Long term WFH and impact on property

Nermal · 13-05-2020 10:45pm

I vividly remember talking heads after 9/11 declaring that tall buildings would no longer be built, because people would refuse to work in them.

This will be a blip in a multi-generational trend to urbanisation. No more.

To those dreaming of country piles: if we actually try to hit 7% PA carbon reduction targets rather than just pretending, you will be hankering for a two-bed apartment in short order.

hometruths · 13-05-2020 10:50pm

AdamD wrote: »

Whilst this will become more prevalent I have a few issues:

So I can imagine most places becoming flexible and offering a couple of days a week from home but not full time.

Companies still have leases to fulfil, lots won't plan for major changes whilst they are still paying for a big office - Of course but there are leases being renewed every month. The decision will come into focus as the renewal draws nearer.
Its about to become an employers market with large unemployment, so the worker who wants to push for WFH may not have a choice unless it also suits the employer - agreed, this is only going to happen if it is the employer pushing for WFH, which I think will they do in increasing numbers.
Not everyone actually wants to WFH anyway. Our office are currently conducting a poll, will be interesting to see the results. From talking to people I think it will vary largely based on age groups. The younger people actually would rather be in the office for the social element - agreed but if employers are pushing for WFH in an employers market, that will drive the change. Agree re the younger people, my reasoning is entirely based on those in 30s planning settling down/families etc.
How do you bring in new staff if everyone's working from home? Someone made a good point in the other thread - part of the reason this is working fine for most offices is because of the relationships which had been previously made, how will that happen now? - Productive WFH will become a prized skill that employees hone, get references for. There is software that can track it and get metrics to measure it by. Bringing in new employees always has carried an element of risk. This is no different.
There are tasks and projects which will simply be performed better if people can meet up and discuss them in person - of course just as there are tasks that are performed better if people are left alone to get on with them. It is not going to work for every job/industry/employer etc.

hometruths · 13-05-2020 10:54pm

The Student wrote: »

You still have to pay it, if you don't you are sued for breach of contract.

Completely agree.

Hence if you are looking at signing a renewal of a 25 year contract for the second largest business expense you have, you'll think long and hard about if your business is one of those that operates perfectly well with employees WFH.

Hence why I said in the OP, don't think about 3 months, think about what it might be like in 3 years, or in 30 years?

Mike3287 · 13-05-2020 11:00pm

denartha wrote: »

Twitter announced today that going forward anyone who wants to work from home can do so.

In my own case, 100% of my job can be done remotely. I've been doing so since March 13th. Most likely will be until September 1st at the earliest.

If I could continue to do so, i could move closer to family and pay a third of the rent i currently am for somewhere twice the size, if not bigger.

Why would they pay you good money to do a job remotely that could be done in another country cheaper?

It will be a bloodbath imo if wfm is widespread

hometruths · 13-05-2020 11:06pm

Mike3287 wrote: »

Why would they pay you good money to do a job remotely that could be done in another country cheaper?

It will be a bloodbath imo if wfm is widespread

That is likely to be a problem one way or another.

i know this is not exactly what you're talking about but it has been happening in IT offices for years under the noses of managers. At least with WFH they'll be looking out for it!

A security check on a US company has reportedly revealed one of its staff was outsourcing his work to China.

The software developer, in his 40s, is thought to have spent his workdays surfing the web, watching cat videos on YouTube and browsing Reddit and eBay.

He reportedly paid just a fifth of his six-figure salary to a company based in Shenyang to do his job.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-21043693

GreeBo · 13-05-2020 11:08pm

awec wrote: »

Yea, you're out of touch.

This isn't how it works in the real world.

It is though, just maybe not in the industry or roles you are familiar with.
Saying that the world is not one way based on your personal experience is a stretch.

heroics wrote: »

There are benefits to companies in this approach as office space is expensive and if all of your staff wfh 1 day a week you need 20% less office space for example. As more companies move to cloud based services like O365 etc it becomes even easier for employees to work remote and as they are paying for the cloud based services anyway it’s no added cost to remote working.

There is no doubt that where previously some companies had zero support for WFH it is now more likely to be permitted, but that is very different to agreeing to permanent WFH.

Everyone is deciding that the issue around working from home is somehow access to corporate networks. Those problems were solved decades ago and yet here we still are.
There are some things that are critical to success over the long term that cannot be replicated with everyone working remotely.

Ask anyone in IT if it's easier to work with a local or remote dev team for example.

In any case, all your staff working one day a week from home will do nothing to property prices, which is presumably the point of this thread.

Peterx wrote: »

These are the cohort (cohort - the covid press conference's favourite word) who will press hard to work remotely in their home place for the likes of the newer tech companies.

