Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
07-11-2018, 20:50   #31
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,531
So a max gust of 46 knots on 6th (Roches Point) leaves the 7th guesses in second place for now but they still have the edge with the 9th being closer to them than to anyone else.
M.T. Cranium is online now  
(3) thanks from:
Advertisement
08-11-2018, 19:20   #32
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,531
After the first week of November ...

IMT on 8.1 C which is 0.3 below average.

MAX 16.3 and MIN --5.0

PRC 159% of normal, ranged from slightly below in west, to almost three times normal in southeast.

SUN 110% of normal (659/600).
M.T. Cranium is online now  
09-11-2018, 13:25   #33
John mac
Registered User
 
John mac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: 54n,9.1w ish 23M
Posts: 4,396
Max gust at roches point at 13:00 58 Kts
John mac is offline  
(3) thanks from:
10-11-2018, 12:10   #34
John mac
Registered User
 
John mac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: 54n,9.1w ish 23M
Posts: 4,396
Malin head and Sherkin both reported max gust of 59 Kts
John mac is offline  
(3) thanks from:
10-11-2018, 18:42   #35
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,531
Thanks for reporting those max gusts, I won't bother to update the tracker from a previous post until we get another event worth noting, but the people who picked the 7th are now in the lead for the timing. I suspect the event on the 3rd may hold as either second or third place now, although there could easily be two more events that exceed 47 knots. They would have to be two separate events and not two consecutive days from the same event.

I also noticed looking at yesterday's weather that every station in Ireland had over 10 mm of rain yesterday. We could easily see the month's normal rainfall in the first two weeks (in other words twice normal rainfall to that point).
M.T. Cranium is online now  
Advertisement
13-11-2018, 09:47   #36
Jpmarn
Registered User
 
Jpmarn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: SE outside Limerick City
Posts: 960
Looking at the charts it does look like that there will be only small amount of rain likely beyond the end of this week. It looks like there will be an anticyclone building from the east over next weekend and probably persist right to the end of the month. Some chance of the monthly max temperature being recorded either on Wednesday and Thursday.
Jpmarn is offline  
Thanks from:
13-11-2018, 21:59   #37
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,531
It has been a rather mild start to November, the second half looks equally cold and the net result will probably be close to normal for the month, like NormaL needs any more points.

As a rough guide to how mild, with respect to the CET for the net-weather contest (only temperature and precip there), I calculated some running means for November to the 16th and beyond, only eight years managed to stay 10.0 or higher (as I think this November will do) to the middle of the month, out of 246 in the daily data base. So if this were to be the ninth such year, that's about 3% of the years with this mild a first half (over there anyway, I find pretty close correlation most months). Other years that were running above 10.0 in the second half were 1817, 1818, 1852, 1938, 1978, 1994 and 2011.

I just checked the daily wind gust situation and past few days not quite able to match the top two we've had so far, perhaps today or tomorrow might do so. Unless we get a howling easterly near the end of the month we'll be holding on to see if any storms can break down the block that is apparently developing. Otherwise all three of the contenders might have come and gone by this weekend.
M.T. Cranium is online now  
(4) thanks from:
13-11-2018, 21:59   #38
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,531
It has been a rather mild start to November, the second half looks equally cold and the net result will probably be close to normal for the month, like NormaL needs any more points.

As a rough guide to how mild, with respect to the CET for the net-weather contest (only temperature and precip there), I calculated some running means for November to the 16th and beyond, only eight years managed to stay 10.0 or higher (as I think this November will do) to the middle of the month, out of 246 in the daily data base. So if this were to be the ninth such year, that's about 3% of the years with this mild a first half (over there anyway, I find pretty close correlation most months). Other years that were running above 10.0 in the second half were 1817, 1818, 1852, 1938, 1978, 1994 and 2011.

