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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #92
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Could you produce a sounding for my location again please. (Just not on the immediate coast)

    Try 55.05N and -6.92W

    Closest I can get, 130 m amsl.

    538398.png


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    #93
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Neddyusa wrote: »

    Edit: Surprised to see no thread for this.
    Even though it looks to be small amounts - there's been 10 page threads running here for far less!

    Me too


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    #94
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Closest I can get, 130 m amsl.

    538398.png

    Thank you. Is there anywhere nearby that is sea level when the front arrives?


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    #95
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    You don’t want a polar low. It just warms the air and produces a lot of wind.

    Maybe not if you are near the coast, but over the years we've done well from Polar Lows. Although we tended to get proper Northerlies back then with a feed straight from the arctic.


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    #96
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    we've waited all winter for some decent upper cold to come in, well it's coming on Friday with -11c uppers over Dublin according to the GFS...... but it's looking dry for that particular timeframe in the east. Friday morning is actually looking interesting for falling snow at least, I'm surprised by the relative lack of talk about it here, there's some snow showers along the north and west coasts with a band of more organised snow sliding down the east coast.

    Friday morning precip
    12_45_preciptype.png

    Friday afternoon uppers
    12_51_ukthickness850.png


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    #97
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    the ECM unfortunately disagrees with the GFS in terms of precipitation, the showers in the north and west are more like wintry showers rather than snow and the band of snow along the east stays offshore. the AROME doesn't quite run out far enough for the north/west but it shows the band of snow grazing the east coast so better than the ECM. the ARPEGE keeps the north and west dry apart from the odd shower but it looks good for those in the east. the ICON just about keeps the Irish Sea snow offshore and looks dry for the north and west.


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    #98
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    https://twitter.com/LaoisWeather/status/1347166923512029184?s=19

    Seriously low temperatures on this!


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    #99
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Danno wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/LaoisWeather/status/1347166923512029184?s=19

    Seriously low temperatures on this!

    that's insane and totally plausible in my opinion considering how low temperatures got so early on last night, and now some places have the advantage of a small snow cover if that hangs around.


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    #100
    weatherfiend
    Registered Users Posts: 541 ✭✭✭weatherfiend


    Danno wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/LaoisWeather/status/1347166923512029184?s=19

    Seriously low temperatures on this!

    Are these ground temps 😀?


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    #101
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    weatherfiend wrote: »
    Are these ground temps ��?

    Air temperatures!


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    #102
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Temp In Dublin seems to have only reached a high of 1-2 degrees this afternoon, Baltic out there


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    #103
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,814 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Will see how much wintry precipitation clips the E and mostly the SE tomorrow.

    awkiOgN.gif

    anim_pfi6.gif

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    2388_fee6.png


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    #104
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,814 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looks like an extremely cold night Friday into Saturday.

    anim_vox5.gif


    8465_vng1.png


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    #105
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,814 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Plenty of rain in the Northern half of the country especially the W and NW over the next few days.

    Breezier then of late, bit windy on the coasts.

    Mild air spreading in from the SW /W. NE remaining cold.

    anim_nck9.gif


    anim_taf5.gif

    rCLvnBe.png

    anim_lap6.gif

    arpegeuk-41-37-0_fcz1.png

    arpegeuk-41-74-0_oww8.png


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    #106
    Donegal Ken
    Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    More than likely will see a status yellow rainfall warning issued for Tuesday for Northwestern counties.


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    #107
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    The Met Office says hill snow in Northern Ireland tonight, but soundings not looking too productive.


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    #108
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,442 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    This system will have to be watched for Tuesday/Wednesday. It's being shifted ever further south and has snow potential on the northern flank

    icon-0-93.png?15-18

    icon-2-87.png?15-18

    icon-1-90.png?15-18

    Some evolution to come here I suspect.


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    #109
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Nah, for me no. It's a sloppy returning airmass that we'll have at that stage. No direct cold source. Lower levels should be too modified to produce anything of note imo.


