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13-06-2009, 19:26   #31
M.T. Cranium
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Thanks, I hope you won't be offended that I had to look up the location of Moate (and I found it too) although I guessed it was central from your comment. Just a quick update, radar certainly shows an area of very heavy and no doubt thundery rain near Thurles moving in the general direction of Tullamore and further northeast this evening, so if you're in that part of the country, expect about an inch of rain. At the moment, it looks as though Dublin and the southeast should remain dry at least until near midnight if not longer, as this heavier rain keeps tracking northeast towards Ulster and only the odd rogue shower seems likely further east, although they have come and gone a few times, but nothing substantial. Meanwhile to the west of the main band of rainfall it is likely to become misty and then locally foggy quite readily as humidity levels are high after earlier showers.
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14-06-2009, 05:21   #32
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Sunday, 14 June, 2009
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TODAY will start out showery in eastern Ireland (added at 0645, some of this rain could become heavy and thundery over Wexford and Wicklow), and hazy but dry further west. Later in the day, the eastern showers will give way to hazy sunshine and warm conditions, while more showers and thundershowers move into the west (from about 0800 in Galway). These will eventually move across the country by evening to give a second round of rainfall in the east. Highs will be about 21 C inland, and 16 C near the west coast, and in most of Donegal and Ulster.

TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy, with more showers, and mist or fog becoming widespread. It will be warm and close, with lows of about 12 to 14 C for most places.

MONDAY looks very unsettled with frequent showers and the risk of a heavier thunderstorm. Highs will be about 18 C although closer to 14 C in some northern parts.

TUESDAY should see some longer sunny intervals and it will remain rather warm (the Monday low has no cooler air mass following it) and still rather humid, with highs of about 19-21 C, following a morning low of about 11 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY look partly cloudy with showers and moderate westerly breezes, highs of about 20 or 21 C.

FRIDAY may bring somewhat drier conditions with a slight drop in temperature and humidity, highs near 18 C.

So far, it does appear that the forecast of a warmer summer is holding true, although perhaps the bar was set pretty low by 2007 and 2008.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 14-06-2009 at 06:46. Reason: updating for heavy rain potential
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15-06-2009, 06:25   #33
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Monday, 15 June, 2009
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Alert for heavy, locally flooding rainfall 25-50 mms (1-2 inches) and local hail most likely in eastern Ireland this morning and then across southern districts mid-day in a second wave of showers

TODAY will bring some heavy, thundery showers that may produce flooding rainfalls and hail at times. The heaviest cluster at present is around Laois to Waterford, moving towards the southeast and Dublin later this morning. Although it could clear briefly behind this activity, more will develop and the southwest to south central districts may get hail at times by mid-day. The northern half of the country will also have some scattered heavy showers but rainfall amounts should be generally less. There could also be some longer sunny intervals in Mayo, Sligo and Donegal. Highs today will generally be close to 18 C.

TONIGHT will see the showers ending, to be followed by partly cloudy skies and widespread mist or fog especially where rainfalls earlier prove to be heavy, lows will be 9 to 11 C.

TUESDAY should produce some sunshine especially late morning and mid-day, then increasing cloud, with periods of rain possible by evening. Highs will be 19 to 21 C, except 14-16 C in the northwest coastal districts.

WEDNESDAY will be breezy and rather warm with continued showers, a few thundershowers, but also sunny intervals, lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C.

THURSDAY will be a bit cooler, otherwise similar, partly cloudy, breezy with more showers, heavy in some western districts at times. Lows of about 9 C will be followed by highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY should see some improvements to partly sunny conditions, and highs of about 18 C.

NEXT WEEKEND is looking quite warm, a little unsettled but showers in the west and north mainly, and highs of about 20 to 22 C inland.

I will try to update the severe weather potential from time to time, but if any of the regular weather crew happen to look in and think we need an update as the storms develop, please post one ... thanks.
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16-06-2009, 06:53   #34
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Tuesday, 16 June, 2009
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The unsettled weather (which was mainly in the south) is long gone now, and a weak ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather and, away from the cooling influence of the 14 C sea waters, quite warm today ... I reviewed the latest model runs, and the official forecasts, and didn't find much that I wanted to change from yesterday's forecasts starting with today; I just added some details:

TODAY should produce some sunshine especially by later this morning and mid-day, then increasing cloud, with periods of rain possible by evening. Highs will be 19 to 21 C, except 14-16 C in the northwest coastal districts. Winds will pick up to southerly 20-30 knots over south coast waters and the southwest (40 knots in a few very open stretches) but for most people on land, 10-20 mph will be about the strongest winds later on after quite a calm morning. Any fog will tend to linger to about 0900 in some valleys.

TONIGHT will be mild with a steady rainfall of 10-20 mms in almost all parts of Ireland. This should gradually end in the west before sunrise, but will be continuing into the morning in the east.

WEDNESDAY will be breezy and rather warm with continued showers, a few thundershowers, but also sunny intervals developing, lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C, as winds swing around to WSW 20-35 knots over the west coast and south coast, but 15-25 mph over land.

THURSDAY will be a bit cooler, otherwise similar, partly cloudy, breezy from about due west, with more showers, heavy in some western districts at times. Lows of about 7-9 C will be followed by highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY should see some improvements to partly sunny conditions, lows near 7 C, and highs of about 18 C.

NEXT WEEKEND is looking quite warm, a little unsettled for some, but showers in the west and north mainly, and highs of about 20 to 22 C inland, possibly touching 24 if the sunshine is strong enough.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 16-06-2009 at 23:36.
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17-06-2009, 05:51   #35
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Wednesday, 17 June, 2009
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Alert issued for locally heavy and flooding rainfalls across the southern two-thirds of Ireland, ending soon in the west but lasting to mid-day in some eastern sections. Amounts of 30-50 mms could produce some flooding.

TODAY will bring periods of heavy rain moving rather slowly across the country this morning, ending about 0900 in the southwest and up the west coast, but persisting to about 1100-1200 or so in the east. This rain is coming down hard enough to suggest 30-50 mms could fall in some places and lead to some flooding problems. There could be some thunder with it at times especially as it reaches the southeast. Once this moves through, a rapid improvement can be expected on strong SW breezes, some sunny intervals, quite warm near 20-21 C away from the west coast (15 C there), and just a few isolated showers re-developing later on mainly in areas like Mayo and Donegal.

TONIGHT will be generally dry and partly cloudy with a strong SW breeze although trending towards gale force westerly winds around Belmullet and the northwest coast. There could be an isolated shower, and lows will reach about 11 C in most places, 8 C in a few inland portions of the northwest.

THURSDAY will also be quite breezy to windy in the north, from a westerly direction, with passing showers, one or two thundery with hail, mainly over the western and northern parts of Ireland, and a bit cooler than recent days with highs of 15-17 C.

FRIDAY will start out rather cloudy and progress to partly sunny conditions in a strong westerly breeze (NW at times in the morning), and if there are any showers early on, these should be light and quite brief (Ulster would be the most likely place for these). Lows of about 6-9 C will be followed by highs of about 15-17 C.

THE WEEKEND is looking quite fine from this distance out, there is a slight risk of showers in the far north but even there, the chances of dry weather are higher, and it could be sunny most of the time both days in the south and even the central parts of Ireland. Highs will be around 21 or 22 C inland and could even reach 24 C on Sunday.

And next week also looks quite good with a warm southeast wind returning like the beginning of June, although perhaps not that hot, and mainly dry weather indicated for several days.
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17-06-2009, 18:25   #36
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UPDATE _ 6:30 pm on 17 June
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Looks to be ideal for rainbows to form in the skies over Galway, Mayo and some other parts of western Ireland this evening, as "splash and dash" showers come and go in partly cloudy skies. For most other areas, a relatively dry if breezy evening ahead. You could see five minutes of light rain from one passing shower, outside of the areas mentioned.
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18-06-2009, 06:50   #37
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Thursday, 18 June, 2009
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TODAY will start out mostly cloudy with the best chance for brief sunny intervals in the southeast and in Donegal, as most of the country in between will be under a slow-moving band of cloud that is dropping light rain here and there, nothing very substantial, 2-3 mms at most. Some of these showers could become heavier by mid-day, but meanwhile another batch of thundery showers will be moving into western districts from the Atlantic. By mid-day and afternoon it will be quite breezy (windy in fact for Connacht) and highs will reach about 16 or 17 C. Winds for most districts will be in the range of 20-30 mph but the northwest coast could see gusts to 40 knots or almost 50 mph, all of these from about due west. Winds will be veering slowly from WSW to WNW for those venturing out onto the water today.

