Share Picks 2020

Jim2007 · 16-10-2020 9:41am

One More Toy wrote: »

I figured I can't buy us etfs anymore (thanks EU you robbing b#stards) so ill buy the top companies in the s+p 500

Unless you have very deep pockets, you cannot replicate performance that way. There are only two strategies that work when investing in individual stocks, for Joe or Mary and that is growth or value and this is neither.

You’re constructing an old man’s portfolio, something you’d expect someone in my position to hold - income plus a little exposure to growth in retirement.

Have you considered investment trusts etc as an alternative?

Jim2007 · 16-10-2020 9:55am

Atlas_IRL wrote: »

Seriously if I didn't have to save for a mortgage I'd be putting money into their stock of the month every month. Their performance is insane.

It is insane because it’s a false comparison used by most stock picking services. Asset allocation accounts for the biggest part of a portfolio’s return not stock picking, but they ignore it and that’s how they get the crazy figures. They are basically doing the easy part and leaving you to do the difficult part on your own.

Starting out, the Gardner brothers used to do the asset part and while the figures were reasonable, their business only really took off when they dropped the asset allocation part

One More Toy · 16-10-2020 10:17am

Jim2007 wrote: »

Unless you have very deep pockets, you cannot replicate performance that way. There are only two strategies that work when investing in individual stocks, for Joe or Mary and that is growth or value and this is neither.

You’re constructing an old man’s portfolio, something you’d expect someone in my position to hold - income plus a little exposure to growth in retirement.

Have you considered investment trusts etc as an alternative?

I know it has its limitations as you say, I will go back to EU based etfs soon. Bloody deemed disposal is a nightmare

Mickiemcfist · 16-10-2020 10:34am

Jim2007 wrote: »

It is insane because it’s a false comparison used by most stock picking services. Asset allocation accounts for the biggest part of a portfolio’s return not stock picking, but they ignore it and that’s how they get the crazy figures. They are basically doing the easy part and leaving you to do the difficult part on your own.

Starting out, the Gardner brothers used to do the asset part and while the figures were reasonable, their business only really took off when they dropped the asset allocation part

Agreed it's not the solution to how to make millions on the stock market, but I don't really have the time to read each listed companies prospectus, earnings, future opportunities, look into their management, product pipeline etc. figure out which businesses are appealing & which ones are duds.

I use the Motley fool as a stock market scanner, they highlight ones worth looking into & so I do a deep dive on those and pick my highlights of their highlights. I'm 30 & put €300 per month into my account and divy it out relatively evenly across c.20 stocks, in the hope that over the longer term it'll average decent enough. Again, I don't have the time to monitor these stocks very closely as 20 is quite high, but when you have favourites on Motley fool you get updates on when their guidance changes or when it's in the news. I have 5 stocks that are picked from other sources so I have to watch those closer.

Started this "strategy" 2 years ago, 30% ARR but that's too short a timeframe to read anything into, there isn't a hope in hell of it staying that high over any sort of long term. But without a stock picking service of some sort I'd definitely be slower to find stocks I like, so they have their uses.

Shedite27 · 16-10-2020 10:56am

Jim2007 wrote: »

It is insane because it’s a false comparison used by most stock picking services. Asset allocation accounts for the biggest part of a portfolio’s return not stock picking, but they ignore it and that’s how they get the crazy figures. They are basically doing the easy part and leaving you to do the difficult part on your own.

Starting out, the Gardner brothers used to do the asset part and while the figures were reasonable, their business only really took off when they dropped the asset allocation part

Do ya mean which stocks to put the most cash into?

RIGOLO · 16-10-2020 11:09am

Shedite27 wrote: »

Rigolo, you seem more experienced than most here, do you think that these young investors they talk about have enough weight to mvoe the market? I would have thought they are only a drop in the pond compred to the investment banks. Whenever I see a big stock movement it seems to be backed by the kind of volume that college students don't have access to

Trading volume by new investors is off the charts. Stimulus checks and sitting at home have left millions of them with little to do but invest. And good luck to them, my bitter comments on them are jests, its tough being a young person these days but get over it and no reason to stop taking hte piss lifes too short.

Anyways you add up millions of new investors with access to a reasonable starting stake , plus availability of options and it all adds up to a sizeable money chest that Wall St is only too happy to scoop up.
The big firms dont make their money purely by doing 8 or 9 figure deals, they have or had floors of eager beavers picking up a few k here and there on a trade from young investors.
Drop a dollar on Wall St some time and wait to see how many suits bend over to pick it up.

