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30-10-2018, 05:31   #1
M.T. Cranium
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November 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

1. Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for November. The average for 1981-2010 was 7.2 C.

2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS: Predict the strongest wind gust to be observed at the 25 stations (not offshore buoys or lighthouses etc), in knots, and the date that it will be observed. Seven points for the wind speed and three for the date, with second and third highest events counting for two and one point each. To score the points, you will need to be within the closest three forecasts or within one day (either or). A superbonus is available (7+3 gets 2, either 6 + 3 or 7 + 2 gets one superbonus point). Tied dates (e.g., Malin Head 62 knots one day, Mace Head 62 knots a different day) both count for whatever rank, and if 1st, there will be 2nd and 3rd added, if 2nd, then 3rd added (although it would be 4th if you follow my drift).

Points for the dates will be given to at least 15 entrants so I will make it as lenient as it needs to be to get some points distributed.

Deadline for entries, as always, 0300h Thursday November 1st, and late penalties to apply after that time.

Good luck !!
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30-10-2018, 10:34   #2
sryanbruen
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sryanbruen _______ 7.9 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 135 _ 90 _ 52 kts, 7th

Hopefully reverse psychology will work.
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30-10-2018, 15:14   #3
sdanseo
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sdanseo _______ 6.8 _ 17.0 _ -5.0 _ 115 _ 88 _ 61 kts, 3rd
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30-10-2018, 15:48   #4
Bsal
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Bsal _______ 7.0 _ 15.5 _ -5.0 _ 110 _ 97 _ 68 kts, 7th
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30-10-2018, 20:25   #5
200motels
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200motels--------- 7.8 _ 15.7 _ -3.5 _ 121 _ 92 _ 56 kts, 3rd
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30-10-2018, 20:55   #6
Artane2002
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This one is going to be really tough!

Artane2002 _______ 7.2 _ 15.9_ -4.5 _ 120 _ 95 _ 60 kts, 7th
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30-10-2018, 22:34   #7
sunflower3
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Sunflower3 _________ 7.3 _ 16.1 _ -5.1 _ 111 _ 95 _ 52 kts, 3rd Nov
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31-10-2018, 06:52   #8
M.T. Cranium
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MTC __________ 6.9 _ 16.5 _ --5.5 _ 120 _ 115 __ 70 knots 29th

Normal ________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _ --5.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 72 knots (date)*

* for the normal date, there probably is no real difference in frequency from start to middle to end of November for a strong wind event, so Normal will just get one point.

Con Sensus will be stuck with the majority opinion and ride along with that for points.

Will not be that surprised if the IMT starts out quite high at times then falls away steadily after 15th but not seeing too much evidence yet of sustained cold, just perhaps one brief cold snap where the --5.5 might come into play.
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31-10-2018, 09:06   #9
adam240610
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adam240610______7.0_16.1_-5.2_113_105_54kt 3rd Nov
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31-10-2018, 13:37   #10
pauldry
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Pauldry_____7.5_17.8_-5.7_125_101_75kt 30Nov
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31-10-2018, 17:16   #11
dasa29
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Dasa29 _________ 7.0 _ 14.0 _ -5.5 _ 105 _ 105 _ 60 kts, 19th Nov
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31-10-2018, 17:43   #12
DOCARCH
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DOCARCH _______ 7.5 _ 16.9 _ -4.3 _ 132 _ 103 __ 63 knots 22nd
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31-10-2018, 18:33   #13
BLIZZARD7
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BLIZZARD7_______ 6.3_ 14.7 _ -7.7_ 127_ 110__ 73 knots 13th

Last edited by BLIZZARD7; 31-10-2018 at 18:50. Reason: Changed my mind...
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31-10-2018, 20:26   #14
kindredspirit
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Kindred_Spirit ___ 7.4 ___ 16.2 ___ -5.2 ___ 125 ___ 98 ___ 61 knots ___ 29th.
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31-10-2018, 20:37   #15
waterways
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waterways ________ 7.3 _ 15.4 _ -6.1 _ 142 _ 92 __ 72 knots 27th
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