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01-12-2018, 13:25   #1
nacho libre
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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**



It's encouraging to see this given there was talk of 4- 6 weeks of Atlantic driven weather by some folks recently.



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Last edited by Meteorite58; 02-12-2018 at 19:25. Reason: Include Mod Note
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01-12-2018, 17:55   #2
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GFS 12z returning to a very wintry theme from t+216 onwards.
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01-12-2018, 17:59   #3
Snowbiee21
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GFS 12z returning to a very wintry theme from t+216 onwards.
Way too far to be getting hopes up, positive signs at least
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01-12-2018, 18:35   #4
JCX BXC
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Completely different theme to the 06Z GFS, it's something to watch over the next few runs! I'd be weary though, it could dissapear just as fast as it came.

Good signs however, the GFS obviously thinking this has the potential to show up at some stage.
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01-12-2018, 18:37   #5
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The drop it and pick it back up again scenario/theme from the models is always one to watch in winter.
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01-12-2018, 22:08   #6
Gonzo
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some wintry signals far out in FI, but with the Atlantic now powered up and charged to the max, I wouldn't be banking on wintry conditions this side of Christmas. Even if we get a shot at some cold, it probably won't last very long.
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01-12-2018, 22:53   #7
Artane2002
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some wintry signals far out in FI, but with the Atlantic now powered up and charged to the max, I wouldn't be banking on wintry conditions this side of Christmas. Even if we get a shot at some cold, it probably won't last very long.
I agree that it probably won't last long but I do see why there might be a brief cold shot. The teleconnections support a blocked pattern but the powerful jet isn't letting it happen now. There seems to be a gap between low pressures on each side of the Atlantic allowing the Azores High to be sucked up north in the charts. If the gap isn't big enough then we'll probably be stuck in this pattern for longer.
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02-12-2018, 00:22   #8
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The 18Z isn't as amazing but still seems to maintain the cold outbreak, just moving it a couple of hundred km to the east.
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02-12-2018, 14:14   #9
Meteorite58
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ECM has been showing stormy weather over the last few runs for next Friday . Track has been changing not surprisingly this far out but showing very strong winds along Atlantic coastal counties especially the W and NW , and Northern counties. Chance of being a named storm but could drift further North also. A bit of a way to go to know for sure.








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02-12-2018, 17:06   #10
typhoony
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gfs has been toying with the idea of an easterly blast then the followed by the PV heading south, of course it's all beyond the reliable timeframe but we should have reasonably clear picture in a few days time
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02-12-2018, 18:44   #11
Meteorite58
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GFS 12Z looking cold




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02-12-2018, 19:03   #12
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Big difference between the ECM and GFS out at + 240 but the ECM trending a cold air mass moving across Europe from E to W






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03-12-2018, 10:05   #13
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ECM 00z building on the colder theme as we approach Mid-December -

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03-12-2018, 22:37   #14
typhoony
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gfs 18z keeps on with cold theme as it builds a Scandi high, ecm 12z does it's best but just falls short. can we get enough cold air to the east
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04-12-2018, 12:26   #15
The12thMan
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did someone say "Sudden Stratospheric Warming " (white christmass)

http://wxcharts.eu/?panel=default&mo...10&skewtstep=0

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