The Irish Times have an interesting little article this morning- claiming that an expected 22k completions will not happen this year year- because of the slowdown in house price increases- and arguing that the slowdown in price rises is justification for extending the First Time Buyers rebate scheme beyond its 31-12-19 end-date.
The suggested 21k units they expect to be built in 2019- is an increase of almost 14% in the number of units completed in 2018- and by the admission of the article- the major factor putting a brake on the increase in numbers of units finished- is a lack of capacity in the sector- and not the prices of units- aka they are undermining their own argument- which suggests that the main driver in a slowdown in the increase in numbers of units delivered- is a plateauing in house prices- when this patently is not the case.
Developers want their cake- and they want to eat it- buyers be damned.
Fact of the matter is- we now have volume sales of both new and secondhand property- and the very fact that we have volume out there- is acting as a dampner on abnormal price increases (to the extent that the traditional location-location-location is once again asserting itself as the larger determinent of house prices- and whether or not they are continuing to increase- or falling).
Irish prices are far out of kilter with Irish salaries- the only thing that is saving us to a certain extent- is the fact the Central Bank rules were rigorously adhered to by the sector- that is- those rules have saved a lot of people from their own worse excesses.
Its good to see some normalcy return to the market (in terms of volume of both new and secondhand properties). Hopefully it heralds a little more sanity on the parts of both buyers and sellers.