2020/21 NBA season + Olympics

tyivpc5qjx0f2b · 18-01-2021 6:25am

Morrison J wrote: »

There's always a narrative around the winner though and with Westbrook it was that ridiculous narrative around him averaging a triple double. Harden got robbed of the MPV that year really. I don't think we'll see that mistake made again for a long time so I struggle to see it with Curry. Embiid has a shot but he's got to prove he can stay healthy first and I'm not convinced he'll be a sexy pick for voters. With Durant coming back from injury and LeBron long over due another MVP I think those are the likely narratives that win out to the voters.

I've backed Durant @ 13/1 and LeBron @ 12/1 anyway so I'm hoping my theories hold up!

If Westbrook had averaged 9.9 rebounds or assists all else equal then Harden was a clear winner and it’s the reason why I don’t see Luka with a chance unless he gets homecourt.
I don’t envisage a scenario where a narrative like the triple double exists that might capture people’s imagination.

KD would be my pick of the two given the load he needs to carry and a great narrative around returning from that injury.

Jokic averaging a triple double as a big man is a solid one but Nuggets may not get homecourt.

My sneaky outsider is PG13, currently 3rd in the MVP ladder, clearly playing with a chip on his shoulder after everything with Doc/Clipper collapse.
Kawhi is the best player but PG largely driving the team this year.
They’ll get homecourt so no issues there and he has been playing big mins.

chopperbyrne · 18-01-2021 9:28am

Decided to get League Pass because I'm sick of Sky's ****e coverage.

Watched Celtics vs Knicks last night.

Knicks played reasonably well, but holy **** the Celtics were dirt.

As a team, they shot about 50% from free throws, and were awful from all other shots too.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b · 18-01-2021 9:55am

chopperbyrne wrote: »

Decided to get League Pass because I'm sick of Sky's ****e coverage.

Watched Celtics vs Knicks last night.

Knicks played reasonably well, but holy **** the Celtics were dirt.

As a team, they should about 50% from free throws, and were awful from all other shots too.

Great start time to watch two games and still get an early night.

I suppose Kemba on a mins restriction and Tatum out some may be forgiven but they looked dreadful. It makes you think how close Tatum might be in the MVP conversation.

Big fan of Jaylen Brown so I was really expecting something special given his performances thus far but he was really disappointing.

Sweet.Science · 18-01-2021 9:59am

I really think if the Clippers upgrade at point guard they can come out of the west
Unsure why they didnt go for Rondo. Also unsure why he went to the Hawks himself to be behind Trae Young

Coneygree · 18-01-2021 11:01am

I agree LeBron and Durant would be the picks. Jokic too, but he'll never get it unless he puts up never before seen numbers from a center.

LeBron might get it just to fit the narrative that he should have got it last year (in my opinion he shouldn't, it was clear as day Giannis was the best regular season player) and also the fact that since he won a ring with the Lakers there's very few critical of him any more. He's once again in complete coast mode but you feel he can kick it up a gear without too much damage being done to his post season energy any time and he could go on a tear for a few weeks to swing the narrative.

For KD, he's going to have acres of space and open looks to operate out of now that Harden and Kyrie will take so much focus off him. Its like he's back at Golden State again!

On a side note, it looks like it might be back to tough times being a Hawks fan unless something drastic changes.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b · 18-01-2021 11:24am

Coneygree wrote: »

I agree LeBron and Durant would be the picks. Jokic too, but he'll never get it unless he puts up never before seen numbers from a center.

LeBron might get it just to fit the narrative that he should have got it last year (in my opinion he shouldn't, it was clear as day Giannis was the best regular season player) and also the fact that since he won a ring with the Lakers there's very few critical of him any more. He's once again in complete coast mode but you feel he can kick it up a gear without too much damage being done to his post season energy any time and he could go on a tear for a few weeks to swing the narrative.

For KD, he's going to have acres of space and open looks to operate out of now that Harden and Kyrie will take so much focus off him. Its like he's back at Golden State again!

On a side note, it looks like it might be back to tough times being a Hawks fan unless something drastic changes.

I think the shorter schedule is advantageous to LBJ as he’ll need to kick it up a gear for a smaller amount of games.

Only issue with that is he’ll need to do it sooner rather than later because you can’t coast through as many early games.

I don’t know about Jokic, I’m bullish on his chances, I think the numbers he has now would be pretty close if Denver could get to 3rd? 25-11-10 while leading the league in win shares.