Tech companies like Google who are buying and leasing property like mad? WFH is hardly a new concept for them, so why does this modern tech giant need so many buildings?

hometruths · 13-05-2020 11:12pm

GreeBo wrote: »

In any case, all your staff working one day a week from home will do nothing to property prices, which is presumably the point of this thread.

Yes, that's the point of the thread, and I agree that one day a week is not going make any difference.

How do you see the working from home landscape in 30 years time and with what impact on prices?

Klonker · 13-05-2020 11:53pm

I'm already looking to relocate from Dublin to my hometown in the Midlands and hope to do so in the next 18 months, hopefully sooner. Was always my plan and the current situation I think will speed this up. I'm kind of lucky in that my company already allowed remote working 2 days a week before current situation and the whole department has been remote working full time since mid March and going rather smoothly. I plan to work from home at least 3 days a week once I move.

I think my biggest problems will be if I go to transfer teams in the future, I think I'll have to make myself available in the office more regularly for the first few weeks for training etc. Would also be more difficult get a job somewhere else if applying I think but overall I think these would be 2 small issues.

I know a few others in my company doing similar so I think this will be popular, especially as people get the stage of having children.

heroics · 14-05-2020 12:04am

GreeBo wrote: »

It is though, just maybe not in the industry or roles you are familiar with.
Saying that the world is not one way based on your personal experience is a stretch.

There is no doubt that where previously some companies had zero support for WFH it is now more likely to be permitted, but that is very different to agreeing to permanent WFH.

Everyone is deciding that the issue around working from home is somehow access to corporate networks. Those problems were solved decades ago and yet here we still are.
There are some things that are critical to success over the long term that cannot be replicated with everyone working remotely.

Ask anyone in IT if it's easier to work with a local or remote dev team for example.

In any case, all your staff working one day a week from home will do nothing to property prices, which is presumably the point of this thread.

Tech companies like Google who are buying and leasing property like mad? WFH is hardly a new concept for them, so why does this modern tech giant need so many buildings?

I personally would prefer a mix of wfh and office based (2 days office would be ideal). The team I work with are already spread across a number of sites so don’t see most of them week to week anyway so wfh makes no real difference.

With regards to property the realisation by more companies that wfh is an option means that remote working from cheaper locations should become more common. Even if you had to go to the office 1 or 2 days every so often the longer commute would be offset by the cheaper accommodation etc.

hometruths · 14-05-2020 12:14am

New York Times has an interesting article on the subject:

Even after the crisis eases, companies may let workers stay home. That would affect an entire ecosystem, from transit to restaurants to shops. Not to mention the tax base.

David Kenny, the chief executive at Nielsen, said the company plans to convert its New York offices to team meeting spaces where workers gather maybe once or twice a week.

“If you are coming and working at your desk, you certainly could do that from home,” Mr. Kenny said. “We have leases that are coming due, and it’s absolutely driving those kinds of decisions.’’

“I have done an about-face on this,” he added.

James Gorman, the Morgan Stanley chief executive, declined a request for an interview. But he told Bloomberg that the company had “proven we can operate with no footprint. That tells you an enormous amount about where people need to be physically.”

“The world is going to be different when we come out of quarantine, and our habits and how we use office space will absolutely be different,” said Gavin Fraser, the company’s chief executive. “It really took the lockdown, if you will, to accelerate those trends.”

Well worth a read for anybody interested in the subject.

Hubertj · 14-05-2020 7:40am

if wfh does increase significantly short term and people move to smaller towns, it will be interesting to see what towns/areas have infrastructure to support - schools, Creche’s, transport links, public amenities etc. As i understand it there is a shortage of school places in parts of the country?

hometruths · 14-05-2020 8:01am

Hubertj wrote: »

if wfh does increase significantly short term and people move to smaller towns, it will be interesting to see what towns/areas have infrastructure to support - schools, Creche’s, transport links, public amenities etc. As i understand it there is a shortage of school places in parts of the country?

again that will develop over time as the demand for infrastructure increases over time.
re schools I think Dublin has one of biggest shortage problems.

smurgen · 14-05-2020 8:14am

Nermal wrote: »

I vividly remember talking heads after 9/11 declaring that tall buildings would no longer be built, because people would refuse to work in them.

This will be a blip in a multi-generational trend to urbanisation. No more.

To those dreaming of country piles: if we actually try to hit 7% PA carbon reduction targets rather than just pretending, you will be hankering for a two-bed apartment in short order.

Who said country? It could mean a regrowth of small towns.

GreeBo · 14-05-2020 8:42am

heroics wrote: »

I personally would prefer a mix of wfh and office based (2 days office would be ideal). The team I work with are already spread across a number of sites so don’t see most of them week to week anyway so wfh makes no real difference.

With regards to property the realisation by more companies that wfh is an option means that remote working from cheaper locations should become more common. Even if you had to go to the office 1 or 2 days every so often the longer commute would be offset by the cheaper accommodation etc.