TONIGHT will continue quite breezy or even windy with more showers or local drizzle from hill fog, as low cloud will tend to dominate. Lows will be about 6 to 8 C, and winds will be around towards NW at 25-40 mph. Some east coast locations could have some clear intervals though.

FRIDAY will be a slowly improving day, as the low cloud and strong winds move away towards Scotland and northern England during the morning, to leave a mixture of cloud and sunshine, and less gusty winds from a more westerly direction again, with highs of about 17 C.

SATURDAY should be fine, as long as any west coast fog or low cloud stays near the coast or out over the near Atlantic, if not, some of the western third of the country could have a rather cloudy morning, but sunshine should begin to break through there eventually, and the rest of the country is likely to be at least partly sunny, with warming temperatures, after a rather cool overnight low of 5-8 C ... highs could be close to 21 C or even a touch higher away from the sea breeze zone (15-17 C there). Winds may still be a little breezy in Donegal and other parts of the north, from the SW, but further south it will be rather calm.

SUNDAY looks even better, as high pressure builds over the British Isles from the Azores. Highs will be 22-24 C inland, and near 18 C in most coastal locations, with hazy sunshine for most. There could be more cloud further north at times, from sea fog blowing inland.

NEXT WEEK still looks quite warm and mainly dry, although some research of mine tells me that around Tuesday there could be a bit of an active trough developing in the warm air, leading to isolated storms. Other than that, it should generally be a case of light winds to start, and very warm southeast winds with the usual cooler sea breeze zones later in the week, as highs may stay in the lower to mid 20s. There are even indications of hot weather to follow by about the next weekend.
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19-06-2009, 05:26   #38
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Friday, 19 June, 2009
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TODAY will feature some longer sunny intervals in eastern and southern districts, but there will still be a rather cloudy flow coming into western and northern districts most of the day, with passing showers. The morning will be quite breezy especially in the north, expect winds to be WNW 20-30 mph on land and 30-40 knots on the open Atlantic, then it should ease to W 15-25 later on. Highs today should be about 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will have some longer clear intervals with another area of low cloud and drizzle moving into the northwest after midnight. Lows will be around 6 or 7 C in many parts, closer to 10 C near the west and south coasts.

SATURDAY could be quite a mixed bag, in the northwest and possibly further south there will be extensive morning low cloud and drizzle before any clearing sets in. Further south, the sun may break through more frequently and set up for a sunny afternoon, but at the same time, south coast locations could remain foggy. Highs will range from about 14 C in the northwest to 19 or 20 C in the southeast.

SUNDAY looks more likely to produce a fine day of sunshine and warm temperatures. There is some risk of low cloud or fog near some coasts due to light sea-breeze conditions, but anywhere else inland should be sunny and warm with highs of about 22 C.

NEXT WEEK should be generally warm and dry with highs in the range of 22 to 25 C inland, near 18 C in coastal locations.

I may post an update if the uncertainties around Saturday's forecast seems to be reducing. And feel free to add your own thoughts at any time, as I was hoping this would be a community effort.
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19-06-2009, 10:05   #39
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Friday, 19 June, 2009
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And feel free to add your own thoughts at any time, as I was hoping this would be a community effort.
Very hard to add anything (not that I have any great knowledge) to a very good and fairly precise forecast. Hoever with an average of 130 page views per day you can be sure its appreciated by many.
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19-06-2009, 10:21   #40
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Thanls again M.T.Yesterday you were saying there was a chance of an unstable area on Tuesday which might produce a storm .Is this chance gone for now

cheers
Paul
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19-06-2009, 10:23   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darc View Post
Very hard to add anything (not that I have any great knowledge) to a very good and fairly precise forecast. Hoever with an average of 130 page views per day you can be sure its appreciated by many.
Indeed Ill second that!!
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19-06-2009, 11:45   #42
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Originally Posted by darc View Post
Very hard to add anything (not that I have any great knowledge) to a very good and fairly precise forecast. Hoever with an average of 130 page views per day you can be sure its appreciated by many.
I'll echo this....

I find myself using this more than any other weather website..

Thanks for your great work M.T...
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19-06-2009, 15:28   #43
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This is the first page i look at ever morning.
Now i have all my work mates checking it out too . Very accurate forecast.
I have used it for the last few weeks to carry out and plan all my farming activities. Worked a treat.

Now im off to cut the hay!!
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19-06-2009, 17:20   #44
M.T. Cranium
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Thanks, and by the way, Tuesday or thereabouts could still produce an isolated storm in a generally dry and warm pattern. Perhaps there will be better indications by Monday or so as to where and when. Something in my research says, basically, if any storms develop at this time, they can be heavy. But if there's no storm potential, then somebody else will get that where they have potential. That's where that stands.

Just also wanted to comment, I'm glad people are getting some use out of these forecasts and at this point, it's no doubt worth mentioning that the day will come (these things are inevitable) when readers are going to say, that MTC, he really blew the forecast for such and such etc, and so I just thought I would mention that before it actually happens, because you just know it will ... the main advantage we have here is that this forecast does not have to fit a prescribed format, length or even timing considerations, because I have to say this, the "official forecast" is often more or less the same but perhaps having a bit of extra space for details, this forecast here can be fleshed out and given some extra details. It hasn't been my experience that these are different forecasts as to the basic content, of course I am not hearing all the media forecasts that you have there, only reading what's on the met.ie website (and just to be bold, usually after I make a forecast here), but if they ever sound that way, it could be for that reason. And I do continue to hope that some of the other Weather forum crew will step in from time to time, for one thing, I may disappear for a couple of weeks in late July and early August, so I will try to arrange for continuity there. Also it's wise to have a few different views in some situations, anyone can get stuck on a wrong idea from time to time (a classic example, my decision to visit Ireland at this time of year in 1978).

Anyway, cheers, tomorrow still looks a bit iffy in the north but it may not be too bad a day at all in much of Ireland, just perhaps cloudy to start, as the high is going to build in rather gradually over the weekend. This weak frontal system that has forecasters concerned is sliding along at a latitude about equal to Donegal at the moment and not making too great a southward push as it comes nearer, so it's going to be a case of how much low cloud pushes inland with this, and how long it takes to break up during the day.
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20-06-2009, 07:09   #45
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Saturday, 20 June, 2009
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A decidedly tough forecast for this weekend, as warmer air tries to move into Ireland, but taking a route over the cool Atlantic as pressures slowly rise, seems like a recipe for widespread low cloud and drizzle in the west and north, fog along the south coast, but fairly good chances for sunshine nevertheless in central and eastern Ireland.

TODAY will likely start out quite dull and misty in most parts, brightening slowly in the east and some central districts to some pleasantly warm sunny intervals this afternoon, with highs of 18-21 C. However, the western third and also the northern third of the country will be prone to longer periods of low cloud, drizzle and hill fog, with highs closer to 15 or 16 C, and the south coast could be socked in by dense fog at times to about 5-10 miles inland.

TONIGHT will likely remain rather cloudy and misty with further outbreaks of drizzle or light rain affecting mainly the west and northwest. Lows will be about 9 to 12 C.

SUNDAY will be broadly similar to today only for the chance of longer sunny intervals and slightly warmer temperatures in most places, about 16-17 C in the cloudier west, and 20-22 C in the sunnier east, however, I should stress that I am an incurable optimist even for other peoples' weather, especially on weekends, so anywhere near a coastline it could be rather foggy for long intervals.

MONDAY looks warmer for most as the marine influence is restricted more to the south coast in a developing light SE wind, so that larger sections of Ireland should enjoy sunshine and highs above 22 C, but there is likely to be dense fog near the south coast drifting some distance inland at times, and this will be accompanied by temperatures closer to 15 C.

TUESDAY should be very warm with long sunny intervals, but isolated thundershowers most likely in the Midlands, and highs near 24 C inland, 18 C near the east and south coasts.

THE REST OF THE WEEK will remain quite warm and mostly dry with fairly strong sea breezes cooling the east and south coasts. Highs inland and in western districts should be into the 24-26 C range while the east coast is likely to remain closer to 18-20 C. This warm spell has no immediate end according to the latest model runs.

Have a pleasant weekend, and keep your fingers crossed for sunshine.
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