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30-11-2018, 22:42   #16
mrskinner
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Skinner_____6.0___14.3°___-6.0°___90___100___DA (8.5°<--->2.7°)____No.

IMT 4.4, 4.2: Max 13.5. Min -6.8. PRC 90, 90. 20cms. 68kt.
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30-11-2018, 23:04   #17
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waterways ____________ 5.6 _ 15.8 _ -6.8_ 113 _ 94 ___ 6.5 2.0 No
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30-11-2018, 23:12   #18
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Adam240610__________6.0_14.2_-5.5_124_104_Dublin Airport Max. 7.4, Min. 3.0, No


Rest of winter IMT 4.4, 4.4, ... PRC 100, 095 ... max 15.0 (Feb), min -8.1 (Jan) ... 4cm snow ... 76kt wind gust
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30-11-2018, 23:56   #19
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5.7_ 15.9_ -5.8_ 110 _ 92___Dublin Airport Max 6.5 Min 2.2 No


Rest of winter IMT 4.3 4.6... PRC 109 095 ... max 15.9(Feb), min -8.9(Jan) ... 8Cm snow ... 70 kt wind gust

Last edited by 200motels; 01-12-2018 at 00:00.
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01-12-2018, 00:03   #20
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Rikand ____ 5.5 ____ 14.0 ____ -8.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 6.0, -4.0, yes

Rest of winter ____ IMT 4.5, 5.0 ___ PRC 90, 90 ____ 16.0 (feb), -11.1 (Jan) ___ 30cms snow ___ 80kt
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01-12-2018, 00:07   #21
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JCX_BXC____________ 5.5 _ 14.5_ -6.1 _ 90 _ 115 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 7.5 Min. 2.5, Yes, Knock.

Rest of winter: IMT 4.6,4.2 ... PRC 085, 110 ... max 14.5 (DEC) and min -10.2 (Jan) ... 13 cm snow ... 80 kt wind gust
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01-12-2018, 00:11   #22
John mac
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John mac_____ 5.4 _ 14.0 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 110 ___ Yes , Knock

rest of winter IMT 5.0, 5.4 ... PRC 102, 090 ... max 15.0 (Feb) and min -8.0 (Jan) ... 13.0 cm snow ... 70 kt wind gust

In before dropping points this month ..
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01-12-2018, 00:19   #23
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Rameire ____ 5.2 ____ 13.5 ____ -6.0 ____ 95 ____ 112 ____ 6.0, Max 5.3 Min 1.2, No

Rest of winter: IMT 4.3,4.0 ... PRC 095, 100 ... max 13.5 (DEC) and min -8.6 (Feb) ... 9 cm snow ... 73 kt
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01-12-2018, 02:06   #24
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Dacogawa _________ 5.6_ 14.4_-7.1_ 132_ 90____ Dublin Airport Max. 7.3 Min. -3.3, Yes! Knock (& hopefully some others...)

rest of winter IMT 4.6, 4.8 ... PRC 90, 110 ... max 15.9(Feb) and min -9.4 (Jan) ... 41 cm snow ... 81kt wind gust

Last edited by dacogawa; 01-12-2018 at 02:24.
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01-12-2018, 02:12   #25
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Sunflower3__________ 5.1 _ 14.5._ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 7.8 Min. -3.5, yes
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01-12-2018, 06:30   #26
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BLIZZARD7 ____________ 4.7 _ 15.3 _ -9.0_ 120_ 090 _ Dub AP Max 3.3 Min -2.7 _ Yes at Dublin AP

Rest of Winter IMT 1.1, 2.7 ... PRC 090, 120 ... max 15.5 (Feb) and min -18.3 (Jan) ... 37.0 cm snow ... 73 kt

Last edited by BLIZZARD7; 01-12-2018 at 06:36.
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03-12-2018, 01:09   #27
M.T. Cranium
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Table of forecasts for December 2018

FORECASTER _____ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 25Dub Min _ Snow
_________________________________________________________________


Jpmarn __________6.8 _ 15.8 _ --5.0 _ 150 _ 085 ___12.5, 5.5 _____ No

pauldry __________6.7 _ 14.7 _ --6.0 _ 135 _ 101 ___ 8.5, 4.0 _____ No

Joe Public ________6.1 _ 14.9 _ --5.9 _ 127 _ 098 ___10.5, 5.2 _____ No

Artane2002 ______ 6.0 _ 14.7 _ --5.2 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 6.0, --1.6 ____Yes _Knock

