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18-09-2018, 15:21   #1
DOCARCH
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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Autumn/Winter 2018/2019

A new thread for Autumn/Winter....surprised we got so far into September without one!

Anyway....

A few sparks showing up this afternoon in the midlands/north Offaly area.
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18-09-2018, 17:49   #2
Bsal
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Strong pileus or cap cloud formation about 30min ago near Swords

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18-09-2018, 17:56   #3
Ilyushin76
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Loads of activity of the west coast wonder will it make it as-far as land?
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18-09-2018, 20:08   #4
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Quite a lot of sferics showing up now in (off) Galway and Mayo. http://en.blitzortung.org/live_light...aps.php?map=12

Last edited by DOCARCH; 18-09-2018 at 20:26.
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18-09-2018, 20:10   #5
Oscar Bravo
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Anyone in Mayo, look out west. what a show!
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18-09-2018, 20:14   #6
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Intermittent thunder and lightning here in Achill for the past hour. Seems to be intensifying now as the wind increases.
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18-09-2018, 21:47   #7
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Blue flashes in north east Galway around Dunmore+ Glenamaddy, heavy hailstone showers afterwards, dying down abit now
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20-09-2018, 23:02   #8
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Heavy showers across Northern counties tomorrow some of which may become electrified.





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21-09-2018, 06:15   #9
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Just after driving to Shannon along motorway from Galway
Treated to an unexpected light show to the south west of Ardrahan and Gort
5 huge flashes over that stretch of the journey
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11-10-2018, 09:32   #10
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Fabulous convection displays to my S and SE
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11-10-2018, 13:20   #11
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https://www.netweather.tv/weather-fo.../uk/convective
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05-11-2018, 22:38   #12
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Some convective set up possible tomorrow , sporadic lightning a low possibility, maybe more so over water close to coasts , in the S, SE perhaps, low possibility later in the W ? Heavy rain again along the S tomorrow.





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05-11-2018, 22:39   #13
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Convective Weather.co.uk

Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 06 Nov 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 07 Nov 2018

ISSUED 21:25 UTC Mon 05 Nov 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

A complicated upper pattern exists on Tuesday, with an upper low over the Pyrenees weakening allowing elements of upper forcing to be drawn northwards across the British Isles on the forward side of the main Atlantic upper trough. At the same time, the next Atlantic upper trough will pivot such that it becomes more negatively-tilted as it crosses Biscay on Tuesday night into SW England by Wednesday morning.


Through Tuesday daytime, elements of elevated convection from mid-level instability release will produce some sporadic bursts of showery rain across some central and eastern parts of the British Isles - but similar to Monday, the risk of lightning is considered very low (below 5%), and hence no threat level has been issued.

A series of frontal zones will provide pulses of occasionally heavy rain northwards over Ireland and western Britain throughout this forecast period, which may produce some localised sporadic lightning, but the vast majority will probably remain lightning-free at this point.
The main interest is during Tuesday evening and night as stronger upper forcing approaches, overlapping warm, moist low-levels (and atop warm SSTs), helping to generate 400-700 J/kg CAPE. Cyclogenesis is also expected to occur close to or over SW England, encouraging a wrap-around occlusion to develop. Given this environment, an increase in lightning activity seems likely amongst a rather messy precipitation pattern. Strong gusts of wind and hail up to 1.5cm in diameter will be possible with the most intense cells, while an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. There is a risk of localised flooding where convergence zones develop across SW England and/or west Wales, providing prolonged heavy downpours.
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07-11-2018, 16:52   #14
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An interesting forecast for this evening and tonight.
A shortwave trough passes near to the south coast bringing a chance of organised convective cells with some sparodic lightning.
00z


03z



With both good deep and low level shear, some lined squall segments with hail is possible, even a weak funnel cloud.


Pity its due during the hours of darkness, however.



May set the alarm once or twice thought just to have a peak at the radar.
Attached Images
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File Type: png ll shear.png (165.4 KB, 820 views)
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07-11-2018, 19:04   #15
DOCARCH
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Quite a lot sferics south of Ireland atm, down towards Bay of Biscay.

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_light...aps.php?map=10
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