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04-12-2018, 12:24   #16
VW 1
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Originally Posted by Cee-Jay-Cee View Post
We are supposed to travel from Donegal to Dublin on Friday at midday to go to the zoo for the Christmas lights show however I'm having doubts as whether that's wise or not given the potential weather expected. Can anyone advise whether Dublin will see storm conditions?
Given the lack of certainty on the severity weather event, and the fact it isn't for several days, hold off and play it by ear. If on Friday morning there are advisories not to travel, don't travel.
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04-12-2018, 12:28   #17
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Hmmmm....
Yeah the midlands weather channel always seems to overegg these storms considerably leading to disappointments.
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04-12-2018, 13:04   #18
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Perhaps a few questions answered here, both short term and early Winter .

What will influence our winter weather? - The Weather Studio


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04-12-2018, 16:22   #19
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The GFS, UKMO and GEM 12z output all seem to move this northward so its more of a NI / UK Midlands and northward event. Still very windy from our own midlands northward but not a direct hit by any means.
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04-12-2018, 17:24   #20
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The GFS, UKMO and GEM 12z output all seem to move this northward so its more of a NI / UK Midlands and northward event. Still very windy from our own midlands northward but not a direct hit by any means.
Good news. I can do without the BS of RTE ramping it relentlessly with a prime time special then an empty studio for the late late show with just a gentle breeze outside.
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04-12-2018, 17:53   #21
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Good news. I can do without the BS of RTE ramping it relentlessly with a prime time special then an empty studio for the late late show with just a gentle breeze outside.
RTE ramping? That’s a bit harsh given what occurs on boards and elsewhere at times in fairness.
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04-12-2018, 20:28   #22
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A split in the camp between the ECM and the other group of models . From what I can make out the ECM on this run is not showing the earlier Low develop until it has passed Ireland Thurs night , not showing any winds of note early Fri morning. This is a big departure from earlier runs so might be an outlier. It shows the secondary low Fri evening bringing strong winds for a time more across the Southern half of the country , fast moving system.

GFS, ARPEGE, ICON , GEM and WRF all showing strong winds late Thurs night / early Fri morning more so in the NW /N but they differ in strength and track and all go on to show strong winds in one shape or form later Fri afternoon/ evening but again difference in track.

For the record ICON showing a fairly strong storm move up along Atlantic coasts early Fri morning, it goes on to track near Northern coasts and move across through N UK / Scotland , brings the strong winds in across the W , NW and Northern counties producing stormy conditions gusting up around 130 km/h and more on coasts. This was roughly the track being shown by the ECM originally too, I wonder will the ECM come back to something similar . This track has similarities with what the other models are showing also . ICON showing the strongest winds but these could tone down a bit.

Met Eireann : Thursday night: Rain becoming widespread on Thursday night, accompanied by increasingly windy or possibly stormy conditions for a time as southwesterly gales develop

Friday: Bright spells and scattered blustery showers for Friday. Some of the showers will be heavy with a risk of hail and thunder, possibly merging to longer spells of rain later in the day. Southwesterly winds will decrease fresh to strong and gusty for a time but again the potential for gales force winds through the latter half of the afternoon and evening, as winds veer northwesterly. Cooler, with afternoon highs ranging 5 to 8 degrees.
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04-12-2018, 21:28   #23
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The evolution is complex, but as of now, a 975 mb low sits south of Greenland at 55N 50W. (18z CMC analysis)

Given that there's a lot of "dead" synoptic patterns in various regions of the hemisphere, this could become a near-time explosive developer and those usually don't tip their hand very far in advance. There will be a strong energy peak with the new moon timed for 7th at 07z, so I would not take this too lightly (yet).

This recent map of SST values shows a strong thermal gradient near where this storm is developing.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....12.3.2018.gif
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04-12-2018, 22:05   #24
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
The evolution is complex, but as of now, a 975 mb low sits south of Greenland at 55N 50W. (18z CMC analysis)

Given that there's a lot of "dead" synoptic patterns in various regions of the hemisphere, this could become a near-time explosive developer and those usually don't tip their hand very far in advance. There will be a strong energy peak with the new moon timed for 7th at 07z, so I would not take this too lightly (yet).

This recent map of SST values shows a strong thermal gradient near where this storm is developing.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....12.3.2018.gif
I’m no means a weather expert and I know it’s probably not very accurate but you can see that area of low pressure at the tip of Greenland very clearly on the windy app at the moment,it’s saying it’s going to stay in or around that spot until roughly Thursday it’s being fed by currents coming along the east coast of Greenland as it breaks away from that spot and heads our way it looks to be gathering serious energy
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04-12-2018, 22:50   #25
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Latest GFS 18Z and ICON 18Z now leaning towards the ECM 12Z . ICON looking nothing like the earlier stormy chart.
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05-12-2018, 01:47   #26
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You know if the GFS and ICON can't find a storm, there's no storm.
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05-12-2018, 06:35   #27
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Significant run to run change from EC.

Stormy for northwest on this run from T48hrs
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05-12-2018, 13:26   #28
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Status Yellow - Wind warning for Connacht, Cavan, Donegal, Clare, Kerry and Limerick
Southwest winds will reach mean wind speeds between 55 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/h, strongest near coasts where these limits may be exceeded for a short period later on Thursday night.

Issued: Wednesday 05 December 2018 12:00

Updated: Wednesday 05 December 2018 12:00

Valid from Thursday 06 December 2018 22:00 to Friday 07 December 2018 09:00
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05-12-2018, 14:00   #29
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quite a potent little system off the NW Coast this friday, wouldn't be surprised if there's a Orange\Red alert up there. 90mph gusts just off the far NW coast and North coast of N.Ireland
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05-12-2018, 14:02   #30
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Yes a very possible 140kph in the Northwest or Malin

.....on present charts
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