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06-10-2018, 15:38   #31
Artane2002
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Originally Posted by sryanbruen View Post
Whilst Siberian snow cover is lacking so far compared to previous years (especially 2017 for instance), Scandinavian snow cover continues to increase dramatically. In fact in the archive, I could not find as much snow cover over Scandinavia back to 1998 as 2018 on 5 October. Closest matches being 2003 and 2009. Notice 2003 and 2009 didn't have large extents of snow cover over Siberia either (especially 2009) on 5th October.
I would guess 2009 is going to be one of the years in the final analogues for winter. If that Eastern European High being shown by the models comes off, I'd expect lots more increase in snow over Siberia because of northerlies coming down there. The warm air being sucked up by that high would displace the cold to Siberia. Caveat is I'm no expert.

Here is a chart to illustrate what I'm saying


Last edited by Artane2002; 06-10-2018 at 21:44.
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07-10-2018, 17:45   #32
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Sryan kindly found this tweet yesterday which shows the extreme Warm Air Advection (WAA) going into the Arctic.

https://twitter.com/TerliWetter/stat...58496240189440
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08-10-2018, 10:47   #33
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EPS show a massive increase in Siberian snow cover in the next week, an implication for a negative AO.

https://twitter.com/longrangesnow/st...475938816?s=21
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08-10-2018, 12:39   #34
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Originally Posted by Artane2002 View Post
Sryan kindly found this tweet yesterday which shows the extreme Warm Air Advection (WAA) going into the Arctic.

https://twitter.com/TerliWetter/stat...58496240189440
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Again a massive blocking over Europe, especially over Scandinavia (have some kind of deja vu) - same Situation with the Jet over the Atlantic like in Summer. This is 500hPa anomaly graphic.
Could we (here in the British Isles) be lucky enough to get a mild winter (2018/2019), if there's a blocking over Europe? My own thinking is we will get a blocking over Europe but it would cause extreme cold, not too much snow just extreme cold (-10 to -15ish frost) for long periods.
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08-10-2018, 13:57   #35
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Could we (here in the British Isles) be lucky enough to get a mild winter (2018/2019), if there's a blocking over Europe? My own thinking is we will get a blocking over Europe but it would cause extreme cold, not too much snow just extreme cold (-10 to -15ish frost) for long periods.
Depends on where exactly in Europe the blocking is. If it's over Scandinavia then that would generally result in cold weather. If it's over Central Europe it would bring us mild southerlies. If it's over France/Spain then we would get mild, often wet weather.
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12-10-2018, 20:22   #36
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Siberian snow cover still very slowly advancing, among the lowest in the record (back to 1998) for this point in time.



Meanwhile, on the other side, this was North Dakota, US on 10th October with farmers harvesting wheat......

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13-10-2018, 10:54   #37
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https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/...47444325257216
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15-10-2018, 17:07   #38
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Whatever the long-term trend, it's good to see that the most recent 12 years of annual minimum Arctic sea ice extent have shown a flattening or even a very slight upward trend of ~0.1% per year.

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15-10-2018, 17:14   #39
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Some nice advances west over the weekend!

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27-10-2018, 10:49   #40
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Siberian snow cover has significantly increased in the past few days. Scandinavia too.

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27-10-2018, 11:24   #41
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Originally Posted by sryanbruen View Post
Siberian snow cover has significantly increased in the past few days. Scandinavia too.
I think the slow start may have been a good thing. The rate of increase is the thing that matters the most, not the extent of snow cover. Hopefully the rate of increase is sufficient for a negative AO. The charts are showing the main part of the PV over Siberia so that should help.
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27-10-2018, 17:26   #42
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I think the slow start may have been a good thing. The rate of increase is the thing that matters the most, not the extent of snow cover. Hopefully the rate of increase is sufficient for a negative AO. The charts are showing the main part of the PV over Siberia so that should help.
The sea ice is also looking supportive of a -AO and Scandi blocking. I'm going to guess that this winter will have a negative AO and a near neutral NAO, with some spells of -NAO while also some +NAO periods.
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01-11-2018, 18:01   #43
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Not a bad finish.



https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1058049690703421440
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13-11-2018, 14:29   #44
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Any update to this snow cover? Or a link to the snow cover map ?

Please
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13-11-2018, 17:48   #45
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Any update to this snow cover? Or a link to the snow cover map ?

Please
I might upload later because I'm busy at the moment but we finished in a favourable position for a cold winter.
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