I just checked the daily wind gust situation and past few days not quite able to match the top two we've had so far, perhaps today or tomorrow might do so. Unless we get a howling easterly near the end of the month we'll be holding on to see if any storms can break down the block that is apparently developing. Otherwise all three of the contenders might have come and gone by this weekend.
M.T. Cranium is online now  
13-11-2018, 23:43   #39
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Sligo 54.26N 8.46W 34M 111.5FT
Posts: 3,283
An average month can have a deeper story cant it

Im hoping for a howling Easterly or a Northerly gale to end month. Looks dry from Friday

Interesting weather in weeks ahead methinks.
pauldry is offline  
(3) thanks from:
Advertisement
14-11-2018, 17:40   #40
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,531
Updates on the Bonus Wind Max Gust Forecasts and Actuals (updated to 14th)
____________________________________________________________

closest in terms of speed so far (59) __ 59 MrSkinner, 60 (Jpmarn, Artane2002, dasa29), 58 JCXBXC


DATE _ n __ forecasts

3rd ___ 6*__ 52 to 61 knots (actual was 47) (3rd)

7th ___ 3 __ 52 (sryanbruen), 60 (Artane2002) and 68 (Bsal) knots
9th __________ (actual was 59) (1st)

13th __ 1 __ 73 knots __ BLIZZARD7 (actual was 44) (see 14th)
14th __________ (actual was 53) (2nd)
15th __ 1 __ 72 knots __ dacogawa

17th __ 1 __ 58 knots __ JCXBXC

19th __ 1 __ 60 knots __ Dasa29

20th __ 1 __ 56 knots __ Rameire

21st __ 1 __ 64 knots __ Joe Public

22nd __ 1 __ 63 knots __ DOCARCH

23rd __

24th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ Tae laidir

25th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ John mac

26th __

27th __ 2 __ 65 (rikand) and 72 (waterways) knots

28th __

29th __ 2 __ 61 (kindred spirit) and 70 (M.T. Cranium) knots

30th __ 2 __ 60 (mickger844posts) and 75 (Pauldry) knots

_______________________________________________________

* The six who share forecasts on the 3rd are (from low to high forecast)

sunflower3 (52), Adam240610 (54), 200motels (56), MrSkinner (59), Jpmarn (60), sdanseo (61)

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 15-11-2018 at 08:47. Reason: updating 14th data
M.T. Cranium is online now  
(2) thanks from:
14-11-2018, 17:59   #41
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,531
I will be updating tomorrow for the second week. By the way, just noticed a gust to 50 knots today at Belmullet, possibly not the maximum for the day around the country, so that will upgrade 13th and 15th forecasts to shared second place while dropping the 3rd to third place.

The IMT was on 8.2 after 13 days and if today averages 12 as I would expect, then it will soar to 8.5. Could edge up or remain around that for two or three more days. If second half then averages 4, the outcome will be around 6.5 at end of the month.
M.T. Cranium is online now  
(3) thanks from:
15-11-2018, 18:24   #42
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,531
After two weeks ...

IMT now on 8.5, the second week was 8.8 which is 1.1 above normal for the period 8th to 14th. With the second half of the month looking quite cold, if the IMT stays near 8.5 after today, the end of month would be 6.3 if the second half averages 4.0.

MAX still 16.3 (yesterday managed 15.7) and MIN --5.0.

PRC now at 169% of normal after another wet week, 179% of normal. With relatively dry weather in view, this amount so far guarantees an outcome of 80%, while half normal precip from now to end results in an outcome of 105% of normal.

SUN now at 94.5% with this second week a bit on the cloudy side even for November, at 79% (475/600). I won't speculate on how this ends up since, well, it's November and any sort of dry air mass can cloud up in a hurry. But it will probably finish close to normal.
M.T. Cranium is online now  
22-11-2018, 19:29   #43
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,531
After three weeks of November ...

IMT on 8.3, the past week averaged 7.8 which is 0.7 above normal (for 14-21 Nov). This still looks like falling steadily into the low 7 range but recent model output not as cold near end of the month, may stall around 7.0 for final value.

MAX 16.3 and MIN --5.0 still standing, neither looks severely challenged at this point.

PRC now 134% of normal, the past week a relatively dry 60% (near or above normal in the southeast, fairly dry elsewhere). The rest of the month looks wet enough to sustain that sort of outcome, possibly a bit lower but not much.

SUN now at 111% of normal, the past week 143% of normal (860/600). The average daily sunshine now is only two hours or so, which means that it would be difficult to come in much lower if there are breaks in the overcast from time to time.

As to the bonus question for maximum wind gusts, see the post earlier (on 14th) which has not required any new editing, the strongest gust since the 15th was 41 knots at Malin Head yesterday, that is fourth highest separate event so not a qualifier for points. Looking at the latest guidance, would say that 28th and 30th could be contenders, will of course treat any overnight two-day events as one for determining the separate events. Of the two, 28th looks stronger and could overtake first place, the 30th as shown now looks borderline 3rd place and needs to get in before midnight (the event rule will not mean counting gusts on 1st Dec even if it's the same event that started on 30th).
M.T. Cranium is online now  
25-11-2018, 22:47   #44
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,531
IMT through 24 days has fallen to 7.9, now thinking it will finish a lot higher than 7.0 as earlier estimated because 28th-29th looking milder than current average, may not fall much at all now.

Meanwhile, this is the state of play for the bonus question heading into the final few days and predicted strong winds (mostly 28th-29th). I think to be somewhat more generous on points, if anything from 28th on goes to first place, then we will include all sub-events in that final phase, spread the points out a bit wider, and keep 2nd and 3rd in the places where 1st and 2nd now are. Otherwise we could end up bouncing two of those out and technically most of the field would be then looking at zero timing points. The models are suggesting either 28th or 29th could produce somewhat separated events that gust over 60 knots, we shall see about that. And yes, I do have a tardis, kindred spirit was in it too.


Updates on the Bonus Wind Max Gust Forecasts and Actuals (updated to 14th)
____________________________________________________________

closest in terms of speed so far (59) __ 59 MrSkinner, 60 (Jpmarn, Artane2002, dasa29), 58 JCXBXC


DATE _ n __ forecasts

3rd ___ 6*__ 52 to 61 knots (actual was 47) (3rd) (drops to 4th on 27th)

7th ___ 3 __ 52 (sryanbruen), 60 (Artane2002) and 68 (Bsal) knots
9th __________ (actual was 59) (1st) -- stays first for time being 27th

13th __ 1 __ 73 knots __ BLIZZARD7 (actual was 44) (see 14th)
14th __________ (actual was 53) (2nd) -- drops to 3rd on 27th
15th __ 1 __ 72 knots __ dacogawa

17th __ 1 __ 58 knots __ JCXBXC

19th __ 1 __ 60 knots __ Dasa29

20th __ 1 __ 56 knots __ Rameire

21st __ 1 __ 64 knots __ Joe Public (actual was 41) -- 4th highest event so far

22nd __ 1 __ 63 knots __ DOCARCH

23rd __

24th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ Tae laidir

25th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ John mac

26th __

27th __ 2 __ 65 (rikand) and 72 (waterways) knots (preliminary -- max gust 57 knots) -- 2nd for now

28th __

29th __ 2 __ 61 (kindred spirit) and 70 (M.T. Cranium) knots

30th __ 2 __ 60 (mickger844posts) and 75 (Pauldry) knots

_______________________________________________________

* The six who share forecasts on the 3rd are (from low to high forecast)

sunflower3 (52), Adam240610 (54), 200motels (56), MrSkinner (59), Jpmarn (60), sdanseo (61)

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 27-11-2018 at 18:45. Reason: added 57 knot gusts reported on 27th
M.T. Cranium is online now  
27-11-2018, 18:47   #45
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,531
The highest gust I noticed was 57 knots earlier today, have edited the table above. May not have the edit function by this time tomorrow but will update from Diana's doings ... will be generous with the timing points if you're anywhere in the vicinity.
M.T. Cranium is online now  
(2) thanks from:
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet