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25-06-2009, 16:46   #61
jay28
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I'm heading to Ballymena tomorrow to a classic show, Im told the weather is going to be very bad, heavy rain most of the day, Is it that bad?
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25-06-2009, 17:01   #62
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Actually Ballymena might escape all of the bad weather.
It might end up quite sunny up there so I wouldn't worry.

However down here in Wicklow,late tonight could see thunderstorms amongst heavy showers and also in the morning spreading northwestwards from the south irish sea.
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25-06-2009, 19:28   #63
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Ok cool thanks for that, hope the thunder and rain stays down here!
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25-06-2009, 19:50   #64
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UPDATE _ 7:45 pm Thursday 25 June 2009
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I would agree that southeast Ireland will see the arrival of some heavy thundery showers around midnight that may persist for a good part of tonight, and may spread gradually to more south-central parts of Ireland. Meanwhile some other heavy showers are brushing past southwest Kerry and may make a bit more progress inland although the motion on these is mostly to the north.

As far as Friday goes, I expect that this activity will redevelop mainly over the south-central portions of Ireland but may extend to parts of the west, as well as redeveloping at times in the southeast as further waves of moisture arrive. The chances for rainfall are probably about 80% in the southeast, 60% in the central and south-central portions of Ireland, 40% around Dublin, trending down to about 20% in Ulster. For the western third it's about a 50-50 proposition. Amounts in general will be 5-15 mms where rainfall develops, with a few spots seeing 15-25 mms. Quite a few places may remain dry so the overall national average will be perhaps 3-4 mms.

Not much change to forecasts above for the weekend or beyond, it certainly looks unsettled at times on the weekend, and quite warm to hot on Monday and Tuesday, even Wednesday, before nature's air conditioner, the Atlantic, finally wakes up again much later in the week (and that could be pushed back in time as well).

I hope it rains where you want rain and stays dry where you don't. This is a tricky business especially when your neighbour wants rain and you don't.
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26-06-2009, 00:42   #65
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Alert for counties Wexford, south Wicklow and Carlow, Kilkenny, Waterford for intense thunder and lightning, locally heavy rainfalls to 50 mms, possible local flooding now to 0300h ... activity is drifting to the west north west at about 10-15 mph

This may extend a little further north and west before losing intensity later tonight. Will be assessing potential for tomorrow as more activity follows a similar path about 9-12 hours later.
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26-06-2009, 05:36   #66
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Friday, 26 June, 2009
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TODAY, some heavy and at times thundery showers will move across the southern two-thirds of Ireland from a generally southeast to northwest direction. Not all districts will get this heavy rainfall, but where it does occur amounts may reach 25 mms (one inch) or more, and there could be brief stream and urban flooding. Meanwhile, the northern parts of the country will be more likely to remain dry although some showers could develop there eventually. However, it won't be a complete washout by any means, after heavy showers move through, the sun could come out for a time and it will become very warm and very humid as a result -- and that could reload the atmosphere for further showers. A more organized complex of heavy thunderstorms could develop late in the day but I mention this in the "tonight" forecast. Today's highs will probably average out near 23 or 24 C except near the east coast which could stay closer to 19 or 20 C.

Watch for updates from me or other interested Boards members as the radar lights up. At the moment, the heavier rain is south and west of Dublin, moving towards the Midlands, and another band is moving inland from around Waterford towards south Tipperary. Later this morning the heavier rain is likely to be further west and then more clusters may move into the same areas or close to them.

TONIGHT will continue very warm and very humid (for night-time, that is) with lows only dropping to about 14 to 16 C. Many places will have mist or fog from earlier rain, but more heavy thundery showers could develop and move into the southeast in the evening, then spread across other parts of Ireland overnight. Watch for updates. These could be even heavier than last night's action which was reported to be quite intense around south Wicklow and Wexford.

SATURDAY will continue much the same, very warm, very humid, and thundery at times. Highs will reach 25 C or so, between the showers, in many places. It will feel pretty close to 30 C if the sun comes out for any length of time.

