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03-08-2009, 06:23   #211
 
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Cranium, does a favour.

At the bottom of your posts do a quick local forecast of whats happening in your part of Canada.
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03-08-2009, 18:49   #212
M.T. Cranium
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UPDATE _ Monday, 3 August, 2009 _ 1845h
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As expected, some rather heavy rain is developing along the occluded front heading northeast into Ireland at this time. The track of the heaviest rainfall seems likely to be something like Cork to Laois towards Dublin, whether it reaches Dublin or begins to wane after 2300h remains to be seen. Also some thunderstorms could develop both along this track and to the southeast in the warm sector of the system. Waterford and Wexford, then also Carlow and Wicklow may be in the path of some heavy thundery downpours giving 10-30 mms of rain this evening. As I may not be close to the internet now to 10 p.m., I would certainly appreciate any updates from boards.ie weather folk should anything really heavy develop. I don't think the dynamics would favour stronger wind gusts than the system is already generating (30-35 mph seems about the upper limit) but there could be some local hail and intense lightning if the cells develop further. Clearing will follow eventually, but there are secondary areas of showers that could also become thundery, following on behind this main band, and already ashore in south Kerry. These could give a second round of heavier rain about an hour or two after the main band passes any given location.

There is also some risk of heavier rain developing towards the northwest around 9-10 p.m., meanwhile Ulster would be waiting until generally after midnight for much rainfall, and this may become heavy after midnight there.

As to my own weather here, I think I'll stick to the daily report at the evening update, and just give the occasional glimpse ahead when something unusual is about to happen here. We're stuck in the hot, dry pattern of the recent week to ten days, and it's heading for about 28-30 C later on (it being 1050 local time here now). Full sunshine, no haze or high cloud, lower humidity. Expecting a gradual cooling trend due mainly to building southward of a new high to replace the old one, so possibly the odd brief thunderstorm around tomorrow, and a long spell of dry weather with more seasonable temperatures to follow, with the usual slow warming trend again.

There have been some severe storms in Alberta recently, and a number of forest fires are forcing evacuations across inland parts of B.C.
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03-08-2009, 19:53   #213
 
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Light rain started here about 4 or so but it's been moderate to heavy in the last hour.
Looks like the really heavy stuff is over mid wexford-maybe the Enniscorthy area southwards...though you'd get quite a drenching here 20 miles north of there.

Unfortunately my weatherstation is out of action for the moment so I have no rain stats for here :/

The rain band seems to have narrowed significantly.
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04-08-2009, 05:33   #214
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Tuesday, 4 August, 2009
________________________

TODAY will be warm and partly cloudy at first with some sunny intervals, followed by scattered showers and possibly one or two thundershowers, most likely in west-central districts. Winds will be quite breezy from the SSW at about 20-35 mph, although off the west coast around 30-50 mph at times. Highs will reach about 21 or 22 C.

TONIGHT will remain warm, partly cloudy to clear at times, with just widely scattered light showers at worst; lows will be about 14 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will be similar to today with some sunshine, scattered showers here and there, and warm highs near 21 or 22 C. SW'ly breezes will tend to be a bit less strong over most of the country.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times, with just a slight risk of showers mainly in the northwest. It will turn a little cooler but not too much, with highs closer to 19 C, and lows around 11 C.

THE WEEKEND is looking fairly good too, at this point, with a ridge of high pressure drifting through Ireland likely to bring dry and partly cloudy to sunny conditions, highs around 20 C.