Possibly a stretch to think the oust the Jazz given they are so solid. For me, it comes down to Porter Jr, how productive can he be when he comes back and how much of his touches come from Jokic.

ButtersSuki · 18-01-2021 11:55am

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

If Westbrook had averaged 9.9 rebounds or assists all else equal then Harden was a clear winner and it’s the reason why I don’t see Luka with a chance unless he gets homecourt.
I don’t envisage a scenario where a narrative like the triple double exists that might capture people’s imagination.

KD would be my pick of the two given the load he needs to carry and a great narrative around returning from that injury.

Jokic averaging a triple double as a big man is a solid one but Nuggets may not get homecourt.

My sneaky outsider is PG13, currently 3rd in the MVP ladder, clearly playing with a chip on his shoulder after everything with Doc/Clipper collapse.
Kawhi is the best player but PG largely driving the team this year.
They’ll get homecourt so no issues there and he has been playing big mins.

No chance. Too many “Play Off P” and regular season (Dallas a few weeks ago) no shows and failures have tarnished the reputation beyond that sort of turnaround. Plus, he’s known as being “soft”. Like Harden, he will get some votes, but the narrative is too bad for him to command enough votes to win MVP unless he does something other-worldly for the rest of the season.

Gregk961 · 18-01-2021 12:29pm

I bet on KD after I seen the Nets play a couple of games. If he plays a full season there is no way he's not in the top 5 just on merit alone. It's not hard to make the case that he's "owed" another MVP aswell. He's also going to have some gaudy numbers and the Nets look likely to finish in the top half of the east.

Lebron looks rock solid aswell. The rest of the candidates will struggle to meet all the criteria.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b · 18-01-2021 12:42pm

ButtersSuki wrote: »

No chance. Too many “Play Off P” and regular season (Dallas a few weeks ago) no shows and failures have tarnished the reputation beyond that sort of turnaround. Plus, he’s known as being “soft”. Like Harden, he will get some votes, but the narrative is too bad for him to command enough votes to win MVP unless he does something other-worldly for the rest of the season.

My own thoughts were that he's effectively guaranteed to be in the Top 2 in the West so he automatically fulfills that criteria which is a big part.

Kia MVP ladder is usually pretty accurate at gauging the sentiment of how these awards are viewed and they have him 3rd.
As they say, Kawhi is the best player but PG is the catalyst of the Clippers early season success.

I think the chance is small but not zero.

Given we were discussing MVP with an odds aspect to it, I feel that PG at 100/1 is pretty generous. I just don't think his chances of winning MVP are less than 1%

Sweet.Science · 18-01-2021 3:05pm

I think if he stays injury free KD has to be favourite . I think the Nets will win the East and he will be close to 30 PPG

buyer95 · 18-01-2021 3:38pm

Great day of ball today lads! Happy MLK day haha

Corvo · 18-01-2021 3:50pm

Sweet.Science wrote: »

I really think if the Clippers upgrade at point guard they can come out of the west
Unsure why they didnt go for Rondo. Also unsure why he went to the Hawks himself to be behind Trae Young

Apparently Rondo has his eye on a coaching role and with the Hawks young core its rumoured it would suit him better than for instance getting a job with established players.

buyer95 · 18-01-2021 6:55pm

The Knicks are building something with Thibs. They still lack talent, but he has them playing that never say die, constant hustle style that grinds out wins. RJ Barret could really be something if he could get that shot together, and Mitchell Robinson is another interesting piece with huge upside. I've never been a big Randle fan, but he is a great scorer and the Knicks need that. He's actually been much improved as a passer this year. They may well sniff the play in tournament, but just lack that bit of offense.
Quickley is looking like a huge steal at 25 though, I've really enjoyed watching him.

Denis Smith Jr on the other hand looks like a complete disaster. To think he was the crucial piece in that Porzingis deal...

chopperbyrne · 18-01-2021 7:10pm

They don't have enough to threaten the top teams in the Eastern Conference, but if they can keep the core of this team together, and bring in another few hard working, talented players, they could build something Knicks fans could actually be proud of.

buyer95 · 18-01-2021 7:28pm

chopperbyrne wrote: »

They don't have enough to threaten the top teams in the Eastern Conference, but if they can keep the core of this team together, and bring in another few hard working, talented players, they could build something Knicks fans could actually be proud of.

