Monday, 29 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
The latest guidance for the potential storm at the end of the week is slowing down its arrival somewhat to Saturday morning, although it may be quite windy for most of Friday before it arrives in full force. This situation is by no means "carved in stone" yet since we're dealing with a very distant hurricane (Oscar) that may continue to challenge the forecast models as it has been doing for the past 24 hours. For a while, the model consensus shifted away from Oscar making it all the way to the main westerlies in time, and showed it backing away to the south again. If that were to happen, a separate weather system would still bring some strong winds to Ireland around Friday or early Saturday. But this morning the theme has returned to a gradual approach of the hurricane's remnant low towards west coast counties of Ireland Friday night, with closest approach and strongest winds now most likely to occur on Saturday morning.
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, some light rain in western counties, staying dry much of the time in central and eastern counties although some patchy drizzle is possible. Caution is advised in north central counties this morning for patchy black ice conditions on some side roads, as temperatures are near -2 C in some areas. Eventually today's highs will reach about 7 C in the east and 10 C in the west, with generally light south winds near the west coast and easterly breezes elsewhere.
TONIGHT ... Cloud with some clear spells, lows -2 to +4 C. Occasional drizzle may continue near west coast which will be the mildest region.
TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, some outbreaks of light rain mostly near west and south coasts, highs 7 to 10 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, lows -2 to +3 C, highs 7 to 10 C.
THURSDAY ... Some rain at times, lows -1 to +4 C and highs 7 to 11 C.
FRIDAY ... Becoming windy, with rain at times, winds will depend on how intense the approaching low turns out to be, likely to be increasing gradually to 70 km/hr by late afternoon or evening from south to southwest. Highs near 11 C.
SATURDAY ... At this point, the stormy conditions are most likely to hit around sunrise on Saturday with gale to storm force southwest winds quite possible (this to be confirmed later in the week). Gusts to at least 110 km/hr appear quite possible, and highs near 10 C but turning colder again later in the day, with rain turning to mixed wintry showers in strong westerly winds and falling temperatures.
OUTLOOK ... Fast moving disturbances will bring further bouts of rain and wind for several days after the storm (Oscar if the hurricane remnant low is involved, possibly named Deirdre if not, but that name may be needed soon afterwards if the weekend low is indeed Oscar. Temperatures will average rather cold for mid-November but each passing low could bring in a few hours of milder temperatures 8 to 10 C, otherwise it will be in the 3 to 7 C range much of the time, so precipitation could be sleety or mixed wintry showers on higher ground.
My local weather on Sunday was overcast with periods of rain and highs near 10 C.