SUNDAY may be somewhat less unsettled but there is also the risk of a localized heavy thunderstorm complex in the southeast to start the day. Later on the day may produce more sunshine, very warm to hot temperatures that could reach 27 C or higher (after lows near 16 C) and humidex readings of about 31 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking very warm and humid -- if there are long intervals of sunshine it could reach 28 or even 30 C inland. But there will be some risk of heavy thundery rain at times as well, mainly in the central portions of the country. WEDNESDAY could see more organized thunderstorm development and it will remain very warm, to hot, and humid. LATER in the WEEK, it should cool off very slightly each day with showers and some sunny intervals, with decreasing humidity.

For those who are not weather forum regulars, may I suggest also that you visit our other threads like the thunderstorm thread and the current observations thread at the top of the page, to see more information about current storm activity etc. (I am not always here, virtually speaking).
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26-06-2009, 14:55   #67
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A large area of rain is pushing across the irish sea from wales right now.
Land fall probably north wicklow to louth including dublin is imminent.

Theres a narrow arm of the precip to follow that may hit south of that area.
Mainly rain but embedded thunderstorms are likely to feed in on its northern flank as they are in existance over wales at the moment.
Dublin may see some thunder.
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26-06-2009, 17:24   #68
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UPDATE _ Friday, 5:30 pm
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Heavy thundery showers are likely this evening across parts of Mayo. Some light rain is threatening to move into the Dublin region but may be intermittent for most of the evening before some heavier activity develops towards midnight. Will be watching this for potential development to affect a wider area of the east and southeast (currently the cells are over inland north Wales).

Looks like a fine evening for most in other parts of Ireland, enjoy your weekend as it unfolds.
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27-06-2009, 09:19   #69
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Saturday, 27 June, 2009
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TODAY, hazy sunshine should start to prevail over variable amounts of cloud later this morning in a generally warm southeasterly flow. Now it's the turn of Ulster to be more likely to see showers, although we can't rule out a few isolated thundery showers in the west-central parts of Ireland this afternoon and evening. Highs should reach about 24-25 C in most inland and west coast districts, near 18-20 C south coast and 19-22 C east coast.

TONIGHT will continue much the same, partly cloudy with a few isolated showers, and warm and muggy with lows of only 13-17 C.

SUNDAY should be similar except for perhaps the risk of some heavier thundery showers in the southwest as well as in the Belfast area of NI. It could be a degree or two warmer as well with highs possibly 25 to 27 C away from the slightly cooler east and south coasts.

MONDAY to THURSDAY the current indications are for a near-heat-wave situation, at least for central and inland eastern Ireland. The west coast may begin to see sporadic attacks of an offshore frontal band of cloud and showers from a distant although potent ocean storm near the Azores. This may serve to reduce the warmth about as far inland as Shannon (A) but the model indications point to potential for highs of 28 to 31 C in Ireland (as well as 29 to 33 C in southern England and 32 to 35 C in France) with some intervals of scorching sunshine when the variable amounts of cloud relent long enough. That cloud may keep some highs down around 25-27 C some of these days in a few spots, and the east and south coasts will be prone to slightly cooler readings in very weak sea breezes that form. Also, Ulster may be closer to a frontal band across Scotland (well I could say more than may be) and this could bring a few thundery showers at times but mainly north of Belfast in any case.

LATER NEXT WEEK, eventually this heat wave situation is likely to break down to a slight cooling trend from the southwesterly direction, but rather as suspected, this keeps getting pushed back a day at a time, which is the usual way the models have of telling us they don't really know when the blocking will break down so that the heat will dissipate.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the warm weather.
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28-06-2009, 05:12   #70
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Sunday, 28 June, 2009
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TODAY will bring some cloud with prolonged showers in the southwest, but it appears that this will not move too much further into the rest of Ireland, where skies should remain partly cloudy with some hazy sunshine at times, with warm conditions inland and to the northwest coast. Under the cloud in Kerry, Cork, possibly west Limerick and south Clare, it may remain 20-22 C most of the afternoon. Further east and north highs should be 24 to 27 C except for readings closer to 20 C near the other south coast districts and around to the east coast. Ulster (mostly NI north of Belfast) may see thundery showers at times, but these can't be entirely ruled out anywhere else by afternoon.

TONIGHT the showers in the southwest should begin to break up and remnants may move across the northwest before ending. Other districts should be largely dry if mostly cloudy with mist developing, as it remains warm and close with lows of 12-15 C.

MONDAY will see similar conditions as another area of rain begins to move slowly into the southwest, becoming heavy at times by evening there. This may become associated with some more widespread thundery showers after a mostly dry day with hazy sunshine at times, and warm highs of 24 to 28 C inland, 19-22 C around the coastal districts.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY at the moment looks like being very warm to locally hot with any prolonged sunny intervals bringing temperatures up towards 30 C inland, but the big question is whether or not cloud will be extensive enough to hold down these temperatures to about 25-27 C much of the time. I currently think it will be a mixed bag with some places managing to reach 29 or 30 while others are held down to 25-27, so from this distance I would say to expect very warm conditions but not to count on it being "hot" as such, although in some places it may be. A few thundery showers are probably inevitable but Tuesday will certainly bring a more organized band of them in western districts before the ocean storm finally rotates further away from Ireland.

LATER in the WEEK it should begin to cool back to the lower 20s again, with some thundery showers at times.
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28-06-2009, 15:27   #71
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UPDATE _ 3:30 pm Sunday
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Showery rains across the southwest have now been joined by a generally lighter band of rain extending from about Wexford to Galway across parts of central Ireland. This entire frontal band appears to be slowly weakening and the general motion on it should be more northwesterly by this evening, so that some parts of eastern Ireland as well as Donegal and other northern counties may remain dry, with the exception of some parts of NI where thundery showers could develop in a separate cluster later on.

Looking down the road, the emphasis for Tuesday should probably be more to widely scattered heavy thundery showers with the second onslaught of the offshore frontal systems, as the latest guidance in particular shows quite a strong push of moisture into the warm air mass in place.

Looking quite thundery for the end of the very warm spell on late Thursday as well ... quite possibly for some, this warm spell or heat wave will be more of a heavy rainfall event (but locally, not on a large scale). However, looking at the current situation, I don't believe there is much more than an additional 5 mms of rain to come for most of the southwest, possibly 10 at the most.
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28-06-2009, 22:13   #72
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Things are really hotting up over in the uk. The goverment has issued a heatwave warning with tempetures reaching 34 degrees by Wednesday and falling back to around 20 degrees in the night. The rte 5 day weather chart showed 18 degrees for the rest of the week. Can we trust this to be accurate? I don't think we are going to see tempetures reach the high 20s or low 30s. I would love to see a good thunderstorm as we have not had one down here for awhile.
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29-06-2009, 07:25   #73
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Monday, 29 June, 2009
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Well I'm pretty sure it will be warmer than 18, but as for 29 or 30, that will require a lot of sunshine which could be the case on Wednesday in particular, so we'll have to see ... this is my outlook as of the latest guidance.

TODAY will be generally dry until an area of heavy showers arrives in the southwest this evening. There could be an isolated thundershower somewhere in central Ireland perhaps, but most places will see some hazy sunshine (once the low cloud or fog burn off in some cases), and highs should reach about 22-25 C inland as well as west coast, 18 to 21 C east and south coasts, and near 21 C in most of Ulster and Donegal.

TONIGHT periods of heavy, possibly thundery rain will develop and spread over at least the western and central two-thirds of Ireland, some parts of the east may escape at least until near daybreak. Lows will be 12-15 C. Winds on the south and southwest coasts will increase to SE 30-40 mph, but other parts of Ireland will only see a slight increase in the SE breeze.

TUESDAY the heavy thundery showers (giving total rainfalls of 25-40 mms in some places by mid-day) will slowly break up to more isolated thundershowers with a generally northward drift of the activity, and by afternoon it may become partly sunny again, very hazy and quite humid, with highs of about 22-25 C (possibly to 27 C in a few spots).

WEDNESDAY currently looks like being the warmest day of the week with more frequent sunny intervals, still the risk of a thundershower, and highs of about 25 to 28 C, still could touch 30 C in one or two places if there's enough sunshine, but the pattern does look somewhat humid for that.

THURSDAY is looking more stormy again with the first of two cold fronts likely to make slow progress west to east through Ireland, bringing some very heavy showers and thunderstorms, as it remains quite warm and humid, with highs of 22 to 25 C. (morning lows 14-16 C)

FRIDAY should bring an interval of clearing and somewhat less humid weather followed by another round of showers and thunderstorms, with highs near 21 to 23 C. (morning lows 13-15 C)

THE WEEKEND at this point looks less humid and quite breezy with highs closer to 19 or 20 C, with some showers thrown in.
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29-06-2009, 18:45   #74
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UPDATE _ Monday 29/06 at 6:45 pm
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Keeping a close watch on developments to the southwest where ocean buoy K1 (located around 49 N 13 W) recently reports sustained winds at 27 kts and satellite imagery suggests thundery showers developing. A nearby ship report confirms a strong pressure gradient in the vicinity.

Expect this cluster of moderate to heavy showers with 30-40 mph winds to sweep through coastal waters west of Ireland tonight possibly impacting on land in Kerry, Cork and coastal Limerick and Clare between midnight and about 0400h, then slowly moving north to affect Galway and Mayo later tonight. Rainfalls of 25-40 mms are possible with this. Looks at present as though rain amounts and wind speeds will drop off fairly steadily to much lower values in eastern Ireland as this rotates around towards Iceland overnight and tomorrow morning. Will update around 11 pm.
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30-06-2009, 05:37   #75
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Tuesday, 30 June, 2009
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TODAY will feature some heavy showers across much of Ireland although it should start out dry in the east and north and stay partly cloudy to about mid-day, then overcast but dry before the rain finally arrives perhaps as thundery showers at first. In areas that start the day wet, there is some hope of a gradual drying trend after mid-day but the wettest areas may be from about Waterford northwest to Galway as the showers will move through there at their peak around 2-3 pm. Highs will range from 24 C in some areas inland northwest of Dublin and into parts of Ulster, to about 19 C in the south coast and some west coast districts. Winds will be moderate from the southeast in the coastal areas and possibly around any heavy thunderstorms inland later on. It will be very humid everywhere and this will make it feel even warmer. Watch for updates on any storm developments.

TONIGHT much of the showery rain will dissipate to mist and fog as the south prepares for another batch of heavy thundery showers moving up from the Biscay region and arriving around midnight. These will probably move gradually north and a little northwest at times, to cover the western half of the country by Wednesday morning. Lows will be generally quite warm and close, at 14-17 C.

WEDNESDAY is looking rather unsettled but any intervals of sunshine will send temperatures quickly up into the mid or even high 20s, and it will be very humid, so there is some chance of torrential thundery showers developing especially in west-central regions. Highs should vary from about 25-27 C in some eastern districts, to 19-23 C in the cloudier west.

THURSDAY will also have some brief sunny intervals as heavy showers and thunderstorms redevelop over western sections and move gradually east. It will be warm and humid again with highs of about 25 C in some parts, following morning lows near 15 C.

FRIDAY will see yet another push of heavy showers and thunderstorms through the country from west to east, this time possibly severe in places, as the warm spell ends with a bang -- much cooler air seems to be developing for the weekend. Highs on Friday will be about 22 C.

SATURDAY currently looks breezy and quite a bit cooler with passing showers, winds SW to W at 20-35 mph, and highs of about 17 C (possibly closer to 14 C in the northwest).

SUNDAY will then be fresh and rather cool with variable amounts of cloud, passing showers, and strong west to northwest winds of 25-40 mph.

Note: travelling to London or southeast England in general, expect hot conditions, could be 32-33 C in places today and tomorrow.
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