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02-12-2018, 18:07   #211
Meteorite58
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GFS now more on board with possible very strong winds next Fri. Will see what the ECMWF brings out in the 12Z run. ICON similar .





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02-12-2018, 18:48   #212
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Very tight gradient on the ECM 12Z for Fri



850 hPa winds

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02-12-2018, 19:35   #213
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Will see how the track and strength of the potential very windy weather for Fri looks over the coming days .





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02-12-2018, 23:56   #214
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Why is this thread still running when there's a dedicated Winter FI thread running too?
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03-12-2018, 00:18   #215
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaoth Laidir View Post
Why is this thread still running when there's a dedicated Winter FI thread running too?
This is T120, not FI
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03-12-2018, 00:20   #216
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaoth Laidir View Post
Why is this thread still running when there's a dedicated Winter FI thread running too?
This thread is for charts / technical discussion up to T120 hrs.
FI thread is for charts / technical discussion from T120 hrs onwards.
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03-12-2018, 19:39   #217
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Surprised nobody's mentioned this evenings ECM, gusts of up to 150kmh in west/northwest for friday
If this evolved as it's being shown,Gfs 12z also had a severe windstorm just to the north of Donegal bay ,would be nasty if it were to continue to drift further south

18z nudges core of the strongest winds further south.

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09-12-2018, 23:39   #218
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The Jet acting as a conveyor belt guiding LP's across the Atlantic this week . The fronts stalling and dissipating over / near Ireland as they get blocked by HP over Europe.









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10-12-2018, 22:43   #219
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American and Canadian models showing a hefty storm for Sat , ECM and ICON not as strong , showing more of a wave with the strongest winds forming past Ireland perhaps . GFS showing a storm deepening rapidly as it passes close to Ireland.

GFS has been showing a variety of outcomes with very strong winds on Sat for a number of runs now, ECM not making much of it. UKMO showing a Low but perhaps further off the coast for Sat and not as strong. ?????

More runs.










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10-12-2018, 22:46   #220
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Actually UKMO not too dissimilar to the GFS but probably a bit less wind speed on this run.







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10-12-2018, 22:55   #221
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10-12-2018, 23:19   #222
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Yea the GFS is leading the assault. The thing is the ECM has been sticking to its look of a lesser event over the last few runs also.

GFS known to overdo it early on so loads of time for change yet.

Jet charts similar between the GFS and ECM













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10-12-2018, 23:22   #223
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Until I see 24hrs of runs in consensus across several models, might as well roll a dice. They've been spewing nonsense as tends to happen when a high establishes over western Europe. The models have no idea which storms will get beaten back and which will make it over to 0W and beyond.

Working in logistics all the half-arsed storms are becoming tiresome. Serious delays to all container schedules and the costs and complaints piling up.

As extremely selfish as it sounds, we east-coast weather buffs don't mind short short term disruption to get a proper extreme event (hoping that all stay safe of course) but getting all the ill effects for what have turned out a few times this Autumn to be fish storms or western coastal events is becoming boring!
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11-12-2018, 00:20   #224
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But also remember that the weather always has the habit of creeping up and delivering when its least expected. Eerily quiet outside. If I never saw a computer model Id surmise we are getting a nationwide storm this month.

Just a hunch.
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11-12-2018, 07:59   #225
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ECM latest run still keeping to it's previous track and general wind speed . GFS this morning nothing like previous runs, now more in line with the ECM .
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