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11-09-2019, 21:44   #1
Imreoir2
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United Ireland discussion thread

The first poll in recent times (if ever?) showing a majority in NI in favour of a United Ireland has been published. The Lord Ashcroft Polls asked a series of questions on unification and Brexit and a summary of the main findings can be found below.



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45% said they would vote to stay in the UK, and 46% said they would choose to leave and join the Republic of Ireland – a lead of 51% to 49% for unification when we exclude don’t knows and those who say they would not vote. This is in fact a statistical tie and well within the margin of error. Such a result might also reflect the uncertainty and anxiety surrounding Brexit, the Irish border and its potential effect on life in the province, which could recede when the outcome is settled. Be that as it may, the result underlines what could be at stake in the quest for a workable Brexit solution on the island of Ireland.
The full results can be read here.

It goes without saying that the result is extremely tight and in itself this poll does not mean very much. That said, a poll showing a majority in NI, however slim, in favour of unification is significant and if this result turns our to the the first of a series of polls showing a similar swing to supporting unification then we could be about to enter a process that would ultimatly see a border poll held in NI. Clearly, the swing in support to unification is related to Brexit and as such it could disapate if a solution to Brexit is found. However, Brexit as an issue does not look likely to go away as a factor any time soon as the chaos it is causing to the British political system is only deepening.

Obviously one poll showing very narrow support for unification is not enough to trigger a border poll, but it does beg the question: what would be sufficient? The GFA is vague on this point, but if a trend of support for unification emerges then this is a question that will have to be answered in the not too distant future.

Our government has been heistant to say or do anything on the issue of unification in recent months and years for fear that it will negativly impact the Brexit process, however it would be of paramount importance for us to prepare should a trend of support for unification emerge in NI.
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11-09-2019, 21:54   #2
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I'm very pleased to see these poll findings and it would have been unthinkable 4 years ago to see these kinds of numbers. The key point that leaps out is that every age group under 65 shows support, and that indicates the direction of travel.

I think there needs to be a few more polls showing that this is a trend in order to prompt the NI Secretary of State to call a poll. Personally speaking I'd rather let the Scots go first in their referendum. I think should they vote Yes to independence that greatly aids the chances of a reunification poll succeeding, as the Union is pretty much done at that point.

Priority for the Irish government now should be putting in place measures to gear up for a border poll within the coming years, similar to the Brexit preparation that was done.
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12-09-2019, 02:19   #3
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Simply put it's a result of Brexit its the catalyst that's driving this whole thing because ultimately it's forcing people to wake up and choose weather to stay with a failing state and reuniting with a successful one. If Brexit shudders to a halt before crossing the cliff edge I can see things slowing down of course but if they crash out it will fuel the drive for reunfication expecially considering the economic and other advantages of rejoining the EU via reunifiation vs being stuck as part of a 3rd country with a dysfunctional goverment.

That being said the DUP needs to be called out strongly on every illogical and nonsensical argument they make and be made to own the problem of their creation.
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05-10-2019, 10:48   #4
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Originally Posted by Infini View Post
Simply put it's a result of Brexit its the catalyst that's driving this whole thing because ultimately it's forcing people to wake up and choose weather to stay with a failing state and reuniting with a successful one. If Brexit shudders to a halt before crossing the cliff edge I can see things slowing down of course but if they crash out it will fuel the drive for reunfication expecially considering the economic and other advantages of rejoining the EU via reunifiation vs being stuck as part of a 3rd country with a dysfunctional goverment.

That being said the DUP needs to be called out strongly on every illogical and nonsensical argument they make and be made to own the problem of their creation.

Just on you point about the DUP, they’re being torn apart within their own base and in media over their utterly stupid stance on brexit. They’re done for next GE *if* the other parties can sort their stuff out and make pacts to take their seats.
This today. Worth a read

https://twitter.com/sjamcbride/statu...396154882?s=21
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05-10-2019, 10:59   #5
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Originally Posted by Stop moaning ffs View Post
They’re done for next GE *if* the other parties can sort their stuff out and make pacts to take their seats.
This today. Worth a read

IF NI was a normal democracy you'd likely be right, but NI democracy is based on Usns and Themuns.



Unionists would vote for the DUP (for fear of SF becoming the biggest party) regardless of what they say or do.

The UUP are too weak to take the step change required to replace the DUP, imo.



