Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
19-09-2019, 08:12   #5371
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Thursday, 19 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal, but after Saturday closer to normal values (which by then would be highs near 17 C and lows around 7 C).
-- Rainfall will average near normal, but this will fall mainly during the period Sunday to Tuesday.
-- Sunshine will also average near normal, with generous amounts today and Friday, then more cloudy than average.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny, except for some persistent fog or low cloud in a few parts of the northwest, with a bit of high cloud at times, hazy and warm for most with highs 19 to 22 C.

TONIGHT will be clear and mild with a few fog patches in valleys, lows 6 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will continue hazy and warm with highs 19 to 23 C. Winds light and variable at first may become moderate southerly especially near the west coast.

SATURDAY will see the breakdown of this fine spell of weather, with increasing cloud and outbreaks of light rain, more persistent in the southwest but occasionally appearing in most other parts of the country. It will stay warm for one more day, lows near 13 C and highs in the range 19 to 22 C. Moderate southerly winds will replace the calm conditions.

SUNDAY will bring intervals of rain, 5 to 15 mm possible, with gradual clearing later in the afternoon and evening. Fresher and breezy, with lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY will have some partly cloudy intervals and some outbreaks of light rain, blustery southwest winds at times, highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with showers and highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK calls for further showers mid-week, rather cool by then, followed by a slow clearing trend for a day or two, and renewed bouts of rain and moderate to strong winds by about the weekend of 28th-29th.

Humberto lashed Bermuda last night with outer bands of its strong winds, at its core a cat-3 hurricane but Bermuda had more like cat-1 to occasional cat-2 conditions, things are settling down now as the large storm heads off northeast towards eastern Canada, where it seems likely to stall just before a landfall with a turn to a more easterly direction. Some remnants of Humberto will be involved in the mid-week weather over Ireland but by then just a ghost of the current system. Jerry meanwhile is almost at hurricane strength well to the east of the Windward Islands.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
Advertisement
20-09-2019, 07:14   #5372
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Friday, 20 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1.5 deg above normal, but that will be a blend of 3-5 above for today and Saturday, and near to slightly below normal after that. Normal values around 17 C daytime, 7 C at night.
-- Rainfall will be 75 to 125 per cent of normal values, with some rather heavy falls now expected from Sunday to mid-week.
-- Sunshine will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal, with a cloudier trend after today.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be the last fine day for a while, with sunshine, light winds in the east and central regions, and warm afternoon highs of 20 to 23 C. Stronger southerly winds in western counties and eventually also near the south coast will combine with increasing cloud to reduce some of the warmth in a few places.

TONIGHT will be overcast with outbreaks of light rain before morning in west Munster. Mild with lows 10 to 13 C. Moderate southerly winds will become more widespread.

SATURDAY will be overcast except for some brighter intervals in the east and north, and rain will gradually spread from west Munster into some other western and central counties, as well as in some portions of Leinster. Winds southerly 50 to 70 km/hr, highs near 21 C.

SUNDAY will feature outbreaks of rain, 5 to 15 mm likely, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY will be blustery with some rain at times, as frontal systems associated with extratropical Humberto arrive. About 10 mm of rain is likely, highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and showery with highs near 14 C.

The rest of next week looks rather unsettled with near normal temperatures returning. Further down the road, remnants of Hurricane Jerry could make a run at Ireland some time around the first of October.

At the moment, Humberto is a powerful extratropical storm south of Nova Scotia, about to turn east. It is no longer structurally a hurricane but has winds of cat-1 hurricane intensity in its circulation. By Tuesday, remnants of it will be northwest of Donegal but the maximum winds associated may only be 80 km/hr by then. Meanwhile, Jerry has become a small but rather intense hurricane moving rapidly northwest past the northern Leeward Islands, towards Bermuda eventually, and then it could recurve and head for Europe. Details on that won't be too reliable for a few more days yet, but in theory it could lead to a windy pattern for Ireland at some point late this month or early in October.

My local weather improved finally to partly cloudy and dry, with highs near 16 C.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
21-09-2019, 08:26   #5373
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Saturday, 21 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will be falling through the period and will average just a little above normal, which by end of week would be a maximum around 16 and a minimum of 5.
-- Rainfalls will average normal to 150% of normal amounts with rain becoming frequent starting tonight.
-- Sunshine will average 50% of normal values, with today (in east and north) possibly the only sunny day for a while.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out sunny and breezy in most areas, with a band of showery rain making its way through west Munster this morning, and spreading to other regions through the afternoon and evening, with clouds increasing rapidly ahead of the rain. Winds southeast 50 to 70 km/hr with some higher gusts near coasts and higher terrain in the south. Would exercise caution if venturing into hilly areas, weather may change rapidly. Highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will have outbreaks of showery rain and possibly a thunderstorm, 5 to 15 mm likely. Mild and breezy with lows near 12 C.