That's the way it has been for years for many companies though and it didn't prompt many people to move.
All I'm expecting to see is more people WFH a few days, not some mad exodus out of Dublin.

1 day in the office versus 1 day at home is a huge shift.

GreeBo · 14-05-2020 8:43am

Hubertj wrote: »

if wfh does increase significantly short term and people move to smaller towns, it will be interesting to see what towns/areas have infrastructure to support - schools, Creche’s, transport links, public amenities etc. As i understand it there is a shortage of school places in parts of the country?

100%, it's not there
Expecting people to move before it is available is crazy imo.

Drifter50 · 14-05-2020 8:53am

I would be of the view to be careful of what you wish for. If wfh becomes widespread especially in our small country, why not lose all the expensive Irish employees and use workers in cheaper countries to do the same work. Surely the larger companies will take this as an opportunity to sideline expensive employees and manage expensive costs off their accounts

hometruths · 14-05-2020 8:56am

GreeBo wrote: »

100%, it's not there
Expecting people to move before it is available is crazy imo.

The chronic shortage of secondary school places in north Dublin has reached "crisis point" and is causing parents huge stress, Fingal TD Darragh O'Brien has warned.

And the Fianna Fail Spokesperson on Housing, Planning and Local Government says additional secondary school places are "urgently needed" in the north county.

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/school-shortages-dublin-crisis-point-17410711

Sure, they should stay in Dublin where the problem is worse.

Mike3287 · 14-05-2020 9:03am

Drifter50 wrote: »

I would be of the view to be careful of what you wish for. If wfh becomes widespread especially in our small country, why not lose all the expensive Irish employees and use workers in cheaper countries to do the same work. Surely the larger companies will take this as an opportunity to sideline expensive employees and manage expensive costs off their accounts

Exactly what's going to happen

When the dust settles on this mess, consumer confidence is going to be rock bottom, every company is going to feel that pain and salaries are usually a companies biggest greatest expense

Why not reduce it?

I am wfh now, in IT and loving it right now, but I am not so naive to think it could be short lived

hometruths · 14-05-2020 9:23am

Drifter50 wrote: »

I would be of the view to be careful of what you wish for. If wfh becomes widespread especially in our small country, why not lose all the expensive Irish employees and use workers in cheaper countries to do the same work. Surely the larger companies will take this as an opportunity to sideline expensive employees and manage expensive costs off their accounts

Absolutely undoubtedly what they will do. But I don't think anybody is wishing for that. Just recognising the reality of what is going to happen.

Sofa King Great · 14-05-2020 9:36am

Will working from home change the criteria for hiring someone? If you want to work from home will you need to demonstrate that you have appropriate working space as opposed to your kitchen table? Will enployers avoid people with kids or a stay at home spouse because it will impact productivity?

We are not "working from home" at the moment - we are working during a pandemic. The things people are accepting at the moment in terms of turnaround time, patchy zoom meetings, kids interrupting will not be sustainable for the long term.

mvl · 14-05-2020 11:10am

Sofa King Great wrote: »

Will working from home change the criteria for hiring someone? If you want to work from home will you need to demonstrate that you have appropriate working space as opposed to your kitchen table? Will enployers avoid people with kids or a stay at home spouse because it will impact productivity? .

I'd assume so, same as until today (re procedures to allow wfh in the companies that have been doing that): proper office arrangements, with desk cabinets and stuff, proper broadband (so many are complaining their broadband is not good enough - then imo wfh is not ok)
And, as someone said on other thread, ppl may need to prove childcare arrangements too (thank god I am out of that pool now) ...
Some disruption it is, with winners and losers ...
- But I would be interested in the opportunities it uncovers. Might get the Dublin salary while working from my mortgaged house in Midlands, or even for cheaper in eastern europe

whippet · 14-05-2020 11:37am

I've been working from home (about 90% of the time) for the last two years and my wife has been doing it full time for the last 10 years.

We were living in Dublin and moved out rural about 8 years ago - the compromise was that I'd have the commute and she would be able to do the school run etc.

it was all well and good until the recession ended and the commute became impossible - fortunately I was able to persuade my boss that I was able to remote work for a couple of days a week - eventually it became clear that WFH was a great option and 2 years ago the whole company was given the option and tools to do it.

It has been a game changer - I am living where I want to live, work where I want to work and can actively get involved in the local community as there is no commuting.

Broadband is an issue - I was on a really poor copper line - at best 6mb down and upload was non existent. However - we were still able to work on that speed - both of us. It only became a real problem when the lock down came in to effect and it just got worse with contention on the line. Fortunately fibre had just become available so now it's installed and everything is singing again.

The benefits to the local economy with Wfh can be immense - we spend more money and time locally; from lunches, coffees, shopping etc.

