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27-11-2018, 02:16   #1
M.T. Cranium
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December 2018 Boards weather forecast contest -- and winter forecast contest combined

This winter, we already have a thread started to guess the lowest temperature of the winter season. I mentioned that we also have this winter forecast contest as an annual tradition. But most of the people who enter that are regulars in the monthly forecast contest.

The first section below will be instructions about the standard monthly forecast contest. Enter one line for this, then go to part two of these contest instructions and find out what else you need to enter, only if you wish to submit that second entry into the winter forecast contest:

MONTHLY FORECAST

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) and (for 3 point super-bonus), will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website, and this will include 24 as well as 25 Dec. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations will bring in the "No" scores at 3.


Deadline for entries will be 0300h Friday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Saturday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).

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ADDITIONAL ENTRY FORM FOR WINTER FORECAST CONTEST

After you post the usual December entry (see part one above), add the following details in a separate line or column --

Jan and Feb IMT (normals are 5.3 and 5.2)

MAX for the winter season (leave blank if you think your Dec prediction is good for that) -- MAX must be recorded in Dec 2018, Jan 2019 or Feb 2019.

MIN for the winter -- once again, if your December prediction is "it" then leave blank, note that MIN can occur as late as contest end date of 15th April, you don't have to say when you think this will happen.

Then add Jan and Feb PRC forecasts (% of normal as per Dec).

Also add a total snowfall at Casement (cms) for the winter season to 15 April.

Finally predict a maximum wind gust for the three winter month period, anything that happens on 28 to 30 November is not in play.

There will be a 3-day extension of the deadline for this winter forecast so if you want, you can delay posting these additional values, or send them to me by PM. No rush on adding them, and they are non-binding on your Jan and Feb monthly forecasts when the time comes for those.

You can enter just the winter forecast contest if you wish. The deadline for that will be end of the day Monday 3rd of December. Follow part two instructions, and add December IMT and PRC. Definitions of IMT and PRC are found in part one above (basically, the mean temperature and percentage of normal precipitation). I work out from your monthly forecasts the winter averages.

Good luck everyone !
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29-11-2018, 16:18   #2
M.T. Cranium
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Let's get this going ...

MTC ____________ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 110 ___ Yes (everywhere, Knock for starters)

rest of winter IMT 3.0, 5.5 ... PRC 090, 090 ... max 15.0 (Feb) and min -12.0 (Jan) ... 18.0 cm snow ... 84 kt wind gust

NormaL __ (Dec) _ 5.4 _ 15.0 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ No (nowhere except tops of a few hills)
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29-11-2018, 19:37   #3
Joe Public
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Joe Public ____________ 6.1 _ 14.9 _ -5.9 _ 127 _ 98 ___ No ..... Dub Apt. 25th Max 10.5 Min 5.2

rest of winter IMT 3.9, 4.8 ... PRC 110, SUN 104 ... max 14.8 (Feb) and min -8.9 (Jan) ... 23.0 cm snow ... 76 kt wind gust
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29-11-2018, 21:10   #4
sdanseo
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sdanseo ____________ 5.8 _ 14.2 _ -5.9 _ 112 _ 108 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 7.8 Min. 3.0, Yes Ballyhaise

rest of winter IMT 3.2, 2.1 ... PRC 103, 085 ... max 14.6 (Feb) and min -13.8 (Feb) ... 29 cm snow ... 81 kt wind gust
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29-11-2018, 23:12   #5
sryanbruen
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sryanbruen ____________ 5.6 _ 13.9 _ -5.1 _ 110 _ 115 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 6.1 Min. 2.5, No

rest of winter IMT 4.9, 4.6 ... PRC 085, 110 ... max 15.3 (Jan) and min -7.2 (Jan) ... 3 cm snow ... 84 kt wind gust

Overall, not a particularly interesting Winter
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29-11-2018, 23:31   #6
pauldry
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pauldry ____________ 6.7_ 14.7_ -6_ 135_ 101___ Dublin Airport Max. 8.5 Min. 4.0, No

rest of winter IMT 5.4, 5.2 ... PRC 100, 089 ... max 15.2(Feb) and min -17.7 (Jan) ... 20 cm snow ... 75kt wind gust

A really cold spell in January but mild otherwise mostly. December wettest month with storms.
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30-11-2018, 01:50   #7
Tae laidir
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Tae laidir ____________ 5.9 _ 14.1 _ -5.2 _ 138 _ 92 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 7.5 Min. 2.3, No

rest of winter IMT 4.6, 5.5 ... PRC 115, 120 ... max 14.8 (Feb) and min -8.8 (Jan) ... 8 cm snow ... 78 kt wind gust

Last edited by Tae laidir; 01-12-2018 at 01:46.
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30-11-2018, 02:34   #8
Bsal
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Bsal____________ 5.4 _ 14.0 _ -4.0 _ 125 _ 95 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 8.0 Min. 1.0, No

rest of winter IMT 5.2, 5.2 ... PRC 099, 105 ... max 15.0 (Feb) and min -6.5 (Jan) ... 10 cm snow ... 79 kt wind gust
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30-11-2018, 10:27   #9
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Dasa29____________ 5.6 _ 12.0 _ -6.0 _ 120 _ 120 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 10.0 Min. -4.0, No
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30-11-2018, 12:10   #10
bazlers
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Bazler _____ 5.0 _ 14.0_ -8.1 _ 110 _ 110 ___ Max 5.2 Min -2.3 Yes Johnstown Castle,

Winter IMT 2.1 4.2 ... PRC 080, 090 ... max (As Dec)min -13.5(Jan) ... 27.0 cm snow ... 78 kt wind gust

Last edited by bazlers; 01-12-2018 at 06:39.
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30-11-2018, 20:34   #11
Jpmarn
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Jpmarn __ (Dec) _ 6.8 _ 15.8 _ -5.0 _ 150 _ 85 ___Bonus max 12.5 Min 5.5, No
No entry for the winter season.

Last edited by Jpmarn; 30-11-2018 at 21:24.
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30-11-2018, 20:48   #12
Artane2002
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Artane2002 ____________ 6.0 _ 14.7 _ -5.2 _ 120 _ 110 ____Dublin Airport Max. 6.0 Min. -1.6 Yes (Knock)

rest of winter IMT 4.0, 4.5 ... PRC 085, 090 ... min -8.1 (Jan) ... 12.0 cm snow ... 70 kt wind gust

(Max is 14.7 in December)
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30-11-2018, 21:00   #13
DOCARCH
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DOCARCH ____________ 5.7 _ 15.3 _ -5.2 _ 135 _ 090 _ Dub AP Max 8.1 Min 2.3 _ No

Winter IMT 4.8, 3.2 ... PRC 105, 075 ... max 16.2 (Feb) and min -9.6 (Feb) ... 23.0 cm snow ... 79 kt
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30-11-2018, 21:16   #14
kindredspirit
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Kindred Spirit ___ 5.9° ___ 14.9 ___ -6.0 ___ 115 ___ 95 ___ 9.9 ___ 4.0 ___ No.
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30-11-2018, 21:27   #15
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mickger844posts____________ 5.6 _ 14.2 _ -4.3 _ 100 _ 95 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 9.1 Min. 1.5, No

rest of winter IMT 4.7, 4.5 ... PRC 090, 110 ... max 16.3 (Jan) and min -5.2 (Jan) ... 10 cm snow ... 69 kt wind gust
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