Its all rigged, against the newbie I dont see it ending well . I could be wrong.
Among other things, if you knew how the system worked you would know that HFTs (high frequency trading firms) are paying your broker to access your order flow before its even executed. Lightning fast computers and fibre optics are giving them an edge in the mili secs in takes for your trade to go thru.
Bernie Maddoff mastered this back in the day, and we all know where he ended up . Its legal buried somewhere in the small print. How else do you think RH and discount brokers can give you 'free' services.. theres no such thing .

I dont have time to get into the debate on PE ratios that an earlier poster took umbrage at, I could list 20 metrics that wall st are ignoring in their valuations of some stock market stars, I just picked one for ease of posting.

NCYT doing well this morning up 5%, hope everyone enjoyed this weeks roller coaster.
They bought a company ITS this week, a supplier , great move bringing them in house for only 10million , and there seems to be brokers note from Numis setting a £15 valuation on them. Climb aboard the next segment of track is all up.

as to how many in the portfolio including options positions lets just say more than 50 less than 100 . Ive learned to ignore the portfolio for large stretches, if I made the right calls then I shouldnt have to check in regularly. IF I didnt its on me. ITs only money , suns out early cycle today methinks.

Jim2007 · 16-10-2020 11:33am

Shedite27 wrote: »

Do ya mean which stocks to put the most cash into?

Pretty much. I don't maintain a database for back testing anymore because I'm retired...

But if you have a good database for back testing and access to the old newsletters you can test different strategies yourself. Start with say 50k and add say another 1k per month. If you try and hold every position, even if one doubles it will have very little difference in the overall return. On the other hand if you are selective and have to make the sell decisions alone, then your own decisions will have the biggest impact on the over all return, not the stock picker.

I would take these newsletters as good stock suggestions for investigation, but I'd pay no attention whatsoever to the returns claims - but unfortunately many people do.

littlevillage · 16-10-2020 11:47am

RIGOLO wrote: »

Ive ridden the NYCT ride for months, and these dips are buying oppurtunitys, (8.97 euro) after the big scare today . IVe seen this patttern repeated 10 times in 5 months but each time we reocver and go onto higher highs.
MCAP is south of 700M and recent contract with NHS is north of 450M , with profit margins over 60%, cases are growing around the world, this virus is with us , everytime we open up cases explode. Expect an RNS update on sales and contracts this month.
Im buying up a chunk more , Ive already multi-bagged so Feb 2021 is the time I will reveiw .

NYCT having a good day.

.

I'm nicely in the green already. Nice shout RIGOLO

DutchYurt · 16-10-2020 2:38pm

I've gone in big on Fastly, wish me luck!

sirboby · 16-10-2020 2:52pm

Sold Amazon and most of my Disney shares on prime day

Intel is having a strong month.
Albertsons is having a strong month.
Grafton Group is doing fine considering I only have a very small amount.
Increased my position in 4D pharma, tempted to average down if it hits the high 80's.

I have about 30% my position in cash at the moment so I am open to suggestions.

DutchYurt · 16-10-2020 3:09pm

DutchYurt wrote: »

I've gone in big on Fastly, wish me luck!

Its not going well :pac:

sirboby · 16-10-2020 3:14pm

DutchYurt wrote: »

Its not going well :pac:

Oof, what did you buy at?

DutchYurt · 16-10-2020 3:15pm

sirboby wrote: »

Oof, what did you buy at?

91.10 and its just dripped down since, should have waited for it to settle a bit, going to try some averaging down if I can

RIGOLO · 16-10-2020 5:37pm

Looks like HTZ are back in business.
I had written off that investment I made in them a few months ago and put it down to a learning lesson.
They have jumped 100% 2.08 today , back in green for me.. looks like its a different lesson to be learnt.
HTZ too big to fail, too much losses for the big boys tied up in it,

They have accepted an offer for a 1.5 billion loan. The loan is waiting court approval . When it does I expect this will jump again , considering taking another dip. This is a HIGH RISK stock, tied up in bankruptcy court , loans , bailouts you name it .. throw your dice and roll a 7.

EDIT : 2.58 now , 150% .. that was a quick buck on a dip

DutchYurt · 16-10-2020 7:12pm

RIGOLO wrote: »

Looks like HTZ are back in business.
I had written off that investment I made in them a few months ago and put it down to a learning lesson.
They have jumped 100% 2.08 today , back in green for me.. looks like its a different lesson to be learnt.
HTZ too big to fail, too much losses for the big boys tied up in it,

They have accepted an offer for a 1.5 billion loan. The loan is waiting court approval . When it does I expect this will jump again , considering taking another dip. This is a HIGH RISK stock, tied up in bankruptcy court , loans , bailouts you name it .. throw your dice and roll a 7.

EDIT : 2.58 now , 150% .. that was a quick buck on a dip

WOW nice jump, will wait for the next dip to jump in, recover some fastly losses

Nemeses2050 · 16-10-2020 7:56pm

Fastly close to the buy range now....anyone interested in commodities should look at Schlumberger.

jams100 · 16-10-2020 9:46pm

Was watching amazons stock price during the last few minutes of trading.
In about the last 30 seconds their share price dropped an extra 2%.
Step back for a second. That equates to about 30 billion, to Rigolos point a day or two ago, these institutions have such a weight they can move a stock very quickly. (I'm just presuming that it was a large holder and not lots of smaller holds considering the very, very short time it took for the stock to drop 2%).

I know it has risen again a tiny bit in after hours.
Edit (Deleted previous post after posting wrong image

).

manonboard · 17-10-2020 8:06am

jams100 wrote: »

Was watching amazons stock price during the last few minutes of trading.
In about the last 30 seconds their share price dropped an extra 2%.
Step back for a second. That equates to about 30 billion, to Rigolos point a day or two ago, these institutions have such a weight they can move a stock very quickly. (I'm just presuming that it was a large holder and not lots of smaller holds considering the very, very short time it took for the stock to drop 2%).

I know it has risen again a tiny bit in after hours.
Edit (Deleted previous post after posting wrong image ).

Yeah was very surprised by that sudden drop. With earnings coming up I believe they are in for a very nice record.
Can't imagine a better time for online retail and more importantly cloud tech. I domt remember the last time saw medium or bigger company not moving into thier cloud. Still years ahead of others imo.

Jim2007 · 17-10-2020 10:17am

jams100 wrote: »

That equates to about 30 billion, to Rigolos point a day or two ago, these institutions have such a weight they can move a stock very quickly.

Unless you have access to the order book and watch it regularly it is difficult to draw and strong conclusions, but even a large cap very rarely makes up even 1% of a portfolio, so there are maybe a handful of institutions that can have that kind of impact. It is why we advise individual investors to stick to main stream stocks - they are difficult to manipulate.

If you have access to the order book and depending on the stock, you will notice the price adjustments often happen at certain times of the day. This is when the funds providers execute the orders that Joe and Mary investor made. For instance a certain European bank does Europe morning at 12:17, usually about 7 billion, European afternoon at 16:56, around 3 billion and US all day at 19:13 around 11 billion. And so on.

manonboard wrote: »

Yeah was very surprised by that sudden drop. With earnings coming up I believe they are in for a very nice record.

Watch the order books, this is typically practice. Remember fund managers are not there to make you a profit, they are there to make their employer a profit and the best way to do that is retain the client. So you sell of before the release and buy back after it. That way you can assure the client his fund does not hold any of the stock on bad news and vice versa. Of course if it is really good news the fund will suffer on the buy back.... That is is why we advise people to examine the stock churn on a fund before investing.

RIGOLO · 17-10-2020 10:31am

DutchYurt wrote: »

WOW nice jump, will wait for the next dip to jump in, recover some fastly losses

MArkets closed so Saturday is time to read the FT weekend section and pontificate or spout bs over coffee.
Class is in session , quite at the back . Been some people on here looking for advice, arent we all. fwiw HTZ are going to give a newbie who chooses to trade them more education in the next few weeks than any book , link or other resource. Those all have their place, but theres nothing like jumping on a roller coaster like HTZ to learn the ropes.

Newbies buy some HTZ and you will learn alot with little risk of major loss (dont bet the farm on it). The lessons you learn will stand to you on some bigger trades. This company is going thru so much litigation, speculation, shorting, manipulation that it will be a case study in years to come when lectures are back in our failing educational institutions.