SUNDAY will have some heavy showers in the morning, tapering off to scattered showers later, with fresh southwest winds and highs only around 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY will be breezy to windy, southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, thanks to remnants of Humberto approaching northwest coast by late in the day. Showers will merge to intervals of rain, 10 to 20 mm likely. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C. Rather windy at times, especially near the south coast.

WEDNESDAY will also be cloudy with occasional rain and cool, lows of 6 C and highs near 13 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking rather cool and windy with showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... If there is any break between systems it might come around Saturday 28th but then another interval of unsettled weather may develop. Models have very different solutions for the evolution of current Tropical Storm Jerry (just downgraded from a hurricane in the past hour, north of Puerto Rico). The American GFS model shows the remnants of Jerry racing northeast by next weekend and passing through northern Ireland and Scotland, but the European model currently brings Jerry north to Newfoundland where it stalls out because of a large high in the central Atlantic, giving Ireland a prolonged cool northerly near the end of the month. So we'll have to wait and see which model has the handle on that, with a future storm just entering the tropical Atlantic now from west Africa a possible player in the central Atlantic weather picture by about the 2nd to 4th of October.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy once the morning mist and drizzle cleared away, and the high was around 14 C. We are getting a bit of autumn colour showing now and traces of snow on higher peaks above 2,000 meters locally.

In case you're wondering the autumn equinox isn't today or even tomorrow, but Monday 23rd at 0852 IST (0752 UTC).
M.T. Cranium is offline  
22-09-2019, 07:47   #5374
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Sunday, 22 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 September

-- Temperatures will remain near normal values, perhaps slightly above due mainly to cloudy nights staying mild.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal. That would imply about 30-40 mm in total.
-- Sunshine will be rather infrequent, some quite low totals are possible but 50% of normal might be achieved in a few spots.


FORECASTS

TODAY will bring heavy showers and the risk of an isolated thunderstorm, more widespread in Leinster and Ulster at first, but with a second wave developing later in the day moving into the southwest and spreading further into central counties. Some brighter intervals will be in the mix, especially in the western counties. Highs 16 to 19 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mm, heavier in Leinster.

TONIGHT will see some dry intervals and partly cloudy skies but some further rain will be found in the form of scattered showers. It will become rather windy after midnight, southwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows 10 to 12 C.

MONDAY will bring strong southwest winds of 50 to 80 km/hr and occasional rain, 5 to 15 mm likely. Highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, with showers or intervals of light rain, and the gusty winds will die out after becoming confined to the south coast. Lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will become quite breezy again (westerly 40 to 70 km/hr) with showers and cool temperatures in the range of 10 to 15 C.

THURSDAY will have some sunny breaks but also some passing showers, westerly breezes, highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are also looking partly cloudy to overcast with showers and highs near 16 C.

Around SUNDAY or perhaps MONDAY the remnants of Tropical Storm Jerry will probably be travelling across Ireland, leading to a slight increase in the southwest winds again, and more occasional rain. No big storm is expected though.

The week following will likely be rather unsettled as well. There are two more tropical systems about ready to be named, one is coming out of west Africa into the tropical Atlantic, and the other is east of Barbados now. These will be Karen and Lorenzo, as of mid-day the Caribbean system got the first name (Karen) so now it's likely that the African system will get the name Lorenzo. This one is expected to stay in the central Atlantic before recurving towards Europe in about a week to ten days from now. The other system (now Karen), will probably meander in the western Atlantic and could merge with disturbances over eastern North America about a week from now, the results following on behind the first storm. So that would make four tropical remnants in about two weeks, counting Humberto whose remnants are approaching Ireland tomorrow.

Once again, should emphasize that none of these is in any way Ophelia-like, just the typical Atlantic remnants that often track into the jet stream and join the regular parade of autumn lows. At the moment no charts are showing any really strong wind gusts from any of them, just a rather breezy regime in general for a couple of weeks ahead. It will perhaps seem like typical autumn weather.

My local weather was sunny for a change, and a bit warmer with a high near 18 C.

