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Where all the houses gone?

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    #32
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    I dunno what the op is looking for the whole supply thing has been talked to death on these forums.

    Seems like people think the supply and demand and problems within the construction industry don't apply to them.

    If you want to encourage action you don't tax the heck out it. The govt is primarily encouraging external investment. That is not aligned to the countries need.

    Remember this when the elections come around.


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    #33
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,066 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    The costs of building are high, yes, but not related to taxes:


    (1) very high cost of land - indeed, land taxes would help reduce the cost of sites


    (2) high cost of finance - even though the ECB rate is 0%, property developers are paying 5-6% for senior debt, much more for mezzanine finance


    (3) high profit margins, related to risk


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    #34
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Got ahead of myself...

    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/construction-accounts-for-less-than-half-the-cost-of-building-a-house-34728466.html


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    #35
    Mrs OBumble
    Registered Users Posts: 25,669 ✭✭✭✭Mrs OBumble


    what_traffic wrote: »
    Agree in established areas. How far West is the key? Established areas very little on offer - Availability in KnocknaCarra is pretty high though especially for 4 bed.

    Just remembered this comment.

    If the OP is looking for Galway west but not as west as Knockers, there's another factor to be aware of.

    In some parts of this area, houses which are sold aren't marketed publically. No signs. No advertising. Instead, agents handle things discretely, sounding out prospective purchasers who are acceptable to the rest of the estate.


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    #36
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,066 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    beauf wrote: »
    Got ahead of myself...

    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/construction-accounts-for-less-than-half-the-cost-of-building-a-house-34728466.html

    Yes, look at the high cost of finance 20k per house, should be maybe 5k.

    Profit margin of 38k per house, 10k would be enough.

    Site costs 57.5k, if we could get that down to 10k, that would make house cheaper.

    We could knock 70k off costs.


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    #37
    riclad
    Registered Users Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    builders in dublin are saying the profit on building a house is too small,
    if house is in the 250k range.
    maybe builders could get tax credits fro building in citys where there is high demand but sites are very expensive .
    by the way the government owns loads of land all around dublin.
    Builders in new north inner city development where the old flats will be knocked
    down will be getting the site for zero cost.
    how does one reduce site cost down to 10k, ?
    In dublin or other area.s


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    #38
    Kleine Hundin
    Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭Kleine Hundin


    I don't think an 11% margin is so bad for a company creating value. There is risk involved for the developer and I'm surprised it is set at that level and not higher.

    The finance cost at 6% is high in today's low interest environment with the ECB at 0%. Financing should be cheaper for property developers which is one of the recommendations "Providing a State-supported development bank to lower the cost of funding home construction. This could save €12,000 from the cost of constructing the average home"


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    #39
    Steer55
    Closed Accounts Posts: 226 ✭✭Steer55


    SozBbz wrote: »
    Not that I'm a seller or in your area, but if I was only thinking about selling my house, I wouldn't put it on now until the 3rd week in Jan at the earliest.

    I wouldnt expect to see much new to market between now and then. If by end of Feb nothing is stirring, then you're right.


    we live in an age of instant communication, apps and property updates if a property is in the right location, priced right, it will sell no matter the month its advertised.


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    #40
    what_traffic
    Registered Users Posts: 4,868 ✭✭✭what_traffic


    Mrs OBumble wrote: »
    In some parts of this area, houses which are sold aren't marketed publically. No signs. No advertising. Instead, agents handle things discretely, sounding out prospective purchasers who are acceptable to the rest of the estate.

    How much we talking about for this extra special service?


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    #41
    Mrs OBumble
    Registered Users Posts: 25,669 ✭✭✭✭Mrs OBumble


    what_traffic wrote: »
    How much we talking about for this extra special service?

    No idea. As a blow-in, I'm unlikely to be introduced to the agents who do this. And I don't own a property to sell.


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    #42
    what_traffic
    Registered Users Posts: 4,868 ✭✭✭what_traffic


    Mrs OBumble wrote: »
    If the OP is looking for Galway west but not as west as Knockers, there's another factor to be aware of.

    In some parts of this area, houses which are sold aren't marketed publically. No signs. No advertising. Instead, agents handle things discretely, sounding out prospective purchasers who are acceptable to the rest of the estate.

    Whats your source then for the above? or did you work for one of the Galway City Auctioneers in the past?


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    #43
    fago
    Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭fago


    Mrs OBumble wrote: »
    No idea. As a blow-in, I'm unlikely to be introduced to the agents who do this. And I don't own a property to sell.

    As someone who was actively looking, I'm not sure this really holds water.
    Unless its such a top secret service that the properties don't even end up on the property price register.

    I've viewed 4-5 beds in the west of city, but almost everything in Salthill will be in the fixer upper category, and 400K plus. There's been plenty of withdrawals/didn't make AMV at the ODJ auction over the last 6 months in the same category.


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    #44
    kala85
    Registered Users Posts: 1,881 ✭✭✭kala85


    fago wrote: »
    As someone who was actively looking, I'm not sure this really holds water.
    Unless its such a top secret service that the properties don't even end up on the property price register.

    I've viewed 4-5 beds in the west of city, but almost everything in Salthill will be in the fixer upper category, and 400K plus. There's been plenty of withdrawals/didn't make AMV at the ODJ auction over the last 6 months in the same category.

    Is this a sign that the market is slowing down or that people have reached a ceiling in what they can afford.


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    #45
    SozBbz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    Steer55 wrote: »
    we live in an age of instant communication, apps and property updates if a property is in the right location, priced right, it will sell no matter the month its advertised.

    I don't agree. At least you'd be limiting your market.

    People are preoccupied with Christmas from November onwards, then feel poor in January as its typically 5/6 weeks since they've last been paid they have spent heavily in December.

    Also, have you looked outside? The weather is non stop miserable, the evenings are closing in and everything is just grey and damp. If you want to do evening viewings, they're going to be in the dark.

    So you've a smaller pool of buyers and your house won't look its best. You might be able to get a buyer, but are you maximising your sale price by selling in the middle of winter? Doubt it.

    Things are the way they are for a reason and technology doesnt overcome what I've outlined above.


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    #46
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,283 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    Kleine Hundin wrote: »
    I don't think an 11% margin is so bad for a company creating value. There is risk involved for the developer and I'm surprised it is set at that level and not higher.

    The finance cost at 6% is high in today's low interest environment with the ECB at 0%. Financing should be cheaper for property developers which is one of the recommendations "Providing a State-supported development bank to lower the cost of funding home construction. This could save €12,000 from the cost of constructing the average home"

    Just expidite reposessions, germanys rates average 2.3% on mortgages , its the inability of a bank to reposess defaulted properties has caused our high rates and nothing else


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    #47
    Mrs OBumble
    Registered Users Posts: 25,669 ✭✭✭✭Mrs OBumble


    what_traffic wrote: »
    Whats your source then for the above? or did you work for one of the Galway City Auctioneers in the past?

    I've been told by locals that's the way they do things: Infrequent sales to people intending to stay long term.

    And I've seen an agent advertise the service once.


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    #48
    Kleine Hundin
    Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭Kleine Hundin


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    Just expidite reposessions, germanys rates average 2.3% on mortgages , its the inability of a bank to reposess defaulted properties has caused our high rates and nothing else

    With the right conditions you can get 0.5% fixed for ten years in Germany. LTV of about 70% and buying in one of the big cities in Germany. any house that comes on the market is rare and do uppers or luxury villas. The market is mostly are apartments. Unless you move further out but commuting is doable and more comfortable than the Dublin region

    The lower interest just puts up prices as it's all about the repayment and borrow more.

    I've seen houses in Ireland taken by the banks and left empty for years which just further devalues the house as it gets neglected or vandalised.


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    #49
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    SozBbz wrote: »
    I don't agree. At least you'd be limiting your market.

    People are preoccupied with Christmas from November onwards, then feel poor in January as its typically 5/6 weeks since they've last been paid they have spent heavily in December.

    Also, have you looked outside? The weather is non stop miserable, the evenings are closing in and everything is just grey and damp. If you want to do evening viewings, they're going to be in the dark.

    So you've a smaller pool of buyers and your house won't look its best. You might be able to get a buyer, but are you maximising your sale price by selling in the middle of winter? Doubt it.

    Things are the way they are for a reason and technology doesnt overcome what I've outlined above.

    I disagree with this.

    As FTB we have viewings arranged the first two weeks in December, and plan to view right up to Christmas.

    A 6 week payday gap in Jan will have zero impact on our mentality of buying a house ? Why would it? We are mortgage ready etc.

    Have friends in a similar scenario, multiple couples, all still actively looking every weekend.


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    #50
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    riclad wrote: »
    builders in dublin are saying the profit on building a house is too small,
    if house is in the 250k range.
    maybe builders could get tax credits fro building in citys where there is high demand but sites are very expensive .

    Ignore that rubbish, of course they're gonna say the profit is too small. Pre-crash, they were raking it in and started cutting corners to complete builds and move on to the next big project. Then priory Hall happened, and all of a sudden the new regs came in, which meant they had to pay people to sign off on plans and builds (which they used to sign off on themseleve). Now, this 'extra expense' was eating into their bottom line.

    Of course, If you compare profits from now to 2007 it looks bad. That's because the cowboys who were signing off on everything weren't been held accountable, so didn't give a rats ass.

    I mean, take a look at the Home Bond scheme and what happened with pyrite. This is mandatory insurance which is factored into the cost of a new build in case anything goes wrong. Quarries were selling stone blocks and cement that was not tested if it was fit for purpose, due to pressure from the builders, so essentially everything built in Meath, Kildare and North Dublin within a certain time frame is a ticking time bomb.

    What did the Home Bond crowd do?....... Refuse to cover it.

    If I'm not mistaken, it is STILL mandatory to pay it today.


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    #51
    what_traffic
    Registered Users Posts: 4,868 ✭✭✭what_traffic


    Mrs OBumble wrote: »
    I've been told by locals that's the way they do things: Infrequent sales to people intending to stay long term.
    Dúirt bean liom go ndúirt bean léi!


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    #52
    Mrs OBumble
    Registered Users Posts: 25,669 ✭✭✭✭Mrs OBumble


    what_traffic wrote: »
    Dúirt bean liom go ndúirt bean léi!

    I thought that too - until I saw the service advertised in the newspaper.


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    #53
    Coco86
    Registered Users Posts: 6 ✭Coco86


    Mrs OBumble wrote: »
    I thought that too - until I saw the service advertised in the newspaper.

    Who was advertising the service and was it recently?


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    #54
    Xterminator
    Registered Users Posts: 4,717 ✭✭✭Xterminator


    Er do some of the poster here not understand the term 'net migration'?

    EG you subtract the number of people who emigrate from ireland/return home from the no of people who arrive to get the correct figure. Its actually on the graph you have posted!

    Feed the trolls ...


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    #55
    Xterminator
    Registered Users Posts: 4,717 ✭✭✭Xterminator


    And isn't it very ironic to hear irish people complain about migration. i think a quick look in a history book wouldn't go astray either! there are approx 3 million Irish passport holders living abroad, from a country with a population of 4.9 million .... let that sink in.

    I mean if there was one country in europe that should understand the challenges migrants face it would be this one.


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