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    #110
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,814 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM stalling and pivoting the front with following cold airmass on Weds on the latest run. UKMO has the front clearing to the S quicker. GFS does not develop the stalling front like the ECM and has it well cleared later Tues into early Weds which is the outlier here would reckon. UKMO showing very cold night Tues into Weds but this would be under clear skies for that to take place. Would have to lead with the ECM. Finely balanced atm, a few days out a long time yet to know with any certainty.

    A lot of precipitation to fall between Mon and Thurs AM


    HM386FZ.gif

    6TxUOcI.gif

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    LBYp4wD.gif

    47jyMmQ.png


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    #111
    Neddyusa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    Fair play Meteorite, at least you are in the right thread!
    There's a lot of talk about this in the plus 120hr thread for some reason;)

    The trend seems to be bringing this system further south as we get closer to the time, so if that keeps up it might only graze the Waterford and Wexford coasts


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    #112
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,814 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Neddyusa wrote: »
    Fair play Meteorite, at least you are in the right thread!
    There's a lot of talk about this in the plus 120hr thread for some reason;)

    The trend seems to be bringing this system further south as we get closer to the time, so if that keeps up it might only graze the Waterford and Wexford coasts

    Ah its because it always seems so far away :pac:, this one is creeping up and intriguing but will it look anything like being shown on the current ECM run which is by far the biggest producer of snow. What will be the position of the front, will it stall as currently shown ??


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    #113
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I have a feeling the GFS scenario will be the correct one.


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    #114
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,814 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    nacho libre wrote: »
    I have a feeling the GFS scenario will be the correct one.

    Well the ECM is looking a lot more like the GFS this morning nacho libre, GFS wasn't such an outlier after all it would seem. Big adjustment showing just a bit of wintry precipitation, less precipitation also although still quite wet over Mon and Tues and now clearing away quicker to the SE on Weds. Will see how it plays out.


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    #115
    sicknotexi
    Registered Users Posts: 1,064 ✭✭✭sicknotexi


    All Wednesday's snow has disappeared on the ECM 00Z. Basically no snow for anyone out to 10 day.


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    #116
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    sicknotexi wrote: »
    All Wednesday's snow has disappeared on the ECM 00Z. Basically no snow for anyone out to 10 day.

    The 12z ECM has shifted It back north again. With the South East most likely to see some snow, even if it looks transient on this run. Clearly a lot of uncertainty still. Worth keeping any eye over the next few runs at least.

    539825.jpg


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    #117
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Reversal wrote: »
    The 12z ECM has shifted It back north again. With the South East most likely to see some snow, even if it looks transient on this run. Clearly a lot of uncertainty still. Worth keeping any eye over the next few runs at least.

    That would indicate high ground only, and I would agree.


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    #118
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,814 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yeah ECM now much slower to clear the SE than the other models, not huge cold following but pressure is low . Other models showing wintry mix now also. Looks like wet snow if it falls at this stage, mostly wet sleety mix would reckon but will see as we get closer what are the chances of some proper snow accumulations.

    Precipitation accumulations up again, warnings look likely.


    anim_ipd9.gif

    anim_srh8.gif

    arpegeuk-41-71-0_djc6.png

    ObdvMRq.gif

    2blDTqC.png

    anim_nne6.gif

    anim_bwk5.gif


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    #119
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,814 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Rough idea of rainfall accumulations.

    k30R1ZG.png

    4X8kfNr.png



    w9p7Ea1.png


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    #120
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,814 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Area of LP deepens over us and merges into other areas of LP and goes on to deepen down to about 958 hPa in the North Sea on Thurs and become very windy there for a time.

    szkRFNK.gif


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    #121
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,442 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    GFS starting to make a little more of the prospects through Leinster and Munster for some snow late afternoon/evening Wednesday.

    Be an interesting one to watch.

    72-574UK.GIF?17-18


This discussion has been closed.
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