Winter 2020-2021 - The search for the first Snowfall

Gonzo · 02-11-2020 3:57pm

November is now looking increasingly mild, the idea of northern blocking that was being hinted at a few days ago has reduced alot and mild southerlies or south-westerlies could impact us for much of November.

pauldry · 02-11-2020 6:03pm

Thank God. It's only 6c and lashing rain today. Could do with some milder weather

Slashermcguirk · 02-11-2020 7:33pm

we will get snow in December. Winter 2000 was snowy, winter 2010 was really snowy and 2020 will deliver. Also level 5 restrictions will lift in early December and you just know the moment lockdown is lifted and we can all get out and about again, the snow will arrive. There is something about 2020 even from a weather perspective, warmest and driest spring i can remember, followed by a wet summer when lockdown lifted. Since Summer ended, September and October were very pleasant. I have a feeling we will get some good snow in December.

pauldry · 02-11-2020 9:40pm

Looking at what's expected from a vague aspect for November

Wet til Wednesday
Dry and cool till about 7th
Mild with a little rain until about 15th
Slightly cooler and more unsettled until 25th
Then FI has very cold

But FI will probably be FI

Larbre34 · 02-11-2020 9:41pm

pauldry wrote: »

Thank God. It's only 6c and lashing rain today. Could do with some milder weather

I disagree, mild equates with wet this time of year, the land could do with some time to dry out, especially the western half of the island.

nacho libre · 03-11-2020 12:07pm

The GFS is not without interest again, but there is not much support for it. It's more likely in that Set up we'd end up with stalled systems over us, than the block far enough west to bring in our friend from the east.

Kamili · 03-11-2020 3:00pm

Ah the GFS cold Bias rears again

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/#:~:text=This%20%E2%80%9Ccold%20bias%E2%80%9D%20means%20that,British%20and%20European%20weather%20agencies.&text=The%20existing%20NWS%20forecast%20model,accuracy%20to%20the%20European%20models.

THE GOVERNMENT’S NEW weather forecast model has a slight problem: It predicts that outside temperatures will be a few degrees colder than what nature delivers. This “cold bias” means that local meteorologists are abandoning the National Weather Service in favor of forecasts produced by British and European weather agencies.

For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.”

esposito · 03-11-2020 7:01pm

Kamili wrote: »

Ah the GFS cold Bias rears again

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/#:~:text=This%20%E2%80%9Ccold%20bias%E2%80%9D%20means%20that,British%20and%20European%20weather%20agencies.&text=The%20existing%20NWS%20forecast%20model,accuracy%20to%20the%20European%20models.

Is it that hard to fix the GFS to remove the cold bias? This was supposed to be the new and improved GFS. My a*se

BLIZZARD7 · 03-11-2020 7:41pm

Gonzo wrote: »

November is now looking increasingly mild, the idea of northern blocking that was being hinted at a few days ago has reduced alot and mild southerlies or south-westerlies could impact us for much of November.

I don't think we will have any extended period of warmth, probably some WAA southerlies briefly but I think a more settled easterly quadrant flow will establish by around mid month, the models are today leaning back towards a colder solution in the extended range... but who knows, might be back to a euro high tomorrow, such is the nature of FI.

A sceuro high as an in between solution is definitely a possibility, Greeny heights seem to have disappeared for now but Scandi/Svalbard heights look a distinct possibility looking at the GFS/UKMO/ECM.

SeaBreezes · 04-11-2020 10:26am

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

2010 down here in Cork City wasn't very snowy, made a small snowman but nothing like 2018 but was the first year our water froze and it was bitterly cold, always remember the de-icer refreezing on the trip to school! I was only 10 at the time though.. so maybe don't remember fully but definitely wasn't very snowy

I would also prefer a 2018 repeat over the 2010!

Yeah, I remember. Weeks of cold, frozen pipes, icy roads, wistfully looking at the rest of Ireland in snowscapes, and Cork snow shield holding stubbornly.

We eventually got some snow after xmas, but it wasn't the snow fest 2018 brought us, just a light covering.

Slashermcguirk · 04-11-2020 9:22pm

Both 2010 and 2018 were phenomenal snow events in Dublin. November and December 2010 was remarkable in that it was such sustained cold for nearly 6 weeks. I measured nearly 40cm in the garden on Christmas Day. I think the max temp on Christmas Day afternoon was around -4.

2018 was huge volumes of snow over a shorter period of time but the cold wasn’t as sustained and temps didn’t go as low.

Both hugely memorable though

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Yeah, I remember. Weeks of cold, frozen pipes, icy roads, wistfully looking at the rest of Ireland in snowscapes, and Cork snow shield holding stubbornly.

We eventually got some snow after xmas, but it wasn't the snow fest 2018 brought us, just a light covering.

giveitholly · 08-11-2020 10:42pm

I presume this thread is dead in the water

sryanbruen · 08-11-2020 11:41pm

giveitholly wrote: »

I presume this thread is dead in the water

Indeed, not a chance in foreseeable future. Looks all bog standard November stuff.

PokeHerKing · 09-11-2020 10:32am

giveitholly wrote: »

I presume this thread is dead in the water

9 out of 10 years it is. Give or take.

pauldry · 09-11-2020 11:30am

A lot of forecasting (long range) are showing milder than normal right up to the end of December. I know its not worth a fig but nobody would be shocked if it occurs.

Maybe the best chance of colder weather is 2021 later in the Winter.

Gonzo · 09-11-2020 12:31pm

pauldry wrote: »

A lot of forecasting (long range) are showing milder than normal right up to the end of December. I know its not worth a fig but nobody would be shocked if it occurs.

Maybe the best chance of colder weather is 2021 later in the Winter.

knowing our luck maybe teh 3rd or 4th week of March 2021. Overall yes looks particularly mild on the extended range right up to the end of December. November is a complete write off for anyone who wants a cold end to Autumn. Of course a lot can change between now and Christmas but usually for us it doesn't.

Oneiric 3 · 09-11-2020 2:10pm

Gonzo wrote: »

knowing our luck maybe teh 3rd or 4th week of March 2021. Overall yes looks particularly mild on the extended range right up to the end of December. November is a complete write off for anyone who wants a cold end to Autumn. Of course a lot can change between now and Christmas but usually for us it doesn't.

I'm getting to a stage now where cold for the sake of being cold doesn't excite me as it might have done when younger. If it is to be cold, then let it be a cold worth getting thrilled about, like -10c or below, with 10 foot of snow. Otherwise, the usual, just below average, but deeply unpleasant and penetrating wet chill that we get 50% of the time during the winter and early spring months get feck right off.

nacho libre · 09-11-2020 2:30pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I'm getting to a stage now where cold for the sake of being cold doesn't excite me as it might have done when younger. If it is to be cold, then let it be a cold worth getting thrilled about, like -10c or below, with 10 foot of snow. Otherwise, the usual, just below average, but deeply unpleasant and penetrating wet chill that we get 50% of the time during the winter and early spring months get feck right off.

Yes, sleet and cold rain does not cut the mustard for me either. Something like December 2000 during Christmas week would do nicely. We are well overdue something like this during the winter months.

M.T. Cranium · 10-11-2020 8:23am

Could revive as "chance of colder weather from mid-February?"

SeaBreezes · 12-11-2020 8:44pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Could revive as "chance of colder weather from mid-February?"

Ah now MT i got all excited when I saw you were the most recent update, thinking oooh maybe?

Nope. Situation normal. Sigh.
Feb it is.

M.T. Cranium · 12-11-2020 11:15pm

I just posted something interesting on Net-weather where the top 23 November CET values were then analyzed for winter values to follow.

Basically what I found was that the mild signal was almost gone from the averages by December and entirely absent by Jan-Feb. That means a random distribution of mild, average and cold months will follow the mildest 10% of Novembers. In fact, November 1946 was tied 24th warmest. There were two milder than 1946 (1822, 1939) that were followed by a sub-zero January. And most of the really mild winters were not preceded by a mild January (2015-16 an exception).

There's no need to write off winter based on this November. But it does add some further weight to the back-loaded winter scenario.

Danno · 12-11-2020 11:26pm

It's 2020 - we can't rule out a mega-volcano popping somewhere and giving us a harsh winter.

Larbre34 · 13-11-2020 12:40am

Danno wrote: »

It's 2020 - we can't rule out a mega-volcano popping somewhere and giving us a harsh winter.

Or that they all go off together.

Graces7 · 13-11-2020 7:57am

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

2010 was the guy falling on ice one, but very snowy in most parts of the country.

I was up in the Blue Stacks in Donegal. Well and truly snowed in for 6 weeks. Water frozen so melted snow to drink.... I had the two dogs then and they had a ball tunnelling in the snow.

Utterly beautiful but impractical as Ireland is just not equipped for such weather. One of the local priests was going about on skis. but unless you had a 4 wheel drive or good neighbours. ? Many old folk got stranded and there were cases of hypothermia.

Up there they did not deal with the roads which were literally three inches thick with solid ice.

We were saved by a local boardsie! Supplies of food and fuel... ( wonder if he is still around? )

In Orkney we had snow every year and we were equipped for it. As a farming community.. My Home Help arrived with supplies by tractor. One year the lorry with the snowplough attachment got stuck and had to be pulled out by a tractor. I was too far away to hear the language thankfully :eek:

But there was never the chaos we saw here, as it was normal.

Here I am well stocked for every eventuality; and have good neighbours.

You have to be ready for these events well in advance. Orkney and then Donegal taught me that with their opposites.

So be very careful what you wish for and be aware of the probable dangers!

pauldry · 13-11-2020 11:42am

Nice GFS chart initializing so far with us on colder side of normal coming to the end of month. Thats it jinxed.

sryanbruen · 13-11-2020 1:37pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Indeed, not a chance in foreseeable future. Looks all bog standard November stuff.

Haven't looked at model runs besides glances at model threads but looks to me that there's an increasing chance of likelihood on mid-Atlantic ridging getting going in late November or at least the Euro high retrogressing to our west allowing heights to lower over Scandinavia. This is more indicative of what La Niña Novembers are characterised by as compared to what we've seen this November to now.

The La Niña signature has been overriden thus far by tropical convection and global patterns. It doesn't look to be a classic by any means and should not be garnered comparisons to late 2010 or even late 2017 but higher chance nevertheless of some cold snaps rather than full on Euro high, Icelandic low and mild, cloudy damp conditions.

As ever with weather, we'll see it through and see how she goes.

Cluedo Monopoly · 13-11-2020 1:56pm

I always like to see snow on the peaks (600m+) first. Always gives me hope of a cold spell.
I don't know about the rest of you but I've seen no white summits as yet.

pauldry · 13-11-2020 3:41pm

Cant even see the mountains due to cloud

BruceK0508 · 13-11-2020 5:11pm

My climacell app says there is no chance of the temperatures dipping before the beginning of January. It seems it will stay cloudy throughout the winter.

Pangea · 14-11-2020 8:27am

BBC forecast said much cooler by next weekend showing a northerly cool plume of air coming down

Winter 2020-2021 - The search for the first Snowfall

Comments