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12-09-2019, 12:47   #46
mariaalice
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I am reasonably sure Brexit will work its self out, however, people are very naive if they don't think there are civil emergency plans if thing go wrong not a coup, but school and university would be closed for a few days that sort of thing.
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12-09-2019, 12:59   #47
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...but school and university would be closed for a few days that sort of thing.

Likely the least of their worries, peoples bigger concerns would be finding a working ATM, filling up their wagons with gas, sourcing medicine, fresh food and paying new bills that will rise overnight as a couple of hundred thousand confront each other in the city.
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12-09-2019, 15:54   #48
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There was a coup. Johnson is still engaging in it.
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14-09-2019, 09:14   #49
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While highly unlikely, at the same time of you think back 5 years who would have thought Brexit, a mass firing of Tories, manipulation of the law to suit a PM agenda would also would be a thing.
In fairness mass firing of moderate tories was unthinkable at the start of this year when Theresa May was doing everything to hold the party together.
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14-09-2019, 09:21   #50
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I certainly don't regard Johnson bumbling about knocking over traditions and setting records for incompetence is a coup.

To get the UK into Coup territory, imagine No Deal goes through, Yellowhammer turns out to be super optimistic, there are real food shortages, panic buying, then just panic, looting, police and then army on the streets, a million people descend on Parliament, met by a half a million Brexiteers, riots, live ammo, blood in the streets, Johnson still bumbling about being ineffective...

I don't think any of that is particularly likely, but in those conditions an actual coup becomes possible.

If you look at the Venezuela situation and I don’t have much knowledge of it but it does appear to be a country in conditions similar or probably far beyond a worst case brexit scenario, and the government is still in power spouting spurious rhetoric and fantasy as to why they are in the situation they are in. People can put up with a lot if they buy in to what they are told or if the army stays on side I suppose.
I have no doubt hard brexiteers will put up with a lot of hardship to follow through on brexit and unfortunately all the political charisma and energy is on their side to sell whatever narrative needs to be sold.
However it is still difficult to believe such a situation could occur in such a sophisticated well connected prime located country like the UK. So much depends on this Supreme Court ruling next week.

Last edited by 20silkcut; 14-09-2019 at 09:30.
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14-09-2019, 10:02   #51
alentejo
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A coup in Britain? One should read Chris Mullin's "a very British Coup". An excellent read which was written over 30 years ago but so relevant with the political chaos in the UK.
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15-09-2019, 17:40   #52
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Serious question. What with all the turmoil uncertainty etc and the fact that most business organisations are fuming and scared sh*****s over Brexit what is the likelihood of a coup? I mean there have been plenty of coups in Europe in relatively recent years, Poland,Spain,Portugal, Greece etc.
What sort of coup? The one where a minority political force becomes the de facto government through force of arms? The separation of politics and the army in the UK seems pretty conclusive, I can't see any chance of a political group exerting force by using the army.

The difference that Brexit would make is a motivation by Remainers to undo Article 50, but they are working against a legitimacy deficit in the first place seeing that the public voted for just that, returned (barely) a government that said it was going to carry it out, and pro-Brexit parties are polling at 55% (even if, interestingly, a hypothetical second referendum is apparently only polling at 45% Leave) .

Not saying that Remainers or Leavers aren't and won't resort to political dirty tricks (a lá John Major and Maastricht), but those are a far cry from using physical force.

The other motivation is of course by pro-Bexit politicians who want a deal. These politicians are already in a majority in parliament, so there's no coup required. The problem is that these politicians can't agree what kind of agreement is desired.

And finally you have the pro-Brexit politicians who don't want a deal at all. These are in the minority, but they don't need a coup. All they need for no deal to happen is literally nothing at all.
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15-09-2019, 17:41   #53
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Peter Hitchens has longed for the death of the Tory Party. He might get his wish soon.

There'll be a split, undoubtedly.

Corbyn has done a great job keeping Labour together despite the differences in the party.

A coup on the otherhand, I doubt it somehow.
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15-09-2019, 17:48   #54
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Peter Hitchens has longed for the death of the Tory Party. He might get his wish soon.

There'll be a split, undoubtedly.

Corbyn has done a great job keeping Labour together despite the differences in the party.

A coup on the otherhand, I doubt it somehow.
the only way he's keeping them together is sheilding them from critacism behind his magic forcefield of not being able to win an election. They'd much rather shout from the cheap seats knowing that theres not a chance they'll be put to task to sort out brexit. As soon as all this mess is sorted theyll swap him for someone who can win.
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26-09-2019, 08:56   #55
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Serious question. What with all the turmoil uncertainty etc and the fact that most business organisations are fuming and scared sh*****s over Brexit what is the likelihood of a coup? I mean there have been plenty of coups in Europe in relatively recent years, Poland,Spain,Portugal, Greece etc.
Looking at the images coming from the house of commons last night I don't think it's too far fetched.
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26-09-2019, 09:04   #56
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I’d suspect the more likely outcome is going to be serious social unrest. The UK has a track record for this, despite the stiff upper lip marketing that somehow managed to portray the country as pragmatic and sensible, it really never has been.

Go back to the Poll Tax riots, the Miners’ Strikes, the Winter of Discontent etc etc even the Troubles in Northern Ireland occurred in the UK, despite their attempt to see it as somewhere else.

Then more recently you’d the London riots and you’ve had the assassination of an MP.

A coup isn’t likely, chaos, disruption and violence however seem to be and I suspect you will see that if there’s actual issues with food supply or power or something like that when Brexit happens. It’s a country where people called 999 when KFC had a minor disruption that caused them to run out of chicken!

Last edited by NotToScale; 26-09-2019 at 09:14.
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26-09-2019, 10:20   #57
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Coup is zero likelihood. The best and most relevant precedent is the dismissal of the Australian government on Nov 11th, 1975.

Here the crown played a passive role. The then speaker of the Australian House of Representatives send letter to the Queen to intervene.

The pertinent part of the reply is this;

"Her Majesty, as Queen of Australia, is watching events in Canberra with close interest and attention, but it would not be proper for her to intervene in person in matters which are so clearly placed within the jurisdiction of the Governor-General by the Constitution Act."

Replace "jurisdiction of the Governor-General by the Constitution Act" with "Westminster parliamentary procedures" and you get the likely attitude of the Queen, who is head of the armed forces. Additionally she is also mindful of how intervention gave Australian republicanism a short in the arm. So no coup, at least under the current Monarch. Charles.....different kettle of fish.

So I agree with the riots scenario.
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26-09-2019, 11:05   #58
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You're assuming that a coup has to be led by the Queen?
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26-09-2019, 14:37   #59
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The Queen doesn't necessarily have that ability under the UK constitution. Australia, as a former colony, is quite a different setup.

I think you have to also put it into the context that she's extremely elderly. Not many people at 93 years of age would be all that keen to be throwing themselves into a vicious political fight.

Effectively though, in the British setup, she is really powerless. All age can really do is maybe break convention and make a speech calling for calm.
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26-09-2019, 15:01   #60
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Reece-Mogg has been a jolly firm supporter of Boris for some time sitting /slouching behind him and throwing in the odd Hear hear. But I thought he looked a little uncomfortable last night on the bench and seemed to be thinking to himself "Why/How is this clown my boss! "
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