Case in point Ian Paisley Jr would have been drummed out of any other party in a proper democracy considering what he got up to, but the DUP know he'll sail into his seat next time.
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05-10-2019, 13:28   #6
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Originally Posted by Chinese whospers View Post
IF NI was a normal democracy you'd likely be right, but NI democracy is based on Usns and Themuns.



Unionists would vote for the DUP (for fear of SF becoming the biggest party) regardless of what they say or do.

The UUP are too weak to take the step change required to replace the DUP, imo.



Case in point Ian Paisley Jr would have been drummed out of any other party in a proper democracy considering what he got up to, but the DUP know he'll sail into his seat next time.
Well they’ve all lost seats to the alliance in the last few polls (up 21 points if I remember correctly)
So the hope is they’ll be the majority party next GE. a hope is all sadly
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07-10-2019, 14:07   #7
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The main stumbling block is the DUP.
I think the DUP's days are numbered with their behaviour over Brexit. You've got the Nationalists and Unionists but I'd guess a good size of the population just want to get on with things either way and they'll feel the weight of Brexit upon them, this will not bode well for the DUP IMO.
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07-10-2019, 14:19   #8
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They are absolutely done for.

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/s...740011013?s=21
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07-10-2019, 14:32   #9
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Originally Posted by Stop moaning ffs View Post
I would not be quite so sure. They will probably lose ground to Alliance and the other Unionists parties, but they are far from done for. It depends on Brexit. If we come to a reasonable conclusion at some point in spite of Arlene and co, then the DUP will probably trundle along without any noticable dip in support in the forseeable future.
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07-10-2019, 14:37   #10
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Originally Posted by Imreoir2 View Post
I would not be quite so sure. They will probably lose ground to Alliance and the other Unionists parties, but they are far from done for. It depends on Brexit. If we come to a reasonable conclusion at some point in spite of Arlene and co, then the DUP will probably trundle along without any noticable dip in support in the forseeable future.
Well not just all the brexit stuff but the RHI report is coming, and the seemingly endless corruption investigations ongoing. They’re going to lose more votes than any other party up there come the GE.
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07-10-2019, 14:38   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Imreoir2 View Post
I would not be quite so sure. They will probably lose ground to Alliance and the other Unionists parties, but they are far from done for. It depends on Brexit. If we come to a reasonable conclusion at some point in spite of Arlene and co, then the DUP will probably trundle along without any noticable dip in support in the forseeable future.
There will be a barely noticeable change in the next election. There may be some seats closer than previous elections, but largely it'll be the same old same old. The majority of people in the North don't vote FOR a party, they vote AGAINST a party, along green/orange lines.

I say this as someone who voted SF many times when I lived in the North, not because they were the party that best represented me, but they were the party most likely to prevent the DUP taking a seat.

Sad but true, DUP and SF are pretty much bulletproof, it would take a monumental scandal, beyond anything we've ever seen (and Christ, have we seen a lot) for them to not be returned as the two largest parties.
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07-10-2019, 14:53   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stop moaning ffs View Post
Well not just all the brexit stuff but the RHI report is coming, and the seemingly endless corruption investigations ongoing. They’re going to lose more votes than any other party up there come the GE.
Yes, I see your logic, but the DUP will simply campaign on a version of...

A vote for anyone other than the DUP is a vote for SF/IRA.

And guess what, it has worked wonders for them in the past, and I don't see that changing no matter how many financial scandals.
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07-10-2019, 15:22   #13
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When hundreds of farmers start turning up at DUP hq and pouring thousands of gallons of milk on the pavement cos they can’t sell it and the banks start to repossess their farms, you’ll see change. But they’re already furious with the DUP as it is


Dr Mike Johnston CEO of Dairy Council NI (DCNI) said that current trade tariffs for exporting both raw milk and finished product would be in excess of £300m

“This tariff represents 25% of the value of our entire industry. In a sector where the margin is, at best, 3% or 4%, trade tariffs of that magnitude would wipe out the industry.
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07-10-2019, 15:27   #14
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While I'd love to see a united Ireland I'm afraid that the decades long economic boom after Brexit makes this very unlikely.

According to Daniel Hannan the Republic is likely to follow the UK out of the EU and back into a federated system of government for these islands (or as he referred to it 'rule from Westminster')
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07-10-2019, 15:28   #15
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While I'd love to see a united Ireland I'm afraid that the decades long economic boom after Brexit makes this very unlikely.

According to Daniel Hannan the Republic is likely to follow the UK out of the EU and back into a federated system of government for these islands (or as he referred to it 'rule from Westminster')
That’s never going to happen.
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