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Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

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Comments

  • #272
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Monday is starting to look quite disruptive from snow. It really has upgraded over the last 24 hours particularly for the Southern half of the country. I see no reason why that front can't quickly turn to snow. The parameters for snow are just about ticked but then the heavy ppn should sway the matter. Amazing stuff really in its own right.....it's not every day we get snow from the southwest.....IF indeed it does happen. An orange warning for snow is not impossible and for once it's bypassing the media with the election and stuff going on!

    Interesting alright especially given GL has not struck it down...yet!


  • #273
    mobil 222
    Registered Users Posts: 226 ✭✭mobil 222


    My cats went out yesterday morning ,stood together in the middle of the street and did not move for nearly 10 minutes. Very strange because there first port of call in the mornings is the bottom of the garden in search of any frozen little bird . They stood there then moved back to the steps into the garage and just stood there .Very unusual because to add to this the sound coming from the sea which is about 2km away was very loud.I think we are looking at very bad weather later and over the next few days. Its our own choice to take it serious or not but to everyone out there who will disagree just respect what we are been told because something i have learned over the years do not ever underestimate the power of wind .All it takes is a few seconds out of any day to bring grief.


  • #274
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    The 00z models out so far have little new insight, waiting to see the ECM.

    What intrigues me is that a very unusual 175 kt reading at 500 mb (90 kt at same location 700 mb) is indicated from Yarmouth NS at 00z. Winds have increased over NS to 80-120 km/hr in the past two hours. The centre of the low (already about 967 mbs) was near western Newfoundland at 04z.

    Then bear in mind this quite strong cyclone is being swung around an even deeper 932 mb low west of Iceland. Given those upper level wind anomalies, I think we should be ready to process intensification signals in future model runs, perhaps the ECM will pick up on this potential with the 00z run due out in an hour or so.

    The 175 kt reading was not flagged as suspect on the chart. To give some context, readings above 120 knots are unusual (at 500 mb). Also 90 kts at 700 mb is close to an extreme. So there is definitely a low level jet forming as the low about to become storm "Ciara" enters the western Atlantic.

    Will be keeping a very close watch on developments as my intuition says this one could over-perform (there is also a massive energy peak on Feb 9th to phase with the storm approaching the Rockall marine zone).

    It may well stay within the limits we have been discussing but be prepared for some chance of a red alert being required on this occasion. Would think the 12z model run will pick up any strong potential for upgrades.

    Here's the ECM 700-hPa chart for 00Z showing even above 100 kts over New Foundland. This translates eastwards and brings the 90 kts close to Ireland tomorrow morning.

    ecm0125_nat_r700_w700_uv700_gh700_gh700-1000_2020020800_000.png

    ecm0125_nat_r700_w700_uv700_gh700_gh700-1000_2020020800_030.png


  • #275
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    mobil 222 wrote: »
    My cats went out yesterday morning ,stood together in the middle of the street and did not move for nearly 10 minutes. Very strange because there first port of call in the mornings is the bottom of the garden in search of any frozen little bird . They stood there then moved back to the steps into the garage and just stood there .Very unusual because to add to this the sound coming from the sea which is about 2km away was very loud.I think we are looking at very bad weather later and over the next few days. Its our own choice to take it serious or not but to everyone out there who will disagree just respect what we are been told because something i have learned over the years do not ever underestimate the power of wind .All it takes is a few seconds out of any day to bring grief.

    Excellent post and fascinating re the cats. Mine are erratic today as they were yesterday. The 3 rescues I took in 18 months ago were street cats and they are staying out now by choice. They have shelter in the sheds here. Clearly feel safer when with an open door and half a roof!.

    I learned to respect the weather when in Orkney where fatalities happened if you did not, Same in the islands here. Easy to forget when you are enjoying the thrill, which is also very real and fine.

    For me, no great thrill as we are well weathered out here. Well prepared and very respectful indeed. Aware that were I to be careless and need help it would endanger my neighbours and rescuers.


