Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro · 31-12-2019 1:05am #1

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

Billythekid19 · 31-12-2019 2:20pm

davedub2015 wrote: »

What are peoples predictions for property in Dublin in 2020? Increase in prices or stay as they are?

Expecting a massive correction in the market. 10 per cent decrease and a downward curve for the next 3/4 years.

Zenify · 31-12-2019 3:24pm

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Expecting a massive correction in the market. 10 per cent decrease and a downward curve for the next 3/4 years.

2.4% down for Dublin in the last quarter according to daft. If that continues you'll see your 10% in one year.

handlemaster · 31-12-2019 4:55pm

Zenify wrote: »

2.4% down for Dublin in the last quarter according to daft. If that continues you'll see your 10% in one year.

Will it continue? And why would it ?

Arthur Daley · 31-12-2019 4:59pm

The Irish economy is such a seesaw balanced on the housing market that if you saw 10% drop the momentum would develop into a 30% drop, and the country would be back in recession. It really is that much of a rollercoaster for sentiment.

The_Conductor · 31-12-2019 5:25pm

As is customary- I've closed off the 2019 Property Market thread- and am opening the 2020 thread.

Have fun folk!

Zenify · 31-12-2019 5:52pm

handlemaster wrote: »

Will it continue?

Nobody knows if it will continue. Anyone going to viewings and bidding over the last while saw this coming way before the official stats showed it.

I haven't seen any uptake in the market recently which will be shown in the results of the next quarter report.

handlemaster wrote: »

And why would it ?

Well if we knew exactly why they have fallen, we could ask if anything has changed to stop it? People may say lending rules or extra supply or Brexit have cooled the market. Have any of them changed to stop the current trend? There was an article about builders reducing supply as the demand drops but there are some major developments starting to come on stream over 2020. Cherrywood being one that is beside me with a few thousand properties. It will go a long way to house people in the area and anyone working near the luas.

ZX7R · 31-12-2019 5:53pm

I was reading an article in work in a news paper article I think it was the indo before Christmas anyways Ulster bank was quoted in it saying that official statics realised don't match up with there figures they have
and don't see any drop in Price's in housing in Dublin and Ireland,only a slight drop in commercial building prices.
Article says they even see a increase in the first quarter of 2020.
Who knows what will happen.

Blue Badger · 31-12-2019 5:59pm

As someone hoping to be in a position to purchase by mid-2020 (currently looking at properties within commuting distance of Dublin and am living like a student again) I absolutely hope they do come down!

Personally... I'm expecting stagnation for much of 2020 within Dublin. Who knows with Brexit but tbh I can't see them reaching a trade agreement by end of 2020.

It's nice to dream that there will be a fall though

handlemaster · 31-12-2019 6:25pm

With Brexit wrapped up end of jan and the main negotiations starting after .. would be interesting to see where the market goes

hmmm · 31-12-2019 8:26pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Ulster bank was quoted in it saying that official statics realised don't match up with there figures they have
and don't see any drop in Price's in housing in Dublin and Ireland,only a slight drop in commercial building prices.
Article says they even see a increase in the first quarter of 2020.
Who knows what will happen.

The property market is a whole series of individual little markets. Statistics are useful, but they're a bit blunt.

We're certainly seeing a drop in the selling prices of very expensive houses, which is having a disproportionate impact on some statistics I think.

The rest of the market looks largely stable, and so much seems to depend on the condition of the houses - very few people want a "fixer-upper". There was certainly a drop of a few percent across most property in Q4 2018/Q1 2019, but there was a slight increase in prices from the middle of the year in certain parts of the market. There are still a lot of people looking for mid-tier housing, although demand has shifted slightly away from the 3/4 bed semi-D in commuter-ville.

Builders will stop building new houses if property prices fall, and supply will fall in the new-build market.

The_Conductor · 31-12-2019 9:14pm

The property market may be a convoluted series of little markets- and volume sales in some of those segments may have an outsized effect on the overall market statistics- as seems to be the case.

The fact of the matter is- we're hitting overall property transactions of 76-78k units per annum- of which only 10k units are new units hitting the open market (the other 12.5k of new units are being bought up by institutional landlords of one ilk or another).

The 10k units are not particularly volatile in price- the 55k second hand sales- are where the volatility is happening.

Margins for new builds are currently in the region of 14-15%- however, this is falling as non-labour costs are increasing faster than the capacity of the sector to absorb those costs.

I'd love to see a breakdown of what the secondhand sales are- where they are, whether its people trading up and down or executor sales etc.

The 500k+ market has been incredibly soft for a few years now- however, there hasn't been an appreciable volume of high value units such that it would have a disproportionate effect on the market- perhaps that has now changed?

The other thing that a lot of people are noting in the forum- is the exceptionally poor quality of a lot of the secondhand stock that is coming onto the market. Once upon a time people were investing time, money and effort in trying to showcase secondhand units before selling them- this no longer seems to be the case- regardless of what you spend on a unit- you'll not get it back in an increased selling price- so its simply throwing money down the gutter to do them up.

One way or the other- the bigger changes will be in the secondhand market- because that is where the volume sales are happening- and the biggest change in this sector- is people abandoning the age old practice of doing up houses before selling them............

Either way- don't see any massive changes- gentle falls are already radiating out from the greater Dublin area- they haven't hit some of the regional markets (yet) but probably will make their presence felt more and more as the year progresses.

Some regulatory or tax changes- could vastly increase the supply of new units on the market- if this comes to pass- potentially frightening the institutional investors- there could be massive changes in the market.

riclad · 31-12-2019 11:00pm

i Think brexit will have an effect on the property market, more than any other factor
the irish economy does not rely on the property market,
and we have not seen reckless lending by the banks since 2009.

Sheeps · 01-01-2020 3:50am

New years resolution is to find accomodation.

JamesMason · 01-01-2020 4:04am

The_Conductor wrote: »

Some regulatory or tax changes- could vastly increase the supply of new units on the market- if this comes to pass- potentially frightening the institutional investors- there could be massive changes in the market.

Such as this, for example?

https://m.uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/google-to-end-double-irish-dutch-tax-scheme--filing-2023155?ampMode=1

OwlsZat · 01-01-2020 3:16pm

hmmm wrote: »

Builders will stop building new houses if property prices fall, and supply will fall in the new-build market.

This point is BS. How exactly are the builders going to make an income if they don't build? Lots of builders also have staff. The vast percentage will keep building with less margin to keep people in jobs and keep the finances ticking over. In practical terms they can't really stop!

Marius34 · 01-01-2020 9:13pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

This point is BS. How exactly are the builders going to make an income if they don't build? Lots of builders also have staff. The vast percentage will keep building with less margin to keep people in jobs and keep the finances ticking over. In practical terms they can't really stop!

Well, it can, and this exactly what happen on the last property price crash. Staff was laid off, residential construction output fall from 80K to 8K anually.
But with such a high lack of residential property, and low construction output, I can't imagine property price falling more than 10% anytime soon.

Padre_Pio · 01-01-2020 9:26pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Well, it can, and this exactly what happen on the last property price crash. Staff was laid off, residential construction output fall from 80K to 8K anually.
But with such a high lack of residential property, and low construction output, I can't imagine property price falling more than 10% anytime soon.

Looking at what's available, I agree with this.

I don't think it'll be a shock 10% fall either. Every parish in this country has it's own supply and demand equation too so it all depends where you're looking.

TheSheriff · 01-01-2020 9:31pm

Predictions for 2020 is a slow decline of a few %..... I can't see a massive drop happening (as much as we would love it to happen) but based on the viewings we have been too over the past 6 months, there have been a massive drop off in the numbers attending viewings, particularly for second hand homes.

In my own circle of friends who are now all looking to buy properties, they have no interest in a second hand home with any work required. Turn key appears to be king at the moment, with new builds obviously capitalizing on this.

OwlsZat · 01-01-2020 11:18pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Well, it can, and this exactly what happen on the last property price crash. Staff was laid off, residential construction output fall from 80K to 8K anually.
But with such a high lack of residential property, and low construction output, I can't imagine property price falling more than 10% anytime soon.

A property price crash isn't falling prices, it's a crash. I don't think anyone sees another property price crash coming again so soon. This time the financial footings are more solid.

Sheeps · 01-01-2020 11:33pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

A property price crash isn't falling prices, it's a crash. I don't think anyone sees another property price crash coming again so soon. This time the financial footings are more solid.

They aren't necissarily solid. Our entire economy hinges on FDI which is at risk once the OECD decide which way to go with global tax policy alignment. If our economy doesn't diversify then there's a very sever risk of a massive housing crash (amongst every other type of crash), which will be far larger and far more permanent than before.

