Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

14243454748120

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I'm not convinced that what we are seeing now are effects from the major SSW itself as that only happened first week of January. However there were a series of small to moderate warmings through December and those could be having some affect. The warming is still going on so there are opportunities for bigger effects and hopefully more favourable alignments developing over the next few weeks.

    I reckon the charts are showing SSW effects, as nacho said, you'd generally need a SSW to get such a reverse flow. these charts are roughly 20 days after the SSW, so that's a reasonable period of time for downwelling to occur. also, correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the 2009 SSW have an (almost) instant response?


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I'm not convinced that what we are seeing now are effects from the major SSW itself as that only happened first week of January. However there were a series of small to moderate warmings through December and those could be having some affect. The warming is still going on so there are opportunities for bigger effects and hopefully more favourable alignments developing over the next few weeks.

    The moderate warmings would not induce this response we are currently seeing in the troposphere, the effects of an ssw can take anything from 10 to 20 days, so it's not that unusual for a response time of 10 days or so. You maybe right that the brief split and further warmings may cause the Vortex to stay weak, or in the optimum outcome; be obilterated. However be careful what you wish for as we may end up with spring being delayed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,355 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Flooding Tuesday-Wednesday to heavy snow for many parts of Ireland on Wednesday PM/Thursday on latest ECMWF run!

    Very wet snow but some places would get plastered.

    Name checks out :)

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Danno wrote: »
    Johanna Donnelly mentioned hill snow and sleet for Wednesday as the polar front stalls and moves south.

    Where?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Where?

    She didn't mention locations but if you were to go by her graphics, Upland Down and Louth Counties and presumably upland Kilkenny, Laois, Offaly, Wicklow, Dublin, Carlow and Wexford too.


  • Advertisement
  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Danno wrote: »
    She didn't mention locations but if you were to go by her graphics, Upland Down and Louth Counties and presumably upland Kilkenny, Laois, Offaly, Wicklow, Dublin, Carlow and Wexford too.

    Would it not cross my area first?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    539731.png

    Widespread lying snow for at least half the island come Thursday morning at 6am according to the current ECM. :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 613 ✭✭✭Snowc


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Would it not cross my area first?

    No or Johanna would have said it


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Snowc wrote: »
    No or Johanna would have said it

    Well, that's not what the charts show. And very few people here watch the RTE weather forecast so they will barely mention us.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    the tracking of that on Wednesday night will be very important. GFS 18z has it further east and missing most of Ireland, flirts with the south-east and gives a possible dumping of snow to much of England and Wales.

    96-574UK.GIF?16-18

    108-574UK.GIF?16-18


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 397 ✭✭Reversal


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Well, that's not what the charts show. And very few people here watch the RTE weather forecast so they will barely mention us.

    Well it is what the ECM shows. System running from SW to NE with snow developing on the northern/western flank. This evenings ECM shows precip effecting mainly SE of a line from Kerry to your location. However the surface flow is northerly throughout. Onshore winds will keep it as rain for much of northern Ulster. That's just this evenings ECM but that's what the Met Eireann will be going off.

    The positioning could move quite a bit before Wednesday. That being said winds are always going to be northerly on the cold side of this system, the marine layer will prevent snow along the North coast this time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    I reckon the charts are showing SSW effects, as nacho said, you'd generally need a SSW to get such a reverse flow. these charts are roughly 20 days after the SSW, so that's a reasonable period of time for downwelling to occur. also, correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the 2009 SSW have an (almost) instant response?
    The moderate warmings would not induce this response we are currently seeing in the troposphere, the effects of an ssw can take anything from 10 to 20 days, so it's not that unusual for a response time of 10 days or so. You maybe right that the brief split and further warmings may cause the Vortex to stay weak, or in the optimum outcome; be obilterated. However be careful what you wish for as we may end up with spring being delayed.

    So far there has not been the complete downwelling of the SSW effects and what we're seeing seems to be some seasonal toing and froing between progessive and retrogressive patterns. It remains to be seen how things will progress.

    539735.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    tonights GFS 18z for what it's worth is beginning to show alot of cold over us or very close to us at the very end of many of it's runs, mostly northerlies but some easterly action as well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Would it not cross my area first?

    Unfortunately not when reading the current chart guidance, which I'm sure Met Eireann and UKMO are certainly glued to at this stage.

    Land fetch under a cold north-westerly with marginal conditions seem to scupper your chances giving your location. However, there is also the possibility of model upgrades giving this event is still days off. But right now it looks like a bust for most of this island barring locations above 150m and towards the East, northeast and southeast. :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The GFS Parallel and the old GFS, after a milder few days, are showing a good northerly towards the end of January. What could possibly go wrong!
    There is also a chance that the lobe of vortex may move from Asia to Canada later in the month
    So perhaps we could be looking to the east at some stage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Unfortunately we could be looking as far as February for a chance of any real bitter cold now. Just a cold very wet, windy miserable mess for this week. Maybe high ground might see some fun but from what we hoped lights years off.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    bazlers wrote: »
    Unfortunately we could be looking as far as February for a chance of any real bitter cold now. Just a cold very wet, windy miserable mess for this week. Maybe high ground might see some fun but from what we hoped lights years off.

    Disappointment after disappointment lately and it always seems to be the morning 0z models that strike a cruel blow. Getting tired of this model watching at this stage. No luck whatsoever.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Don't know why people bother with the gfs parallel
    Useless model
    The 00z ecm is another inching south of the pattern
    Not long now I'd say before Joe Bastardi's comment of look out below becomes look out around you
    Its the 17th of January btw
    Not the 17th of March


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    Don't know why people bother with the gfs parallel
    Useless model
    The 00z ecm is another inching south of the pattern
    Not long now I'd say before Joe Bastardi's comment of look out below becomes look out around you
    Its the 17th of January btw
    Not the 17th of March

    Are you sure about the para? I thought so too, but have read out to day 5 it is second only to the ECM recently. If it is in fact useless surely they will scrap it replacing the old GFS in mid February.
    Regarding M.T Cranium's old friend Joe, i would love to know his thinking behind this idea.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    bazlers wrote: »
    Unfortunately we could be looking as far as February for a chance of any real bitter cold now. Just a cold very wet, windy miserable mess for this week. Maybe high ground might see some fun but from what we hoped lights years off.


    I've been saying that for the last couplle of weeks . Forget second half of January!!!!!!!
    Roll on February...........


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Billcarson wrote: »
    I've been saying that for the last couplle of weeks . Forget second half of January!!!!!!!
    Roll on February...........

    Have you been programming the CFS model?

    You could well be right. We may get transient snowfall before then, but no deep cold spell is going to happen before February. If anything we may have to endure several days of milder south westerlies to see January out. It has been most frustrating so far that we have replaced one villian( the Russian High) only for another the Iberian High to take its place. Hopefully our luck will change in February!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Have you been programming the CFS model?

    You could well be right. We may get transient snowfall before then, but no deep cold spell is going to happen before February. If anything we may have to endure several days of milder south westerlies to see January out. It has been most frustrating so far that we have replaced one villian( the Russian High) only for another the Iberian High to take its place. Hopefully our luck will change in February!

    Another part of winter that should be identified as giving no proper cold spells for many years is middle third of feb. For example I dont think there are many examples of bitterly cold and snowy valentine's days in years.
    So if the cold comes in feb I think it will most likely be either the first week of the month or the last week of the month. I'd go for the first week of the month.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Billcarson wrote: »
    Another part of winter that should be identified as giving no proper cold spells for many years is middle third of feb. For example I dont think there are many examples of bitterly cold and snowy valentine's days in years.
    So if the cold comes in feb I think it will most likely be either the first week of the month or the last week of the month. I'd go for the first week of the month.

    The CFS up till now has been consistently showing a blocking signal taking hold sometime in February. Of course this model is not to be taken too seriously, but it does get it right on occasion, such as the last cold spell. It goes on to show a very cold start to March and beyond.
    If that happens mother nature is definitely trolling us.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    The CFS up till now has been consistently showing a blocking signal taking hold sometime in February. Of course this model is not to be taken too seriously, but it does get it right on occasion, such as the last cold spell. It goes on to show a very cold start to March and beyond.
    If that happens mother nature is definitely trolling us.

    Snow can stick around in March if it is deep enough and the nights are >-5c


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    i am trying to post here about t 120 but why is boards.ie loading like its 1996,i have tried various browsers,all the same


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Snow can stick around in March if it is deep enough and the nights are >-5c

    It can, but it will melt a bit during the day even with temperature at freezing or just below. We saw this back in March 2018. This is why a freeze before mid February would be preferable if it's going to happen at all.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Hmm when I was in east Anglia the snow stayed around and did not melt.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Hmm when I was in east Anglia the snow stayed around and did not melt.

    I had snow on the farm here in March 2018 for over 3 weeks ,it never cleared
    Thats a north easterly for you
    Storm Emma's drifts were 10ft high
    More blizzards on the 18th
    I'm sure similar might evolve if the inching south of the current pattern continues


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Are you sure about the para? I thought so too, but have read out to day 5 it is second only to the ECM recently. If it is in fact useless surely they will scrap it replacing the old GFS in mid February.
    Regarding M.T Cranium's old friend Joe, i would love to know his thinking behind this idea.

    Too many times FI snowfests were on it that never verify is why I don't bother with it
    We've basically had a Portugal bartlet for near a month now,my guess is that will retreat back to the azores before the pv is repaired
    Ergo I'd expect the easterlies to drop another few hundred miles to where the 2018 ones were
    At the rate of inching that does look like early February now but possibly sooner I'd expect
    Hopefully not Easter:eek:


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    There was very little if any thaw in Dublin and the east for a number of days in 2018. It stuck around quite a long time from memory, it snowed relentlessly

    quote="nacho libre;115947924"]It can, but it will melt a bit during the day even with temperature at freezing or just below. We saw this back in March 2018. This is why a freeze before mid February would be preferable if it's going to happen at all.[/quote]


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement