Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
07-11-2018, 20:50   #31
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,395
So a max gust of 46 knots on 6th (Roches Point) leaves the 7th guesses in second place for now but they still have the edge with the 9th being closer to them than to anyone else.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(3) thanks from:
Advertisement
08-11-2018, 19:20   #32
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,395
After the first week of November ...

IMT on 8.1 C which is 0.3 below average.

MAX 16.3 and MIN --5.0

PRC 159% of normal, ranged from slightly below in west, to almost three times normal in southeast.

SUN 110% of normal (659/600).
M.T. Cranium is offline  
09-11-2018, 13:25   #33
John mac
Registered User
 
John mac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: 54n,9.1w ish 23M
Posts: 4,394
Max gust at roches point at 13:00 58 Kts
John mac is offline  
(3) thanks from:
10-11-2018, 12:10   #34
John mac
Registered User
 
John mac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: 54n,9.1w ish 23M
Posts: 4,394
Malin head and Sherkin both reported max gust of 59 Kts
John mac is offline  
(3) thanks from:
10-11-2018, 18:42   #35
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,395
Thanks for reporting those max gusts, I won't bother to update the tracker from a previous post until we get another event worth noting, but the people who picked the 7th are now in the lead for the timing. I suspect the event on the 3rd may hold as either second or third place now, although there could easily be two more events that exceed 47 knots. They would have to be two separate events and not two consecutive days from the same event.

I also noticed looking at yesterday's weather that every station in Ireland had over 10 mm of rain yesterday. We could easily see the month's normal rainfall in the first two weeks (in other words twice normal rainfall to that point).
M.T. Cranium is offline  
Advertisement
13-11-2018, 09:47   #36
Jpmarn
Registered User
 
Jpmarn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: SE outside Limerick City
Posts: 959
Looking at the charts it does look like that there will be only small amount of rain likely beyond the end of this week. It looks like there will be an anticyclone building from the east over next weekend and probably persist right to the end of the month. Some chance of the monthly max temperature being recorded either on Wednesday and Thursday.
Jpmarn is offline  
Thanks from:
13-11-2018, 21:59   #37
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,395
It has been a rather mild start to November, the second half looks equally cold and the net result will probably be close to normal for the month, like NormaL needs any more points.

As a rough guide to how mild, with respect to the CET for the net-weather contest (only temperature and precip there), I calculated some running means for November to the 16th and beyond, only eight years managed to stay 10.0 or higher (as I think this November will do) to the middle of the month, out of 246 in the daily data base. So if this were to be the ninth such year, that's about 3% of the years with this mild a first half (over there anyway, I find pretty close correlation most months). Other years that were running above 10.0 in the second half were 1817, 1818, 1852, 1938, 1978, 1994 and 2011.

I just checked the daily wind gust situation and past few days not quite able to match the top two we've had so far, perhaps today or tomorrow might do so. Unless we get a howling easterly near the end of the month we'll be holding on to see if any storms can break down the block that is apparently developing. Otherwise all three of the contenders might have come and gone by this weekend.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(3) thanks from:
13-11-2018, 21:59   #38
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,395
It has been a rather mild start to November, the second half looks equally cold and the net result will probably be close to normal for the month, like NormaL needs any more points.

As a rough guide to how mild, with respect to the CET for the net-weather contest (only temperature and precip there), I calculated some running means for November to the 16th and beyond, only eight years managed to stay 10.0 or higher (as I think this November will do) to the middle of the month, out of 246 in the daily data base. So if this were to be the ninth such year, that's about 3% of the years with this mild a first half (over there anyway, I find pretty close correlation most months). Other years that were running above 10.0 in the second half were 1817, 1818, 1852, 1938, 1978, 1994 and 2011.

I just checked the daily wind gust situation and past few days not quite able to match the top two we've had so far, perhaps today or tomorrow might do so. Unless we get a howling easterly near the end of the month we'll be holding on to see if any storms can break down the block that is apparently developing. Otherwise all three of the contenders might have come and gone by this weekend.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(4) thanks from:
13-11-2018, 23:43   #39
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Sligo 54.26N 8.46W 34M 111.5FT
Posts: 3,263
An average month can have a deeper story cant it

Im hoping for a howling Easterly or a Northerly gale to end month. Looks dry from Friday

Interesting weather in weeks ahead methinks.
pauldry is offline  
(2) thanks from:
Advertisement
Yesterday, 17:40   #40
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,395
Updates on the Bonus Wind Max Gust Forecasts and Actuals (updated to 14th)
____________________________________________________________

closest in terms of speed so far (59) __ 59 MrSkinner, 60 (Jpmarn, Artane2002, dasa29), 58 JCXBXC


DATE _ n __ forecasts

3rd ___ 6*__ 52 to 61 knots (actual was 47) (3rd)

7th ___ 3 __ 52 (sryanbruen), 60 (Artane2002) and 68 (Bsal) knots
9th __________ (actual was 59) (1st)

13th __ 1 __ 73 knots __ BLIZZARD7 (actual was 44) (see 14th)
14th __________ (actual was 53) (2nd)
15th __ 1 __ 72 knots __ dacogawa

17th __ 1 __ 58 knots __ JCXBXC

19th __ 1 __ 60 knots __ Dasa29

20th __ 1 __ 56 knots __ Rameire

21st __ 1 __ 64 knots __ Joe Public

22nd __ 1 __ 63 knots __ DOCARCH

23rd __

24th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ Tae laidir

25th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ John mac

26th __

27th __ 2 __ 65 (rikand) and 72 (waterways) knots

28th __

29th __ 2 __ 61 (kindred spirit) and 70 (M.T. Cranium) knots

30th __ 2 __ 60 (mickger844posts) and 75 (Pauldry) knots

_______________________________________________________

* The six who share forecasts on the 3rd are (from low to high forecast)

sunflower3 (52), Adam240610 (54), 200motels (56), MrSkinner (59), Jpmarn (60), sdanseo (61)

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; Today at 08:47. Reason: updating 14th data
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(2) thanks from:
Yesterday, 17:59   #41
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,395
I will be updating tomorrow for the second week. By the way, just noticed a gust to 50 knots today at Belmullet, possibly not the maximum for the day around the country, so that will upgrade 13th and 15th forecasts to shared second place while dropping the 3rd to third place.

The IMT was on 8.2 after 13 days and if today averages 12 as I would expect, then it will soar to 8.5. Could edge up or remain around that for two or three more days. If second half then averages 4, the outcome will be around 6.5 at end of the month.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(3) thanks from:
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet