

MONDAY ... cloudy with some hazy sunshine in the south and east, light rain at times near the west coast and across the north, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY ... cloudy, showers, mild, lows 10-12 C and highs 18-20 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... periods of rain, heavy at times, winds SSW 15 to 30 mph, temperatures in a narrow range 13-18 C (could be warmer at times in the east).

FRIDAY ... variable cloud, highs near 16 C.

The main change to the longer term forecast is that Igor is now shown to be tracking slowly east across the Atlantic instead of more to the north, and this may signal an eventual forecast of heavy rain and strong winds if this storm speeds up and remains relatively intact from Tuesday to about Friday. At this stage, the remnants reach Ireland around Saturday 25th.

Today (Friday 17th) here was cloudy with some sunny intervals, with a high of about 19 C. Hurricane Karl made landfall earlier Friday north of Veracruz, Mexico but the city itself sustained some damage from cat-1 hurricane winds. Igor, a massive storm that has only weakened near the core, plods on towards Bermuda which may sustain cat-2 winds at some point late tonight. Julia is about done now and will be absorbed by Igor.
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19-09-2010, 07:00   #1526
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TODAY ... morning showers or periods of light rain, heavier across the north and east, but followed in some places by brighter intervals at mid-day, before another period of light rain coming ashore mid-day in the west and making progress east during the afternoon. The south may stay relatively dry through all of that, and highs will be in the range of 17-19 C, warmer south. Hill fog will remain rather extensive and may not clear much all day.

TONIGHT ... cloudy with fog developing, scattered light rain tending to die out after midnight, lows 9-12 C.

MONDAY ... cloudy with some hazy sunshine, just a few isolated and brief showers, mostly in Connacht and Ulster, highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY ... mild and dry across the east, with more cloud and eventually light rain in west coast counties, southerly winds 10-20 mph, lows 8-10 C and highs 18-21 C with the warmer readings inland east.

WEDNESDAY ... periods of rain becoming heavy and possibly thundery, 20 mms of rain or more, dry at first in east but wet by afternoon ... lows of about 12 C and highs near 17 C. Winds moderate south backing to southeast.

THURSDAY ... gradual clearing with a few residual showers confined to south by mid-day, winds turning east to northeast, much drier and a bit cooler as well, lows 8-10 C and highs 15-17 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... at present, this period looks dry with some sunshine, as models are now converging on a high near Iceland holding back the remnants of Igor around 25-30 W. Temperatures near normal although chilly again at night.

Speaking of Igor, this large but no longer intense hurricane is approaching Bermuda rather gradually and peak winds should occur Sunday evening your time, around 21z ... following a cat-1 or 2 assault on Bermuda, the storm gradually loses tropical characteristics but not the wind or rain, which head to Newfoundland for Monday-Tuesday. After that, Igor seems likely to die slowly in the mid-Atlantic trying to break through the blocking high described above. Julia is now quite weak and being absorbed slowly by Igor. The next storm of the season may be born within two days, once again near Cape Verde.

On Saturday (18th) here, we enjoyed some afternoon sunshine but there was rain both this morning and at present time with about 15 mms so far in total.

Hope you all find some decent spells to enjoy later today.
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20-09-2010, 06:39   #1527
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TODAY ... rather warm and very humid with a few scattered showers, mostly light, giving 1-3 mms of rain in some locations ... staying rather misty or foggy on higher ground and near the west coast ... winds SW 10-20 mph ... highs 18-20 C.

TONIGHT ... misty and turning foggy in many places, a few more very light showers, although steady rain edging towards the outer west coast ... lows only falling to 11-13 C.

TUESDAY ... hazy sunshine may develop for a while in the south and east, but cloud with periods of rain will edge east from the west coast, making only limited progress. Highs will be 19-21 C with the higher readings in the east.

WEDNESDAY ... periods of rain becoming heavy and more widespread, reaching the east by mid-day, and giving 20-30 mms of rainfall with some thundery downpours possible ... lows near 13 C and highs near 18 C ... winds SSE backing to ESE 15-30 mph.

THURSDAY ... rain becoming showery and increasingly confined to the south, although some heavy falls possible there, while sunny intervals develop in Ulster, and mainly cloudy with scattered drizzle or light rain but also some dry intervals across central Ireland, all accompanied by E-NE winds of 15-30 mph and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY will be a mostly dry and seasonable period under higher pressure located just to the north of Ireland, but cloud will be more frequent in the south, and winds will remain E-NE 15-30 mph much of the time, dropping off at night, with average lows near 5 C and highs near 15 C.

This spell may gradually improve to warmer, still settled weather.

Meanwhile, Igor has brushed past Bermuda which experienced wind gusts to almost 100 mph in places (and still has very strong winds) and the track philosophy remains the same as yesterday's report ... Lisa may be on the scene by later today, while Julia fades out to the east of Igor. Lisa would be near the Cape Verde Islands and heading for the Caribbean in about a week from now.

Locally, the weather here was wet except for an hour or two at mid-day, and some flooding was reported in nearby towns although I think we had a lot less rain than the reported 60 mms there. The highs around here were near 17 or so, and the east coast is about to turn much warmer again once a high being delayed by Igor can crest over New England later today.
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21-09-2010, 06:27   #1528
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TODAY ... warm and quite humid with a few sunny or at least bright intervals in the east, somewhat thicker cloud in the west and north with a few showers, followed by steady rain on the west coast by afternoon. This heavier rain will edge east to about a north-south line through Lough Derg by evening. Highs near 18 C west to 21 C east. Winds SSE 10-20 mph. Some fog on hills becoming thicker in Connacht by evening.

TONIGHT ... periods of rain reaching the east coast by late overnight or near sunrise, other places seeing a steady downpour with 10-20 mms likely, very mild for time of year, lows 13-15 C. One or two rumbles of thunder possible.

WEDNESDAY ... showers and one or two heavier thundery bursts of rain giving further accumulations of about 25 mms, winds SE 10-20 mph and dense fog over higher terrain spreading down to lower elevations by late in the day. Highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY ... morning showers or periods of rain, possibly lasting all day in the southeast, winds shifting around to northerly 15-25 mph, temperatures stalling at about 15 C at that point and falling slowly.

FRIDAY ... Connacht and nearby parts of Ulster, Leinster, and Clare likely to be dry with some sunshine, northerly winds 15-30 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C. ... Rest of Ireland likely to stay cloudy with residual showers, clearing later afternoon, winds NNW 10-20 mph, highs near 14 C.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY ... looks like a dry, cool pattern with lows 2-5 C and highs 13-15 C in northeast winds dropping off to light at night. Some isolated frost possible.

NEXT WEEK ... warming up gradually with showers by mid-week.

Hurricane Igor is now starting extra-tropical transition but will remain at cat-1 hurricane strength for about 24 hours as it lashes southeast Newfoundland (the Avalon peninsula). The core of the storm is now expected to travel north into the Canadian eastern arctic but will spin off a frontal system and low that will approach Ireland next week.

Lisa could form at any moment now west of Cape Verde, but the models have no clear solution on a track or evolution; the storm I was mentioning for the Caribbean may actually form somewhere closer to there while Lisa dawdles around in the ocean south of Madeira (assuming the name doesn't go to the other storm first).

Today (meaning Monday 20th) here was cloudy with morning showers, a few afternoon sunny breaks, and a high of 18 C. Another very warm spell is developing for the east coast of the USA, and highs could reach 30 C at times this week.
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22-09-2010, 06:29   #1529
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TODAY ... heavy showers, some of which may become thundery, will bring a further 10-15 mms of rain to eastern counties this morning. More thundery showers will develop near the west coast and move gradually towards central counties (central from north to south, that is) ... these will bring more hit or miss 5-10 mm rainfalls ... in between these outbreaks there could be some warm sunshine for a short time and highs near 20 C ... in the rain temperatures will be closer to 17 C. Rather misty and quite humid for most areas, with some hill fog persisting. Winds generally SW 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT ... further showers bringing 3-5 mms of rain, mild and foggy with light westerly winds, lows 12-14 C.

