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Iran Did Do It..............says Trump

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    #362
    kildare lad
    Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭kildare lad


    Gringo180 wrote: »
    Cancelling the strike hes saved countless of lives including innocent American lives also. A war with Iran would be worse than the Vietnam war.

    I don't think so, america will just bomb them from long range, if they put boots on the ground , that's another story. They lost 4000 soldiers in iraq, they'd lose a he'll of a lot more if they went into iran . The American public want another land invasion and either does trump


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    #363
    1o059k7ewrqj3n
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,779 ✭✭✭1o059k7ewrqj3n


    Gatling wrote: »
    Not the really no .


    America could hit the length and breadth of Iran without putting a single tank or infantry units on the ground ,
    They don't need to invade and hold territory they just need to do enough to weaken the government and let Iranians do the rest ,the only thing keeping the Iranian forces in power is the total oppression of the people under the guise of the keeping the revolution alive ,

    No revolution just middle East oppression

    Even after a barrage of standoff weapons like cruise missiles which could put down the Iranian air defence network - which is not going to be easy and will certainly involve losses as the Iranians have S-300PMU2 and will target things like AWACS/AEW aircraft - you ultimately have to put boots on the ground. The type of regime change that Bolton and co are talking about can only be achieved by a ground force invasion. The west has had serious difficulty in Afghanistan and Iran would be worse.

    Then there is the assumption that the conflict will remain tied to Iran. It won't. There will be fighting in Lebanon, Iraq and attacks against Israel. There will be attacks in Saudi Arabia. You've got a Republican Guard coming in off the back of operations in Syria, you've got the Quds force no doubt involved over there too. Hamas will be very active. All very combat experienced groups.

    No doubt, the sanctions are crippling Iran and severely harming its people, but Iran won't let it get to the point where it quietly dies in the corner, not when they have the opportunity to close the Gulf. That is the one hand they can play, and closing down the Strait of Hormuz to shipping will have dire consequences for the international markets.

    It ultimately comes down to the Iranian people. Do they really want western backed regime change? That worked out well for Iraq and Libya, didn't it?
    Strategic Culture Dot Org wrote:
    The key point is it doesn’t matter how the Strait of Hormuz is blocked.

    It could be a false flag. Or it could be because the Iranian government feels it’s going to be attacked and then sinks a cargo ship or two. What matters is the final result; any blocking of the energy flow will lead the price of oil to reach $200 a barrel, $500 or even, according to some Goldman Sachs projections, $1,000.

    Another US banking source explains; “The key in the analysis is what is called notional. They are so far out of the money that they are said to mean nothing. But in a crisis the notional can become real. For example, if I buy a call for a million barrels of oil at $300 a barrel, my cost will not be very great as it is thought to be inconceivable that the price will go that high. That is notional. But if the Strait is closed, that can become a stupendous figure.”

    BIS will only commit, officially, to indicate the total notional amount outstanding for contracts in derivatives markers is an estimated $542.4 trillion. But this is just an estimate.

    The banking source adds, “Even here it is the notional that has meaning. Huge amounts are interest rate derivatives. Most are notional but if oil goes to a thousand dollars a barrel, then this will affect interest rates if 45% of the world’s GDP is oil. This is what is called in business a contingent liability.”

    Goldman Sachs has projected a feasible, possible $1,000 a barrel a few weeks after the Strait of Hormuz being shut down. This figure, times 100 million barrels of oil produced per day, leads us to 45% of the $80 trillion global GDP. It’s self-evident the world economy would collapse based on just that alone.


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    #364
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    dasdog wrote:
    There is a danger of an accidental war - humans are the only ones that could come up with that bollocks.

    Eh.... Yeah. Thanks for that. I was sure it would be the dolphins or the elephants.


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    #365
    Stacksofwacks
    Registered Users Posts: 1,534 ✭✭✭Stacksofwacks


    America would get their asses handed to them anyway. Iran has a serious military and spy network, it wouldnt be a case of just carpet bombing them and sending in the troops. Also China dont exactly like America, whats to stop them selling the Iranians a pile of drones who I'm sure could afford them


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    #366
    kowloon
    Registered Users Posts: 13,279 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    InTheShadows wrote: »
    It's a great country. Where did i say otherwise? Doesn't mean America isn't a great country also.

    Apparently it used to be, but then it wasn't and now they're making it great again.


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    #367
    Palmy
    Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭Palmy


    kildare lad wrote: »
    It Donald Trumps fault anyway, He thinks he's sitting in his office in trump tower, ordering people what to do , claiming bankruptcy, going to court , being sued and counter sueing, except this is real life . Tens of thousands of people could die cause of someone's ego or a false flag attack.

    He pulled out of the nuclear deal , that was working because the Kenyan fella signed it, then sanctioned iran so the country can't make money, hoping for regime change, we've all seen how costly in lives regime change is in the middle east... iraq, syria , Libya. Not to mention all the terrorist attacks and millions of refugees poring into Europe.

    While I do agree that iran are no angels either are the Saudis who a lot of people think are funding isis . The sooner we can get away from all the better this planet will be.


    Yeah that’s why he is the only American president in recent history to sit down with North Korea and try broker a peace deal. He pulled troops out of both Iraq and Afghanistan and ended the rule of Isis throughout Iraq and Syria. He is one of the only politicians who doesn’t need to profit off a phony war. He already is a billionaire so he doesn’t need to take back handers and brown envelopes of military manufactures for a side hustle. Look at all the career US politicians, all millionaires from being in politics. The Clintons were broke when they left the White House but now are worth in the hundreds of millions. Remember Obama whispering in Medivedevs ear when he thought he was off camera saying “ Tell Vladimir I can do more once I leave office. Then Obama dropping more bombs and drone strikes than any other President after failing to protect the no fly zone in Syria and causing the mass exodus of refugees into Europe. Trump is the only one who is not a war monger.


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    #368
    Nobelium
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭Nobelium


    Iran used to constantly take a hand at the USA and the west when Obama was in the white house. . .not anymore


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    #369
    Franz Von Peppercorn II
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    Gatling wrote: »
    Doubt that you actually care but if it's yanks doing it's an atrocity anyone else it's a conspiracy theory from the CIA

    Can you ever stop your inane strawman arguments.


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    #370
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    Gatling wrote: »
    Not the really no .


    America could hit the length and breadth of Iran without putting a single tank or infantry units on the ground ,
    They don't need to invade and hold territory they just need to do enough to weaken the government and let Iranians do the rest ,the only thing keeping the Iranian forces in power is the total oppression of the people under the guise of the keeping the revolution alive ,

    No revolution just middle East oppression

    Tell me about Ruby Ridge, Waco or the countless American riots. Americans are just as disillusioned as the average Iranian.you sound very clueless.


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    #371
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    Gatling wrote: »
    Remember they have been getting assistance from russian advisors and technology transfers to beat sanctions ,it's the same reason they will use the military to quell any protests in the country ,like most Arab states religious leaders and their military have more power than any elected government or civilian population

    For the most part their military is lacking any real firepower yes they have russian and build under licence russian systems ,a few submarines and a very aging and lacking airforce ,still flying F4 phantoms and F5 light fighter's (sill very capable in the right hands)
    Their navy is mostly fast patrol boats which could be difficult to deal with but easy enough to deal with when your a Carrier group , they also have their own fleet of drones with some weapon capabilities.

    Could be an interesting fight

    Americans couldn't intercept passengers planes flying at 500 mph on 9/11. You think the game is set and match cause the spent x amount on defence. Remember this boeing and Lockheed ran their testing in cotrolled experiments in a bid to secure government payments. The same boeing couldn't make a simple passanger jets fly.lets see how they fare out in all out war.


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    #372
    Gatling
    Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    smurgen wrote: »
    Tell me about Ruby Ridge, Waco or the countless American riots.

    tiananmen square.


    Top trump
    360_F_102352090_ie3kLjDIvgrT1sxVDknWCUh8PxgMYzM7.jpg




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    #373
    Gatling
    Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    smurgen wrote: »
    Americans couldn't intercept passengers planes flying at 500 mph on 9/11. You think the game is set and match cause the spent x amount on defence. Remember this boeing and Lockheed ran their testing in cotrolled experiments in a bid to secure government payments. The same boeing couldn't make a simple passanger jets fly.lets see how they fare out in all out war.


    No but it's simple America can strike any where in Iran 24/7 this a fact they don't need boots on the ground and Iran has a very limited airforce ,
    America has repeatedly shown they can fly and bomb anywhere including heavily defended airspace ,
    9/11 arguments laughed at that ,
    360_F_102352090_ie3kLjDIvgrT1sxVDknWCUh8PxgMYzM7.jpg




  • Options
    #374
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    Gatling wrote: »
    tiananmen square.


    Top trump

    What has china to do with anything? If you're talking top trump how about ss 28 russian missile if this really escalates?the americans never did and never will own the world the sooner you realise this the better.


  • Options
    #375
    Gatling
    Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    smurgen wrote: »
    the americans never did and never will own the world the sooner you realise this the better.

    This is already old and tedious

    Who said America owns the world because I didn't not have I ever .


    Cornflakes anyone
    360_F_102352090_ie3kLjDIvgrT1sxVDknWCUh8PxgMYzM7.jpg




  • Options
    #376
    smurfjed
    Registered Users Posts: 10,030 ✭✭✭✭smurfjed


    Galwayguy35 wrote: »
    I'd have thought the sanctions would be hitting Iran fairly hard and they wouldn't have the money to invest in building up their military and buying weapons which would be kind of important in a fight with the United States.
    It's always funny that regardless of sanctions, countries will always find the money for military infrastructure.
    Galwayguy35 wrote: »
    They would also have to deal with Israel which would probably be sending in their fighter planes at the same time as the US.

    Israel is long long way from Iran in a fighter jet, and while the might succeed with a couple of sneak trips, attacking from Israel wouldn't be sustainable


  • Options
    #377
    smurfjed
    Registered Users Posts: 10,030 ✭✭✭✭smurfjed


    kildare lad wrote: »
    either are the Saudis who a lot of people think are funding isis .
    Interesting claim, but it doesn't appear to be backed by Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

    Saudi Arabia received an invitation from FATF at the beginning of 2015 to join as an “observer member” as the group hailed the Kingdom’s position at international and regional levels, as well as its efforts in combating money laundering, financing of terrorism and proliferation of arms.


  • Options
    #378
    smurfjed
    Registered Users Posts: 10,030 ✭✭✭✭smurfjed


    Where is Russia in all of this?

    The might like the idea of Strait getting closed and exporting their own oil at $1000 a barrel?


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    #379
    Ardillaun
    Registered Users Posts: 2,535 ✭✭✭Ardillaun


    Iran’s limited aggression against tankers and drones makes sense when one considers the nature of the game:
    The most important variable in the current Persian Gulf confrontation is time. The Trump administration wants to play a long game, to draw the sanctions tourniquet ever tighter. Iran needs to play a short game, to escape the U.S. chokehold before it becomes fatal.

    This inner dynamic helps explain the past month’s events in the gulf — Iran’s steady escalation of deniable strikes and President Trump’s relatively restrained military response. Each side has a different playbook, dictated by its interests, resources and ability to sustain operations.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/iran-must-escape-the-american-chokehold-before-it-becomes-fatal/2019/06/20/b7f1033a-9395-11e9-b58a-a6a9afaa0e3e_story.html?utm_term=.b5cf52619912

    The Iranian regime has decided that it must risk obliteration to stop the assault on its economy.


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    #380
    Manic Moran
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,221 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Gringo180 wrote: »
    Cancelling the strike hes saved countless of lives including innocent American lives also. A war with Iran would be worse than the Vietnam war.

    After the Iranian Navy got fairly much removed from the Gulf in the 1988 by the US Navy, there seemed to have been no particular repercussions. Except for the tanker war stopping.

    That's not to say Iran couldn't make life very miserable for the US in Iraq or Afghanistan. Or perhaps better to say more miserable, nobody thinks they're not involved.

    It's interesting to note that the various official briefings are drawing a distinction between the IRGC and the Iranian Army. It's often "IRGC missile" and "IRGC Boat" instead of a simple "Iranian". I submit that this is not accidental and is part of a strategy to limit expansion.


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    #381
    Nobelium
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭Nobelium


    Looking forward to Trump kicking some Iranian terrorism ass, unlike that coward Obama.


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    #382
    archer22
    Registered Users Posts: 2,116 ✭✭✭archer22


    The 'democracy' that America claims to exporting is some sack of sh1t alright.

    A form of 'democracy' where you need to bomb and burn foreign men women and children in their homes to win the next f**king election.

    Why don't American's stick to what they do best..f**king shooting each other, and leave the rest of the world in peace.


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    #383
    Nobelium
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭Nobelium


    archer22 wrote: »
    The 'democracy' that America claims to exporting is some sack of sh1t alright.

    A form of 'democracy' where you need to bomb and burn foreign men women and children in their homes to win the next f**king election.

    Why don't American's stick to what they do best..f**king shooting each other, and leave the rest of the world in peace.

    Those Iranians bastions of democracy, always looking after Irish interests and providing a huge benefit to the Irish economy.


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    #384
    jackboy
    Registered Users Posts: 4,427 ✭✭✭jackboy


    archer22 wrote: »
    The 'democracy' that America claims to exporting is some sack of sh1t alright.

    A form of 'democracy' where you need to bomb and burn foreign men women and children in their homes to win the next f**king election.

    Why don't American's stick to what they do best..f**king shooting each other, and leave the rest of the world in peace.

    If America became totally isolationist, the rest of he world would pretty quickly descend to large scale war in my opinion. The Americans are the only ones keeping relative world peace at the moment. Of course they make mistakes and have attacked some countries for dubious reasons but we have no one else to prevent worldwide slaughter.


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    #385
    Blueshoe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,964 ✭✭✭Blueshoe


    Check out the 5 year stock chart from Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon.
    The big boys in the weapons manufacturing space.

    Serious returns for investors


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    #386
    archer22
    Registered Users Posts: 2,116 ✭✭✭archer22


    Nobody likes American's....Hell even American's don't like Americans :pac:

    That's why so many of them end up somewhere with a stash of weapons trying to kill as many of their fellow countrymen as they can.

    And it's why the gunshops are full of others buying handguns..they are not buying them to protect themselves from Iranians ;)


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    #387
    Franz Von Peppercorn II
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    Gatling wrote: »
    This is already old and tedious

    Who said America owns the world because I didn't not have I ever .


    Cornflakes anyone

    You seem to believe the US has the right to invade any country, overthrow any democracy, or regime that acts against their interests and install any puppet regime they choose. You choose the US side every time.

    Wtf does Cornflakes mean.


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    #388
    Franz Von Peppercorn II
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    Nobelium wrote: »
    Looking forward to Trump kicking some Iranian terrorism ass, unlike that coward Obama.

    This is a sick comment anyway since it’s demanding death of humans.

    However as a non American why would you want more American led destabilisation in the actual area of the world you live in, if this causes a refugee crisis, as it will if the whole thing kicks off.

    Obama did enough killings of his own, as befits any American President.


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    #389
    Franz Von Peppercorn II
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    smurfjed wrote: »
    It's always funny that regardless of sanctions, countries will always find the money for military infrastructure.

    Not that funny if sanctions are a prelude to invasion, as they normally are.


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    #390
    Cheerful Spring2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,705 ✭✭✭Cheerful Spring2


    Gatling wrote: »
    No but it's simple America can strike any where in Iran 24/7 this a fact they don't need boots on the ground and Iran has a very limited airforce ,
    America has repeatedly shown they can fly and bomb anywhere including heavily defended airspace ,
    9/11 arguments laughed at that ,

    You have limited understanding of Iranian capabilities.The saudis and UAE have been engaged in a war with sandal wearing Houtis for years and there not winning and they are using American military equipment.

    If you think this will be like Iraq you going to be wrong. Iran has some of best missile systems in the world. They have hundreds of cruise missiles and antiship missiles ie missiles that take out aircraft carriers and destroyers- it not empty threats they are making. Their anti-air defence is sophicated and they have knocks off of s300 and s400. This will not be a free ride across Iran. You forgetting they have spies and a world class cyber network spread across the world. It very likely the action will not be contained to just Iran. Cities in UAE and Saudi Arabia and Israel will be targetted. I also expect bombings in the United States- Iranian sleeper cells ordered to carry out attacks.


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    #391
    Cheerful Spring2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,705 ✭✭✭Cheerful Spring2


    Manic Moran wrote: »
    After the Iranian Navy got fairly much removed from the Gulf in the 1988 by the US Navy, there seemed to have been no particular repercussions. Except for the tanker war stopping.

    That's not to say Iran couldn't make life very miserable for the US in Iraq or Afghanistan. Or perhaps better to say more miserable, nobody thinks they're not involved.

    It's interesting to note that the various official briefings are drawing a distinction between the IRGC and the Iranian Army. It's often "IRGC missile" and "IRGC Boat" instead of a simple "Iranian". I submit that this is not accidental and is part of a strategy to limit expansion.

    You forgetting though the Islamic revolution destroyed the professional army. So when Saddam attacked them they were very unprepared and not ready. It was only at the closing stages of the war they mounted a comeback and Saddam much stronger army was forced to retreat and Iranian army began to invade into Iraq.They got near the bagadad highway and then Saddam started using Chemical weapons to stop any advancement. In the end Iran agreed to a ceasefire.

    Iran military is lot stronger today- and build up its defences for this war against the United States.

    Americans will get a bloody nose if they think this war going to be over in days or weeks.


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