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28-10-2018, 16:58   #616
Artane2002
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Originally Posted by sryanbruen View Post
Yes, each of the models, GFS, ECM, GEM and UKMO, showing a deep area of low pressure directly over Ireland next Saturday in one way or another. ECM 0z was the deepest out of the 4 but it was revealed as a big outlier in its ensembles.
Wow, the GFS is looks like it has the least deepest low for once . One to keep an eye on.

Last edited by Artane2002; 28-10-2018 at 18:12.
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28-10-2018, 19:40   #617
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ECM has the remnants of Oscar ( or a part of it phased with an area of LP ) further off the W coast keeping strongest winds out to sea, windy on coasts on this run.

GFS has it deepening after it passes Ireland and a second area of LP deepening also after it passes over Ireland .

GEM shows centre of LP near NW Ireland and producing strong winds.

UKMO showing very deep over Ireland ( deepening on its approach ).

ICON showing similar to the GEM and producing very strong winds.

So a large spread on possible outcomes from the near miss to direct hit producing very strong winds so lots more runs to get a more clear picture.


UKMO 961 hPa , ICON 961 hPa , ECMWF 968 hPa, GEM 973 hPa, GFS 985 W coast of Ireland / 980 hPa Center of Ire / 977 hPa off NE

EDIT: ECM has the Storm center come in from the NW and pass over the N of the country . Initially 968 hPa and 977 hPa over the N before heading up over Scotland. Fishy looking track on this run.

Last edited by Meteorite58; 28-10-2018 at 20:22.
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28-10-2018, 20:04   #618
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Time to put a few of these to keep an eye on this.







NHC

Oscar turned abruptly westward earlier this morning, and the initial
motion estimate is now 270/10 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast
to continue moving generally westward for another 12 to 24 h on the
south side of a mid-layer ridge over the northern central Atlantic.
Oscar should then turn toward the north between the ridge and a
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. By Wednesday, the
cyclone is expected to accelerate north-northeastward or
northeastward as it becomes embedded in deep-layer southwesterly
flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. All of the global models
agree on this general scenario, though there are differences
regarding the exact timing that Oscar will begin its recurvature
and how quickly it will accelerate across the northern Atlantic.
That said, the track consensus aids have changed very little, and no
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 25.5N 53.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 25.6N 55.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 26.2N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 27.3N 58.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 29.3N 57.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 37.1N 51.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 45.5N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 53.0N 22.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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29-10-2018, 11:05   #619
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GFS has moved the potential storm further out W keeping the strongest winds offshore but the ECMWF, UKMO and ICON have it tracking close and showing strong winds for Ireland. GEM not showing it develop much over Ireland .

At this stage the general theme is for some heavy if not very heavy rain over the weekend and possibly into the following week.

Potential for very unsettled wet and windy weather over the weekend.

The NHC have mentioned inconsistencies in track of Oscar in its latter stages so there is still a lot of uncertainty on how this might impact Ireland ( if it does at all ) at the end of the week.







850 hPa winds







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30-10-2018, 02:25   #620
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Impressive Scandi High showing up at the end of tonight's ECM run - expect the models to be in flux for the next several days though until we get a proper handle on Oscar. As we saw with Hurricane Chris earlier this year, when there's an ex-Hurricane in the mix, the models can go a bit haywire in our part of the world for a few days until its track is resolved.


Last edited by hatrickpatrick; 30-10-2018 at 02:28.
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30-10-2018, 10:14   #621
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Yes ECM 0z at +240 hrs was amazing with blocking highs taking over the pattern and if we were to roll on another few hours or days, we would likely find the low pressure sinking southwards into the Mediterranean giving us easterly winds which would be very cold in November.

However, I will remain skeptical until I see all models picking up on this and it being within the "somewhat" reliable 5-day timeframe. ECM is on its own here, for now.

GEM at +240 hrs was fairly similar but Scandi High was much weaker and pressure was higher over the Mediterranean than on the ECM 0z.
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01-11-2018, 12:30   #622
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Lp's coming in off the Atlantic looks like the theme well out to if not past +240hrs.

Looks like November weather all right.








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01-11-2018, 15:52   #623
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Not sure if this would be the correct thread to post this in, or even if it is of interest to most on here, but the ECMWF 06z & 18z runs are now available on the 'WeatherModels' site (which is subscription based - about 10 Euro a month for 'personal use') but perhaps might become available on their publically available 'Weather.US' site soon? I don't know.

Here is an example. The 'precipitable water' forecast charts for 00z Monday from both the 00z run and the 06z run. Definitely subtle differences.




So far, it would seem both the 06z and 18z runs only go out as far as 144hrs, and seem to be released at a slower rate than the main 00z and 12z runs.
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02-11-2018, 22:40   #624
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http://www.severe-weather.eu/tropica...end-nov-3-4th/



http://www.severe-weather.eu

Not sure if this site has been posted or where it should go if not!
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08-11-2018, 00:26   #625
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Entering a S to SW airflow next week, looks to become milder by midweek for a possible few days air sourced from the subtropics perhaps, charts showing temps could reach low to mid teens up to maybe Fri or so.

No doubt rain a feature.







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08-11-2018, 00:32   #626
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meteorite58 View Post
Entering a S to SW airflow next week, looks to become milder by midweek for a possible few days air sourced from the subtropics perhaps, charts showing temps could reach low to mid teens up to maybe Fri or so.

No doubt rain a feature.







Lovely and mild great. All this nonsense about easterlies and cold now can wait until December.
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08-11-2018, 20:08   #627
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Looks like some sort of easterly HP is in the offing, no doubt it'll be too far east for us and we'll end up with stalled Atlantic fronts

Live image so will change

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10-11-2018, 21:16   #628
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Some increasing signs of a far more settled period of weather with high pressure the more dominant feature centered nicely around the Baltics in the 3rd week of November. If we get that southeasterly flow it would be very pleasant for a time though never mild.

A caveat is there could be a little anticyclonic gloom (stubborn trapped cloud) around initially this time of year.



Set fair for the next few weeks - nothing remarkable on the horizon.

I'd be watching for any signs that high pressure is declining and building back west allowing for a colder regime from the north before the end of November. That would be quite a change.
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11-11-2018, 18:04   #629
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Can you imagine if this came off.






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11-11-2018, 18:27   #630
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Repeat of November 2010??
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