Yeah they are 2 or 3 players short of being anywhere near threatening the East. If the Knicks did make the play in tournament though, that would be huge progress for a franchise that has been in disarray for years. They can't just punt another year and bottom out. Thibs obviously was chosen beacuse front office likes what they have and want to build towards something. Definitely would need at least one top player though, which is easier said than done. I do feel Thibs will get time to put something real together

chopperbyrne · 18-01-2021 8:06pm

They're starting to fall apart in this game.

73-73 with 5:30 to play.

buyer95 · 18-01-2021 8:29pm

chopperbyrne wrote: »

They're starting to fall apart in this game.

73-73 with 5:30 to play.

They are scrappy, like all Thibs teams. Stuck with it, even when they looked atrocious on offense (as they often do) and manged to eek out the win. Thibs would be 10 times more happy now with that win than a 140-120 victory.

ButtersSuki · 19-01-2021 12:09am

buyer95 wrote: »

They are scrappy, like all Thibs teams. Stuck with it, even when they looked atrocious on offense (as they often do) and manged to eek out the win. Thibs would be 10 times more happy now with that win than a 140-120 victory.

Thibs’ wet dream is a 4-2 win.

I know he takes a lot of sh*t for being old school and the minutes he plays the guys but I love the passion and tenacity he brings. What’s driving this Knicks team is fundamentals like playing D and playing hard on every single play. When he was the Chicago coach and the Heat were on their streak the game he coached against them was an absolute masterclass from a strategic perspective. The “next man up” philosophy was also something that galvanized teams in ways you couldn’t imagine now.

It’ll always be a case of “what if?” in Chicago. Had Rose not gotten injured they would have been the best placed team to beat Miami during their 4 year run as East Champions.

He also took a Minnesota team to the play offs for the first time in years.

He’s also the fastest coach in NBA history to 100 wins. I remember reading that a few years ago and being a little shocked, but shows you how well he had those Chicago teams playing.

Hello 2D Person Below · 19-01-2021 3:35am

That's one too many stupid ****ing turnovers from the Bulls for me.

I have no problem being patient but one thing that I cannot abide is stupid, unnecessary, turnovers. Piss off.

Hello 2D Person Below · 19-01-2021 3:55am

I've also run out of patience with Wendell Carter. I'd give him away for **** all in the morning.

Hello 2D Person Below · 19-01-2021 4:06am

He has been passed around the league but I like Christian Wood, he has improved hugely.

Carcharodon · 19-01-2021 6:50am

Hell yea baby, Warriors were excellent tonight, they are moving in the right direction, bench was excellent, paschal was phenomenal off the bench
Curry still showing us he is still the man, natural leader in and off the floor, I love him!!

Corvo · 19-01-2021 9:37am

A terrible collapse in the closing minutes I thought from the Lakers. LeBron with two travelling violations, missed threes from LeBron. KCP and Kuzma, and an open jumper missed from the free throw line for Davis. A difficult last second shot from LeBron still could have sealed a win.

Thought Draymond was excellent

LuckyLloyd · 19-01-2021 10:09am

Right time to throw away wins for the Lakers, assuming every team has a few of those each year. Ugly last few minutes to hand the game away.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b · 19-01-2021 10:29am

Corvo wrote: »

A terrible collapse in the closing minutes I thought from the Lakers. LeBron with two travelling violations, missed threes from LeBron. KCP and Kuzma, and an open jumper missed from the free throw line for Davis. A difficult last second shot from LeBron still could have sealed a win.

Thought Draymond was excellent

I think it showed up a distinct lack of shooting on the team. I read an interview the other day where AD & LBJ discussed the best shooters on the team.

AD felt that LBJ was the 3rd best 3pt shooter on the team. I know he’s working on it and he’s been shooting well this season but they need a little more in order to spread the floor especially given LBJ will be on the ball so much.

Might be time to cash in whatever is left in Kuzma trade value because I think a lot of guys available from waivers will be interested in the Nets over the Lakers.

buyer95 · 19-01-2021 11:05am

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Right time to throw away wins for the Lakers, assuming every team has a few of those each year. Ugly last few minutes to hand the game away.

This. Teams are going to have a couple of ugly losses over the course of the season. The only three point threat they lost from last year was Danny Green, and Green actually had a down year from beyond the arc. Wes Mathews largely compensates for whatever you lose with Green. He's a loss sure, but I think the Lakers have more than enough offense. Just a bad night from the field from both AD and LeBron makes it hard to win.

Nets looked very impressive against the Bucks, they are so much fun to watch. I like them in that match up with Milwaukee, Durant can cope with Giannis, and the Nets have too much offense. I think the 76ers will be a much more difficult match up, Embiid has taken his game to another level this year and I don't think the Nets could contain him. The question over how Kyrie fits into all this lingers also.

Sweet.Science · 19-01-2021 11:30am

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

I think it showed up a distinct lack of shooting on the team. I read an interview the other day where AD & LBJ discussed the best shooters on the team.

AD felt that LBJ was the 3rd best 3pt shooter on the team. I know he’s working on it and he’s been shooting well this season but they need a little more in order to spread the floor especially given LBJ will be on the ball so much.

Might be time to cash in whatever is left in Kuzma trade value because I think a lot of guys available from waivers will be interested in the Nets over the Lakers.

Agree 100% on the lack of shooting on the team and that it could be exposed . I think they got away with it in the bubble as they didnt play any elite team. They will this year .

tyivpc5qjx0f2b · 19-01-2021 11:39am

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Agree 100% on the lack of shooting on the team and that it could be exposed . I think they got away with it in the bubble as they didnt play any elite team. They will this year .

You're entirely right and to answer Buyer in the process too.

They only lost Green but that doesn't mean they had enough shooting last year either and now they have less.

Even then Wes Matthews shoots 38% on 3.5 attempts per game as a non-starter which is less than Green in the regular season but significantly less than the 5.5 he shot in the playoffs on a similar %.

The Nets didn't exist while the Clippers & Bucks are generally better while also shooting significantly better.

Top 3 3pt shooting teams in the NBA by % 1. Clippers, 2. Bucks & 3. Nets while the Lakers are 5th.

Caveat there of course being the Lakers rank 18th in makes while the aforementioned teams rank 5th, 3rd & 6th respectively.

Although their game isn't entirely predicated on shooting, it's clear they are significantly behind their main rivals

buyer95 · 19-01-2021 12:35pm

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

You're entirely right and to answer Buyer in the process too.

They only lost Green but that doesn't mean they had enough shooting last year either and now they have less.

Even then Wes Matthews shoots 38% on 3.5 attempts per game as a non-starter which is less than Green in the regular season but significantly less than the 5.5 he shot in the playoffs on a similar %.

The Nets didn't exist while the Clippers & Bucks are generally better while also shooting significantly better.

Top 3 3pt shooting teams in the NBA by % 1. Clippers, 2. Bucks & 3. Nets while the Lakers are 5th.

Caveat there of course being the Lakers rank 18th in makes while the aforementioned teams rank 5th, 3rd & 6th respectively.

Although their game isn't entirely predicated on shooting, it's clear they are significantly behind their main rivals

Do you think the Clippers are better this year? They've looked decent through 14 odd games, but I don't know if they have a better roster at all. Ibaka has looked good alright, but I don't think Batum is a good addition at this stage in his career at all. Still too early to extrapolate much I guess, we'll know more in a few weeks about what's real and what's not. They had a nice week there is no doubt, but put big scores on teams you'd expect them to beat. Playoff P still has a lot to prove on this team after last seasons collapse.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b · 19-01-2021 12:50pm

buyer95 wrote: »

Do you think the Clippers are better this year? They've looked decent through 14 odd games, but I don't know if they have a better roster at all. Ibaka has looked good alright, but I don't think Batum is a good addition at this stage in his career at all. Still too early to extrapolate much I guess, we'll know more in a few weeks about what's real and what's not. They had a nice week there is no doubt, but put big scores on teams you'd expect them to beat. Playoff P still has a lot to prove on this team after last seasons collapse.

Yes, I think they're better.

Kawhi is healthier too which is a huge add. Batum is an analytics darling, does lots that doesn't show you on a standard stats sheet ie .183/48 WS which puts him in some pretty high end company not to mention the 43% he shoots from deep on 4.4 attempts.

One can expect both those numbers to regress a little but he's shot 40% in the past and he's had similar W/S numbers too so not a stretch to think he can maintain it to some extent.

More to the point though, Lakers are trailing quite significantly in 3pt shooting when compared to what most will feel are their closest rivals in either conference.

It's most definitely the one area where I think their weaknesses may be exposed.

Perhaps something will happen in the next few weeks like you say but if you consider that the Lakers were 21st in the league last year in 3pt% and 18th in 3pt shots made along with losing arguably their best 3pt shooter, it's hard to make a case for them getting any better with this current roster.

2020/21 NBA season + Olympics

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