The autumn equinox will occur at 0852h Monday 23rd (or 0752 UTC). This will be the latest autumn equinox from now to the early 22nd century.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 22-09-2019 at 21:33. Reason: updated and corrected some information about future tropical activity
M.T. Cranium is offline  
23-09-2019, 07:39   #5375
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Monday, 23 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will be near normal values, although daily maxima could be 1 deg or more below their average, and overnight minima will be above their average values. (by mid-week, these average values are around 16 C for a high, and 6 C for the low).
-- Rainfalls will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal. About 40-50 mm can be expected in many areas.
-- Sunshine will be quite low and may have trouble reaching 50% of average (which is 4-5 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with some dry and even bright intervals in parts of the east and north but rain will slowly advance northeast from west Munster, with some heavy downpours at times, 5 to 15 mm likely. Moderate southwest winds will develop, reaching 50-70 km/hr. Highs will be around 15 or 16 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, and the gusty winds will become mostly confined to the south coast as a slack wind regime pushes into northern and then central regions. Lows 9 to 11 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy near the south coast, but winds will be somewhat variable elsewhere, with scattered showers or outbreaks of light rain, highs about 14 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be overcast with light rain but westerly winds will pick up again to 50-70 km/hr. Lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue unsettled with occasional rain, moderate west winds occasionally stronger southwest as fronts pass, and temperatures in the 12 to 15 C range much of the time.

The coming weekend could have some brief dry intervals but the unsettled weather is likely to return at some point due to remnants of tropical activity interacting with frontal systems further north, so expect a renewed bout of wind and rain, although nothing too dramatic is shown on the charts at the moment.

Tropical Storm Jerry continues to track towards Bermuda and will then head north or northeast. The models are still somewhat undecided on whether Jerry continues its journey towards the central Atlantic or just gets absorbed into other low pressure near Newfoundland. Either way, the results will track across the Atlantic and reach Ireland around Monday 30th. Karen is a weak tropical storm now south of Puerto Rico, tracking north. Some guidance wants to merge it with remnants of Jerry later in the month. It seems unlikely that Karen would strengthen enough to make it entirely out of the subtropics before it dissipates. Lorenzo, on the other hand, appears to be imminent as a hurricane in the central Atlantic from now designated Tropical Depression 13 south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This storm may become a major hurricane near the Azores and could track towards Iceland or even further east in the North Atlantic by about the end of the month. It would follow the remnants of Jerry, Karen and whatever lows get involved in that mess, and then in turn it would be followed by another strong low likely to follow it from eastern North America. So the next two weeks seem likely to be quite active with frequent bouts of wind and rain from all this energy being sucked into the jet stream over the central Atlantic. The odds are growing that there would be a significant wind event at some point, but nothing definitive is shown yet.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy but reasonably mild at 16 C. Light rain is approaching now. Reminder, the autumnal equinox occurs soon, may have already done so when you read this, at 0852h. So then it's officially autumn although it probably felt that way for several weeks already (here I would say the seasons changed around the 5th of September).
M.T. Cranium is offline  
Advertisement
24-09-2019, 07:21   #5376
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Tuesday, 24 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly above, as the nights will be quite mild even though daytime readings will be held down.
-- Rainfalls of 25% above normal will continue.
-- Sunshine will be brief and may only amount to 50% of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see some brighter intervals developing once the light rain near the east coast pushes further east, as the next batch of thicker cloud and rain is moving slowly into west Munster and may take most of the morning to overspread Munster and Connacht, then in the afternoon this will arrive in Leinster and Ulster. Highs 16 to 18 C. Winds not as strong as recent days, except at times near the south coast this morning.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered outbreaks of light rain, 10 mm in total from today on average, lows 8 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will become somewhat breezier again with passing showers, westerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr, highs 16 to 19 C.

THURSDAY will be breezy with occasional rain, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

The outlook is somewhat uncertain as Tropical Storm Jerry is now showing some signs of speeding up and its remnants could arrive by the weekend, bringing another interval of moderate southwest winds and rain. Karen meanwhile is proving to be a very weak storm although it may produce heavy rains in Puerto Rico; it likely will die out before reaching Bermuda. Lorenzo meanwhile is predicted to become a cat-3 hurricane southwest of the Azores and now shows some signs of heading straight towards western Europe next week. The charts currently weaken it just before it arrives, and the centre goes to the south of Ireland rather than continuing on across Ireland, so in that event, the weather would likely be overcast and drizzly mid-week. Some warmer air is also lurking for later next week after the near miss from Lorenzo's remnants. All of this is somewhat speculative and obviously subject to change, but all scenarios that we have seen in recent days have the common feature of active weather in a southwest flow and more cloud than clear skies, with frequent rain. What's missing at the moment is any signs of significantly stronger winds.

My local weather on Monday featured a lot of low cloud, with misty to foggy conditions at times, and some drizzle or light rain by afternoon, with highs around 14 C.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
25-09-2019, 07:35   #5377
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Wednesday, 25 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 25 September to 1 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, although mild at night, relatively cool daytime readings.
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with some brighter intervals in the east and north, as light drizzly rain moves into the southwest. This rain will tend to intensify during the mid-day as it moves across most of the country, eventually giving 10-15 mm amounts. Moderate south to southwest winds at times, highs 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will see the rain tapering off to showers or drizzle, and the moderate southwest winds will veer to a westerly direction. Lows will be around 9 to 11 C.