1 BILLION shares traded in HTZ yesterday , (that answers our recent debate if Robinhooders were numerous enough to swing a market) . But this isnt all small investors, the instituions are playing this stock, heck we landed right on the 2.50 mark putting all those calls otm.
1 billion shares traded that was so cool to watch the number rise , effectively every share was traded 7 times in the day and 300 million shorted.
Talk of a loan. Court appeals pending , 100% + swings. A long term investor patience may pay off but its also a day traders delight. Creditors exposed. Lots of physical assets... the list goes on and on , HTZ is capitalism condensed everyone can learn from this , do some research follow the behind the scense events and grab a jumbo seat and popcorn.
Its only 2.50 , the cheapest roller coaster ride in lockdown.

EDIT : Rumour is OCT 29th is the Court date to rule if HTZ can take up the 1.5Billion loan, which is only 12 sleeps ...

Happy to have parked some cash (relative risk free but no major jump expected) in some companies that trade in a narrow band and are relatively immune to covid. flour, soup and high quality glass... GIA, CPB (edit B.. not E ) , GLW

bfa1509 · 17-10-2020 9:54pm

jams100 wrote: »

Was watching amazons stock price during the last few minutes of trading.
In about the last 30 seconds their share price dropped an extra 2%.
Step back for a second. That equates to about 30 billion, to Rigolos point a day or two ago, these institutions have such a weight they can move a stock very quickly. (I'm just presuming that it was a large holder and not lots of smaller holds considering the very, very short time it took for the stock to drop 2%).

I know it has risen again a tiny bit in after hours.
Edit (Deleted previous post after posting wrong image ).

That was a glitch-out by Degiro. I nearly had heart attack when I saw it down 3.98% at close. I new there was something wrong when I saw the bid price about $200 higher than the ask price.

I'm sure it will correct itself on Monday.

Edit: Ok on further inspection it wasn't a glitch by degiro:

So the heart attack was justified :O

manonboard · 17-10-2020 11:23pm

bfa1509 wrote: »

That was a glitch-out by Degiro. I nearly had heart attack when I saw it down 3.98% at close. I new there was something wrong when I saw the bid price about $200 higher than the ask price.

I'm sure it will correct itself on Monday.

Edit: Ok on further inspection it wasn't a glitch by degiro:

So the heart attack was justified :O

I was surprised by that dip given its coming up to earnings.. but perhaps some just profit taking.

Im super bullish amazon.
We have 3 companies that every mid n large size company is going to move thier IT infrastructure into. They ain't pulling back out after converting to cloud and its inevitable it gets more expensive n more load once in. Of these three..amazon has a massive head start.
Imagine the profit from being the host of every major companies IT over the next few years n decade. A dream for amazon which I think will come true. It will seem so obvious in hindsight.

Im 25pc invested in them fyi. Will hold for a decade or two unless a fantastic surge happens too quickly. A stock split will happen soon enough too I think. Another bump in price (for silly reasons)

PHG · 18-10-2020 10:32pm

manonboard wrote: »

I was surprised by that dip given its coming up to earnings.. but perhaps some just profit taking.

A drop on any share price just before and/or on earnings is common due to profit taking.

For smaller shares also common due to MM's trying to pick up shares before result releases.

The above is just a general point, I do not hold or have much interest in US stocks.

Nemeses2050 · 19-10-2020 10:20am

RIGOLO wrote: »

MArkets closed so Saturday is time to read the FT weekend section and pontificate or spout bs over coffee.
Class is in session , quite at the back . Been some people on here looking for advice, arent we all. fwiw HTZ are going to give a newbie who chooses to trade them more education in the next few weeks than any book , link or other resource. Those all have their place, but theres nothing like jumping on a roller coaster like HTZ to learn the ropes.

Newbies buy some HTZ and you will learn alot with little risk of major loss (dont bet the farm on it). The lessons you learn will stand to you on some bigger trades. This company is going thru so much litigation, speculation, shorting, manipulation that it will be a case study in years to come when lectures are back in our failing educational institutions.

1 BILLION shares traded in HTZ yesterday , (that answers our recent debate if Robinhooders were numerous enough to swing a market) . But this isnt all small investors, the instituions are playing this stock, heck we landed right on the 2.50 mark putting all those calls otm.
1 billion shares traded that was so cool to watch the number rise , effectively every share was traded 7 times in the day and 300 million shorted.
Talk of a loan. Court appeals pending , 100% + swings. A long term investor patience may pay off but its also a day traders delight. Creditors exposed. Lots of physical assets... the list goes on and on , HTZ is capitalism condensed everyone can learn from this , do some research follow the behind the scense events and grab a jumbo seat and popcorn.
Its only 2.50 , the cheapest roller coaster ride in lockdown.

