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07-12-2018, 08:53   #16
Rebelbrowser
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Well still 18 days away but signs aren't great right now.....

The GFS is still two days away from showing its hand for 25/12 but the forecast for up to 23/12 is for Atlantic front after Atlantic front after.... (you get the picture). Its last frames tend to suggest the Azores High then coming to visit. Snowbie hell....

The CFS looks similar I'm afraid with a very mild Christmas day forecast. Should be dry though. This is the forecast where we say goodbye to the CFS til next November. Its the main models from now on really.

Charts below if you can bear them. Still plenty time to change at least and I note references in other threads to the ECM long term model showing signals for blocking by late December so we live in hope.....

CFS Pressure chart



CFS Temps



GFS 23/12 Pressure Chart

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09-12-2018, 10:35   #17
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Can't post pictures but as mentioned in other threads the GFS now goes out to 1am on Christmas day and shows a visit from the North Pole area to Ireland around that time... oh and it isn't the big man in red.
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11-12-2018, 09:14   #18
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GFS feeling in a festive mood this morning - a brief put potent north easterly, it would deliver Irish sea streamers








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13-12-2018, 09:37   #19
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Hard to be optimistic about anything weather related (in fact, anything fullstop!) looking out the window this morning - a truly offensive day. If its a white Christmas you are after then you can easily see how this Atlantic sourced muck might continue over the festive period but, equally, all hope still not lost by any means. Still some positive straws in the wind out there. Looking at the charts the GFS is still the only one going out to 25/12 - and it is not bad at all, showing -6 uppers over most of the country. Crudely (and I know this is not a hard and fast rule) you need -8 uppers for snow so we are not far off where we need to be. The ECM only goes out to 23/12 but to the untrained eye its chart for that day is trending ok as well with a bit of a block forming out in the Atlantic to hopefully cut off the present storm fest.

I have also pasted below the "postage stamp" view of the 0z GFS which shows 21 different permutations for the big day. They are are a bit of mixed bag - being honest you would need someone wiser than I to comment on them.

Anyway, keep the faith on this awful, awful, day.

Charts below...

GFS 25/12


ECM 23/12


GFS Postage Stamps 25/12

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14-12-2018, 09:31   #20
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Getting interesting....






The Estate of Bing Crosby could yet do very well from Spotify play royalties between now and 25 December.....
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14-12-2018, 23:02   #21
nacho libre
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The ECM is saying no to a white christmas.
The latest GFS seems to have swung towards it too. I am hoping to be surprised in the morning, but i don't think i will be. Feck it anyway
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17-12-2018, 09:18   #22
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Can't post charts but it does at least look like it will be dry and a bit cooler for the big day. In fact charts look a little odd to me (though I'm pretty limited in that dept) for the Xmas period so there is still a small chance things could be even more seasonal than that. Still 8 days away and a possible start warming ongoing so never say never.....
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17-12-2018, 11:29   #23
esposito
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Can't post charts but it does at least look like it will be dry and a bit cooler for the big day. In fact charts look a little odd to me (though I'm pretty limited in that dept) for the Xmas period so there is still a small chance things could be even more seasonal than that. Still 8 days away and a possible start warming ongoing so never say never.....
Once it’s dry and cool with temps in the 5-8 C range that will do for me considering all the wind and rain we’ve had.
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17-12-2018, 21:32   #24
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Once it’s dry and cool with temps in the 5-8 C range that will do for me considering all the wind and rain we’ve had.
I don't like wind and rain, but the funny thing I do on Christmas Day,the kids playing with Christmas toys , nice smells coming from the kitchen,I like too sit by my Christmas tree with a big mug of tea looking at the rain hitting the window.
Thinking of Christmas gone and looking forward to Christmas in the future, while enjoying the present.

But snow on Christmas Day that is just something special ,at any age
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19-12-2018, 01:00   #25
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Very unlikely a white Xmas now. Looks even 9 or 10c

And bland too.

Still at least it will be trafficable.
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19-12-2018, 06:47   #26
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Seldom do we see such a jumbled mess of weak signals, models create different outcomes from each other and from previous runs too. Nothing too exciting among them, but they keep returning to a sub-plot of turning colder on 24th then milder through the 25th. I think a little frost is the most we can reasonably expect, perhaps a stray flurry to be found in Ulster on the 24th, probably not.

There is some time left for an unexpected change to colder, when signals are this weak and out of focus, something unexpected can happen. There's quite a powerful storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico heading northeast up the east coast of the U.S., so perhaps that will shake a response out of the Atlantic. Anything new would probably show up by Thursday's model runs at the latest.

A couple of dry days without a lot of strong wind would probably be a good break at this point.

We are in approximately the same rut here where I live, every other day a bit of rain in the valleys, sleet or wet snow up higher, then a dry day but cloudy in between. We could use a few snappy cold sunny days to see if the mountains are still there or not.
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19-12-2018, 10:03   #27
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Thanks for that MT. Yeah, it looks like for the 9th year running it won't be a white one (no falling snow on our first year, 2010, before you ask).

Still it looks like it will be pleasant and dry during the main bit of the holiday period so that's a relief given the attrocious weather this past fortnight. Night frosts likely to be as seasonal as most of us get. Of course you can never say never and we will keep an eye out for any changes to the expected conditions.

My little ones will be particularly glad to know it looks like great travelling weather for the big man on Christmas Eve!
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21-12-2018, 15:08   #28
Clonmel1000
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Can't post pictures but as mentioned in other threads the GFS now goes out to 1am on Christmas day and shows a visit from the North Pole area to Ireland around that time... oh and it isn't the big man in red.
Who is it? Suspense is killing me!
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