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Recession predictions

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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Geuze wrote: »
    The NTMA do re-finance debt, it has been happening all year.

    Yeah but literally right now would be a pretty good time. :pac:

    Hopefully we don't miss the boat.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,368 Mod ✭✭✭✭andrew


    Yeah but literally right now would be a pretty good time. :pac:

    Hopefully we don't miss the boat.

    Check out the third paragraph of this report. The NTMA refinanced half of Irish government debt between 2014 and 2018, to take advantage of low rates.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,992 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Yeah but literally right now would be a pretty good time. :pac:

    Hopefully we don't miss the boat.

    Bond sales are planned a few weeks/months in advance.

    But I'm sure the NTMA will do everything possible to take advantage of low yields.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,992 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Yeah but literally right now would be a pretty good time. :pac:

    Hopefully we don't miss the boat.

    https://www.ntma.ie/news/ntma-auction-schedule-for-quarter-3-2019



    NTMA Auction Schedule for Quarter 3, 2019

    1 July 2019 – The National Treasury Management Agency announces the following auction schedule for the current calendar quarter, subject to market conditions.

    Thursday 11 July 2019 (Bond auction)
    Thursday 18 July 2019 (Treasury Bill auction)
    Thursday 12 September 2019 (Bond auction)
    Thursday 19 September 2019 (Treasury Bill auction)

    Details will be announced on the Monday prior to each auction.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭Tea drinker


    LONDON, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Sweden’s 20-year government bond yield fell below zero for the first time on Friday, taking the country’s entire yield curve negative.

    Sweden, where the key central bank interest rate is -0.25%, joins Denmark, Germany, Switzerland and the Netherlands with the whole bond curve yielding less than zero.

    The yield on the Swedish 20-year bond, the longest dated maturity in Sweden, fell 4 basis points to -0.004% .
    https://www.reuters.com/article/sweden-bonds/entire-swedish-yield-curve-now-negative-as-20-yr-bond-yield-falls-below-zero-idUSL8N25C2QW

    Nice club to be in! We have only one more planned for Q3 Geuze? What's the thoughts on this yield being available to Ireland in Q3 and Q4?
    Is Brexit uncertainty impacting our future bond sales..


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭Voltex


    https://www.reuters.com/article/sweden-bonds/entire-swedish-yield-curve-now-negative-as-20-yr-bond-yield-falls-below-zero-idUSL8N25C2QW

    Nice club to be in! We have only one more planned for Q3 Geuze? What's the thoughts on this yield being available to Ireland in Q3 and Q4?
    Is Brexit uncertainty impacting our future bond sales..

    Swedish bond yield sinking on the news its economy is half way to recession...
    https://www.thelocal.se/20190731/swedens-economy-unexpectedly-shrinks-in-second-quarter

    The flight of capital from equities to bonds is a flight to safety.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭theguzman


    Gerald Celente and Nouriel Roubini both came out with some dire forecasts in the last few days, what we are going to witness in the next few months will make the GFC of 2008 and 1929 look like a cakewalk. Ireland will be particularly decimated is my own prediction. Forecasts range from a harsh recession at best to World War Three at worst.

    China and the US are stuck in a Thucydides trap and will edge towards war in my opinion. The global economy needs a hard reset button and with catastrophic environmental challenges, demographic crisis in Europe and a migration crisis then we will see economies and nation states crash. China is going through massive internal pressures now like never before seen and it remains to be seen if the Communist Party can retain control, the easiest option will be to go to war against its outside aggressor enemy. Trump may need such an event to unify the states behind him also for 2020 or simply suspend elections and declare martial law in a time of Emergency.

    Europe will turn to the far-Right in this time of calamity, In Ireland as the economy crashes and there is no safety valve of immigration then we will see a resurgent conflict in Northern Ireland and this is already starting right now before a hard border is even implemented.

    The next 12 months will unparalleled in peoples lives world wide. Sorry for being so negative and pessimistic but I feel there is a buildup towards this for years and I hope I am wrong.


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭benjamin d


    Nonsense (I hope!)

    IMO the US and China are too big to fight each other and at worst will get it out of their system with a proxy war in some ****hole of their choosing, probably Iran.

    Brexit will quite possibly profoundly affect Britain but I think the EU will probably get away with a fairly mild recession.

    As for NI, that one could easily become a severe problem if not handled maturely by all involved.

    Having said all that I can't claim to know what I'm talking about on geopolitics or economics and I'm always interested to learn more from people who do


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    theguzman wrote: »
    Gerald Celente and Nouriel Roubini both came out with some dire forecasts in the last few days, what we are going to witness in the next few months will make the GFC of 2008 and 1929 look like a cakewalk. Ireland will be particularly decimated is my own prediction. Forecasts range from a harsh recession at best to World War Three at worst.

