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Pence comment on Brexit

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Comments

  • #32
    fly_agaric
    Registered Users Posts: 4,785 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    cryptocurrency wrote: »
    Trump and the US have been banging their head against a brick wall trying to get a EU trade deal and the EU have played every trick in the book to frustrate it to their way.

    Trump has not really started the trade war with the EU yet and when he does it will hurt.

    Last efforts at a deal mostly occurred during Obama's term rather than Trump's. "Every trick in the book" is an odd way of describing the public agitation against any deal/protests (esp. in France and Germany I think) that put the willies up politicians when leaks of ideas being discussed in the negotiations started to come out.

    I think Trump ended the TTIP negotiations (probably part of trying to reverse and undo everything Obama worked on rather than opposition to the idea). Trying to negotiate anything with him in power in the US is impossible.
    He just issues demands and threats through his minions and over twitter in person whenever he feels like it. It'll be interesting to see how the UK gets on with that if they do go through with the "no deal" exit and try to get a quick new US trade agreement.

    For an Irish person posting on an Irish website you seem to be looking forward with glee to a Trump "trade war" with the EU from which Ireland will not emerge unscathed.
    rogue-entity wrote:
    Not entirely unlike China's current position.

    Yes (although China is more protectionist than the US).
    It's very strange, but my impression as a non expert on any of this is that China is probably less "anti-EU" than the current US administration!
    IMO they support idea of an "EU" that they can deal with one-on-one as a collective (as opposed to the EU fragmenting) but of course they will try and influence or bully member countries if necessary to affect the EU decision making in ways that are advantageous for them.


  • #33
    jmayo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,078 ✭✭✭✭jmayo


    mrbrianj wrote: »
    Pence comes over for the photo op to secure his Irish American vote. Hopefully his Irish American vote will punish him for giving us the two fingers.

    Really annoying that he paints the picture its us not negotiating in good faith, when in fact the opposite is clear as day!

    I don't know why anyone expects anything from that individual.
    He is as two faced at the guy he is backing, Johnson.

    Some people think that because of his big Irish background that he is going to be somewhat well disposed to us, but he is just like that other soup taker Regan who was up the hole of the Brits.
    And Pence is a fan of Regan.

    Pence came from an Irish American catholic democrat background and until college he was himself.
    Then he went far right becoming an evangelical, born-again Christian and Republican.
    The worst kind of American.


  • #34
    Melanchthon
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭Melanchthon


    fly_agaric wrote: »
    Yes (although China is more protectionist than the US).
    It's very strange, but my impression as a non expert on any of this is that China is probably less "anti-EU" than the current US administration!
    IMO they support idea of an "EU" that they can deal with one-on-one as a collective (as opposed to the EU fragmenting) but of course they will try and influence or bully member countries if necessary to affect the EU decision making in ways that are advantageous for them.

    Makes sense, EU fits into the belt and road initiative, they know the EU is weak on the idea of solidarity in terms of geopolitics stuff if its in the interests of powerful members see Nordstream II, they know the idea of an EU being a military threat and attacking in a manner that impinges Chinese actions in their areas of interests isn't going to happen look at the Pew polling of, 58% of German citizens wouldn't support war if Russia attacked an allied state, that would be an attack on a neighboring country, what do you think the appetite would be for defending Taiwan or other countries if China decided to flex its muscles this is aside from excepting France and the UK the EU is militarily a joke.


  • #35
    fly_agaric
    Registered Users Posts: 4,785 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    ^^They (China) are unthreatened by the EU (as currently constituted) and it is very handy for them to deal with for trade issues etc instead of navigating 27/28 separate countries.

    That might change if China's own interests within Europe expand (belt & road) and are being obstructed by the EU as they see it, or if the EU starts to become more federal as part of a new drive for it by the founder members. The second would see the EU develop a more cohesive foreign policy after Brexit + make it more inclined to take positions or actions that annoy China. Both possibilities seem likely to me.

    The US administration however sees the EU as a straight up "threat" and are actively working to undermine and fragment it.

    edit: on the big geopolitical stuff I think all EU members have had failings in solidarity with each other not just the large/powerful ones.

    Some of the Eastern ones seem quite happy to cozy up to Xi and even Putin + shaft the rest if there's something in it for them. See also what happened (is still happening to lesser extent) in the migrant crisis. A distinct lack of solidarity from East to West/West to East and between the wealthy North/fairly migrant free East + poorer South mainly dealing with the problem.
    Also on your specific example of Germans not supporting war if Russia attacked, it is an extremely pacifist country for obvious reasons and it is hard/harsh to blame them for that. What % would be willing to support a war in defense of Germany itself??
    In Brexit, the EU members that have wobbled (only slightly) on solidarity with Ireland's position re NI border etc. are Poland and (I think??) Hungary, not the more powerful/richer Western states who of course are going to be hammered far more by a "no deal" brexit.


  • #36
    Melanchthon
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭Melanchthon


    fly_agaric wrote: »
    Some of the Eastern ones seem quite happy to cozy up to Xi and even Putin + shaft the rest if there's something in it for them. See also what happened (is still happening to lesser extent) in the migrant crisis. A distinct lack of solidarity from East to West/West to East and between the wealthy North/fairly migrant free East + poorer South mainly dealing with the problem.

    Thats one way of looking at eastern europe, the other is that the Hungarians started putting up fences and blocking refugee flows, solving the problem as they saw it and they were castigated.
    Agree about the general self interest though but AFAIK thats pretty recent while Nordstream II which some of them view as a slap in the face by Germany was planned before this.

    fly_agaric wrote: »
    In Brexit, the EU members that have wobbled (only slightly) on solidarity with Ireland's position re NI border etc. are Poland and (I think??) Hungary, not the more powerful/richer Western states who of course are going to be hammered far more by a "no deal" brexit.


    Possibly because they are less inclined to the federal ideals of a lot of the western European leaders, people like Tusk are lauded in the west but whats their popularity at home AFAIK its pretty low.


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