THURSDAY will be rather windy with intervals of rain, possibly some embedded thunderstorms, with westerly winds 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs will reach 14 to 17 C. About 10 mm rain is likely.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers in moderate westerly breezes, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY will probably be rather wet with low pressure either over or just to the south of Munster, winds may turn easterly for a time in some central and northern counties, and lows will be around 7 C with highs around 15 C.

SUNDAY could provide a brief break in the wet pattern, although forecast models diverge at this point into two different outcomes for next week, and one of these would suggest that Sunday will be the start of a trend to more settled weather. Either way, it seems likely to be a relatively dry day with highs near 15 C.

The model split is significant because it helps to determine the future track of powerful hurricane Lorenzo, expected to be near the Azores by early next week. Some guidance has this storm moving north in the central Atlantic while high pressure stays close to Ireland, preventing it from making a close approach. Other guidance does not show that and allows Lorenzo to take a run at western Europe, although the final outcome is then scattered on various models between landfalls in Ireland, Britain or France (around 2nd to 4th of October at this point).

So we'll need to keep a close eye on forecast models and their ideas for Lorenzo, as it could prove to be a significant player next week. Before that, remnants of Jerry and Karen seem likely to die out before they can reach the main portion of the jet stream, but some of their energy could transfer into lows approaching Ireland around the weekend and (if the blocking high is weak) next week, in advance of Lorenzo's extratropical stage.

My local weather was pleasant with some sunshine at times, and highs near 18 C. We have a fair amount of autumn colour showing now, not quite at its peak yet. Will try for a picture when the maples have reached their brightest phase.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
25-09-2019, 07:35   #5378
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Wednesday, 25 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 25 September to 1 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, although mild at night, relatively cool daytime readings.
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with some brighter intervals in the east and north, as light drizzly rain moves into the southwest. This rain will tend to intensify during the mid-day as it moves across most of the country, eventually giving 10-15 mm amounts. Moderate south to southwest winds at times, highs 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will see the rain tapering off to showers or drizzle, and the moderate southwest winds will veer to a westerly direction. Lows will be around 9 to 11 C.

THURSDAY will be rather windy with intervals of rain, possibly some embedded thunderstorms, with westerly winds 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs will reach 14 to 17 C. About 10 mm rain is likely.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers in moderate westerly breezes, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY will probably be rather wet with low pressure either over or just to the south of Munster, winds may turn easterly for a time in some central and northern counties, and lows will be around 7 C with highs around 15 C.

SUNDAY could provide a brief break in the wet pattern, although forecast models diverge at this point into two different outcomes for next week, and one of these would suggest that Sunday will be the start of a trend to more settled weather. Either way, it seems likely to be a relatively dry day with highs near 15 C.

The model split is significant because it helps to determine the future track of powerful hurricane Lorenzo, expected to be near the Azores by early next week. Some guidance has this storm moving north in the central Atlantic while high pressure stays close to Ireland, preventing it from making a close approach. Other guidance does not show that and allows Lorenzo to take a run at western Europe, although the final outcome is then scattered on various models between landfalls in Ireland, Britain or France (around 2nd to 4th of October at this point).

So we'll need to keep a close eye on forecast models and their ideas for Lorenzo, as it could prove to be a significant player next week. Before that, remnants of Jerry and Karen seem likely to die out before they can reach the main portion of the jet stream, but some of their energy could transfer into lows approaching Ireland around the weekend and (if the blocking high is weak) next week, in advance of Lorenzo's extratropical stage.

My local weather was pleasant with some sunshine at times, and highs near 18 C. We have a fair amount of autumn colour showing now, not quite at its peak yet. Will try for a picture when the maples have reached their brightest phase.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
26-09-2019, 07:30   #5379
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Thursday, 26 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 26 Sept to 2 Oct 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, although rather cool daytime highs and mild nights will continue.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.
-- Sunshine will struggle to reach even 50 per cent of average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers and longer intervals of rain, with some thunderstorms embedded by mid-day and afternoon. Moderate south to southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with further rain likely, bringing totals to 15-20 mm in some places. Lows 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy and a bit cooler with passing showers, highs 14 to 17 C.

SATURDAY will likely be a rather wet day with winds turning easterly for a time in some central and northern counties, as low pressure passes through parts of Munster and south Leinster. Some locally heavy rainfalls may develop. Rather cool, lows near 10 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

SUNDAY will start out wet and windy with a gradual clearing trend as low pressure pulls away from the southeast, giving some chance of sunny intervals in the west by afternoon. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C. Winds north backing to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

MONDAY is currently looking wet again with yet another Atlantic depression approaching Ireland and crossing the southern counties during the day. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY may see a few breaks and less rainfall, with highs near 15 C.

