2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths · 02-01-2021 11:42pm #1

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

Pelezico · 02-01-2021 11:50pm

Happy new year to you. I thought mods were the only ones who could start threads.

I think it will be crazy year. Cant see anyone wanting to move...ie buy or sell.

hometruths · 02-01-2021 11:53pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Happy new year to you. I thought mods were the only ones who could start threads.

I think it will be crazy year. Cant see anyone wanting to move...ie buy or sell.

Full disclosure - hoping to do both. Much more likely to be posting through my pocket this year!

TheSheriff · 02-01-2021 11:56pm

Predictions for 2021 for Dublin; much the same as 2020, minor prices changes +/- a few percentage points of 2019's price.

Plenty of FTB's out there looking to buy, government eager to prop up prices.

Timing belt · 02-01-2021 11:57pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Happy new year to you. I thought mods were the only ones who could start threads.

I think it will be crazy year. Cant see anyone wanting to move...ie buy or sell.

It will be a up and down year with credit conditions tightening at the end of Q1 after bank’s report looses and increase in arrears. But will be offset by people looking for a home for their savings once banks start charging negative interest rates on amounts over x as they they try to pass on costs of excess liquidity to customers. Overall I predict a 10-15% by the end of the year.

Pelezico · 02-01-2021 11:58pm

schmittel wrote: »

Full disclosure - hoping to do both. Much more likely to be posting through my pocket this year!

I think the likes of daft and myhome will start to suffer with fewer properties on the market.

We will be in a very grim place until late spring. So one half of thebuying/selling year gone.

hometruths · 02-01-2021 11:59pm

Timing belt wrote: »

It will be a up and down year with credit conditions tightening at the end of Q1 after bank’s report looses and increase in arrears. But will be offset by people looking for a home for their savings once banks start charging negative interest rates on amounts over x as they they try to pass on costs of excess liquidity to customers. Overall I predict a 10-15% by the end of the year.

Rise or fall?!

Timing belt · 02-01-2021 11:59pm

schmittel wrote: »

Rise or fall?!

Rise as money will flow out of deposits in banks and into property

hometruths · 03-01-2021 12:03am

Pelezico wrote: »

I think the likes of daft and myhome will start to suffer with fewer properties on the market.

We will be in a very grim place until late spring. So one half of thebuying/selling year gone.

Agree the covid/economy outlook appears bleak for the next few months.

Planning to put our house on market in the spring. Hopeful if we are looking at effective vaccination programme getting on top of covid by early summer, will see supply increase in summer/autumn.

ongarite · 03-01-2021 12:07am

Can't see anything but rises in new builds in Dublin and surrounding counties.
HTB & people sitting on piles of cash with nothing to spend it on last 9 months.

Any new developments I've been looking at have sold within a day in one case and 2 weeks in most others and that's even with COVID restrictions.

I've gone sale agreed on my property few weeks ago.
For what should be dead time of year for sales, saw property go from on the market to sale agreed in less than a week.

TheSheriff · 03-01-2021 12:08am

ongarite wrote: »

Can't see anything but rises in new builds in Dublin and surrounding counties.
HTB & people sitting on piles of cash with nothing to spend it on last 9 months.

Any new developments I've been looking at have sold within a day in one case and 2 weeks in most others and that's even with COVID restrictions.

I've gone sale agreed on my property few weeks ago.
For what should be dead time of year for sales, saw property go from on the market to sale agreed in less than a week.

That's a pretty impressive turn around. What general area and price range was this?

bilbot79 · 03-01-2021 12:09am

Yipeeee. I made first page

))))

Hoping prices fall this year

hometruths · 03-01-2021 12:11am

Timing belt wrote: »

Rise as money will flow out of deposits in banks and into property

I'm in agreement with the -ve interest rates/fear of inflation theories but 10-15% would be massive rise.

What sort of figure do you reckon x will be in "banks start charging negative interest rates on amounts over x"?

i.e if that is 100k what point in the market will that effect? it wont be ftb new builds.

Do you think people will put their savings into their PPRs or investment properties?

Pelezico · 03-01-2021 12:13am

bilbot79 wrote: »

Yipeeee. I made first page ))))

Hoping prices fall this year

It is going to be a long year.

The lack of supply is an enormous issue. That said, the number of people not paying mortgages is enormous and will impact banks capital adequacies.

