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22-10-2019, 21:29   #181
CirrusBusiness
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Serious amount of berries on the holly this year. May be an indication of things to come this winter. (Cold)
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22-10-2019, 21:57   #182
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Happy Christmas from the CFS!

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22-10-2019, 22:17   #183
Molly007
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Serious amount of berries on the holly this year. May be an indication of things to come this winter. (Cold)

Why would the amount of berries indicate cold to come ???
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22-10-2019, 22:56   #184
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Why would the amount of berries indicate cold to come ???
It's just one of those weather folklore with no scientific evidence. I seen a fair bit of them last year too.
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23-10-2019, 08:01   #185
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It's just one of those weather folklore with no scientific evidence. I seen a fair bit of them last year too.
Young sceptic!
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23-10-2019, 11:02   #186
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Yep, we rarely get more than 1 or 2 decent winters every 10 years. The 1980s were a bit of an exception. Most winters are Atlantic driven with a few brief north-westerlies delivering wet snow showers to the west and north. 2010 and 2018 of course brought plenty of snow, so right now we are not due another decent winter for some time. However there is no guarantee what any winter brings, we could get lucky this year.
I think we're due another one soon, grand solar minimum etc. Hopefully this year!
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23-10-2019, 11:24   #187
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It's just one of those weather folklore with no scientific evidence. I seen a fair bit of them last year too.
I used to believe that stuff too but it is nonsense. Last year was unreal for the crop of blackberries, sloe berries, hawthorn berries, crab apples and hazelnuts but the winter was fierce mild.
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23-10-2019, 15:04   #188
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Regards the whole solar minimum thing - if there is to be a link between colder winters for us then maybe this year isn't the one to look for. Last minimum there was a bit of a lag between the max of the minimum in 2008 till the cold of 2010 (albeit 09/10 was excellent too considering the usual offerings). Sunspot activity was recovering/ed in 2010.

2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)

More recent years;

2019 total: 219 days (74%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)

Better discussion elsewhere regards if any of the sunspot stuff is causal due to other minimums being clouded (literally eh?!) by volcanic eruptions etc. Basically don't pin hopes for a upcoming winters on sunspot counts.
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23-10-2019, 16:56   #189
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It would be good if this overall pattern could be maintained, but it will more than likely change for the worse
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24-10-2019, 08:18   #190
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It's a dangerous time of year for model watching. You can get caught up with absolutely phantom output. I've been following the models now for about 10 years, and if there is one thing they do without fail, it is churn out eye candy in the run up to winter. For some reason, at this period of the year, when the polar vortex is establishing itself, the models seem to hiccup and consistently model greenland and scandinavian blocking which never actually comes to pass. I see the same patterns this week. But normal business will soon return i expect, with the usual stormy conditions for our neighbourhood.
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24-10-2019, 11:18   #191
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It's a dangerous time of year for model watching. You can get caught up with absolutely phantom output. I've been following the models now for about 10 years, and if there is one thing they do without fail, it is churn out eye candy in the run up to winter. For some reason, at this period of the year, when the polar vortex is establishing itself, the models seem to hiccup and consistently model greenland and scandinavian blocking which never actually comes to pass. I see the same patterns this week. But normal business will soon return i expect, with the usual stormy conditions for our neighbourhood.
the latest runs are definitely staying on the cold side, temperatures look like being between 1 and 3 degree below average for the next 1 to 2 weeks if this plays off. We saw nothing like this at any stage last winter.



If this plays out, expect plenty of frosty nights and days will be chilly and fires will be lit! It's probably still a bit too early for lying snow in reality, but at least it will feel a bit more seasonal. Fairly certain the mountains will see some snow cover over the next 2 weeks, even if just temporary.
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24-10-2019, 13:20   #192
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What I find interesting with the current model runs that despite it being blocked and cold, the stratosphere remains cold and looks set to get even colder which should mean an increase in the mean zonal winds and an intensified jet stream. Strat and trop disconnecting unless we see a dramatic change in the outlook which is often the case in this country!
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29-10-2019, 09:48   #193
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I am going to start my usual White Christmas thread on Friday (I always waiting until 1 November to do that) but its worth mentioning that for a good few days now the CFS has been modelling a white Christmas. See a post a few days back already. Today's CFS shows the below. Maybe, just maybe....

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29-10-2019, 20:28   #194
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I said I would look at winters following exceptional mild ones in Ireland and this is what the reanalysis shows of these winters combined (with the exceptions of 2016-17 and 2017-18 following on from 2015-16 and 2016-17 respectively as NOAA/NCEP 20th Century Reanalysis only goes up to 2015) for Europe, both from a 500mb height perspective and a MSLP perspective.

There is not a lot we can pull from the 500mb height anomaly besides weak below average heights around the North Atlantic and a strong anticyclone sitting to the north of Russia. There is also below average heights over the med into North Africa. A strange chart.



A lot more information can be interpreted from the MSLP anomaly however with a strong Icelandic Low driving in the westerly winds across the North Atlantic but the two elements described in the 500mb height anomaly still are evident here, the high over Russia and the low in the Mediterranean. There is a lack of Euro High ridging from the Azores. This is a very wet and zonal chart but not the average mild and westerly driven one you see. The way I see it is that instead of the lows going west to east across northern Europe, they would attempt to dive southeastward at times. There'd be the possibility of the high to retrogress into Scandinavia I would have thought but such moments would be temporary with the active Atlantic.



This looks very similar to that of the pattern that Winter 1938-39 had . Two differences though include the Western Europe cyclone in the reanalysis above of the winters following exceptional mild ones being more over Iceland compared to over Ireland in 1938-39 and the extension of the high in 1938-39 from Russia was closer to the Arctic and was larger also (although this probably down to the severe cold spell in mid-December 1938 so this likely skewing it somewhat).



Anyway, this little analysis was just for a bit of craic but a bit coincidental how it shared similarities with 1938-39, a winter I mentioned only recently.

There continues to be the signal of an intensified stratospheric polar vortex during the first half of November, whilst being quite strong already, but the troposphere remains disconnected with a lot of blocking showing in the northern latitudes. This blocking has been a recurring theme all the way back to second half of April when the weather went unsettled following the warm Easter.

If the troposphere and stratosphere reconnect, we should see the NAO go strongly positive which is usually associated with stormy, mild to very mild and wet but currently no signal of that all. Instead, the first week of November is looking a bit on the cool and wet side and NAO on the relative weak negative side.



North Atlantic SSTs are mainly on the warm side generally with very little cooler than average regions besides an area between 40-60N. Not much sign on the tripole front at this point in time.

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29-10-2019, 22:37   #195
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I used to believe that stuff too but it is nonsense. Last year was unreal for the crop of blackberries, sloe berries, hawthorn berries, crab apples and hazelnuts but the winter was fierce mild.
Perhaps so for us in central heated homes, but maybe not so much for the wee burdies.
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