It makes sense and rather than spend money on building roads bringing more people in to the city centres - spend it on broadband, small community hot desk offices and maybe even tax breaks for companies who facilitate WFH

hometruths · 14-05-2020 11:44am

whippet wrote: »

I've been working from home (about 90% of the time) for the last two years and my wife has been doing it full time for the last 10 years.

We were living in Dublin and moved out rural about 8 years ago - the compromise was that I'd have the commute and she would be able to do the school run etc.

it was all well and good until the recession ended and the commute became impossible - fortunately I was able to persuade my boss that I was able to remote work for a couple of days a week - eventually it became clear that WFH was a great option and 2 years ago the whole company was given the option and tools to do it.

It has been a game changer - I am living where I want to live, work where I want to work and can actively get involved in the local community as there is no commuting.

Broadband is an issue - I was on a really poor copper line - at best 6mb down and upload was non existent. However - we were still able to work on that speed - both of us. It only became a real problem when the lock down came in to effect and it just got worse with contention on the line. Fortunately fibre had just become available so now it's installed and everything is singing again.

The benefits to the local economy with Wfh can be immense - we spend more money and time locally; from lunches, coffees, shopping etc.

It makes sense and rather than spend money on building roads bringing more people in to the city centres - spend it on broadband, small community hot desk offices and maybe even tax breaks for companies who facilitate WFH

In that time have you noticed anything of an uptick in the area you're in? i.e more people moving their in favour of Dublin?

And in those 8 years have the amenities improved? (apart from the broadband!)

awec · 14-05-2020 11:55am

Sofa King Great wrote: »

Will working from home change the criteria for hiring someone? If you want to work from home will you need to demonstrate that you have appropriate working space as opposed to your kitchen table? Will enployers avoid people with kids or a stay at home spouse because it will impact productivity?

We are not "working from home" at the moment - we are working during a pandemic. The things people are accepting at the moment in terms of turnaround time, patchy zoom meetings, kids interrupting will not be sustainable for the long term.

It is more difficult to mentor people in a remote environment, so yes hiring will change a bit.

The bar for someone working remotely has always been a bit higher, there's nothing new there.

[Deleted User] · 14-05-2020 11:58am

A friend of mine started a new job a fortnight everything from final interview, to onboarding and initial training happened from home.

As gets repeated it doesn't work for all companies and all roles, but some companies are already embracing it.

hometruths · 14-05-2020 12:01pm

denartha wrote: »

A friend of mine started a new job a fortnight everything from final interview, to onboarding and initial training happened from home.

As gets repeated it doesn't work for all companies and all roles, but some companies are already embracing it.

Indeed and 15 years ago people would have scoffed at the idea of a skype job interview but it was commonplace even before the Covid lockdown.

[Deleted User] · 14-05-2020 12:02pm

Drifter50 wrote: »

I would be of the view to be careful of what you wish for. If wfh becomes widespread especially in our small country, why not lose all the expensive Irish employees and use workers in cheaper countries to do the same work. Surely the larger companies will take this as an opportunity to sideline expensive employees and manage expensive costs off their accounts

That happened in a company I worked for. Downsized the dublin contingent from 300 to about 30 opting for India based workers instead. It lasted about 6 months and the Dublin office was upsized again. Often times, you get what you pay for.

whippet · 14-05-2020 12:07pm

schmittel wrote: »

In that time have you noticed anything of an uptick in the area you're in? i.e more people moving their in favour of Dublin?

And in those 8 years have the amenities improved? (apart from the broadband!)

There was plenty of amenities there already - GAA, Soccer, pubs, a couple of small restaurants / cafes, golf courses etc. and your a 5-10 min drive from a large town.

The area is a small town close enough to a provincial town - so schools are fine, about a 1km walk to the national school and there are plenty of secondary options via bus, cycling etc.

What I have notices is that there are quite a few remote workers and you get to know them in local coffee shops etc.

[Deleted User] · 14-05-2020 12:11pm

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed and 15 years ago people would have scoffed at the idea of a skype job interview but it was commonplace even before the Covid lockdown.

Actually 10 years ago I was hired via a skype interview.

hello2020 · 14-05-2020 12:43pm

Drifter50 wrote: »

I would be of the view to be careful of what you wish for. If wfh becomes widespread especially in our small country, why not lose all the expensive Irish employees and use workers in cheaper countries to do the same work. Surely the larger companies will take this as an opportunity to sideline expensive employees and manage expensive costs off their accounts

This. Remote working means Business will move jobs from Dublin to cheaper places like India (not to some counties in Ireland).
Already large MNCs like IBM, Microsoft, Oracle, Accenture etc have more employees in India than say Ireland or any European countries.
IBM alone employs some 130,000 in India !

Long term WFH and impact on property

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