Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

September 2014 Boards forecast contest

  • 27-08-2014 2:32am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭


    Perhaps you'll fall for the September forecast contest, with a link to the entry form below the usual guide:

    1. IMT for the five stations, 1981-2010 average was 13.2

    2. MAX for the met.ie stations.

    3. MIN for the met.ie stations.

    4. PRC (rainfall) as % of normal for the eleven stations used.

    5. SUN as % of normal for the six stations used.

    6. BONUS -- Based on a suggestion from rikand these bonus questions (two parts) will give a forecast for the date and nearby venue of the All-Ireland senior football championship match and if that isn't actually on the 21st, like happened once before, too bad we'll predict this weather anyway ... :)

    Part 1 -- the max temp at Phoenix Park on the 21st, and
    Part 2 -- the rainfall in mm at Phoenix Park on the 21st.

    (just numbers, e.g. 17.2 and 5.3 in the two separate boxes provided in the form which is at this link ...)

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

    Enter without penalty by 0300h Tuesday 2nd September, penalties will revert to the usual 5 pts per half day as we have this thread up and running with time to spare.

    Good luck, August scoring will probably be finished on the 2nd this time around due more to my holidays than their holidays (Monday 1st here is Labour Day, the one day that nobody works!).


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I jumped in first, the water is warm. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,764 ✭✭✭Bsal


    The water wasn't that warm but its Done :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,099 ✭✭✭John mac


    Done.


  • Registered Users Posts: 809 ✭✭✭omicron


    Done


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,167 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    Done


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭lostinashford


    Done


  • Registered Users Posts: 546 ✭✭✭dasa29


    done


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,623 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Done


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,098 ✭✭✭rameire


    done

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,323 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Done


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 6,836 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Done


  • Registered Users Posts: 206 ✭✭okla


    Done


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,474 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Done, I think the water would be warmer than normal but not as hot as M.T.


  • Registered Users Posts: 371 ✭✭waterways


    Done. Mt I hope you will beat consensus this month. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Done


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    bit late but done


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,834 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Done, apologies :/ better late than never...


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Forecasts for September 2014


    FORECASTER _________ IMT __ MAX __ MIN ___ PRC __ SUN ___ Wx 21st PP

    M. T. Cranium ________ 15.5 __ 28.5 __ -1.0 ___ 040 __ 170 ___ 22.2 _ 0.0
    jd __________________14.9 __ 24.2 ___ 0.1 ___ 092 __ 108 ___ 17.2 _ 0.0
    lostinashford _________ 14.7 __ 25.6 __ -0.7 ___ 070 __ 115 ___ 18.5 _ 0.4
    Jpmarn ______________14.5 __ 24.7 ___ 0.5 ___091 __ 122 ___ 19.5 _ 1.5
    waterways ___________14.3 __ 23.0 __ -2.0 ___ 071 __ 124 ___ 17.7 _ 0.0
    Dacogawa (-15) _______14.2 __ 25.2 __ -1.4 ___ 086 __ 110 ___ 16.1 _ 3.1
    Okla ________________14.2 __ 22.6 __ -1.1 ___ 070 __ 120 ___ 16.4 _ 1.5
    sunflower3 ___________14.2 __ 22.3 ___ 1.5 ___ 082 __ 111 ___ 19.4 _ 0.0
    mickger844posts (-5)___14.1 __ 23.5 ___ 2.1 ___ 090 __ 115 ___ 17.4 _ 0.0
    omicron _____________14.0 __ 25.0 ___ 2.0 ___ 080 __ 120 ___ 18.0 _ 0.0
    Thezohan ____________14.0 __ 24.0 ___ 1.0 ___ 095 __ 110 ___ 17.0 _ 0.0

    Con Sensus __________ 14.0 __ 23.1 ___ 0.1 ___ 084 __ 110 ___ 17.8 _ 0.2

    Johnmac ____________ 13.9 __ 24.2 ___ 0.2 ___ 105 __ 108 ___ 22.1 _ 0.0
    Joe Public ___________ 13.8 __ 22.9 ___ 2.9 ___ 075 __ 120 ___ 17.9 _ 4.0
    DOCARCH ___________ 13.5 __ 23.2 __ -1.8 ___ 095 __ 105 ___ 19.2 _ 0.0
    rikand ______________ 13.5 __ 23.1 __ -1.3 ___ 080 __ 125 ___ 19.0 _ 0.2
    pauldry _____________ 13.5 __ 23.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 090 __ 090 ___ 19.0 _ 4.0
    kindredspirit _________ 13.5 __ 21.8 __ -1.0 ___ 095 __ 105 ___ 16.0 _ 0.0
    200motels ___________13.4 __ 22.9 ___ 3.9 ___ 070 __ 120 ___ 18.6 _ 0.0
    rameire _____________ 13.4 __ 22.7 ___ 0.1 ___ 080 __ 085 ___ 18.1 _ 0.1
    Tae laidir ____________13.3 __ 21.7 __ -2.1 ___ 072 __ 090 ___ 15.5 _ 2.2
    dasa29 _____________ 13.0 __ 24.0 ___ 2.0 ___ 110 __ 090 ___ 21.0 _ 2.0
    Bsal ________________12.8 __ 21.1 __ -2.7 ___ 091 __ 097 ___ 13.0 _ 0.5
    _____________________________________________

    The consensus appears to be on the warm, dry and sunny side of normal, and this probably extends to the bonus question as well. With almost half the field looking for a dry day on the 21st, will probably go 7 pts temp and 3 pts rainfall on that one.

    Current time penalty is 20%, will be 25% after 0300h tonight.

    All scoring is up to date in the August thread. Rikand continues to lead and has almost caught up to Con Sensus now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Con's PRC a touch high?


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I checked it, not sure if you spotted an error or just commenting on the number itself, but anyway, I miscounted and dropped the precip from 90 to 84 per cent, it's supposed to be the median value so the average of 11th and 12th highest. Could change again if we get any late forecasts.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 6,836 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I see Shannon got 23.9c provisional


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,836 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Also 38 mm of rain in Shannon yesterday. NOT A MISPRINT


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Sorry I missed this month, not had a lot of free time recently so my online time has been almost non-existent

    Am I right in saying that its still the best 10 months that are counted?


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,323 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Looks that way from the august scoring table. MT was ranking people best six scores out of eight.

    So you should be grand harps :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After seven days,

    IMT was 14.3

    MAX 23.9, MIN 2.1 but last night will prove lower (saw an hourly of 1 C at 06)

    PRC 25% almost all of which is thanks to Shannon being under a heavy shower on Friday 5th, otherwise it would be 5%

    SUN only 81% despite plenty of sunshine on a few days, that should improve.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Can confirm 1.0 C at Mountdillon early Monday.

    Just doing some math on the sunshine, three days at 200% added to seven at 80% gives 116% after ten days. Just as a rough guide to trends. Probably down to 20% on PRC now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,323 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Mercy rule for PRC ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    If it was under 65% yes, if around 70 then possibly a slight adjustment required but there are a lot of fairly low predictions. The rule works like this for precip -- the scoring (out of 15) must exceed 13,12,11,10, then two at each of 9,8 etc. Wherever it fails to reach this "minimum progression" the numbers are bumped up. In the past this has led to situations where you have a blend of actual and adjusted scores.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,167 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    Rikand wrote: »
    Mercy rule for PRC ;)

    What's the mercy rule?


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    In the contests, we have a rule informally called the mercy rule and formally known as "minimum progression of scoring."

    For each category, there's a formula that is used to guarantee that scores for that month will exceed a certain minimum which, from experience with more normal situations, is a little less than what is often seen in scoring.

    Example, in a normal situation, scores (out of 15) for the rainfall portion might run something like 15, 14,14, 13,13,13, 12, 11,11,11, 10,10 etc if we ranked all the scores. But in an odd situation with a large anomaly, even the best scores might only be 5 or so, then a few more very low ones and basically most of the field at zero despite the fact that some people were considerably closer than others to the actual number.

    So to correct that (and also to make the months more equal in scoring which is a consideration given that we take best ten out of twelve) I go from a formula of minimum downward progression of scores. For precip, as mentioned in previous post, this is 13,12,11,10,10,9,9 etc down to 1,1, then everyone else zero.

    This can sometimes be a matter of tweaking existing scores that are almost the same, or bumping a lot of small scores upward, or some other combination.

    What may happen this month is that precip could come in much lower than almost any forecast which will invoke the "mercy rule" and produce scores that at least reward those who went relatively low more than those who didn't.


Advertisement