    China and the US are stuck in a Thucydides trap and will edge towards war in my opinion. The global economy needs a hard reset button and with catastrophic environmental challenges, demographic crisis in Europe and a migration crisis then we will see economies and nation states crash. China is going through massive internal pressures now like never before seen and it remains to be seen if the Communist Party can retain control, the easiest option will be to go to war against its outside aggressor enemy. Trump may need such an event to unify the states behind him also for 2020 or simply suspend elections and declare martial law in a time of Emergency.

    Europe will turn to the far-Right in this time of calamity, In Ireland as the economy crashes and there is no safety valve of immigration then we will see a resurgent conflict in Northern Ireland and this is already starting right now before a hard border is even implemented.

    The next 12 months will unparalleled in peoples lives world wide. Sorry for being so negative and pessimistic but I feel there is a buildup towards this for years and I hope I am wrong.

    Jaysus...what are you doing to prepare for this?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sasha Magnificent Boot


    theguzman wrote: »
    Gerald Celente
    He's been banging this drum for many a year on radio chat shows, podcasts and smaller sat channels. Davey Icke would be a much more accurate forecaster than this lad.

    This snippet from his wikipage summaries his persona perfectly:
    Hugo Lindgren and ABC News have labelled Celente's predictions "pessimism porn" for their doom and the alleged eschatological thrill some people receive from imagining his predictions of the collapse of civil society in the wake of a global economic crisis


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,096 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Pussyhands wrote: »
    can someone explain what the whole "inverted yield curve" is people talk about?

    What are treasuries and bonds and the difference in their terms and why is it important? And do you believe the point people make that when the yield curve inverts, a recession will result?

    They invert because people investing look at mid term figures and see weakness, not necessarily immediate though, that inverts it.

    It is indicative, not a causing effect.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    theguzman wrote: »
    Gerald Celente and Nouriel Roubini both came out with some dire forecasts in the last few days, what we are going to witness in the next few months will make the GFC of 2008 and 1929 look like a cakewalk. Ireland will be particularly decimated is my own prediction. Forecasts range from a harsh recession at best to World War Three at worst.

    China and the US are stuck in a Thucydides trap and will edge towards war in my opinion. The global economy needs a hard reset button and with catastrophic environmental challenges, demographic crisis in Europe and a migration crisis then we will see economies and nation states crash. China is going through massive internal pressures now like never before seen and it remains to be seen if the Communist Party can retain control, the easiest option will be to go to war against its outside aggressor enemy. Trump may need such an event to unify the states behind him also for 2020 or simply suspend elections and declare martial law in a time of Emergency.

    Europe will turn to the far-Right in this time of calamity, In Ireland as the economy crashes and there is no safety valve of immigration then we will see a resurgent conflict in Northern Ireland and this is already starting right now before a hard border is even implemented.

    The next 12 months will unparalleled in peoples lives world wide. Sorry for being so negative and pessimistic but I feel there is a buildup towards this for years and I hope I am wrong.

    All very likely, it's all starting to boil over.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,096 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    https://www.reuters.com/article/sweden-bonds/entire-swedish-yield-curve-now-negative-as-20-yr-bond-yield-falls-below-zero-idUSL8N25C2QW

    Nice club to be in! We have only one more planned for Q3 Geuze? What's the thoughts on this yield being available to Ireland in Q3 and Q4?
    Is Brexit uncertainty impacting our future bond sales..

    It is the wrong place to be in.

    That bond yields are like that across so much of Europe should have people in a cold sweat.


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭tomwaits48


    KevinCavan wrote: »
    Ya I think this p.c.p. is all about fast money, with no regard for actual future values. Anybody buying a 2 litre diesel new today is fcuked in my opinion.

    how so? can't you just hand the car back?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 69 ✭✭rhubarbcustard


    im Starting to get interested in all of this, it usually would all go over my head but I have been following Celentes videos for past few months. he has me Royally wound up about next 24 months, Also watching Max Keiser now weekly, im normally such an optimistic person, Will have to try seek some balance!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭Tea drinker


    Max is always downbeat, but frequently correct. Celente has me thinking about building an underground bunker stocked with beans and saying my goodbyes to my loved ones ;-)
    A lot can change.... Trump is softening his stance, China also... we'll see if Russia gets forgiven at the next G7 / 8, Trump can invite him to USA.
    For ourselves we have issues around Brexit, the tech tax plus the elephant in the room, our debt. A lot is pointing to a recession but in reality we could be in recession for a year and not know it or it might not happen for a few years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭Voltex


    US/China is not going to be that big a deal. Rumour has it the Chinese are reaching out to make a deal - they need it more than the US does. Look at the Dow over the last few sessions - up about 600 points over the last week.

    The real trouble lurks in corporate bonds. US corporates have made a pig of themselves on cheap money over the last few years, but now some of them are in trouble. Look at the range of companies sitting in the BBB rating - GE, GM, Ford, AT&T...just above junk.

    US corporates have never been so highly leveraged as they are right now...in the region of 48% of US GDP.


  • Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Just came across the thread and remembered something in the UKSPA's Monthly Market Report for July 2018 -- it hasn't aged particularly badly.