THURSDAY ... showers may continue for a while in Leinster and east Ulster, with 3-5 mms further rainfall, temperatures steady near 15 C. The western two thirds of the country will begin to dry out with just isolated drizzly showers arriving in some coastal areas on northwest winds, but there will be some sunshine especially in the central inland counties. Highs will be generally near 15 C. Winds becoming NW 15-25 mph, feeling chilly.

FRIDAY ... after a rather chilly start under partly cloudy skies, the day will feature extensive low cloud with some breaks and partly sunny conditions in some areas, drizzle on some higher terrain. Winds will continue northerly at about 20 mph. Lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

WEEKEND ... both days should be dry and partly sunny with cold, frosty mornings, lows -1 to +3 C (possibly lower in the usual spots), fog patches, and highs generally 12-14 C in light northeast veering to southeast breezes.

NEXT WEEK is looking mild and showery again with southerly winds returning, temperatures mostly 14-17 C by day, nights near 8 C.

Igor proved to be a damaging storm for eastern Newfoundland but is now racing north towards the southern tip of Greenland. Meanwhile, some heavy thunderstorms erupted from a separate disturbance over the Great Lakes. South of these storms it turned very warm again, with highs into the 32-33 C range in Ohio, more like 27 C around Washington DC and 23 C in NYC. Around here we had sunshine and cool temperatures with a high of about 15 C.

Advance note so I won't forget, full moon occurs 1017h summer time on Thursday. We passed the planet Jupiter yesterday and so you'll find that planet near the full moon tonight if you find any clear breaks. It will appear below the moon (around midnight both will be high in the south).
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23-09-2010, 06:38   #1530
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Full moon occurs today at 1017h summer time (0917 GMT). The planet Jupiter can be easily seen near the Moon tonight, and it's close to its maximum brightness. While the Moon moves along in its monthly orbit, Jupiter will remain a prominent midnight-sky object all through the autumn, high in the south (not to be confused with Venus, low in the west at sunset and about to disappear as it moves in front of the Sun in October.

TODAY ... A cluster of heavy showers has moved through Galway and is heading generally southeast; counties in its path can expect 5-15 mms of rain as it moves through later this morning (early afternoon southeast). A few other showers may develop near this frontal trough, and temperatures ahead of this feature will stay around 15-17 C while they will fall to about 13-14 C in a northerly wind of 15-30 mph once the trough passes. This cooler air mass will be largely overcast with scattered light showers but one or two heavier bursts of rain could develop.

TONIGHT ... cloudy with some clear intervals, just a few light residual showers near the east coast, lows falling to 5-7 C on average, but closer to 10 C east coast. Winds NNW 15-25 mph. Some isolated fog patches likely.

FRIDAY ... cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated light showers, winds N 10-20 mph except 20-30 mph over the east coast and Irish Sea. Highs 13-15 C.

SATURDAY ... a widespread morning frost with fog patches, lows -2 to +2 C and possibly as low as -4 C in a few spots. Sunny during the day, once any fog or low cloud disperses, and highs 13-15 C. Chilly again by evening. Light northeast winds.

SUNDAY ... another widespread frost likely, lows -3 to +2 C, also widespread fog forming in rural areas, gradually clearing during the day, highs 13-15 C under sunny skies by mid-afternoon. Some increase in cloud southwest, very light southeast winds.

MONDAY ... cloudy, some light rain mostly in western counties, milder. Highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... showery, possibly another interval of heavy rain, mild, highs generally 17-18 C.

Igor may be post-tropical but it managed to give a station in southern Greenland wind gusts to 82 knots on Wednesday (this was partly a katabatic effect from air rushing downslope from glaciers). Now the remnant low is heading towards Baffin Island. Part of the frontal system has developed into a new low heading slowly east towards Ireland and so the rain next week will have that connection with Igor. Meanwhile, on the east coast of the U.S., temperatures soared as high as 35 C at Washington DC, but surprisingly that was not a daily record (it was 37 C in 1895 on 22 September). And in a much cooler air mass, we enjoyed some sunshine and highs near 17 C here.
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