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2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.
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Here's a summary of February's Arctic sea ice extent. Despite what some tried to imply during the Texas outbreak, the Arctic wasn't "almost ice-free", being only the 7th lowest in the satellite record. Stilll wondering if Akrasia had any joy finding out what the reason for the 1895 storm was that was different to the reason for this one.
Also note that 925-hPa temperature over Siberia was up to 8 degrees below average, as were northern Alaska and the Beaufort Sea.
Arctic sea ice extent averaged for the month of February 2021 was 14.39 million square kilometers (5.56 million square miles), placing it seventh lowest in the satellite record for the month. This was 910,000 million square kilometers (351,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 February average and 420,000 square kilometers (162,000 square miles) above the record low mark for February set in 2018. For the month of February, ice extent was near average in most regions of the Arctic except most notably in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and to a lesser extent in the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk. The ice edge was also further north than average on the northern and western side of Svalbard.
Throughout the month, sea ice grew by an average of 9,900 square kilometers (3,800 square miles) per day, roughly half the average rate over the period 1981 to 2010 of 20,300 square kilometers (7,800 square miles per day).
Air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above the surface) were from 1 to 6 degrees Celsius (2 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit) above average across much of the central Arctic Ocean, East Siberian Sea, Atlantic Sector, and Canadian Arctic Archipelago. By contrast, northern Alaska, Siberia, and the Beaufort Seas saw temperatures up to 8 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit) below average (Figure 2b).
The first part of the month was characterized by extremely high sea level pressure over the central Arctic Ocean, driving an exceptionally strong clockwise Beaufort Gyre sea ice circulation. This is consistent with the strongly negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation observed over this time period, which is sometimes associated with a wavy jet stream pattern and cold air outbreaks in lower latitudes, such as was experienced in Texas during the middle of the month. While this pattern broke down later in the month, the average sea level pressure pattern for February still featured a strong Beaufort High, with peak surface pressures exceeding 1,030 (Figure 2c). This atmospheric circulation pattern, driving a pronounced clockwise Beaufort Gyre circulation, led to the transport of thick multiyear ice along the Canadian Arctic Archipelago towards the Alaskan coastline.0 -
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For those interested, studies on AGW impact on extreme weather. Mapped out for the Nerds too
https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world
Following the link leads you to this.
Which leads you to Heatwave in northern Europe, summer 2018In Ireland, the Netherlands and Denmark there are clear trends towards more heat waves in the observations. In Ireland and Denmark climate models give a very similar increase in probabilities to the observations — roughly a factor two more likely in Dublin and a factor four in Denmark. In the Netherlands the observed increase in hot extremes is much larger than the modelled increase. This is a well-known problem (Min et al, 2013, Sippel et al, 2016) but the cause has not yet been elucidated.
source
That leads to Friederike Otto another product of the Potsdam climate scientist nursery now based in Oxford.Friederike E.L. Otto (PhD in philosophy, 2011)
» Philosophical aspects of climate modeling
» Co-advisor: H. Tetens, Free University, Berlin, Germany:
» Scholarship of Friedrich-Ebert Foundation
» For publications see website.
» Now deputy director of eci @ University of Oxford, UK.
source
You can read her book "Angry weather – In search of the culprits for heatwaves, floods and storms"with reviews by the usual cheerleaders.“Angry Weather introduces us to the forensic scientists of climate change; if you like to watch CSI, you’ll be equally enthralled with the skill and speed these folks exhibit. But the stakes are infinitely higher!”
—Bill McKibben, author of Falter: Has the Human Game Begun to Play Itself Out?
<snip>
“This fascinating book takes us on a voyage across the cutting edge of climate science that irrevocably alters our perspective of the world in which we live and the future it holds. I wish I could make this book required reading for the world.”
—Katharine Hayhoe, UN Champion of the Earth
The usual garbage in garbage out climate modelling interspersed with cherry picked data points to generate media headlines.Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.
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Pa ElGrande wrote: »Following the link leads you to this.
Which leads you to Heatwave in northern Europe, summer 2018
That leads to Friederike Otto another product of the Potsdam climate scientist nursery now based in Oxford.
You can read her book "Angry weather – In search of the culprits for heatwaves, floods and storms"with reviews by the usual cheerleaders.
The usual garbage in garbage out climate modelling interspersed with cherry picked data points to generate media headlines.
Lol, Jesus H and Joseph Stalin !0 -
Banana Republic 1 wrote: »Lol, . , ,!
The science of attribution, testing one hypothesis against another hypothesis using computer simulations based on assumptions that time and again fail reality and have a predictive value of zero.
Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.
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Attachment not found.It's interesting the lack of global interest in the rodent problem in southeastern Australia due to the bumper harvest this year. Rainfall has been abundant and is set to continue so over the next few months. This time last year there was plenty of talk about the fires and the fact that the drought was something we should be getting used to, but this year there seems to be very little commentary on it because the opposite has been happening.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20210318-outlook.shtmlEnd of March and April likely to be wetter than average for parts of northern and eastern Australia
Issued: 18 March 2021
April to June is likely to be wetter than average (chance of exceeding median is more than 60%) across the Kimberley in WA, the northern half of the NT, northern and eastern Queensland, and eastern parts of NSW and Victoria. Remaining areas show no significant shift towards a wetter or drier three months (chances of exceeding median is close to 50%).
The 3-month wet signal is dominated by the April outlook, with April likely to be wetter than average across a similar area, including northern WA, the northern and central NT, most of Queensland except the far south-west, and patchy areas of NSW, Victoria, Tasmania, and south-east SA. May, on the other hand, is likely to be a drier month for parts of northern and south-west Australia with the remainder of the country having roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average month.
The fortnight of 22 March to 4 April is likely to be wetter than average (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%) over the eastern half of Australia extending into the far north of WA. Parts of the far north, and down the east coast are very likely to be wetter than average (greater than 80% chance). For the remainder of WA, south-west NT and eastern SA there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than usual fortnight.Climate outlook overview
11 March 2021
April to June rainfall is likely to be above average for large parts of northern and eastern Australia.
Maximum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than average for most of northern Australia, the west coast of WA, the east coast of Queensland, and Tasmania.
Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, except for parts of SA, WA and north-western NSW.
The current La Niña is forecast to end during autumn. La Niña typically increases the likelihood of above average rainfall across eastern Australia during early autumn, and this influence is expected to continue as the event decays.0 -
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »Stilll wondering if Akrasia had any joy finding out what the reason for the 1895 storm was that was different to the reason for this one.
Also note that 925-hPa temperature over Siberia was up to 8 degrees below average, as were northern Alaska and the Beaufort Sea.[IMG][/img]Gaoth Laidir wrote: »I'm still waiting on Akrasia to come up with his proof that the recent cold outbreak in the US was "caused by an almost ice-free Arctic (as stated categorically by a TV meteorologist on the ground there during it)" in that thread. Or indeed also that "something" that he said was probably responsible for the similar 1895 outbreak but not this time. Maybe he's just busy.
Jesus... :rolleyes:Gaoth Laidir wrote: »Ah, you're back. It's been a while. Now have you any news on that mystery factor that you claimed probably caused the 1895 Houston ice storm but which couldn't have caused this year's? Also, did you find any actual observational data to show how this year's event was caused by Arctic amplification, because that's what you said?
Sure while you're at it, any data to show that the Sidney [sic] flood is also due to agw, as implied?
Relax, he caught you fabricating the data in a graph like Donald Trump altering a hurricanes track with a sharpie marker and you were humiliated, we get it, but you brought it on yourself when you made up lies to support your climate change denial, what did you think was going to happen?0 -
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