  • #276
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Mod Note: New chat/non-technical discussion thread opened for Storm Ciara:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058052509

    Can we (try and) keep this thread for technical discussion only....and....charts, maps, satellite pics, observations, data and forecasts.

    Please post in the appropriate thread.

    Moderators will move posts as they deem appropriate.


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  • #277
    irishrover99
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    Just seen ventusky has some snow for the capital.
    And it looks like someone has finally given the city an appropriate name 😀


  • #278
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    To my surprise there is a light dusting of snow on the hills here in Donegal


  • #279
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,442 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Snow will be the bigger disruptive influence rather than wind over the next few days.


  • #280
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Snow will be the bigger disruptive influence rather than wind over the next few days.

    MT in his forecast seems to think only on high ground. GL reckons it’s on. Usually other way around!


  • #281
    Goldfinch8
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Goldfinch8


    Pangea wrote: »
    To my surprise there is a light dusting of snow on the hills here in Donegal

    Tops of some of the Mayo mountains got a dusting overnight also.


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  • #282
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Monday is starting to look quite disruptive from snow. It really has upgraded over the last 24 hours particularly for the Southern half of the country. I see no reason why that front can't quickly turn to snow. The parameters for snow are just about ticked but then the heavy ppn should sway the matter. Amazing stuff really in its own right.....it's not every day we get snow from the southwest.....IF indeed it does happen. An orange warning for snow is not impossible and for once it's bypassing the media with the election and stuff going on!

    Is this feature only appearing on the Fax charts, if so then I'm not sure how reliable they are 3 days out


  • #283
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    MT not confident of snow only higher ground.


  • #284
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    It's actually sunny in Galway this morning and I can see blue skies.
    I thought I wouldn't see any sun for the whole weekend. Small bit breezy and chilly.
    Oops wrong thread.


  • #285
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    MT in his forecast seems to think only on high ground. GL reckons it’s on. Usually other way around!

    Spidey sense in me also atm says its on
    Fax dams suggest so but only barely
    You won't need to go too far inland or uphill unless your wind is off the sea


  • #286
    uck51js9zml2yt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    Rain cleared in North Kerry. Windy and voting steady !


  • #287
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,136 ✭✭✭highdef


    Deagol wrote: »
    In fairness, the lad who got the yellow card had it absolutely right.

    Regular normal bad couple of wintery days in Ireland. A bit windy, a bit wet and a few wintry showers.

    I have no idea why this forum seems to be full of people wishing for natural disasters that will cause misery for 'other' people rather than thanking whatever deity you chose for a quiet life.

    I ,for one, am glad that as in 80% of the time your doom and gloom predictions of 180km/h gusts and 10cm+ of snow is comprehensively being shown to be complete and utter tosh based on GFS model nonsense. Why anyone who knows anything about weather even looks at the GFS I have no idea as it is 100% time wrong on anything over 24 hours.

    I have to say, I'm pretty much in agreement. I said similar myself in the past few days that I was not expecting this storm to be anything particularly noteworthy - a pretty much regular winter storm albeit with longer longevity than usual. That in itself, combined with a fair drop of rain, may well cause a bit more damage especially when it comes to uprooting some trees. Regarding the GFS model, it started off forecasting this as a "mega" storm and it has gradually tapered off in it's prediction of mass destruction as T-0 has drawn ever nearer and is now looking like an ever so slightly stronger than normal winter storm with longevity being the unusual part.

    Across all the main models I'm not seeing anything excessive. What I would agree with is that many inland and eastern parts (where strong winds are not regularly experienced) are likely to have gusts around the 100 km/h mark or a little above for parts of tomorrow, particularly the first half of daytime hours. This in itself does lend itself an element of caution as Sundays are a time when a lot of people are out and about......Sunday walks, mass goers, local football matches, etc.

    Snow wise, I'm just not seeing the levels of snow being predicted here, for the vast majority of the populations. High ground is pretty much a dead cert. I'd imagine areas above 200/300m will likely do quite well, especially in northern and western areas and also in the southern half/third of the country later on during Monday (still subject to change). It will be cold, yes, but meaningful/disruptive depths of snow look to be mainly in the areas just mentioned. Even if that more prolonged and heavier area of precipitation passes across (the southern half of) the country during Monday, I can envisage most populated (ie: low-lying) parts to experience a wintry mix of rain, sleet and wet snow with a fairly strong breeze. I can also expect reports coming in from many low-lying parts away from the north and west saying that the snow is not sticking or it's only sticking on cars and grass and roads are just wet.....that kind of thing.

    Having said this, I love a good fall of snow and if I'm wrong on the above, I'll be delighted but my gut feeling an analysis of the charts sways me on the side of no meaningful snow for most people. Fingers crossed I'm wrong.

    Finally, as is the usually the case with GFS and as touched on earlier in this post, Ciara was initially going to be a disastrous storm and as is often the case, it has backed down to near normal levels of intensity so in true form it is currently showing a fairly powerful storm for next Friday and for Tuesday 18th it is showing an extremely powerful storm with winds gusting in or around 150 km/h in inland parts including the south and east, Dublin etc, during daytime hours. Maybe it will happen and some day it will but I could bet a fair wad of cash that it will be tamed down a huge amount, at the very least. The 06z run is rolling out now and I would be surprised if that is not completely different.


  • #288
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,136 ✭✭✭highdef


    squarecircles wrote: »
    the disastrous storm was a totally different system that was forecast for this coming tuesday,which vanished of the charts numbers of days ago, ciara is a totally different system which that other plonker lumped together with ciara.

    OK, fair point and point taken. Apart from that, my thoughts still stand regarding the impacts of this weekends events (I really do want a good snowfall though :p)


  • #289
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Clouds starting to drift into cork city now, moving fast too so the rain is en route. Was a lovely morning with blue skies though. Looking at the charts, I believe the ARPEGE could end up being the winner today with the gusts etc that it's showing. Tomorrow will be even more interesting to see which is the best.


  • #290
    Doctors room ghost
    Registered Users Posts: 4,799 ✭✭✭Doctors room ghost


    Calm if a bit cold in east Galway so far.
    Wind was whipping earlier last night before settling.all signs here that the wind will rise later on.


  • #291
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    If this morning's ECM is to go by, rainfall amounts could be just a big an issue as the wind over the next 24 to 36 hours.

    New Moon



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  • #292
    m17
    Registered Users Posts: 4,322 ✭✭✭m17


    rSTqMa0.jpg


  • #293
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Gusts up to 65 knots forecast at Shannon tomorrow morning. 60 knots at Knock. Wild enough!


  • #294
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,233 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Oscar Bravo wrote: »
    Gusts up to 65 knots forecast at Shannon tomorrow morning. 60 knots at Knock. Wild enough!

    65kts is 120kph. That’s in Orange alert territory according to Met Eireanns criteria (between 110 and 130kph)


  • #295
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    A squall line developing West to East later today so 60 knots within that not out of the question. Around 1pm to 3pm I'd say

    Barely any rain fell in Sligo since thunder last night


  • #296
    endainoz
    Registered Users Posts: 4,690 ✭✭✭endainoz


    Akrasia wrote: »
    65kts is 120kph. That’s in Orange alert territory according to Met Eireanns criteria (between 110 and 130kph)

    Clare will probably get upgraded to an orange for tomorrow. Will just have to wait and see when Met Eireann update them later on today I suppose.


  • #297
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    pauldry wrote: »
    A squall line developing West to East later today so 60 knots within that not out of the question. Around 1pm to 3pm I'd say

    Barely any rain fell in Sligo since thunder last night

    Maybe that is what just hit out here .


  • #298
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Nationwide orange now!!!


  • #299
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Entire country gone orange for tomorrow


  • #300
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Nationwide orange now!!!

    Just about to post it! Damn you! :-P


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  • #301
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Is this orange an upgrade or as expected? MT mentioned he felt this system might be stronger than anticipated.


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