Later next week, higher pressure may build up for a day or two, and if so that may protect Ireland from any threat of remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo making an impact (most likely to be west of Ireland around Thursday 3rd October). This hurricane is slowly gathering strength well to the south of the Azores where it could hit as a hurricane of diminishing intensity (after reaching major hurricane status in the meanwhile). Too early to say with much confidence where Lorenzo's remnants will actually head although most models seem to favour a track several hundred miles west of Ireland towards the Icelandic region with a loop around the northern Atlantic. Associated fronts and disturbances could then reach Ireland later even if Lorenzo never does.

My local weather was sunny in the morning but cloudy by afternoon, as a strong front approaches. It was about 18 C for our high on Wednesday. We're expecting some rain, then a colder turn to the weather bringing snow down to mountain pass elevations by Friday. Rather early for this, might even see some mixing at my elevation of 1050 m. A heavy snowfall is expected in some higher terrain and over on the east slopes of the Rockies (by Friday) around Calgary.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
Advertisement
27-09-2019, 07:43   #5380
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Friday, 27 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 27 Sept to 3 Oct 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal, but some daytime readings will be 2 to 3 deg below average while nights will be that much milder.
-- Rainfall could average as much as 50% above normal, Saturday and Monday will both be quite wet.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, but at least the trend will be improving by the middle of next week.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with some heavy bursts of rain, possibly with some thunder, in parts of central Leinster and Munster. The second batch will move into south Leinster around late morning. Some spot flooding is possible as 15 to 25 mm of rain could fall in a short period of time in some places. There may be a slight clearing trend by afternoon from west to east although the showers will not entirely die off. Rather cool and breezy too, with highs 14 to 16 C. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT will see isolated showers and otherwise partly cloudy skies with lows around 6 C.

SATURDAY could start off bright and dry in some parts of the east and north, with increasing cloud later from the southwest. Rain will follow and turn heavy at times later in the day. About 15 to 25 mm rain is expected. Quite chilly especially to north of the track of low pressure which is expected to run from about Clare to Dublin. Highs north of that only 12 to 14 C. Southern counties could reach 17 C.

SUNDAY will see the rain tapering off to drizzle in the morning, with a gradual clearing trend by mid-day, and afternoon sunny intervals especially in Connacht and west Munster. Winds rather strong at times as the low pulls away from the east coast, blowing from a northerly direction then later on backing to northwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY will have a chilly start as skies will remain clear until after midnight when cloud will rapidly increase. Rain will move in and persist all day in most places. North of the track of low pressure, east winds and very cool temperatures near 10 or 11 C while to the south, slightly milder at 15 C. Some central and inland southern counties will have 20-25 mm of rain.

TUESDAY will see gradual clearing from this rain and cloud, but it won't turn sunny until afternoon in some western counties only. Winds will be rather brisk from the northeast backing to northwest later, before calming down Tuesday night. Lows and daytime highs in a narrow range of about 10 to 12 C. Quite chilly by evening, 4 to 6 C.

WEDNESDAY will be a dry day with generally light winds at first, becoming moderate southerly later as cloud rapidly increases, at least over western counties. Lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... The remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo may be somewhere just west of Irish marine areas of the near Atlantic by Wednesday night or Thursday, and a front may reach Ireland on Thursday with intervals of rain, even if the core of Lorenzo moves towards Iceland after moving through the Azores. While Lorenzo is expected to travel west for some time after moving north, another deep low forming east of the American coast will be swung around towards Ireland and could produce strong winds around Friday.

My local weather on Thursday was foggy with light rain for a while this morning, then it cleared up with a brisk, cold northerly wind in the afternoon. The snow line has come down to around 1200 metres on some local mountains, and it will fall further today, with a heavy snow warning in place for some mountain passes and much of south-central Alberta as well.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
28-09-2019, 08:01   #5381
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Saturday, 28 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 28 Sept to 4 Oct 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will be 25 to 75 per cent above normal, higher values likely in parts of the south.
-- Sunshine will be about 75 per cent of normal, closer to 3 hours a day than the normal 4 or so.
-- Strong winds may be a factor at times especially on Thursday 3rd.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start off bright and dry in some parts of the east and north, with increasing cloud later from the southwest. Rain will follow and turn heavy at times later in the day. Highs generally around 15 C, but temperatures will begin to diverge late in the day as low pressure approaches, to 12 C in the north and 17 C near the south coast.

