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Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

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    #62
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    lapua20grain wrote: »
    At this stage i'll only believe it when I see it falling from the sky

    Yep exactly, it’s what most of us say in a NWly :)
    “Believe it when I see it”


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    #63
    Shedbebreezy
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 76 ✭✭Shedbebreezy


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Someone is going to be bitterly disappointed....

    Not really. I'll be bitterly cold tho, already had a week of snow this Winter. Next week looks great for here, Not much to be excited about in Kildare tho


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    #64
    blast06
    Registered Users Posts: 228 ✭✭blast06


    Shedbebreezy wrote: »
    GEM ALWAYS shows uppers to be milder in these scenarios. Its a known bias.

    Why would a computer model have a deliberate ('known') bias ? I don't understand what the purpose of that would be, i.e.: if it is known to consistently misrepresent a specific scenario, then shouldn't that be programatically corrected ?


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    #65
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Shedbebreezy wrote: »
    Not really. I'll be bitterly cold tho, already had a week of snow this Winter. Next week looks great for here, Not much to be excited about in Kildare tho

    Nope exactly, not expecting anything here bar maybe some sleet showers


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    #66
    Shedbebreezy
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 76 ✭✭Shedbebreezy


    blast06 wrote: »
    Why would a computer model have a deliberate ('known') bias ? I don't understand what the purpose of that would be, i.e.: if it is known to consistently misrepresent a specific scenario, then shouldn't that be programatically corrected ?

    You need to ask the Canadians that not me


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    #67
    blast06
    Registered Users Posts: 228 ✭✭blast06


    Shedbebreezy wrote: »
    You need to ask the Canadians that not me

    Who is it "known" by ... i.e.: is it your opinion based on your observations of it over a number of years ... or is there some empirical data maintained by someone ?


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    #68
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    blast06 wrote: »
    Why would a computer model have a deliberate ('known') bias ? I don't understand what the purpose of that would be, i.e.: if it is known to consistently misrepresent a specific scenario, then shouldn't that be programatically corrected ?

    The bias is not deliberate. The GFS wasn't programmed to give snow charts every time there's a northwesterly, it's just a facet of the physics of the model. This error (bias) is known and allowed for by forecasting agencies, though not on public forums, it seems...:pac:


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    #69
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    That's some snow alright on the GFS.

    438386.png

    And now for a reality-check, brought to you by the ECMWF...

    438387.png


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    #70
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,796 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know. - Donald Rumsfeld

    Now can we for flip sake leave out these threads until we get to +36 and there is a genuine risk of disruptive snowfall. They are only contributing to the crying wolf issue.


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    #71
    Lenny5
    Registered Users Posts: 187 ✭✭Lenny5


    Wheres the fun in leaving it till 36 hrs. The fun of it is in the chase and the potential for snowy weather even this far out. Each and every upgrade and downgrade (Booo) adds to the suspence. Heres hoping that the optimists win this time :-)


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    #72
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    right now it's looking like this cold spell could last an entire week. I've a feeling Northern Ireland in particular could do really well out of this one as will Donegal, Cavan, Sligo, Mayo and possibly Galway. The real cold won't be here till late Monday so still really 4 days away and alot can change between now and then. Even the east and south may see a few flurries out of this one. Two things will be certain, the nights will be very cold and the heating bills will be high.


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    #73
    Neddyusa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I would say most of the greater Dublin region: Southern half of Meath, Dublin away from high ground, eastern half of Kildare, Wicklow away from high ground, Wexford, Waterford. These places really only get decent snow from a proper Siberian easterly and those are rare as hens teeth.

    Perhaps some other areas like Tipperary, coastal areas of Cork, Clare and Kerry away from high ground and parts of the midlands see very little snow.

    The counties that probably see snow each and every winter would be Donegal, Sligo, Mayo, Galway, Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim, Roscommon, not all parts see lying snow on an annual basis but they certainly see more white gold action than the rest of Ireland.