EDIT : Rumour is OCT 29th is the Court date to rule if HTZ can take up the 1.5Billion loan, which is only 12 sleeps ...

Happy to have parked some cash (relative risk free but no major jump expected) in some companies that trade in a narrow band and are relatively immune to covid. flour, soup and high quality glass... GIA, CPB (edit B.. not E ) , GLW

Rigolo - I wouldn't recommend HTZ to anyone let alone newbies even if it's small amount and TBH don't think they'll pick-up much either as you know HTZ equity is doomed to be wipedout...

Jim2007 · 19-10-2020 10:55am

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Rigolo - I wouldn't recommend HTZ to anyone let alone newbies even if it's small amount and TBH don't think they'll pick-up much either as you know HTZ equity is doomed to be wipedout...

Agreed, in newbies would be well advised to ignore most of what is said here they have the skill to filter out the BS.

@Rigolo

But this isnt all small investors, the instituions are playing this stock, heck we landed right on the 2.50 mark putting all those calls otm.

Do you have access to the order books, in sufficient detail to back up this statement with actual facts, or are you just repeating what the talking heads are saying?

Kilboor · 19-10-2020 11:12am

Not sure if I've mentioned it before but Store Capital $STOR is a company I've been looking at the last month or so. It's difficult to put a value on it currently with it being a real estate company but they are well managed, pay a nice dividend yield of approx 5.5%, have nice growth potential depending on how long Covid will be around for, have the backing of Warren Buffett who owns 10% of the outstanding shares, and a somewhat different letting strategy focusing on companies whose sales won't be as impacted by future ecommerce growth.

It's a risky long play but might be worth a punt.

Joseph Carlson has an excellent Youtube channel for investing in general but here's his video on Store Capital

https://youtu.be/h8lTZgAKsJU

Wombatman · 19-10-2020 11:43am

I wonder what the premium coffee drinking Robinhood millennials are up to this morning after the block parties they had at the weekend?

Mickiemcfist · 19-10-2020 11:55am

Kilboor wrote: »

Not sure if I've mentioned it before but Store Capital $STOR is a company I've been looking at the last month or so. It's difficult to put a value on it currently with it being a real estate company but they are well managed, pay a nice dividend yield of approx 5.5%, have nice growth potential depending on how long Covid will be around for, have the backing of Warren Buffett who owns 10% of the outstanding shares, and a somewhat different letting strategy focusing on companies whose sales won't be as impacted by future ecommerce growth.

It's a risky long play but might be worth a punt.

Joseph Carlson has an excellent Youtube channel for investing in general but here's his video on Store Capital

https://youtu.be/h8lTZgAKsJU

It's probably a good option to go long on while shorting other REITs, but I wouldn't be brave enough to be exposed to what may be a wholesale closure of shops over the next few years. If it was cheaper I'd be tempted but it's the same price it was two years ago but is inherently more risky than it was 2 years ago. (IMO)

RIGOLO · 19-10-2020 1:04pm

Jim2007 wrote: »

Agreed, in newbies would be well advised to ignore most of what is said here they have the skill to filter out the BS.
@Rigolo
Do you have access to the order books, in sufficient detail to back up this statement with actual facts, or are you just repeating what the talking heads are saying?

Like I said HTZ is an oppurtunity for a newbie at low risk with a low stake to experience many vagaries of market action in a short space of time. It will be very volatile for the next month and give both an education and a roller coaster ride.

Its a free world people can take it or leave it, I took my own advice , nice 142% gain on Friday , bought a dip and picked up another 25% and looking green this morning too as shorts get a squeeze. Its called Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection..'protection' being the key word, the story hasnt ended yet, and where theres lawyers theres hope...

asking about an order book and if institutions are buying in after 1 billion shares have traded in as single day in a single stock, is like asking someone how do they know it rained alot if they didnt read a weather forecast, as they stand in 5 feet of water in their flooded living room...

[Deleted User] · 19-10-2020 2:18pm

Edesa, my main play up 24% before the bell. FDA approval for stage 2 Trials for Covid Therapy. Already had been approved in Canada. Waiting on government funding now. Had hoped for a bigger move, but hopefully no spike with more steady climb.

Share Picks 2020

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