TONIGHT will be wet and breezy, possibly a few strong gusts near the south coast when low pressure tracks into Munster. About 15 to 25 mm rain is expected. Temperatures steady 10 to 12 C for most, 14 to 17 C near the south coast for part of the night. A few strong south to southwest gusts may develop near Waterford and Wexford.

SUNDAY will see the rain tapering off to drizzle in the morning, with a gradual clearing trend by mid-day, and afternoon sunny intervals especially in Connacht and west Munster. Winds rather strong at times as the low pulls away from the east coast, blowing from a northerly direction then later on backing to northwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY will have a chilly start as skies will remain clear until after midnight when cloud will rapidly increase. Rain will move in and persist all day in most places. North of the track of low pressure, east winds and very cool temperatures near 10 or 11 C while to the south, slightly milder at 15 C. Some central and inland southern counties will have 20-25 mm of rain.

TUESDAY will see a secondary outbreak of light rain during the morning, then gradual clearing from the persistent rain and cloud, but it won't turn sunny until afternoon, and in some western counties only. Winds will be rather brisk from the northeast backing to northwest later, before calming down Tuesday night. Lows and daytime highs in a narrow range of about 10 to 12 C. Quite chilly by evening, 4 to 6 C.

WEDNESDAY will be a dry day with generally light winds at first, becoming moderate southerly later as cloud rapidly increases, at least over western counties. Lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY -- Storm Lorenzo watch is now in the forecast as models changed the track overnight, bringing the remnant extratropical low straight towards Ireland. Too early to give any definite forecast but charts this morning on some of the most reliable models indicate potential for 120-140 km/hr gusts especially near the west coast but at least 100-120 km/hr in many areas. This could change again closer to the time. For example, one model adjusted its track so far that Lorenzo now misses Ireland to the south instead of the northwest. Very much a wait and see situation now but the arrival would be early to mid-day Thursday 3rd.

FURTHER OUTLOOK -- It appears likely to remain unsettled with more Atlantic disturbances lining up to follow Lorenzo into western Europe during early October.

My local weather has been unseasonably cold on Friday, a sleety rain was falling by late afternoon and evening, snow no doubt over just slightly higher terrain, and temperatures were never much better than 5 C during the day. A heavy snowfall warning is out for mountain passes and parts of south-central Alberta tonight.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
29-09-2019, 08:11   #5382
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Sunday, 29 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 29 Sept to 5 Oct 2019

-- Temperatures will average between normal and 1.0 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal (possibly more if Lorenzo makes a direct impact)
-- Sunshine will average about 75% of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out cloudy with some leftover drizzle and light rain. There will be some gradual clearing in western counties later. Winds northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, and rather chilly, highs only 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will be clear at times in the north and east, and cold, with lows 1 to 4 C, although temperatures may rise after midnight there. The south and west will be overcast with rain developing, and rising temperatures towards dawn after lows near 7 C.

MONDAY will produce some heavy rain at times, with low cloud ceilings and fog across many areas. About 20 to 30 mm of rain is possible. Winds increasing to southeast 40 to 60 km/hr, backing around to northeast in most places as low pressure travels through the south coastal regions. Temperatures steady 12 to 14 C.

TUESDAY will start out with occasional light rain then a gradual clearing trend will develop. It will remain rather cool, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C. Winds moderate northerly to northwesterly.

WEDNESDAY will most likely be dry as high pressure crests over the region, with some sunshine at times, then increasing cloud. Lows will be near the frost zone inland, and highs 12 to 16 C.

The outlook remains very uncertain as Lorenzo decides which way to go after a rampage through the Azores likely on Tuesday into early Wednesday. The models have been diverging in different directions each time but the trend this morning is back towards the older idea of a miss to the west, however, the official track which blends all solutions is straight towards western Ireland. So the Lorenzo watch remains in effect with a probability of a direct impact perhaps one in three or one in four at this point. What seems more certain is that the weather will become unsettled again if not due to Lorenzo's direct impacts, then due to all the frontal systems likely to be heading towards Ireland in the wake of the storm's passage towards Iceland.

My local weather was a real shocker on Saturday as snow fell throughout the day and accumulated to about 7 cms on some surfaces (while melting on the roads), and it appeared to be 10-15 cms on nearby hills, while changing to rain at elevations a bit lower than our local area. The highest temperature we had all day was probably 2 or 3 C, which I would have to think is an extreme value for this location in September. It is still overcast with a drizzly wet snow falling now, expecting a slow clearing trend and continued very cold to Monday here.

Astronomy note: The new moon has just occurred as of 1927h IST Saturday (1827h UTC).
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(74) thanks from:
123balltv, 17-pdr, 200motels, An Ri rua, Artane2002, Ben Done, Boards.ie, Booms, cdev, Ceirseach, CloughCasey1, coillsaille, Cork Lass, Cornerstonelad, cowana, DanielL18, Darwin, DBB, Deank, Dr Turk Turkelton, Duvet Day, Figerty, florryfox, Forever21, fricatus, fryup, Gerard93, Gremlinertia, gumgum1, Hill Bill, ideb, ingalway, islanderre, jirafa, jousting with chairs, Judge, J_A_F_A, king size mars bar, Knine, lapua20grain, leahyl, little bess, longgonesilver, m17, Meathcat, Mercky, mountainy man, Naggdefy, New Home, NMB, Oops69, Pappacharlie, PJD, RazorT, RebelButtMunch, Reckless Abandonment, RoisinD, roshje, Rulmeq, smokie72, snowgal, sryanbruen, Tacitus Kilgore, Tazio, The high horse brigade, tiegan, Tom Mann Centuria, turbostan, unknownlegend, Wanderer78, Water John, webpal, Wine Goddess, Yoghurt87
30-09-2019, 08:10   #5383
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Update -- a bit late getting to the full forecast, for those wanting an overview, will be going with the same general forecast as from this point in yesterday's outlook and the Lorenzo situation is not determined yet but guidance is favouring a near miss to the west of Ireland, however will be indicating the watch continues and about a 1 in 4 chance of a more direct impact than that. Full forecast will appear within 10 mins I hope.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
30-09-2019, 08:24   #5384
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Monday, 30 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 30 Sept to 6 Oct 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, increasing through the period.
-- Rainfall will average near normal if Lorenzo misses Ireland and 25 to 50 per cent above normal with a more direct impact.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values, improving by mid-week.

FORECASTS

TODAY ... After a dry start to the day in eastern and northern counties, cloud will rapidly increase, and lead to heavy rain at times -- the rain already falling in west Munster -- with low cloud ceilings and fog developing by afternoon across many areas. About 20 to 30 mm of rain is possible. Winds increasing to southeast 40 to 60 km/hr, backing around to northeast in most places as low pressure travels through the south coastal regions. Once the morning chill is overcome, it will still be rather cool for late September with temperatures steady 12 to 14 C except possibly rising to near 16 C along the south coast and in west Munster with some late afternoon clearing there.

TONIGHT ... The heavier rain will continue in Leinster and Ulster for a time, with variable cloud in Munster and Connacht, further outbreaks of light rain likely, and temperatures steady around 10 C.

TUESDAY will start out with occasional light rain then a gradual clearing trend will develop. It will remain rather cool, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C. Winds moderate northerly to northwesterly 40 to 60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and dry as high pressure crests over the region, with some sunshine at times, then increasing cloud by afternoon. Lows will be in the range of 1 to 6 C with some light ground frost possible in valleys inland, and highs 12 to 16 C.

THURSDAY is most likely to be a mild, cloudy day, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C, with some rain skirting the west coast, in moderate southerly breezes. This will verify if Lorenzo's remnant low stays west of about 18 deg longitude. If it approaches Ireland closer than that, perhaps a one in four chance now, then more significant rain and wind impacts could be felt. I believe we should begin to see consensus in the guidance by tomorrow's forecast update and until Lorenzo has reached the Azores it may not be entirely certain how close to Ireland it might come. The official forecast from the NHC indicates uncertainty on whether Lorenzo fully merges with a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies coming out of eastern Canada now, or remains a separate entity until Thursday or Friday, in which case it could track closer to Ireland.

The OUTLOOK beyond Thursday whether Lorenzo has hit Ireland or not is for further disturbances to pass with wind and rain on a fairly frequent basis, in a mild southwesterly flow pattern. Highs could be in the 17 to 19 C range as air of subtropical origin may be mixing in with relatively mild air masses from the western Atlantic.

My local weather remained almost wintry on Sunday with a constant fall of drizzly wet snow, keeping ground cover stable as slow melting was cancelled out by the new snow falling. We did a short driving tour to discover that no snow was lying as close as 1 km southeast of the town at 980 meters, but 15 to 20 cms had brought down some tree limbs on the higher northwest side of the town. The highest temperature all day was around 3 C.