NEXT WEEK is starting to look warmer now, as the jet stream begins to lift further north and away from Ireland for a while (let's hope a long while).
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04-08-2009, 05:37   #215
darkman2
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Thanks MT. I am keeping track of the jet profile and I am convinced a window is opening for the weekend and next week - although I am disappointed that it won't occur some days earlier as I thought it might. Still, Summer is on the way....belatedly....but August means storms if the weather I see occurs and that is a positive for weather nuts.
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04-08-2009, 11:54   #216
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Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
Thanks MT. I am keeping track of the jet profile and I am convinced a window is opening for the weekend and next week - although I am disappointed that it won't occur some days earlier as I thought it might. Still, Summer is on the way....belatedly....but August means storms if the weather I see occurs and that is a positive for weather nuts.
Darkman. How do you keep track of the position of the jet stream?
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04-08-2009, 17:35   #217
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Darkman. How do you keep track of the position of the jet stream?
There are several sites where you can observe the forecast track of the Jet Stream

The one most commonly used here is on the Wetterzentrale website

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...=gfsh500;sess=

Here is another one

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse...&code=0&mode=5

The profile of the jet stream is very important for our weather. Preferably we don't want to see it high tailing it across the Atlantic at us like a big vindictive finger. We want to see it amplified with troughs and waves so a block (or high pressure) can build and divert depressions away from us. In Summer this normally means warm and settled weather. Paradoxically in Winter it tends to give us colder weather. However most of the year, unfortunately for us, the Jet Stream just kinda gets stuck in it's default pattern racing around a small ribbon of the Northern Hemisphere aimed right at us. As observed for the past four weeks this tends to bring us the tiresome train of depressions off the Atlantic with little end in sight.


The more disjointed and amplified the stream becomes the better. It also splits sometimes aswell with a second ribbon going much further South, sometimes around the Med, whilst the original Northern flow can end up to the North of Greenland....In Winter this means Northerlies and cold weather.

As for prospects for the next week or two - we just need the flow to buckle temporarily.

MT what are your thoughts as to the prospects?
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04-08-2009, 23:53   #218
enfant terrible
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Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
There are several sites where you can observe the forecast track of the Jet Stream

The one most commonly used here is on the Wetterzentrale website

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...=gfsh500;sess=

Here is another one

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse...&code=0&mode=5

The profile of the jet stream is very important for our weather. Preferably we don't want to see it high tailing it across the Atlantic at us like a big vindictive finger. We want to see it amplified with troughs and waves so a block (or high pressure) can build and divert depressions away from us. In Summer this normally means warm and settled weather. Paradoxically in Winter it tends to give us colder weather. However most of the year, unfortunately for us, the Jet Stream just kinda gets stuck in it's default pattern racing around a small ribbon of the Northern Hemisphere aimed right at us. As observed for the past four weeks this tends to bring us the tiresome train of depressions off the Atlantic with little end in sight.


The more disjointed and amplified the stream becomes the better. It also splits sometimes aswell with a second ribbon going much further South, sometimes around the Med, whilst the original Northern flow can end up to the North of Greenland....In Winter this means Northerlies and cold weather.

As for prospects for the next week or two - we just need the flow to buckle temporarily.

MT what are your thoughts as to the prospects?
Is anyone predicting where the jet stream will be next summer.
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05-08-2009, 05:48   #219
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Wednesday, 5 August, 2009
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TODAY will feature some longer sunny intervals and rather warm temperatures rising to about 21 or 22 C in eastern counties, compared to about 18 C in the west where cloud may be more prevalent. Some showers are likely to brush by western Mayo and others could develop here and there in west-central counties later on, but many will experience a fairly dry day and winds will ease off somewhat after a windy start in Galway and Mayo.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows near 13 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with more cloud in the northwest, and a slight chance of a shower there. Highs will reach about 18 or 19 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY is now looking quite settled and in most places at least partly sunny, in fact some eastern and southern counties could see a lot of sunshine, and highs will slowly edge up from about 19 to about 22 C, with rather cool nights reaching 8-10 C before sunrise each morning. Winds will be generally rather light, adding to the warmer feel.

NEXT WEEK is starting to look quite warm to borderline hot with highs possibly reaching the mid 20s in eastern counties especially; the light SSW flow will cool south and west coast locations a little, but it should be quite summery for several days.

As to the rising jet stream, this seems to be a process already underway now and lifting the remnants of the nearby ocean storm away from the west coast towards Iceland, which is cancelling out the effects of cooler air rotating around the system and keeping the weather more or less "steady as she goes" for a few days. Next year, well I will not even hazard a guess there.
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05-08-2009, 18:00   #220
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Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
Thanks MT. I am keeping track of the jet profile and I am convinced a window is opening for the weekend and next week - although I am disappointed that it won't occur some days earlier as I thought it might. Still, Summer is on the way....belatedly....but August means storms if the weather I see occurs and that is a positive for weather nuts.
Great, at least I know my radio aerial wont blow down this weekend
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05-08-2009, 21:19   #221
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UPDATE _ Wednesday, 9:30 p.m.
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Things continue to look very nice for the foreseeable future, especially through the weekend and next week ... no big changes in the forecast then.

Around where I live, the heat wave has broken down finally, we had quite a bit of cloud all morning from a marine layer on westerly winds, now that is breaking to reveal some afternoon sunshine, but it is a comfortable 21 C.
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05-08-2009, 21:32   #222
darkman2
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Looks promising indeed






ECM diverges from this setup considerably though. So far from nailed but a definate improvement on recent weeks.

Id say your glad to have those cooler temperatures there MT.

Last edited by darkman2; 05-08-2009 at 21:48.
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06-08-2009, 05:40   #223
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Thursday, 6 August, 2009
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TODAY will see cloud brushing the west coast and bringing some light showers at times there, but longer sunny intervals are likely in most other parts of Ireland. The cloud and showers could try to edge a bit further east at times into central Ireland and parts of Ulster. Highs today will be generally near 17 C in the west and 20 C in the east.

TONIGHT will continue about the same, with more cloud in the west and north than other parts of Ireland, and lows reflecting this, only dropping to about 12 or 13 C in the cloudy west and north, but 8-10 C under clear skies further south and east.

FRIDAY will probably see even more widespread sunshine but there is a slight chance of longer cloudy intervals and brief showers across the far northwest, mainly Donegal and parts of Mayo. Highs will be about the same as today, mostly near 20 C.

SATURDAY should continue reasonably warm and dry with partly cloudy to sunny skies, just a slight chance of a shower in the west and north, and lows near 9 C followed by highs near 21 C.

SUNDAY could be even a little warmer, and still sunny for most, with highs of about 22 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY look fine, with various guidance disagreeing only as to how warm it might get, the average of all predictions is about 22-24 C with some warmer possibilities showing 24-27 C in eastern counties. Whatever verifies it is likely that the west coast will be cooler due to an onshore seabreeze, and usually the south coast picks up a southerly seabreeze in these patterns as well, so locally it could be around 18 C near the sea, trending to 21 C well inland.

Yes, I am enjoying the more comfortable temperatures, saves me from having to go that far, which I was considering by day seven of the 30 plus heat wave.
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06-08-2009, 11:22   #224
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Thursday, 6 August, 2009
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TODAY will see cloud brushing the west coast and bringing some light showers at times there, but longer sunny intervals are likely in most other parts of Ireland. The cloud and showers could try to edge a bit further east at times into central Ireland and parts of Ulster. Highs today will be generally near 17 C in the west and 20 C in the east.
Theres actually an attempt at some convergence convection here inland in the East from the Wicklow mountains south to Mt Leinster.
I can see building cb's-so the probability of homegrown showers or a thunderstorm in the south east is there also today.
Some of the other showers elsewhere in the country or a thunderstorm or two might mirror exactly what they did yesterday.
I'm not expecting many but it's currently looking like there will be some.
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06-08-2009, 12:24   #225
 
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Those cb's have just given a sharp shower here on the East Wicklow coast.
This has further enhanced my thinking that potentialy thundery convection is going to continue with more pep in the afternoon.
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