    Aye - but don't forget - us Westies also see a hell of a lot more rain too. :rolleyes:
    I'd gladly give the East coast our biteen of extra snow if you take all our extra rain too :D:D


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    #74
    lolie
    Registered Users Posts: 2,330 ✭✭✭lolie


    Gonzo wrote: »
    slightly OT but I just noticed RTE's lunchtime forecast has a new look with new graphics, map looks higher resolution and the 5 day outlook they were showing 0C for daytime on Monday and Tuesday with snow symbols over the west and north of the country.

    On the 6:1 forecast it's now showing 7c for Monday and Tuesday.


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    #75
    maryk123
    Registered Users Posts: 643 ✭✭✭maryk123


    Oh I would love some snow down south - just for a day mind so the kids could have a show day.


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    #76
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,877 ✭✭✭pauldry


    lolie wrote: »
    On the 6:1 forecast it's now showing 7c for Monday and Tuesday.

    Just put 7c down for next 20 days and you wont be far wrong


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    #77
    TheRiverman
    Registered Users Posts: 6,053 ✭✭✭TheRiverman


    Outlook
    Headline: Unsettled and changeableFriday night will be windy and very wet over the western half of the country, with heavy possibly thundery rain in many areas and some flooding. Winds will be strong to gale force and gusty southeasterly. Windy and mostly cloudy elsewhere too, with the rain spreading eastwards all the while and with some heavy rain in places by dawn. Lowest temperatures 4 to 8 C. Further rain in all areas during Saturday, with some heavy falls in more eastern areas. A misty, mostly cloudy day and a breezy start too, but the stiff southeast winds will moderate gradually. Top temperatures 7 to 10 C. The rain will peter out after dark and it will become misty. Some patches of fog will form and also some frost. Lows of zero to plus 3 C., are expected, in slack variable breezes, coldest in western areas. Sunday will be a mainly dry day, with just scattered patches of mist and drizzle. Overnight fog and any frost should clear. Top temperatures 7 to 10 C. At this stage, it looks as if Sunday night will turn wet and breezy.Early days of next week: Cool, windy and showery, with some wintry showers in places. Winds fresh to strong westerly much of the time. Cold at night, with some frost in places.


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    #78
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Met.ie do not use GFS as a primary forecasting tool so their outlook is not unexpected. Until more consensus appears (IF more consensus appears) this is a maybe.

    When people can't reconcile that "maybe" and start throwing their toys out of prams I lose all hope for humanity. It may or may not snow. Let's enjoy the speculation and live in hope


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    #79
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,796 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    pauldry wrote: »
    Just put 7c down for next 20 days and you wont be far wrong

    Welcome to the modified muck express.


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    #80
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    pauldry wrote: »
    lolie wrote: »
    On the 6:1 forecast it's now showing 7c for Monday and Tuesday.

    Just put 7c down for next 20 days and you wont be far wrong
    Not sure what you mean??
    It will be very cold polar air.


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    #81
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    The bias is not deliberate. The GFS wasn't programmed to give snow charts every time there's a northwesterly, it's just a facet of the physics of the model. This error (bias) is known and allowed for by forecasting agencies, though not on public forums, it seems...:pac:

    Does the ECM have any bias in such situations? I read on another site that it can tend to underestimate uppers slightly.


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    #82
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    The GFS bias is an absolute constant for wrongly predicting snow from marginal situations like this from a NW source at ground level for December and January. I would say at least 4/5 snow charts at 120 hours for Dublin for instance not materialising (when air mass from NW source) However, into February and March the model comes more in line with reality with more of its snow charts verifying. Probably cooling sea temps. Maybe it doesn’t quite handle the warmer sea temps in earlier winter?


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    #83
    booferking
    Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭booferking


    A few need to chill Sunday night is when met Eireann will give warnings and through the coming days the wording in the forecast will change to snow showers there already mentioning wintry showers.


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    #84
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    A promising forecast from M.T.Cranium for next week.

    NEXT WEEK will become progressively colder in a northwest flow, showers becoming increasingly wintry each day to about Thursday which may be the coldest day, although Friday will see only limited recovery. Highs around 7 C on Monday, 6 C on Tuesday and only 3-5 C Wednesday to Friday, and slight frosts each night, in a persistently windy regime between westerly and northwesterly most of the time, in the range of 50 to 80 km/hr, making the temperatures feel more like +1 C in the daytime. Falls of snow are quite likely by mid-week in higher parts of Connacht, west Ulster and west Munster. These will be less likely near east and south coasts but mixed wintry showers will probably be rather widespread at times, with thunder and hail in the mix as well.

    The further outlook calls for a somewhat less windy interval but staying rather cold, and any milder intervals will be very brief as this large scale pattern of cold, unsettled conditions shows little signs of moving away.


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    #85
    yorlum11
    Registered Users Posts: 342 ✭✭yorlum11


    Let's just hang in there until Monday. Synopsis look good for a few days next week. Potential is there. West and north obviously a good spot as per location but very often it's a now cast and areas not in the sweet spot now get on on the action last minute. Longer term it might be north east and east that is preferred. Hopefully exciting times ahead. #sneachta


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    #86
    Shedbebreezy
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 76 ✭✭Shedbebreezy


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    That's some snow alright on the GFS.

    438386.png

    And now for a reality-check, brought to you by the ECMWF...

    438387.png

    Yes by 9pm Monday not much showing on the ECM as indicated by the ECM Snow accumulations(inches) for that time

    The following day more across the NW

    Copious amounts across the NW as week progresses. I'm expecting snow in donegal but not over 16 inches:p

    I know they won't be accurate but it's forecasting snow to fall, not just rain as 9pm Monday indicates, and a snow fest at that for the Northern West. Not much of a reality-check to be fair lol.


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    #87
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    the one thing you don't get from the models in the predicted NW Polar Maritime setup is a flip flopping from run to run like the mythical scandi high.

    could we get thundersnow next week, a definite possibility in the NW


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    #88
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I haven't read this entire thread but hopefully it was mentioned that when we had the "Greenland express" in 2010 (my terminology IIRC) that air mass came south from northeast Greenland at a high rate of speed so it only spent 24 hours over waters over 7 C whereas this time it's coming the longer route from southeast Greenland and will take 48-72h to arrive, more time to modify -- although thicknesses on charts do support the idea of lying snow in higher parts of the north and west.

    The situation could upgrade or perhaps not, will assess carefully overnight.


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    #89
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    I haven't read this entire thread but hopefully it was mentioned that when we had the "Greenland express" in 2010 (my terminology IIRC) that air mass came south from northeast Greenland at a high rate of speed so it only spent 24 hours over waters over 7 C whereas this time it's coming the longer route from southeast Greenland and will take 48-72h to arrive, more time to modify -- although thicknesses on charts do support the idea of lying snow in higher parts of the north and west.

    The situation could upgrade or perhaps not, will assess carefully overnight.

    was it not a shortlived NWesterly followed by a colder Northerly?


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    #90
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The Greenland Express reference was to a full-on northerly and it was moving south at over 50 knots (surface winds were not quite that strong). This present set-up is less extreme but maybe it will upgrade, we shall see.


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    #91
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,877 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Hasnt this Winter been the most exciting since 2010?

    Even though its been borderline and 7c is quite possible for a few days or weeks and even as low as 5c at times theres been lots this Winter

    Snow at start of December, Elanor!! with its tail of destruction and power cuts, lots of frost and then a day like today with 24 hour fog that reached a max of 1.6c and a min of -0.6c to name just a few

    What Im saying is this Winter hadnt been meh at all in comparison to previous ones and certainly wont be described as a mild Winter

    So far overall Id describe it as a cold and mixed Winter with a few storms plus of course 6 lightning strikes last Friday that have broke our sky box forever.

    Add in a collapsed tree from Elanor and a snowman (mini) from the December Snow...i have weather memorobelia (htf do you spell that?) Everywhere


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