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06-12-2018, 16:10   #61
Sycamore Tree
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It looks like this storm will pass most people by considering the timing and location. Perhaps some flooding around the high tides.
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06-12-2018, 17:32   #62
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Max gusts forecast at Irish Airports on 5pm TAF:

Dublin: 40kts
Shannon: 41kts
Cork: 38kts
Knock: 46kts
Belfast Aldergrove: 35kts
Waterford: 40kts (Highest to Midnight)

Nothing particularly shocking, none actually even fit into yellow criteria. (Yellow =90km/h(48.5kts) - 110km/h)
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06-12-2018, 17:39   #63
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The difference between what’s going to occur and the 12z EC chart from Tuesday which showed barely a disturbance on the front is shocking

That 72hr chart from the deterministic is one of the worst I have seen in years
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06-12-2018, 18:00   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Villain View Post
Because the criteria was that any Orange Weather Warnings means the event is given a name.

I mean Fionn wasn’t even a proper low but it reached Orange criteria so was named. I could see why Liam Dutton and others thought that was silly but I defended Met Eireann as that is the system in place.

This goes against that which means no consistency and will only further confuse people.

Just move to impact based system same as UK and name orange events, then people will be able to have more confidence in the system.
As with most things these days the UK always like to be different and do things their own way, and make a point of doing so.
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06-12-2018, 18:22   #65
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From the guidance it looks fairly borderline yellow to orange, so perhaps a few coastal gusts barely into the orange? But it will slam hard into the Hebrides later, orange alert conditions will verify there (or equivalent).

Out to sea some very strong winds but 100-200 miles off the coast, will say most likely peak gusts about 67 knots Belmullet, 72 Malin Head, perhaps 60 at Finner. Mace Head always seems to do better than Belmullet when the wind is into a westerly direction so they may briefly match or exceed that 67 but I don't necessarily think it will translate into wind damage for Galway (city area).

Graces7 can expect some fairly serious winds by 0300h.

Not sure about the name question, I would vote to keep the next name for the next more impactful storm, 99% of the population will likely be saying "think that missed us here." Partly due to location and partly the timing, a few strong gusts around 0400h could be missed by many.

Reserve the right to upgrade anyway if the last minute reporting causes a rethink.
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06-12-2018, 18:37   #66
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ECM 12Z just rolling out and keeping the track and strongest winds further out again since the last run. Strongest winds just on the coastal fringes, but nothing major standing out. Tomorrow evening may turn out windier than tonight , but still probably not greater than a yellow warning I reckon.









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06-12-2018, 18:39   #67
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ICON similar to the ECM but maybe a bit stronger onshore winds tomorrow night but again just along coasts.




ARPEGE similar



Last edited by Meteorite58; 06-12-2018 at 18:43.
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06-12-2018, 18:57   #68
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Deirdre is the biggest tease ever
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06-12-2018, 18:59   #69
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Heavy showers from an unstable air mass tomorrow with the passage of troughs giving the risk of hail and thunder. Feeling cool in the brisk wind.







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06-12-2018, 19:24   #70
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https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1070747482617995264
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06-12-2018, 21:25   #71
Oscar Bravo
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Belmellet at 7pm was 1001 hpa, 9pm 995 hpa. dropping like a rock as they say
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06-12-2018, 21:49   #72
Pangea
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I read this system was already called Storm Etienne by the Portuguese Met Office which is why it wouldn't be called Deidre but If that's true why aren't Met Éireann calling it Etienne?
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06-12-2018, 21:53   #73
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Just seen wild lights at the zoo is cancelled tomorrow night due to the weather? Haven't seen anything to say Dublin will be hit at all?
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06-12-2018, 22:03   #74
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Quote:
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I read this system was already called Storm Etienne by the Portuguese Met Office which is why it wouldn't be called Deidre but If that's true why aren't Met Éireann calling it Etienne?
Etienne is long gone. That was earlier this week.
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06-12-2018, 22:05   #75
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Quote:
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I read this system was already called Storm Etienne by the Portuguese Met Office which is why it wouldn't be called Deidre but If that's true why aren't Met Éireann calling it Etienne?
No that was Monday and a different system, Met Éireann management took the decision not to name it as the Orange Warnings only affect coastal areas!
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