In the medium term there's quite a large chance house prices will decline massively.

Padre_Pio · 01-01-2020 11:36pm

Sheeps wrote: »

They aren't necissarily solid. Our entire economy hinges on FDI which is at risk once the OECD decide which way to go with global tax policy alignment. If our economy doesn't diversify then there's a very sever risk of a massive housing crash (amongst every other type of crash), which will be far larger and far more permanent than before.

In the medium term there's quite a large chance house prices will decline massively.

There's absolutely no guarantee that will ever happen, and if it does, it'll take a decade to implement.
The EU can't implement a universal corporate tax regime given the economic disparity between member states.

Sheeps · 02-01-2020 12:10am

Padre_Pio wrote: »

There's absolutely no guarantee that will ever happen, and if it does, it'll take a decade to implement.
The EU can't implement a universal corporate tax regime given the economic disparity between member states.

I never said a universal corporate tax regime, I said global tax alignment. I also never said the EU, I said the OECD.

Empty_Space · 02-01-2020 1:22am

OwlsZat wrote: »

A property price crash isn't falling prices, it's a crash. I don't think anyone sees another property price crash coming again so soon. This time the financial footings are more solid.

Yes everything is solid, worldwide debt is nothing to worry about.

The_Conductor · 02-01-2020 8:12am

TheSheriff wrote: »

In my own circle of friends who are now all looking to buy properties, they have no interest in a second hand home with any work required. Turn key appears to be king at the moment, with new builds obviously capitalizing on this.

This is precisely why prices are falling.
We are building roughly 22k units per annum.
Of this just over 10k units are hitting the open market- the other 12k are being sold to institutional investors of one type or another.
The other 54,000 odd units being sold in the market are the secondhand units.
People are increasingly not investing in improvements in secondhand properties- as the investment is not reflected in a commensurate increase in asking price.

So- the market is being dragged down- by secondhand units- because no-one is happy to make the investment to bring the units that are hitting the market up to modern specs.

The fall in prices could be arrested if some changes were made to, for example, the rules governing the grant for first time buyers allowing them avail of the government largess on secondhand units.

Everyone wants the new units- while there is a dearth of people chasing the secondhand units- which are being sold in increasingly shabby and dilapidated states.

L1011 · 02-01-2020 9:56am

JamesMason wrote: »

Such as this, for example?

https://m.uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/google-to-end-double-irish-dutch-tax-scheme--filing-2023155?ampMode=1

That's not news. The scheme becomes impossible to do shortly so they'd have to end it

Some correction to our GNP figures from that sort of distortion that isn't bringing tax revenue is welcome anyway

TheSheriff · 02-01-2020 10:16am

The_Conductor wrote: »

This is precisely why prices are falling.
We are building roughly 22k units per annum.
Of this just over 10k units are hitting the open market- the other 12k are being sold to institutional investors of one type or another.
The other 54,000 odd units being sold in the market are the secondhand units.
People are increasingly not investing in improvements in secondhand properties- as the investment is not reflected in a commensurate increase in asking price.

So- the market is being dragged down- by secondhand units- because no-one is happy to make the investment to bring the units that are hitting the market up to modern specs.

The fall in prices could be arrested if some changes were made to, for example, the rules governing the grant for first time buyers allowing them avail of the government largess on secondhand units.

Everyone wants the new units- while there is a dearth of people chasing the secondhand units- which are being sold in increasingly shabby and dilapidated states.

What I would add however, is that often sellers of second hand dwellings have completely unrealistic prices.

We are primarily viewing second hand dwellings, and if something in turn key / good condition comes up which is priced reasonably it often has offers on Day 1.

There is a raft of property out there which is overpriced e.g. recently viewing a house in Leixslip for 400k, it needed a good 50k worth of work to it. Offered 380k which was immediately rejected. House is on the market a few months.

If you go walk five minutes up the road there were new builds available starting at 430k, turn key etc.

People need to be realistic with asking prices also for second hand dwellings and factor the cost of a revamp into the price - this is very rarely considered.

The_Conductor · 02-01-2020 10:28am

TheSheriff wrote: »

People need to be realistic with asking prices also for second hand dwellings and factor the cost of a revamp into the price - this is very rarely considered.

Asking prices are, more often than not, fanned by local estate agents- who seem impervious to reality on the ground- and intent on fanning the flames of unreasonable/unrealistic expectations with their initial appraisals (in the expectation that once they have the property on their books, they can beat sense into the sellers- despite the fact that it was they who gave them unreasonable expectations to begin with).