MrSkinner _______ 6.0 _ 14.3 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 8.5, 2.7 ______No

Adam240610_____ 6.0 _ 14.2 _ --5.5 _ 124 _ 104 ___ 7.4, 3.0 ______No

Kindred Spirit _____5.9 _ 14.9 _ --6.0 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 9.9, 4.0 _____ No

M.T. Cranium ____ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ --6.5 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 5.0, --2.0 ____ Yes _Knock

Tae laidir ________ 5.9 _ 14.1 _ --5.2 _ 138 _ 092 ___ 7.5, 2.3 _____ No

sdanseo _________5.8 _ 14.2 _ --5.9 _ 112 _ 108 ___ 7.8, 3.0 ______ Yes _Ballyhaise

200motels _______ 5.7_ 15.9 _ --5.8 _ 110 _ 092 ___ 6.5, 2.2 ______ No

DOCARCH _______ 5.7 _ 15.3 _ --5.2 _ 135 _ 090 ___ 8.1, 2.3 ______ No

waterways _______5.6 _ 15.8 _ --6.8 _ 113 _ 094 ___ 6.5, 2.0 ______ No

___ Con Sensus __ 5.6 _ 14.4 _ --6.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 7.8, 2.0 ______ No

Dacogawa _______ 5.6 _ 14.4 _ --7.1 _ 132 _ 090 ___ 7.3, --3.3 ____ Yes _Knock

mickger844posts __5.6 _ 14.2 _ --4.3 _ 100 _ 095 ___ 9.1, 1.5 ______ No

sryanbruen ______ 5.6 _ 13.9 _ --5.1 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 6.1, 2.5 ______ No

Dasa29__________5.6 _ 12.0 _ --6.0 _ 120 _ 120 ___10.0, -4.0 _____ No

JCX_BXC ________ 5.5 _ 14.5 _ --6.1 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 7.5, 2.5 _____ Yes _Knock

Rikand __________5.5 _ 14.0 _ --8.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 6.0, -4.0 _____ Yes

___ NormaL _____ 5.4 _ 15.0 _ --6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 9.0, 2.0 ______ No

Bsal ____________5.4 _ 14.0 _ --4.0 _ 125 _ 095 ___ 8.0, 1.0 ______ No

John mac ________5.4 _ 14.0 _ --6.5 _ 120 _ 110 ___ tbd _________ Yes _Knock

Rameire _________5.2 _ 13.5 _ --6.0 _ 095 _ 112 ___ 5.3, 1.2 _____ No

Sunflower3 ______ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.8, --3.5 ____ Yes _Dub A

Bazlers __________5.0 _ 14.0 _ --8.1 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 5.2, --2.3 ____Yes _J Castle

BLIZZARD7 _ (-1) _4.7 _ 15.3 _ --9.0 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 3.3, --2.7 ____Yes _Dub A
________________________________________________________________________

Notes to John mac (need Dub A 25th max and min from you) and thanks to both Rikand and sunflower3, now have your locations for possible snowfalls 24-25.

Will p.m. if I don't hear back (p.m. me your added info if you wish) -- consensus for Dub 25th max min will be reset, currently estimated (assuming John mac will want lower than consensus as he predicts a snowfall). I may run out of edit time, if this consensus proves incorrect I will note it with the first week report.

Welcome to Bazlers entering our monthly contest for the first time. This makes 25 entrants this month and so consensus (median value) is the 13th ranked forecast in each category.

8 of 25 predict some measurable snow at some location 24th-25th (most said Knock). That makes "no" the Con Sensus forecast (17/25).

The group consensus prediction for December appears to be a little milder than average, somewhat wet with average sunshine and temperature extremes (even a bit narrower range than normal perhaps).



Table of forecasts for winter forecast contest 2018-19


Forecasts are listed in order of winter mean temp (IMT) -- the winter mean temp and prc values are calculated from your monthly forecasts. If your DEC max or min are more extreme than what you mentioned for rest of winter, the DEC values enter the contest.


FORECASTER _________ IMT ______________ PRC _________ MAX __ MIN ___SNOW (cm)_MAX GUST (kts)
________________________________________________________________________________________

pauldry ___________ 6.7 5.4 5.2 5.77 __ 135 100 089 108 __ 15.2 _--17.7 __ 20.0 ____ 75

Tae laidir __________5.9 4.6 5.5 5.33 __ 138 115 120 124 __ 14.8 __--8.8 ___ 8.0 ____ 78

___ NormaL _______ 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.30 __ 100 100 100 100 __ 15.5 __--9.0 __ 12.0 ____ 80

Bsal ______________5.4 5.2 5.2 5.27 __ 125 099 105 110 __ 15.0 __--6.5 __ 10.0 ____ 79

John mac __________5.4 5.0 5.4 5.27 __ 120 102 090 104 __ 15.0 __--8.0 __ 13.0 ____ 70

sryanbruen ________ 5.6 4.9 4.6 5.03 __ 110 085 110 102 __ 15.3 __--7.2 ___ 3.0 ____ 84

dacogawa _________ 5.6 4.6 4.8 5.00 __ 132 090 110 111 __ 15.9 __--9.4 __ 41.0 ____ 81

rikand ____________ 5.5 4.5 5.0 5.00 ___090 090 090 090 __ 16.0 _--11.1 __ 30.0 ____ 80

Joe Public __________6.1 3.9 4.8 4.93 __ 127 110 104 114 __ 14.9 __--8.9 __ 23.0 ____ 76

Adam240610 _______ 6.0 4.4 4.4 4.93 __ 124 100 095 106 __ 15.0 __--8.1 ___ 4.0 ____ 76

mickger844posts ____ 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.93 __ 100 090 110 100 __ 16.3 __--5.2 __ 10.0 ____ 69

200motels _________ 5.7 4.3 4.6 4.87 __ 110 109 095 105 __ 15.9 __--8.9 ___ 8.0 ____ 70

MrSkinner _________ 6.0 4.4, 4.2 4.87 __ 090 090 090 090 __ 14.3 __--6.8 __ 20.0 ____ 68

Artane2002 ________ 6.0 4.0 4.5 4.83 __ 120 085 090 098 __ 14.7 __--8.1 __ 12.0 ____ 70

M.T. Cranium _______5.9 3.0 5.5 4.80 __ 120 090 090 100 __ 15.0 _--12.0 __ 18.0 ____ 84

JCX BXC ___________5.5 4.6 4.2 4.77 __ 090 085 110 095 __ 14.5 _--10.2 __ 13.0 ____ 80

DOCARCH _________ 5.7 4.8 3.2 4.57 __ 135 105 075 105 __ 16.2 __--9.6 __ 23.0 ____ 79

Rameire ___________5.2 4.3 4.0 4.50 __ 095 095 100 097 __ 13.5 __--8.6 ___ 9.0 ____ 73

sdanseo ___________5.8 3.2 2.1 3.70 __ 112 103 085 100 __ 14.6 _--13.8 __ 29.0 ____ 81

Bazlers ____________5.0 2.1 4.2 3.70 __ 110 080 090 093 __ 14.0 _--13.5 __ 27.0 ____ 78

BLIZZARD7 ________ 4.7 1.1 2.7 2.83 __ 120 090 120 110 __ 15.5 _--18.3 __ 37.0 ____ 73

_________________________________________________________________________

Thanks for entering this winter forecast contest. I will be setting up a thread for it soon, deadline for entries or revisions will be Friday at 0300h (7th December), post any revisions you want to have either here or in that new thread (which will appear soon).

Consensus values will be set when entries are closed.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 04-12-2018 at 21:12. Reason: extended deadline for winter forecast to Friday 0300h
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03-12-2018, 20:25   #28
M.T. Cranium
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A separate thread has been opened for the 2018-19 9th annual winter forecast contest. If you already entered here, no action required. You can edit your forecast to the contest deadline which is set for Thursday 1500h. I moved this forward to be out ahead of the windstorm situation expected Friday early morning hours.

By edit, I guess I mean post any revisions, if you could still edit your post I might not see that.

If you didn't enter the winter contest but would like to do so, enter here or over in the dedicated thread, either way I will incorporate your forecast into the table of forecasts (already created see above).

Meanwhile, the MAX at Moore Park on both 1st and 2nd was highest in the country and 13.9 on Saturday 1st followed by 14.2 on Sunday 2nd.

We won't need to be tracking the MIN for a while yet, probably, although I see it getting down below freezing overnight.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 04-12-2018 at 07:44.
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04-12-2018, 09:33   #29
sunflower3
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Apologies....Dublin airport is location for snow..
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04-12-2018, 18:57   #30
Rikand
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Originally Posted by sunflower3 View Post
Apologies....Dublin airport is location for snow..
same for me
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