TheSheriff · 03-01-2021 12:14am

schmittel wrote: »

I'm in agreement with the -ve interest rates/fear of inflation theories but 10-15% would be massive rise.

What sort of figure do you reckon x will be in "banks start charging negative interest rates on amounts over x"?

i.e if that is 100k what point in the market will that effect? it wont be ftb new builds.

Do you think people will put their savings into their PPRs or investment properties?

No evidence of this, but I remember some article last year vaguely which mentioned 50k?

If its 50k as an example, it will impact this market.

We'll have to wait and see.

Pelezico · 03-01-2021 12:19am

In my home town during the last downturn,there were 500 houses on daft. Now there are only 130 houses.

So daft is suffering and there is poor supply.

Ronan Lyons may have to amend his report to encourage more supply.

Timing belt · 03-01-2021 12:24am

schmittel wrote: »

I'm in agreement with the -ve interest rates/fear of inflation theories but 10-15% would be massive rise.

What sort of figure do you reckon x will be in "banks start charging negative interest rates on amounts over x"?

i.e if that is 100k what point in the market will that effect? it wont be ftb new builds.

Do you think people will put their savings into their PPRs or investment properties?

Think it will start at around 100k but will drop to 50k by end of year. Maybe I am wrong and they don’t do it for some legal reason and sit with losses for the next few years or increase margins on lending to compensate.

I think they will spend on personal property mainly as it’s perceived as a safe asset that will hold value.

In addition to banks charging negative interest I think the Stock market will have a correction at some stage in Q1 if their is no sign of inflation. Normally people shift funds from shares to bonds when this happens which would lead to lower bond yields. But can see people moving to property as an alternative to avoid negative yields on bonds. And this will drive the investment properties.

Busi_Girl08 · 03-01-2021 1:04am

Will be starting the mortgage application process with my fiance soon. I'm a solid mix of excited and nervous about what's facing us this year! Both FTBs.

tommyombomb · 03-01-2021 3:39am

Fear property is only going to increase, too many people like myself who are fortunate to be still working and with wfh along with potentially moving back in with parents are seeing their nest eggs grow. (not giving a percentage as feel impossible to say with proper data analysis, whole thing could crash as easily, only using a micro economic factor to reach a conclusion anyway)

Roll on 2022 when i will be able to apply to mortgage and hopefully a market correction.

hometruths · 03-01-2021 9:34am

Timing belt wrote: »

Think it will start at around 100k but will drop to 50k by end of year. Maybe I am wrong and they don’t do it for some legal reason and sit with losses for the next few years or increase margins on lending to compensate.

I think they will spend on personal property mainly as it’s perceived as a safe asset that will hold value.

In addition to banks charging negative interest I think the Stock market will have a correction at some stage in Q1 if their is no sign of inflation. Normally people shift funds from shares to bonds when this happens which would lead to lower bond yields. But can see people moving to property as an alternative to avoid negative yields on bonds. And this will drive the investment properties.

Negative interest rates or not I do agree many will think keeping significant sums on deposit is a mugs game.

This is what I think will release the pent up supply, it will largely go into trader upper properties, and some normal level of turnover will come back to the market across all levels. This wont start until H2.

With increased supply/turnover I cannot see 10-15% rises.

Wanderer78 · 03-01-2021 9:48am

schmittel wrote:

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

Cant see prices falling at all, can see demand increasing in certain regions, hence prices increasing

Hubertj · 03-01-2021 10:55am

I think the lockdown will be extended to include construction. How long it is for will determine impact on supply for 2021. Many people will not put their house on market until COVID is gone.
I think warehouse and industrial prices could increase due to demand brought about by brexit.

I don’t think residential prices will increase and we will continue to see regional increases / decreases. Impact of wfh? WeWork and others reported record day pass sales in q4 for some countries. Novelty wearing off.

I look forward to hearing about the “vested interests”, conspiracy theories and impending market crash. I also look forward to some insightful discussion based on facts and data.

Happy new year all.

random_banter · 03-01-2021 11:14am

Happy New Year.

We're working off the theory/hope that this year will see some pent up supply released after people held on to their properties during the height of the pandemic. With vaccine programmes rolling out people may feel more comfortable making changes and put their properties on the market.

2020 was to be the year we bought our first home but despite a great deposit we found that the homes we were viewing were being snapped up quickly by desperate buyers paying well over asking. Supply was truly terrible (searching in South Dublin). After spending the last 9 months working in the kitchen of our tiny apartment, we’re praying we can get some more space soon. Seems like many of our rival bidders were in a similar situation. 2020 was incredibly disappointing from a buyer’s point of view. Hoping for a better ‘21.

TheSheriff · 03-01-2021 11:14am

Hubertj wrote: »

I think the lockdown will be extended to include construction. How long it is for will determine impact on supply for 2021. Many people will not put their house on market until COVID is gone.
I think warehouse and industrial prices could increase due to demand brought about by brexit.

I don’t think residential prices will increase and we will continue to see regional increases / decreases. Impact of wfh? WeWork and others reported record day pass sales in q4 for some countries. Novelty wearing off.

I look forward to hearing about the “vested interests”, conspiracy theories and impending market crash. I also look forward to some insightful discussion based on facts and data.

Happy new year all.

The WeWork stats are certainly telling with regards WFH.

Personally, I'd love if my company offered similar

mcsean2163 · 03-01-2021 11:39am

Looking to move to somewhere with a bigger back garden, not great options Wicklow/ Kildare.

We're in Dublin 8 and there seems to be new empty apartment blocks all around. I would have thought a lot of foreign nationals would leave with covid19 but maybe not, so surprised by market resilience and wondering if there will be a collapse at all. We can't find anything my wife is happy with....

ongarite · 03-01-2021 11:48am

Hubertj wrote: »

I think the lockdown will be extended to include construction. How long it is for will determine impact on supply for 2021. Many people will not put their house on market until COVID is gone.
I think warehouse and industrial prices could increase due to demand brought about by brexit.

Construction won't be shutdown IMO.
Its too late already anyway as trades are back on sites all across this island North and South tomorrow.

Stopping construction again will only reduce supply & piss off future home-owners who are waiting on completion dates.
Private sector/industry builds can't afford another 3 month delay again.

Smouse156 · 03-01-2021 12:50pm

Happy New Year!

As someone looking to buy, hoping for some discounts. Probably likely to find them on homes over 600k or apartments. The stuff with HTB will keep rising and commuter towns also.

Overall flat year as Sheriff states +- a few % and Daft trying to spin asking price rises.

The bank negative interest rates won’t be a factor at all as most people will just set up new accounts with different banks or pay the cost. I don’t see it being a factor. BOI introduced the €6/month charge as they know most people won’t be bothered moving current account...and they were right! Any small negative interest rate will just be paid by the vast majority or they’ll shift money to new banks to stay under the cap

Wanderer78 · 03-01-2021 1:43pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

Happy New Year!

As someone looking to buy, hoping for some discounts. Probably likely to find them on homes over 600k or apartments. The stuff with HTB will keep rising and commuter towns also.

Overall flat year as Sheriff states +- a few % and Daft trying to spin asking price rises.

The bank negative interest rates won’t be a factor at all as most people will just set up new accounts with different banks or pay the cost. I don’t see it being a factor. BOI introduced the €6/month charge as they know most people won’t be bothered moving current account...and they were right! Any small negative interest rate will just be paid by the vast majority or they’ll shift money to new banks to stay under the cap

am i right in saying, negative rates are for government bonds, and not the majority of deposits?

Pelezico · 03-01-2021 1:47pm

Here is the other thing. Lots of multinational workers in Ireland and they have plenty of share options in new economy booming stocks.

There is a wealth effect and a lack of supply.

DubLad69 · 03-01-2021 1:47pm

ongarite wrote: »

Can't see anything but rises in new builds in Dublin and surrounding counties.
HTB & people sitting on piles of cash with nothing to spend it on last 9 months.

Any new developments I've been looking at have sold within a day in one case and 2 weeks in most others and that's even with COVID restrictions.

There are new builds in Maynooth, Leixlip, Celbridge and Newcastle (all right on the edge of Dublin) that are in the 400k area that have been sitting around unsold for months.

I can't see any significant price rises in those areas.

Wanderer78 · 03-01-2021 1:53pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Here is the other thing. Lots of multinational workers in Ireland and they have plenty of share options in new economy booming stocks.

There is a wealth effect and a lack of supply.

share ownership is heavily skewed within these multinationals, most would be held amongst high level employees

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1