Sellers have copped that spending 50k on doing up a property- does not add 50k to the price- and are realistically foregoing this step of the process. Increasingly- a lick of paint is as far as it goes.

The reason prices are falling- is the people who actually want to shift property- are pricing it to shift- which is dragging the market down (cognisant of the fact that there is 5 times more secondhand property on the open market- than new units).

This reality disconnect- is falling- people are copping that prices are artificially inflated- and if/when they eventually do bite the bullet- increasingly, they are accepting more realistic offers from prospective purchasers.

That said- the state of a considerable amount of the secondhand property on the market is atrocious. Its mind boggling the state of some of the units that are being offloaded- increasingly by BTL landlords who are getting the hell out of the sector.

Dolbhad · 02-01-2020 11:15am

The_Conductor wrote: »

Asking prices are, more often than not, fanned by local estate agents- who seem impervious to reality on the ground- and intent on fanning the flames of unreasonable/unrealistic expectations with their initial appraisals (in the expectation that once they have the property on their books, they can beat sense into the sellers- despite the fact that it was they who gave them unreasonable expectations to begin with).

Sellers have copped that spending 50k on doing up a property- does not add 50k to the price- and are realistically foregoing this step of the process. Increasingly- a lick of paint is as far as it goes.

The reason prices are falling- is the people who actually want to shift property- are pricing it to shift- which is dragging the market down (cognisant of the fact that there is 5 times more secondhand property on the open market- than new units).

This reality disconnect- is falling- people are copping that prices are artificially inflated- and if/when they eventually do bite the bullet- increasingly, they are accepting more realistic offers from prospective purchasers.

That said- the state of a considerable amount of the secondhand property on the market is atrocious. Its mind boggling the state of some of the units that are being offloaded- increasingly by BTL landlords who are getting the hell out of the sector.

Agree with all of this. The last few second hand homes I had viewed were either ex rentals or probate sales. Even then houses were empty for a year or two and in bad state. They were very overpriced. I had put a low offer in (to reflect what I felt the house was worth but still 40k under asking). The response from auctioneer was I am not putting that offer to client as he expects over asking. 5 months later it’s still not sold and still no offers on it. I had followed up to check in on it.

Another one had dropped 30k in asking. It was still 40k more expensive that a neighbours house that was sold early 2019 and in worse condition and smaller as no extension. It wasn’t for us but in the end they had to take another hit of 20k and sold it for same price as neighbours house that had sold a few months previously. Even second when turn key properties are rare to come across.

Actually back to looking at new builds cause whereas I felt 2018 second hand houses could be better value for the gardens which is very important to me, the way they are priced now I think new builds can offer better value for money.

Also recently look at a new build estates. Literally across the road in an older estate (built by same builder so houses are very similar) was a house for sale. 40k over than the most expensive house in the new build estate. You can’t expect the same or more money for a second hand when your competing against new builds.

lawred2 · 02-01-2020 11:18am

The_Conductor wrote: »

This is precisely why prices are falling.
We are building roughly 22k units per annum.
Of this just over 10k units are hitting the open market- the other 12k are being sold to institutional investors of one type or another.
The other 54,000 odd units being sold in the market are the secondhand units.
People are increasingly not investing in improvements in secondhand properties- as the investment is not reflected in a commensurate increase in asking price.

So- the market is being dragged down- by secondhand units- because no-one is happy to make the investment to bring the units that are hitting the market up to modern specs.

The fall in prices could be arrested if some changes were made to, for example, the rules governing the grant for first time buyers allowing them avail of the government largess on secondhand units.

Everyone wants the new units- while there is a dearth of people chasing the secondhand units- which are being sold in increasingly shabby and dilapidated states.

the asking prices for 'second hand' units need to reflect the six figure investments needed to bring them up to code...

estate agents need to wise up and start advising clients appropriately..

Interested Observer · 02-01-2020 11:30am

I went sale agreed about 12 months ago at this point and viewed so many places that were chopped up into rental units that would have needed massive work to get up to standard. We were pretty much only looking at red-brick terrace in D7/D9. It's actually a real shame to see the state some of the houses were in, a lot of them would have been nice period family properties but have been gutted of all the charm they ever had and have been left to deteriorate badly by landlords.

Property Market 2020

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