Will be assessing Lorenzo's track this afternoon and may have an update between now and the usual morning forecast time tomorrow.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(87) thanks from:
17-pdr, 200motels, amber2, Artane2002, Ben Done, BigMoose, Bigus, blindsider, Boards.ie, Bsal, cdev, Clamball, coillsaille, Cork Lass, Cul a cnoic, Daffodil.d, Darwin, david65, DBB, Deank, derekeire, dolanbaker, Drumpot, Duvet Day, EAFC_rdfl, florryfox, Forever21, frash, fricatus, Gerard93, glwaymiko, goat2, GoneHome, Gremlinertia, gugsy, Hoagy, ideb, islanderre, jambofc, jirafa, jousting with chairs, jspuds, J_A_F_A, Kamili, king size mars bar, Knine, lapua20grain, little bess, m17, Meathcat, Mercky, Mooooo, mountainy man, Naggdefy, nc6000, New Home, NMB, Nortcider, now online, PJD, RebelButtMunch, RedPeppers, riggerman, RoisinD, Rooy, roshje, Rulmeq, SirChenjin, smokie72, Squeaksoutloud, sryanbruen, Tacitus Kilgore, Tazio, TeaCup2, The Assistinator, theMountain, tom_k, turbostan, ullickmagee, unknownlegend, Wanderer78, Water John, Wine Goddess, witzky, yellowlabrador, YFlyer, Yoghurt87
01-10-2019, 08:00   #5385
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,310
Tuesday, 1st of October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



Trends for the week of 1 to 7 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, with an increasing trend. Normal values at this time of year are around 16 C for the daily maximum, and 6 for the daily minimum.
-- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal values, 25 to 30 mm in total.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values, about 3 hours a day at this time of year.


FORECASTS

TODAY will have some patchy light rain mostly over eastern counties, with a slow clearing trend in the west making limited progress into central counties by afternoon. It will be quite cool with northeast winds backing around to northwest later, 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will bring some clearing in eastern and northern counties, to partly cloudy skies in the south and west. It will become frosty in a few inland valleys. Lows 1 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will see a mixture of cloud and sunshine, with winds generally light and variable becoming southeast by afternoon. Highs will be in the range of 12 to 16 C.

THURSDAY there will be some impacts from nearby remnants of Lorenzo tracking close to Donegal Bay and the north Ulster coast. As the storm is expected to weaken rather steadily, these impacts are more likely to be moderate (yellow alert status) than severe (orange or red alert) but that possibility still needs to be monitored. The most likely outcome would be south to southwest winds of 60 to 100 km/hr in many parts of the country, and 80 to 120 km/hr near exposed western and later northern coasts. A more severe outcome would add 20-30 to those speeds (but chances are considered low). Some rain is likely at times with heavier falls in the north. Temperatures will be in the 17-19 C range as warmer air is drawn up from the southwest. The most significant impact may be elevated sea states, large swells and breaking waves are likely due to the long duration southwest to northeast track of Lorenzo, and "rogue waves" may develop causing a safety concern for those drawn to the coast for a view of the waves.

FRIDAY will continue breezy and showers will end, leaving partly cloudy skies, and temperatures near 15 C.

The OUTLOOK calls for rain and mild southerly winds on Saturday followed by colder weather in a westerly flow for much of the following week, highs dropping back to the 10-13 C range.

My local weather remained cold on Monday, but with some bright blue skies alternating with low scudding cloud, there was no further snow and most of what was lying close to the town has melted away, with a significant cover still visible on nearby hills. Reports came in that 50 cms had fallen on nearby mountain passes and 65 cms was reported at Lethbridge, Alberta, with over a meter of snow in Waterton Lakes National Park on the Alberta-Montana border. Those heavier amounts were partly due to orographic uplift effects. Except on mountain summits most of this snow will gradually melt away in the coming week although temperatures are likely to remain rather chilly here. Meanwhile it has been unseasonably warm in eastern North America and a strong low has formed along the air mass boundary in the northwest Great Lakes region.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(89) thanks from:
123balltv, 17-pdr, 200motels, 8mv, aisling86, amber2, Ben Done, BigMoose, blindsider, Boards.ie, Bogwoppit, Booms, Calahonda52, Cavanjack, cdev, Ceist_Beag, coillsaille, Coopaloop, Cork Lass, cowana, dahat, Darwin, DBB, Deank, detones, dinorebel, Drumpot, Duvet Day, EAD, EAFC_rdfl, florryfox, Forever21, fricatus, Frostybrew, FrStone, Gerard93, Glebee, glwaymiko, goat2, Gremlinertia, ingalway, IrishHomer, islanderre, jambofc, jirafa, Joe Public, jousting with chairs, jspuds, J_A_F_A, Keisha07, Knine, lapua20grain, little bess, Loughc, Martin_D, Meathcat, meercat, Mercky, Metroid diorteM, mountainy man, nc6000, New Home, NMB, now online, OldRio, Rackstar, realdanbreen, RebelButtMunch, Reckless Abandonment, RedPeppers, riggerman, RoisinD, Rooy, roshje, Rulmeq, SirChenjin, smokie72, sryanbruen, Tacitus Kilgore, Tazio, terenc, thecomedian, tom_k, unknownlegend, Wanderer78, Water John, webpal, Wine Goddess, witzky
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet