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10-10-2018, 15:09   #31
M.T. Cranium
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Just for the record, Gurteen briefly took over the MAX yesterday (18.5) but as of 1400h several locations at 20 C. Our two warmest predictions are 21.5 (from me) and 20.6 from 200motels.

1500h reports include two at 21 C (Finner and Athenry).

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 10-10-2018 at 15:35.
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11-10-2018, 18:14   #32
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Finner has the new MAX at 21.1 C. If that holds, will require some boost from minimum progression but neither 200motels nor myself were close enough to apply the limiting factor (raw scores of 16 and 15).
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15-10-2018, 16:54   #33
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After two weeks ...

IMT on 11.7, the second week average was 12.7, which is 1.9 above the normal for the period. Fairly certain that will be back into the high 10s by our next check.

MAX is now 21.1 (10th, Finner) while the previous MIN was --0.3 at Mullingar on 7th, tied on 14th at Markree (-0.3) as originally posted. That was a morning low and not at midnight on the way down to something colder, but eventually there were three readings of 0 deg this past morning also at Markree, Mountdillon and Mullingar, will have to see if the -0.3 was lowered at any of those locations. (now done, new MIN is --0.5 at Mountdillon, the other two stayed slightly above freezing). -- edit -- this post got changed three times, first I thought I agreed with the next post about -1.2, then realized that was in September not on 7th October. On checking I found another minor error about which stations were in the running for 15th. This is now all fixed up, I hope.

PRC is now a little above average at 105% with this past week rather wet, all eleven locations above normal and the average 160%. If the weather ran dry to end of the month however, this only guarantees about 50% as October is quite a wet month generally. Not saying it will but the trends are somewhat below normal at least in the next week or so.

SUN has improved to 85.4% with this past week at 103.3% (620/600). This should continue to improve given the outlook and the rather low average sunshine values in mid to late October.

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16-10-2018, 00:21   #34
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Thought Mullingar got down to -1.2c on 7th October ...could be wrong though...who am I to say
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16-10-2018, 17:07   #35
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Confusion at first for me reading the above, but on further checking, that -1.2 was for the month of September and not registered on the 7th, that was -0.3.

So back to plan A, the new MIN is -0.5 on 15th at Mountdillon.

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18-10-2018, 06:50   #36
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--2 at Mountdillon, Mullingar, and MTC's back garden (true story, and it's only 11 p.m. here so ... )
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18-10-2018, 12:07   #37
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ogimet has -2.4c Mullingar so see if Mount Dillon beats that
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18-10-2018, 12:16   #38
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ogimet has -2.4c Mullingar so see if Mount Dillon beats that
https://twitter.com/MetEireann/statu...80801895985153
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18-10-2018, 17:22   #39
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Our highest sunshine forecast was 120% (Rikand) and our lowest precip forecast was 85% (three shared that, DOCARCH, 200motels and BLIZZARD7). The way things are unfolding, we could reach 135% sunshine and stay down around 70% precip (when I say we, I mean you, as my month looks like 200% sunshine and 10% precip at the rate we're going, one clear day after another for a week now and several more to come). I suspect the IMT will settle back to low 10s by end of month but should remain slightly above normal. MAX almost certainly settled and leads to some scoring boost from minimum progression. MIN of -2.5 might be as low as it goes but several more chances to lower that appear next week.

Will edit this post if some later model run suggests a change in outlook.
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22-10-2018, 18:27   #40
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Report after the third week (15th to 21st) ...

IMT on 11.0 with the past week at 9.6 (0.5 below normal). Current model output suggests this may fall to 9.7 at the end of the month.

MAX is now 21.1 and MIN is --2.5. The MAX is evidently set but MIN could go a bit lower.

PRC has fallen to 74% of normal with this past week quite dry at 22% of normal rainfall. This will likely stay around 75% to end the month with some chances for top up amounts after it falls as low as 60% by Thursday evening, looks about normal from there to 31st.

SUN now on the rise, average is 111.7% after the past week managed a healthy 164.3% (986/600). This should finish at least as high as its current value and perhaps a bit higher, thinking it will be 125% by Thursday, then possibly fall off slightly although you don't need a lot of sunshine in late October to maintain a normal amount.

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28-10-2018, 06:29   #41
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Gurteen was reporting -4 C overnight, at 0300h and 0400h. Some other locations have fallen to -2 C. The IMT is estimated to be 10.4 after the cold Saturday and will be around 10.2 after today, possibly 10.1 ... so it's almost sure to fall into the 9's now as Monday to Wednesday look quite chilly, perhaps 9.8 for a landing point.
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28-10-2018, 11:42   #42
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see -4.4c on Ogimet at Gurteen

So around 2c IMT for the day brrrrrr
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28-10-2018, 13:06   #43
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see -4.4c on Ogimet at Gurteen

So around 2c IMT for the day brrrrrr
Second coldest October day on record then in terms of daily mean back to 2008 at the station.



Data comes from Met Éireann.
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29-10-2018, 16:24   #44
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Report after four weeks ...

IMT was barely 10.1 (from 10.06) and looks set to end up around 9.6 now.

MAX remains 21.1 C.

MIN at Gurteen yesterday has been slightly revised to --4.5 C.

PRC now at 69% of normal with this past week only 23%. This may creep up slightly but likely won't reach 75%.

SUN has made it to 128.5% of normal now with this past week well above normal at 179.5% (1077/600) -- Cork reported an average of 7.2 hours a day and was 256%. That average for the 28 days guarantees an outcome above 116% but there may be rather little to add so it could end up closer to 120%.

Will post this and perhaps do some commenting on potential scoring soon as most of the values are going to be near the edges of our forecast ranges, then leave final scoring for when we know the bonus result and can confirm the actual values.
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30-10-2018, 15:25   #45
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Monday lows not quite a match for the MIN, Tuesday (today) I noted -4 C at Dublin so this could produce a rival for the --4.5 we currently have.

IMT after 29 days was 10.0 C even. Drop did not quite match the raw math (day averaged about 4 C, should have dropped 0.2) so might have been rounding issues at individual stations. Will see what it hits after today and report on that tomorrow.
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