    In fact, the comments about disinflation, or in the Eurozone, very low inflation and a risk of technical recession in countries like Germany, are more relevant than ever.

    https://www.ukspassociation.co.uk/assets//ukspa-newsletter-jul18.pdf
    What I do think is important is that a trade war will only hasten the inevitable - the next global downturn. We are, by common consent, late in the business cycle and any responsible investor - and adviser - must be wondering when we'll hit the 'wall'. I don't think a slow down is imminent but it must be, by definition, inevitable within the next few years.

    On this I note a fairly weighty recent note from an investment summit at Pimco. They observe, again rather complacently in my view, that "a U.S. recession is part of our baseline outlook for the next three to five years, and we would expect significant global economic and market spillovers in that event." An expression involving horse manure and Sherlock comes to mind. When that slowdown comes they surmise th at it will be a "shallower and longer" one - they call it a wok- or saucer-shaped, recession rather than a deeper but shorter V-shaped recession: Shallower, because there are so far no signs of corporate or housing overinvestment or overconsumption in the U.S. economy, and the global financial sector looks steadier than in the past few cycles. The main risk to this view is elevated levels of non-financial corporate leverage, which raises the risk of a major default cycle even in an initially shallow recession.

    Longer, because relatively low interest rates, bloated central bank balance sheets and (in the U.S.) larger fiscal deficits limit the policy space to fight a global recession. Moreover, given the widespread trend toward economic nationalism and protectionism, a recession could fuel trade deglobulisation and currency wars, thus shrinking the pie further. In addition, the next recession could be riskier than a standard post-war recession, for a few reasons
    :
    Inflation expectations are very low at the outset almost everywhere, the structural weaknesses in the eurozone could be exposed, and a recession would raise the risk of populism aimed at wealth redistribution and confiscation." To which I'd add that a trade war certainly won't help, especially if all those wok's cost a great deal more after the inevitable trade showdown with China!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 271 ✭✭lleti


    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/1011/1082492-central-bank-forecast/

    Central bank warns no deal brexit to bring recession early next year


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,703 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    lleti wrote:
    Central bank warns no deal brexit to bring recession early next year


    Could be true of course, and would make sense, with global production slowing also, the next round of belt tightening should be interesting, negative interest should help us grow out of it


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 271 ✭✭lleti


    The Fed in America have been making moves for a year now. We could be looking back in future and saying "that was the start of it".

    Fed raised interest rates a year ago and the stock market went down. The Fed then reversed this tightening and started to loosen the belt, lowering rates.

    This led to the stock market growing 25%. Now, the stock market, despite the Fed pulling these moves has ground to a halt. It's been flat for the last 6 months.

    Why?

    It can't just be China trade war.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,703 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    lleti wrote: »
    The Fed in America have been making moves for a year now. We could be looking back in future and saying "that was the start of it".

    Fed raised interest rates a year ago and the stock market went down. The Fed then reversed this tightening and started to loosen the belt, lowering rates.

    This led to the stock market growing 25%. Now, the stock market, despite the Fed pulling these moves has ground to a halt. It's been flat for the last 6 months.

    Why?

    It can't just be China trade war.

    i think its important to realise, we actually dont truly understand the workings of our global economic systems, they truly are a perfect example of 'complex dynamic systems', and theres no question, the interaction of institutions, both public and private, influence outputs greatly, both positively and negatively. i do think theres an element of truth, that the actions of central banks can and do negatively impact these outputs, but you will find, most economic commentators, including more conservative ones, will admit, trade wars are, well, pretty dump


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 271 ✭✭lleti


    Singapore’s economy — often seen as a bellwether for global growth — avoided a technical recession after growing by 0.6% in the July to September quarter compared to the previous three months.

    ...


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭theguzman


    https://www.dublinairport.com/latest-news/2019/12/11/dublin-airport-sees-passenger-numbers-decline-by-1-in-november

    Passengers numbers in Dublin Airport have recorded their first monthly drop in numbers in five years as the global financial criss accelerates around the globe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    theguzman wrote: »
    as the global financial criss accelerates around the globe.

    You're the first person I've heard calling this "slowdown" that. You think it will compare to the last?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭theguzman


    Zenify wrote: »
    You're the first person I've heard calling this "slowdown" that. You think it will compare to the last?

    It will make the last recession look like cakewalk, this country will be hit particularly bad all over again. I actually welcome it as it might make buying a house affordable unlike now.

    The current global financial system is so overloaded with debt that this crisis is inevitable and if it stays as a financial crisis we will be okay but there is a very real existential threat of it spilling into a war or wars, Gold is being hoarded at never before seen volumes and something very big is just around the corner.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭ Landon Famous Bakery


    Thanks for letting me know.

    I will contact the bank about a mortgage the second the crisis hits.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭theguzman


    Thanks for letting me know.

    I will contact the bank about a mortgage the second the crisis hits.

    I hope this is sarcasm, I would advise nobody to ever take a mortgage unless totally avoidable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 80,798 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn


    Tomorrow night will answer so many questions.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Tomorrow night will answer so many questions.

    In what way?


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