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US Presidential Election 2020

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Comments

  • #3062
    Lex Luthor
    Registered Users Posts: 11,220 ✭✭✭✭Lex Luthor


    Not only have I voted here that Sanders will win the Dems vote, but imo he's going to be in the hot seat this time next year

    Cant understand why his odds are only 14/1 :cool:


  • #3063
    Gbear
    Registered Users Posts: 12,775 ✭✭✭✭Gbear


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    The Neocons like Kristol and Frum have been rehabilitated by the Dem mainstream which is dismal when you consider how little contrition they have shown for the Iraq war which they endorsed and how they set the environment for someone like Trump to emerge. Kristol endorsed Palin lets not forget.

    I recall a republican member of congress Walter Jones who supported the Iraq war initially and heck renamed freedom fries french fries he was so into it.

    However in the last decade or so he wrote over 12,000 letters to Gold Star families, he from all accounts was haunted by his role in it and the high body count and worked with the dems constantly when it came to veterans etc.

    When he died last year the likes of Barbara Lee and Justin Amash wrote touching tributes to him two of the better people in congress when it comes to overseas interventionism.

    He loathed Trump and opposed Trump's tax cuts for genuine conservative reasons " lets not burden our grand kids with debt" while others like Romney loved those horror cuts.

    Depressingly Bill Kristol and other GOP powerhouses tried to force him out the party but thankfully failed.

    It would be nice for some sort of similar contrition from the likes of Kristol, Frum, Boot who seem oblivious to their role in what was one of America's biggest mistakes of the last 50 years.

    I have seen people here lionise the above due to the fact they say mean things about Trump and its pretty ****ing depressing as these people are supposedly lefties.

    Something lost that's probably underrated in the lopsided FPTP voting system is the voice of genuine conservatives acting in good faith being drowned out by the loonies.

    I oppose conservatism in its core concept, but having a cautious voice in politics that urges restraint on progression is an important check and keeps progressives honest.

    It's all but extinct in the US and probably in the UK (although you saw it during the last few years with sane Tories supporting the rule of law and opposing the railroading of parliament by the government).


  • #3064
    Foxtrol
    Registered Users Posts: 11,006 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Lex Luthor wrote: »
    Not only have I voted here that Sanders will win the Dems vote, but imo he's going to be in the hot seat this time next year

    Cant understand why his odds are only 14/1 :cool:

    Well this time last week it was widely believed Bernie could have an insurmountable lead in delegates after Super Tuesday and instead here we are with him behind by nearly 100 and looking like he will lose big in several upcoming states.

    I saw Bernie on a few Sunday shows today peddling his usual 'establishment' conspiracy nonsense. It doesn't cross his mind that a person could choose to withdraw from a race when they don't see a path to victory, while understanding their withdrawal could help defeat someone they don't want to win. As usual, it is always someone else's fault.


  • #3065
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,002 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Gbear wrote: »
    Something lost that's probably underrated in the lopsided FPTP voting system is the voice of genuine conservatives acting in good faith being drowned out by the loonies.

    I oppose conservatism in its core concept, but having a cautious voice in politics that urges restraint on progression is an important check and keeps progressives honest.

    It's all but extinct in the US and probably in the UK (although you saw it during the last few years with sane Tories supporting the rule of law and opposing the railroading of parliament by the government).

    Agreed.

    If Biden wins in November and its likely, its going to be interesting to see what happens the party. Some like the neocons think Trump was just a one off and it will be back to the "good old days" of the market been God and overseas "exceptionalism",,,with someone like Nikki Hailey, Crenshaw as the leaders of this.


    I am skeptical of that idea as think the party will lean towards those who embrace Trumpism mainly someone like Josh Hawley or even Carlson.

    Those guys however could even be worse than Trump, they will be articulate but and have a clear agenda and won't get sidetracked by petty feuds like Trump.


  • #3066
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,535 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    I am skeptical of that idea as think the party will lean towards those who embrace Trumpism mainly someone like Josh Hawley or even Carlson.

    Those guys however could even be worse than Trump, they will be articulate but and have a clear agenda and won't get sidetracked by petty feuds like Trump.

    If Trumpism is a truly popular doctrine then Roy Moore would have won his electoral contest in 2018 and not failed to even win his primary this year. He was someone who was backed by the man himself, and if there's one thing we know about Trumpism, it's that a 'little thing' like sexual misconduct is not supposed to get in the way.

    In fact, there should be Trump acolytes getting voted in all over the place. Is this happening?


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  • #3067
    Gbear
    Registered Users Posts: 12,775 ✭✭✭✭Gbear


    briany wrote: »
    If Trumpism is a truly popular doctrine then Roy Moore would have won his electoral contest in 2018 and not failed to even win his primary this year. He was someone who was backed by the man himself, and if there's one thing we know about Trumpism, it's that a 'little thing' like sexual misconduct is not supposed to get in the way.

    In fact, there should be Trump acolytes getting voted in all over the place. Is this happening?

    I suppose the thing about Trumpism is that Trump himself probably wouldn't have won the Republican primary if there had been ranked choice voting.

    Republicans really don't actually like him, in the sense that if they had a republican alternative, they'd probably take it in a heartbeat.

    There's a small subset of incels, nazis and other degenerates who genuinely support him because he's a scumbag, but the rest of the Republicans - the Christian fundamentalists, the pro-business crowd, etc, probably think he's a scumbag (and that's in their case that's not a positive). What it says about them that they'd still vote for him regardless is another discussion, but I think his "popularity" has to be held in the proper context.

    The way they vote in candidates might tend to make Trump-like candidates more likely, but I don't think that means that a Trump-like candidate is the most likely next leader of the Republican party.


  • #3068
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,535 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Gbear wrote: »

    The way they vote in candidates might tend to make Trump-like candidates more likely, but I don't think that means that a Trump-like candidate is the most likely next leader of the Republican party.

    Trump isn't just some guy who says to build the wall. That's one element, but he's also built up a brand and presence by being in and around popular culture for basically forever. That's not to mention his ability to use Twitter and his relentless energy for someone over 70, holding countless rallies and all that, and never letting go of any spat, not matter how small. He may be the most negative and divisive POTUS in modern times, but he's also pretty unique is my feeling.


  • #3069
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    briany wrote: »
    If Trumpism is a truly popular doctrine then Roy Moore would have won his electoral contest in 2018 and not failed to even win his primary this year. He was someone who was backed by the man himself, and if there's one thing we know about Trumpism, it's that a 'little thing' like sexual misconduct is not supposed to get in the way.

    In fact, there should be Trump acolytes getting voted in all over the place. Is this happening?

    Trump is the cult of personality and you can't divorce personality from his appeal. Mike Pence could not do what he does. Ivanka Trump could though and that's why she's very dangerous in the long run.

    There are very few like Trump in terms of sheer brass neck. However it's notable that Boris Johnson, Farage, Arron Banks, Bolsonaro, Duterte, Salvini etc. do have quite similar personality types to him and that drives their popularity. Michael Healy Rae can do it in a much more localised Irish context.

    In Russia and the former communist countries I think the personality type needed to carry off a clampdown on freedoms is a lot different because of historical context. Having the appearance of being a dull, grey suit is actually an asset there. But all the same propaganda techniques are used.


  • #3070
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,535 ✭✭✭✭briany


    sid waddell wrote: »
    Trump is the cult of personality and you can't divorce personality from his appeal. Mike Pence could not do what he does. Ivanka Trump could though and that's why she's very dangerous in the long run.

    Ivanka Trump couldn't really make it sound like she means what she says. The only chance she would have would be if Trump himself made it painfully clear that Ivanka was little more than a proxy to get another 4 years for himself, essentially. Even at that, she just wouldn't have the fire in the debates. She's a fashion designer, not a demagogue. Don Jr. might have a chance - he seems to have the sociopathic streak and narcissism to be like his old man in office.


  • #3071
    vladmydad
    Registered Users Posts: 786 ✭✭✭vladmydad


    briany wrote: »
    If Trumpism is a truly popular doctrine then Roy Moore would have won his electoral contest in 2018 and not failed to even win his primary this year. He was someone who was backed by the man himself, and if there's one thing we know about Trumpism, it's that a 'little thing' like sexual misconduct is not supposed to get in the way.

    In fact, there should be Trump acolytes getting voted in all over the place. Is this happening?

    Most of the Republicans who got voted out in 2018 were anti trump, so republicans didn’t show up for them. Just as in the UK, when it came to election time the anti-democracy Tory’s all lost their seats. The party is now the Trump party (95% GOP approval). Roy Moore lost because again conservatives didn’t show up because of his actual crimes (unlike unproven allegations against Trump). Btw the Dem who won that race is toast in November.


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  • #3072
    vladmydad
    Registered Users Posts: 786 ✭✭✭vladmydad


    Gbear wrote: »
    I suppose the thing about Trumpism is that Trump himself probably wouldn't have won the Republican primary if there had been ranked choice voting.

    Republicans really don't actually like him, in the sense that if they had a republican alternative, they'd probably take it in a heartbeat.

    There's a small subset of incels, nazis and other degenerates who genuinely support him because he's a scumbag, but the rest of the Republicans - the Christian fundamentalists, the pro-business crowd, etc, probably think he's a scumbag (and that's in their case that's not a positive). What it says about them that they'd still vote for him regardless is another discussion, but I think his "popularity" has to be held in the proper context.

    The way they vote in candidates might tend to make Trump-like candidates more likely, but I don't think that means that a Trump-like candidate is the most likely next leader of the Republican party.

    Oh they love him. He won effectively uncontested nomination elections the same night as Super Tuesday. They’re meaningless. Yet in many of the states he got more votes than all the Dems combined, especially Texas. A record for a sitting president.


  • #3073
    vladmydad
    Registered Users Posts: 786 ✭✭✭vladmydad


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Agreed.

    If Biden wins in November and its likely, its going to be interesting to see what happens the party. Some like the neocons think Trump was just a one off and it will be back to the "good old days" of the market been God and overseas "exceptionalism",,,with someone like Nikki Hailey, Crenshaw as the leaders of this.


    I am skeptical of that idea as think the party will lean towards those who embrace Trumpism mainly someone like Josh Hawley or even Carlson.

    Those guys however could even be worse than Trump, they will be articulate but and have a clear agenda and won't get sidetracked by petty feuds like Trump.

    It’s not likely at all that Biden wins in November. No president in history has ever been removed with this kind of booming economy. Trumps also got the inherent incumbent advantage, He’s got a staggering war chest built up and above all He’s been a great President ( prosperity and peace) Biden has not been hit at all yet by the GOP. I actually almost feel sorry for him cause by the time they’re finished with him he’ll be in pieces. The RNC play dirty. Hunter Biden’s Ukraine corruption, 94 crime bill, war in Iraq, creepy touching, treatment of Annita Hill, school busing, and above all his clear dementia.


  • #3074
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    briany wrote: »
    Ivanka Trump couldn't really make it sound like she means what she says. The only chance she would have would be if Trump himself made it painfully clear that Ivanka was little more than a proxy to get another 4 years for himself, essentially. Even at that, she just wouldn't have the fire in the debates. She's a fashion designer, not a demagogue. Don Jr. might have a chance - he seems to have the sociopathic streak and narcissism to be like his old man in office.

    Ivanka Trump would cloak kleptocracy in the clothes of feminism.


  • #3075
    vladmydad
    Registered Users Posts: 786 ✭✭✭vladmydad


    sid waddell wrote: »
    Ivanka Trump would cloak kleptocracy in the clothes of feminism.

    Hunter Biden


  • #3076
    kowloon
    Registered Users Posts: 13,276 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    briany wrote: »
    Ivanka Trump couldn't really make it sound like she means what she says. The only chance she would have would be if Trump himself made it painfully clear that Ivanka was little more than a proxy to get another 4 years for himself, essentially. Even at that, she just wouldn't have the fire in the debates. She's a fashion designer, not a demagogue. Don Jr. might have a chance - he seems to have the sociopathic streak and narcissism to be like his old man in office.

    Don Jr. might have the same vibe going as Donal himself, but I believe he has actually mentioned Ivanka as a possible successor before. I'm not sure if it's a line of succession thing in the making.

    I'd like to see Jared take the lead. The speeches would be phenomenal.


  • #3077
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,002 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    briany wrote: »
    If Trumpism is a truly popular doctrine then Roy Moore would have won his electoral contest in 2018 and not failed to even win his primary this year. He was someone who was backed by the man himself, and if there's one thing we know about Trumpism, it's that a 'little thing' like sexual misconduct is not supposed to get in the way.

    In fact, there should be Trump acolytes getting voted in all over the place. Is this happening?

    I was in a rush above, but plenty on the right are trying to add nuance to Trumpism. We can all agree that Trump has no core beliefs, he'd be screaming for open borders if he thought it would bump his numbers.



    Why I think everyone should be keeping a close eye on Josh Hawley when it comes to 2024, he is highly educated, articulate, ambitious, presentable and someone the left should be terrified of.

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/josh-hawley-could-be-the-face-of-the-post-trump-right.html
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/11/josh-hawley-trumpism-gop/602365/

    Someone like him or maybe Tucker will run on populist economy policies and right wing social ideas and if Biden is the opponent in 2024 it could be a blow out.


  • #3078
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 20,758 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    vladmydad wrote: »
    It’s not likely at all that Biden wins in November. No president in history has ever been removed with this kind of booming economy. Trumps also got the inherent incumbent advantage, He’s got a staggering war chest built up and above all He’s been a great President ( prosperity and peace) Biden has not been hit at all yet by the GOP. I actually almost feel sorry for him cause by the time they’re finished with him he’ll be in pieces. The RNC play dirty. Hunter Biden’s Ukraine corruption, 94 crime bill, war in Iraq, creepy touching, treatment of Annita Hill, school busing, and above all his clear dementia.

    The Dow just has it's single biggest loss in a week since 2008 and it hasn't stopped dropping. The Asian markets are in free fall today so there'll be another fall in the Dow and NASDAQ later today.

    We're looking at a massive market correction and possibly a recession way before November. Trumps roaring economy was built on foundations of sand.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • #3079
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 20,758 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    I was in a rush above, but plenty on the right are trying to add nuance to Trumpism. We can all agree that Trump has no core beliefs, he'd be screaming for open borders if he thought it would bump his numbers.



    Why I think everyone should be keeping a close eye on Josh Hawley when it comes to 2024, he is highly educated, articulate, ambitious, presentable and someone the left should be terrified of.

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/josh-hawley-could-be-the-face-of-the-post-trump-right.html
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/11/josh-hawley-trumpism-gop/602365/

    Someone like him or maybe Tucker will run on populist economy policies and right wing social ideas and if Biden is the opponent in 2024 it could be a blow out.

    Are you suggesting Tucker Carlson for president?

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • #3080
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,113 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Brian? wrote: »
    The Dow just has it's single biggest loss in a week since 2008 and it hasn't stopped dropping. The Asian markets are in free fall today so there'll be another fall in the Dow and NASDAQ later today.

    We're looking at a massive market correction and possibly a recession way before November. Trumps roaring economy was built on foundations of sand.

    The 'sand' reference is very apt as it's Trump's friends, the Saudis that have collapsed the price of oil.


  • #3081
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 14,979 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The Nal wrote: »

    It was a link containing a video showing the dem who will be chosen to beat Trump showing himself as a total incompetent.

    It's fairly relevant to the thread.

    It was a link containing a heavily edited video to make it appear that Biden was saying something he wasn't.

    Even Twitter have now flagged it as "Manipulated content"


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  • #3082
    The Nal
    Registered Users Posts: 12,445 ✭✭✭✭The Nal


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    It was a link containing a heavily edited video to make it appear that Biden was saying something he wasn't.

    Even Twitter have now flagged it as "Manipulated content"

    The manipulated content was the cut off at the end yes. However technically they can only re-elect Donald Trump as he is the sitting president. They can re-elect Trump or elect someone else.

    But the bumbling 10 seconds of gibberish that preceded the edit is still relevant.


  • #3083
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 14,979 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The Nal wrote: »
    The manipulated content was the cut off at the end yes. However technically they can only re-elect Donald Trump as he is the sitting president. They can re-elect Trump or elect someone else.

    But the bumbling 10 seconds of gibberish that preceded the edit is still relevant.

    Biden has spoken at length about his struggles to overcome a stammer , which leads to a lot of his verbal errors.

    Trump has no such excuse/mitigation that I am aware of.

    The full quote from Biden was "We can only re-elect Trump if we continue with this Circular Firing squad" - A reference to the infighting among the Democrats.

    A perfectly valid statement , edited down to "We can only re-elect Trump" by the Trump campaign team.

    Who's more at fault here?


  • #3084
    The Nal
    Registered Users Posts: 12,445 ✭✭✭✭The Nal


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    Biden has spoken at length about his struggles to overcome a stammer , which leads to a lot of his verbal errors.

    Trump has no such excuse/mitigation that I am aware of.

    The full quote from Biden was "We can only re-elect Trump if we continue with this Circular Firing squad" - A reference to the infighting among the Democrats.

    A perfectly valid statement , edited down to "We can only re-elect Trump" by the Trump campaign team.

    Who's more at fault here?

    It doesn't matter whos at fault. Its called negative campaigning and has been very successful tool in US politics since Lyndon Johnson. The Republicans are masters at it. Very impressive people like Lee Atwater and Roger Stone have turned it into an art. Horrible horrible people but great at their jobs.

    And yes, perfectly valid statement. The rambling before had nothing to do with Bidens stammer though.

    On a broader point, Biden is an easy target. Hes 78 this year. He appears frail and weak. They'll tear him to pieces.


  • #3085
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 20,758 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    The Nal wrote: »
    It doesn't matter whos at fault. Its called negative campaigning and has been very successful tool in US politics since Lyndon Johnson. The Republicans are masters at it. Very impressive people like Lee Atwater and Roger Stone have turned it into an art. Horrible horrible people but great at their jobs.

    And yes, perfectly valid statement. The rambling before had nothing to do with Bidens stammer though.

    On a broader point, Biden is an easy target. Hes 78 this year. He appears frail and weak. They'll tear him to pieces.

    Whatever else you say about him, Joe Biden is a decent human being. But somehow the GOP have already turned him to a sex monster. He’s been married twice because his first wife died.

    The worst allegations against him are that he gives too many hugs and yet YouTube is full of videos making him look like a serial rapist.

    This is only the start.

    While on the other hand Trump rides porn stars while his wife is recovering from giving birth and is massively popular with the evangelicals. If it was fiction, people would reject it for being too unbelievable.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • #3086
    The Nal
    Registered Users Posts: 12,445 ✭✭✭✭The Nal


    Brian? wrote: »
    Whatever else you say about him, Joe Biden is a decent human being. But somehow the GOP have already turned him to a sex monster. He’s been married twice because his first wife died.

    The worst allegations against him are that he gives too many hugs and yet YouTube is full of videos making him look like a serial rapist.

    This is only the start.

    While on the other hand Trump rides porn stars while his wife is recovering from giving birth and is massively popular with the evangelicals. If it was fiction, people would reject it for being too unbelievable.

    Agree with all of this yes. Him being a decent human being is the problem. Excellent VP and senator, terrible choice for president.

    Apart from the odd president like Obama and Carter, anyone who has won an election post WW2 has been a complete prick.

    Serious question, which has yet to raised by the Replublicans, and it will. Is it a good idea to have person as president who will be 82 years of age finishing his first term? It puts the VP under so much scrutiny.

    So much was made of McCains age by the Democrats at the sprightly age of 71.


  • #3087
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 20,758 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    The Nal wrote: »
    Agree with all of this yes. Him being a decent human being is the problem. Excellent VP and senator, terrible choice for president.

    Apart from the odd president like Obama and Carter, anyone who has won an election post WW2 has been a complete prick.

    Serious question, which has yet to raised by the Replublicans, and it will. Is it a good idea to have person as president who will be 82 years of age finishing his first term? It puts the VP under so much scrutiny.

    So much was made of McCains age by the Democrats at the sprightly age of 71.

    It would take serious neck to make that point with Trump running. But I have no doubt they’ll do it.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • #3088
    marno21
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,344 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Mike Bloomberg has given the Democrats, Biden especially, a taste of what they need to do to level up the playing field here. There is no point in playing nice this time, you will lose.

    There is plenty off fodder there for them, all the brain misfirings if he mentions Biden's mental state, the clips of him talking about Ivanka if he rolls out creepy Joe etc

    The same tactic should be used on Senate races in Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa and Montana (now that it looks like Bullock is running).

    Then again, the shambles that the administration is making of the coronavirus outbreak, and the crashing stock market may do a lot of the work for the Democrats.


  • #3089
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,535 ✭✭✭✭briany


    marno21 wrote: »
    Then again, the shambles that the administration is making of the coronavirus outbreak, and the crashing stock market may do a lot of the work for the Democrats.

    Donald Trump has already called the virus a Democrat hoax, and you'd expect him to stick with that sentiment. And presumably his supporters will buy that, too.

    "They say the virus was made in China. Maybe in a lab under the instruction of Obama, we don't know, we don't know."


  • #3090
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,002 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Brian? wrote: »
    Are you suggesting Tucker Carlson for president?

    I'm not suggesting I would like to see it but their is serious inequality in America which I don't expect Biden to really tackle. Someone like Hawley or tucker running on an economic populist and socially conservative message will make mincemeat out of moderate Joe.

    It's such a shame Warren ran such a dire campaign because America needs an fdr type person as president.


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  • #3091
    eire4
    Registered Users Posts: 6,625 ✭✭✭eire4


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    I'm not suggesting I would like to see it but their is serious inequality in America which I don't expect Biden to really tackle. Someone like Hawley or tucker running on an economic populist and socially conservative message will make mincemeat out of moderate Joe.

    It's such a shame Warren ran such a dire campaign because America needs an fdr type person as president.

    There is absolutely no question Biden if he becomes president will be fully down with continuing the corporate Democrats policies economically which come from the Milton Frideman disaster capitalism playbook and which has seen the rich continue to gobble up more and more of the pie in the US and income inequality continue to get worse.


This discussion has been closed.
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