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07-11-2018, 08:23   #286
sryanbruen
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Is the model discussion thread up yet.
No, we’re still in Autumn and the FI thread combines Summer/Autumn this time around. Any long range models are posted here when appropriate.
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07-11-2018, 08:26   #287
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Sryanbruen what are your thoughts on the chances of some cold weather (ie. snowy weather ) happening before Christmas?
Will try and give a detailed response when possible, don’t have any strong thoughts on such happening, in fact quite the opposite. Sorry to sound like a Scrooge.

As for Christmas itself, that’s very random. Even in mild and or wet December’s, a white Christmas can occur. The whitest Christmas in the last 50 years in terms of snow falling in places was 2004 which was in an otherwise mild December and a forgettable Winter too. 1993 was another example in a mild and very wet December.
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07-11-2018, 10:53   #288
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Will try and give a detailed response when possible, don’t have any strong thoughts on such happening, in fact quite the opposite. Sorry to sound like a Scrooge.

As for Christmas itself, that’s very random. Even in mild and or wet December’s, a white Christmas can occur. The whitest Christmas in the last 50 years in terms of snow falling in places was 2004 which was in an otherwise mild December and a forgettable Winter too. 1993 was another example in a mild and very wet December.
ok, thanks Sryanbruen, not exactly what I wanted to hear but appreciate the response
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07-11-2018, 11:43   #289
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ok, thanks Sryanbruen, not exactly what I wanted to hear but appreciate the response
One year Leahyl... one year it'll all come together for us
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11-11-2018, 20:40   #290
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The Uk Met Office winter update suggests a lot of Northern blocking this winter
Let the games begin...

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11-11-2018, 20:45   #291
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The Uk Met Office winter update suggests a lot of Northern blocking this winter
Let the games begin...

Yaaay, love when I see there has been a post from Nacho Libre cos it usually means something positive regarding blocking or something :-P
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11-11-2018, 21:08   #292
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The Uk Met Office winter update suggests a lot of Northern blocking this winter
Let the games begin...
What's even better is that the model update was an ensemble mean... so that means a good few runs were even better (to be balanced though a smaller number of runs were probably not as good).
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11-11-2018, 21:11   #293
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What's even better is that the model update was an ensemble mean... so that means a good few runs were even better (to be balanced though a smaller number of runs were probably not as good).
Yes. Also this was encouraging to read:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topi...omment=3919899
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11-11-2018, 21:13   #294
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The Uk Met Office winter update suggests a lot of Northern blocking this winter
Let the games begin...

Link?
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11-11-2018, 21:39   #295
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Link?

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topi...omment=3919871
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11-11-2018, 22:13   #296
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Yes, the UKMO Glosea5 November update is absolutely mind blowing for this Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb), lots of northerly and easterly winds with a strong Greenland High which gets only stronger for the Jan-Feb-Mar period at the same time!

Usual caveats apply here as ever with long range forecasting though, just be aware!





Reminds me of December 2010.



Stratosphere signals are looking decent for future cold with some minor disruptions. Remember, a SSW is not required nor does it guarantee cold for us. Late 2010 did not have a SSW! The troposphere and stratosphere were just very nice to us in 2010.

As for Eurasian snow cover, my analogue of years similar to 2018 in this case looks very similar to December 2010 again and the UKMO Glosea5 above (December 2010 is in the analogue also)

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12-11-2018, 09:41   #297
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Well, certainly a new pattern has emerged across the model suites in the last 48 hours which is suggesting a cool down toward month's end. To my eye what I am seeing is the establishment of high pressure over southern scandanavia, which will lead to cool and foggy conditions for Ireland. As yet, this 'scandy high' as modelled is not a snow machine, or anything of the sorts, the high pressure cell is not sufficiently north and west in the model outputs for that. However, it is suggesting a major cooldown for continental europe, which will help in colder offerings to these climes down the line if the blocked theme establishes and continues. Winter synoptic watching is just about kicking off for me. From this point on i will be watching the outputs. Saddle up.
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12-11-2018, 10:54   #298
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Well, certainly a new pattern has emerged across the model suites in the last 48 hours which is suggesting a cool down toward month's end. To my eye what I am seeing is the establishment of high pressure over southern scandanavia, which will lead to cool and foggy conditions for Ireland. As yet, this 'scandy high' as modelled is not a snow machine, or anything of the sorts, the high pressure cell is not sufficiently north and west in the model outputs for that. However, it is suggesting a major cooldown for continental europe, which will help in colder offerings to these climes down the line if the blocked theme establishes and continues. Winter synoptic watching is just about kicking off for me. From this point on i will be watching the outputs. Saddle up.
Still plenty of time for it to kick off before Chirstmas though right?! A whiteout for Christmas would be nice.....thanks Santa
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12-11-2018, 11:11   #299
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Who knows, we could have a repeat of 8 years ago, but a lot of model watching to go, nothing certain.
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12-11-2018, 11:19   #300
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Good November snow really needs strong North/North Easterlies. It's not really until December that a continental easterly will deliver. At least the raging Atlantic seems to be gone on the charts!
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